Zions Bank Salt Lake Northeast Region Officers Mee8ng Economic Overview July 28, 2016
National Economic Conditions
Readings on the U.S. economy since the turn of the year have been somewhat mixed. - Janet Yellen
National Job Growth 500 300 8.7 Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s 100-100 -300-500 13.8 Million Jobs Recovered -700-900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
June Job Growth Above Expectation 350 +287,000 Jobs 300 277 295 280 271 Payroll Change 000 s 250 200 150 150 149 168 233 186 144 100 50 0 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: June 2015 to June 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -15.6% Total: 1.7% Construction 3.4% Manufacturing -0.2% Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.6% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: June 2015 to June 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -128 Construction 217 Manufacturing -29 Trade, Trans., Utilities 414 Information 36 Financial Activity 163 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 497 Ed. & Health Serv. 668 Leisure & Hospitality 413 Other Services 71 Government 129-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
The unemployment rate has edged down further, more people are joining the workforce as the prospects for finding jobs have improved, and the employment-to-popula8on ra8o has increased
Unemployment Rate Remains Low 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.9% in June 3.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Underemployment vs. Unemployment 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Participation Declining % After Brief Uptick 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.7 62.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
Labor Force Participation Rate % 68 Among Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar 2000 67.3% 66 64 62 Apr 1978 63.0% 60 June 2016 62.7% 58 56 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Slower Recovery than Past Recessions 150 140 130 Index 120 110 100 90 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Periods from Value Scaled to 100 2008 Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
Consumer spending appears to be expanding at a moderate pace, driven by solid income gains, improved household balance sheets, and the ongoing effects of the increases in wealth and declines in oil prices over the past few years.
Yearly Wage Growth Highest in Six Years 4.0% 3.5% 2007-2015 Average 2.4% June 2016 2.6% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars
Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Contribution to GDP Growth 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 2012 2013 2014 1Q GDP 1.1% 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5.0 Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 4.0 3.0 Percent 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer Confidence Remains Moderate 120.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board
Con8nued low readings for some indicators of expected infla8on do concern me.
ISM Manufacturing Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 Below 50 signals contraction 35 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reporting data from Institute for Supply Management
Producer Price Index Remains Low 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Percent 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Year-to-Year Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
Inflation Remains Under Target 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Sept 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sept 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sept 2013 Jan 2014 May 2014 Sept 2014 Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 May 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE 3.5 Yearly Change Rate 3.0 2.5 Percent 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy
We have to take into account the poten8al fallout from recent global economic and financial developments, which have been marked by bouts of turbulence.
Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $1.05 Source: Investing.com
US Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan Inverted Scale $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 2008 China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
$1.75 British Pound Drops to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.65 $1.55 USD $1.45 $1.35 13% $1.25 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Investing.com
Business investment has been held down by the collapse in oil prices since late 2014, which is driving an ongoing steep decline in drilling ac8vity.
Drop in Oil Prices Causing Drop in Oil Production $120 2,200 $110 2,000 $100 1,800 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 $40 800 $30 600 $20 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 Oil Prices Active Oil Rigs Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration; WTI weekly averages Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs
The pace of rate increases is now expected to be somewhat slower.
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 WA 1.1% OR 0.8% NV 1.3% AK 0.7% ID 1.0% Regional U.S. Rate = 0.7% VT ND Economic 0.1% MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% SD WI 1.3% 0.3% MI WY 0.1% PA 1.0% IA 0.1% NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT Conditions 0.1% 0.5% WV 1.6% CO MO KY -0.1% VA KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% MS AL GA 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% LA 0.5% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss FL 1.2% NH 0.1% NY 0.4% ME -0.01% DC 2.1% CT 0.1% DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI 0.1% NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau
Readings on the U.S. economy Utah Named As the since 2016 the Best turn State of the for Business year have High scores in: been somewhat mixed. Economy (#3) Business Friendliness (#10) Workforce (#12) Infrastructure (#13) Quality of Life (#13) Technology and Innova8on (#16) Cost of Doing Business (#19) Major improvements in: Workforce (up 17 spots) Infrastructure (up 17 spots) Educa8on (up 8 spots) Quality of Life (up 7 spots) - Janet Yellen
Utah Population Sixth Fastest Growing in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT -0.1% PA 0.1% NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME -0.1% DC 1.9% CT -0.1% DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI 0.1% NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau
Utah Population and Components of Change 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,995,919 90000 80000 Total Population 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 15,744 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Components of Population Change 600,000 300,000 35,934 0-10000 0-20000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Sources: Utah Governor s Office of Management & Budget, U.S. Census Bureau
Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.2% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.1% Weber 1.3% Morgan 4.2% Salt Lake 1.3% Utah 2.4% Rich 0.8% Summit 1.3% Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne 2.7% Daggett -1.0% Uintah 2.6% State Average = 1.7% Juab 1.3% Carbon -0.7% Increase of 2.5% or Greater Millard 0.7% Sanpete 1.5% Sevier 0.7% Emery -2.5% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.7% to 2.4% Beaver -1.5% Piute 2.1% Wayne -0.8% Increase of 1.0% to 1.6% Iron 2.3% Garfield -0.1% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% San Juan 3.4% Population Loss Washington 2.5% Kane -1.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah s Population Continues to Grow 6,000,000 1900-2060 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: Historical U.S. Census Bureau; Projections - Utah Governor s Office of Management and Budget
Utah Employment Growth Highest in the Nation CA 2.9% OR 3.2% WA 2.9% NV 2.7% AK 0.1% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ID 2.8% UT 3.2% AZ 2.9% Percent Change in Employment for States: June 2015 to June 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.7% MT 0.6% WY -3.1% HI 2.3% CO 2.4% NM 0.9% ND -3.3% SD 1.7% NE 1.2% KS 0.2% TX 1.4% OK -0.1% MN 1.0% IA 1.4% MO 0.6% AR 1.7% WI 1.7% LA -0.8% IL 0.7% MS 0.5% 2.7% or more MI 2.2% IN 1.3% TN 2.3% AL 1.0% OH 1.5% KY 1.2% GA 2.9% WV -0.1% VT 1.3% PA 1.1% NC 2.1% SC 2.6% VA 1.9% FL 3.0% 1.7% to 2.6% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.6% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss NH 1.5% NY 1.1% ME 0.7% DC 1.1% CT 1.1% DE 3.1% MD 2.2% MA 1.9% RI 0.7% NJ 1.7%
Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1500 1400 Gain of 246,000 jobs from low in 2009 Thousands of Employees 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 800 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
UT Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: June 2015 to June 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -9.5% Total: 3.5% Construction 6.0% Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities 2.8% 3.7% Information 0.3% Financial Activity 5.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 1.9% Ed. & Health Serv. 5.0% Leisure & Hospitality 6.3% Other Services Government 1.8% 2.0% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
UT Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: June 2015 to June 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -1,000 Total: 48,500 Construction 5,200 Manufacturing 3,500 Trade, Trans., Utilities 9,600 Information 100 Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3,700 4,600 Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality 8,900 8,600 Other Services 700 Government 4,600-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Employment Change Rates By County June 2015 to June 2016 Box Elder 5.9% Tooele 4.1% Cache 2.8% Rich 0.0% Weber 3.4% Davis 2.2% Morgan 1.8% Salt Lake 3.8% Utah 5.9% Summit 4.1% Wasatch 5.6% Duchesne -11.5% Daggett 0.4% Uintah -13.2% State Rate = 3.5% Juab 2.8% Carbon -4.3% 5.0% or more Millard 0.5% Sanpete 3.3% Sevier 1.4% Emery -1.0% Grand 3.4% 3.5% to 4.9% Beaver -0.4% Piute -9.5% Wayne 2.7% 1.0% to 3.4% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 5.4% Garfield 1.4% San Juan 0.8% Loss Washington 6.0% Kane 6.1% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted
OR 4.8% CA 5.4% WA 5.8% NV 6.4% ID 3.7% UT 4.0% AZ 5.8% UT Unemployment Rates MT 4.2% WY 5.6% Lower than Nation CO 3.7% NM 6.2% June 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% ND 3.2% SD 2.7% NE 3.0% KS 3.8% OK 4.8% MN 3.8% IA 4.0% MO 4.5% AR 3.8% WI 4.2% IL 6.2% MS 5.9% MI 4.6% IN 4.8% TN 4.1% AL 6.0% OH 5.0% KY 5.0% GA 5.1% WV 6.2% VT 3.2% PA 5.6% NC 4.9% SC 5.4% VA 3.7% NH 2.8% NY 4.7% ME 3.7% DC 6.0% CT 5.8% DE 4.2% MD 4.3% MA 4.2% RI 5.5% NJ 5.1% AK 6.7% TX 4.5% LA 6.2% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.9% FL 4.7% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.3% 5.0% to 5.5% (above the U.S rate) 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more
Utah Unemployment Rates By County June 2016 State Rate = 4.0% 3.5% or lower Box Elder 3.9% Tooele 4.3% Millard 3.7% Juab 4.1% Davis 3.5% Cache 3.4% Weber 4.2% Salt Lake 3.5% Morgan 3.4% Utah 3.4% Sanpete 4.4% Sevier 4.8% Rich 3.5% Summit 3.4% Wasatch 3.6% Duchesne 9.4% Carbon 6.5% Daggett 5.4% Uintah 10.2% Emery 7.0% Grand 6.1% 3.6% to 4.0% Beaver 5.5% Piute 6.8% Wayne 8.4% 4.1% to 5.9% 6.0% to 7.9% Iron 4.7% Washington 4.1% Kane 4.3% Garfield 8.8% San Juan 8.8% 8.0% or greater Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Personal Income Growth 3rd Highest in the Nation OR 5.6% CA 5.4% WA 5.6% NV 5.3% AK 0.9% ID 3.6% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent Change in Personal Income : Q12015 Q12016 U.S. = 4.4%; UT = 5.7% UT 5.7% AZ 4.8% MT 2.3% WY -1.2% HI 4.7% CO 4.3% NM 2.9% ND -2.8% SD 3.2% NE 2.5% KS 3.0% TX 2.7% OK 0.8% MN 2.8% IA 3.2% MO 4.4% AR 4.7% WI 4.4% LA 2.4% IL 4.2% MS 3.7% MI 5.6% IN 4.8% TN 5.7% AL 3.3% 5.0% or more OH 4.7% KY 4.8% GA 4.9% WV 1.8% VT 4.3% PA 4.2% NC 5.0% SC 5.6% VA 4.7% FL 5.1% NH 6.7% NY 4.7% 4.4% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.3% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 5.9% DC 4.3% CT 4.0% DE 4.2% MD 4.7% MA 5.1% RI 4.6% NJ 4.2%
Utah Median Household Income 9 th Highest than Nation OR $58,875 CA $60,487 WA $59,068 NV $49,875 ID $53,438 AK $67,629 UT $63,383 AZ $49,254 2014 U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Utah Rate = $62,967 MT $51,102 WY $55,690 CO $60,940 NM $46,686 ND $60,730 SD $53,053 NE $56,870 KS $53,444 TX $53,875 OK $47,199 MN $67,244 IA $57,810 MO $56,630 WI $58,080 AR $44,922 PA $55,173 OH IL IN $49,644 $54,916 WV $48,060 VA $39,552 KY $66,155 $42,786 NC TN $46,784 $43,716 SC $44,929 MS AL GA $35,521 $42,278 $49,555 LA $42,406 MI $52,005 $60,000 or more $53,658 to $59,999 VT $60,708 NY $54,310 FL $46,140 NH $73,397 ME $51,710 CT $70,161 DE $57,522 MD DC $76,165 $68,277 MA $63,151 RI $58,633 NJ $65,243 HI $71,223 $50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate) $40,000 to $49,999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau $39,999 or less
4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Sept 2011 Consumer Price Index United States vs. Wasatch Front Year Over Year Change Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sept 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 United States CPI Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI Sept 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index 120.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Confidence Index 50.0 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group
Utah Median Home Sale Price Reaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Utah U.S. Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic
Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation 1.8 Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015e Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Value of $8,000 New Construction Increasing $7,000 $6,000 Millions $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total 2010 2015e 2016f Sources: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, State of UT Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight e= estimate f = forecast
Economic Headwinds Na8onal and interna8onal uncertainty Brexit con8nues to confound Con8nued low energy prices Unstable infla8on outlook Fed rate increases are ques8onable
Economic Tailwinds Utah ranked best state for business Utah economy performing well Job growth among the best in the country Unemployment very low Consumer confidence is high in Utah Housing market strong
Utah Economic Indicators 2014-2016 Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2014 2015e 2016f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
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