New Bru nswick Regiona l Prof i les H IGHLIGHTS AN D U PDATES Northeast Economic Region
New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates Northeast Economic Region Province of New Brunswick PO 6000, Fredericton NB E3B 5H1 www.gnb.ca 2013.02 ISBN 978-1-4605-0179-5 (PDF) 9127-1E Prepared by the Labour Market Analysis Branch (Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour). If you have questions or comments related to this product, please send an email to: lmab@gnb.ca
Geography Campbellton RESTIGOUCHE Bathurst GLOUCESTER The Northeast Economic Region refers to Restigouche, Gloucester and Northumberland counties. The Northeast region is the largest geographical region in the province, encompassing a land area of 26,188 square kilometers (37% of the province s geographical area). Northeast Economic Region Miramichi NORTHUMBERLAND Settlement Patterns (Census 2011) The Northeast region is home to 158,741 people, 21 per cent of New Brunswick s population. The Northeast region has the lowest population density in New Brunswick, at 6.1 persons/square kilometer. The Northeast, Northwest and Central regions have much lower population densities than the Southeast and Southwest regions. Restigouche County (home to 20.5% of the region s population) is made up of small communities, the largest being the city of Campbellton (22.7% of the county s population), followed by the town of Dalhousie (10.8% of county population) and the town of Saint-Quentin (6.4% of county population). Gloucester County (home to 49% of the region s population) is made up of a number of small communities, as well as the city of Bathurst (home to 15.8% of the county s population). Northumberland County (home to 30.5% of the region s population) encompasses the city of Miramichi (home to 36.8% of county population) and a number of other very small communities. Settlement patterns in the Northeast are diverse. Not unlike other provincial regions, there are cities of major importance, including Campbellton (Restigouche County), Bathurst (Gloucester County) and Miramichi (Northumberland County). However, these three cities only account for 23.6 per cent of the regional population. Small towns and villages are actually of greater collective importance at 30.3 per cent of the regional population. Even more striking however, is that unlike the rest of New Brunswick, completely rural populations in parishes and rural communities account for 44.5 per cent of the population. Indian reserves account for 1.5 per cent of the Northeast region s population. This settlement dispersal reflects historical patterns of economic activity built on natural resource sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining. The Northeast region s population decreased by 3,755 people (-2.3%) between 2006 and 2011. Unlike any other region, the population in the Northeast region is fairly evenly divided between those with knowledge of English only (29.6%) and those with knowledge of French only (27.3%). The other 43 per cent of the population reports having knowledge of both English and French. The Northeast region has the largest geographic area in New Brunswick and the lowest population density at 6.1 persons/square kilometer. Northeast Economic Region 1
Age structure of the population (Census 2011) The age distribution for the Northeast region is older relative to province wide data. Regional Population by Age: Northeast (Census Years) 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Change 2006-2011 % Change 2006-2011 0-24 yrs 67,130 60,540 50,465 42,590 37,470-5,120-12.0% 25-54 yrs 78,680 81,120 77,915 70,230 63,260-6,970-9.9% 55-64 yrs 14,345 15,450 18,070 23,015 27,790 4,775 20.7% 65+ yrs 19,700 21,330 23,415 25,815 30,220 4,405 17.1% Source: Statistics Canada - 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census Almost 40 per cent of the Northeast region s population is of core-working age (25-54 years). Labour market entrants (15-24 years) account for 10.6 per cent of the population, while older workers (55-64 years) account for 17.5 per cent of the population. Seniors (65+ years) account for 19 per cent of the Northeast region s population. In a province with an aging population, this region also shows a rapid increase in both the older worker and senior age cohorts. The age structure of the region is important because age affects both the size of the labour force and the size of the tax base. It can be seen that the children and youth (0-24 years) and core-working age (25-54 years) populations in the Northeast region have declined over the past 20 years, while the number of people in the older age groups have increased. Almost 40 per cent of the Northeast region s population is part of the core-working age population; however, older cohorts have been increasing while the population of youth has been declining. 2 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Educational Attainment (Census 2006 1 ) The education levels supported by the economy in this region are lower than in the province as a whole. There is a significantly smaller share of the population with college diplomas or university degrees (32.6%) and a larger share with no certificate, diploma or degree (30.8%), compared to provincial averages (40.9% and 21% respectively). There is a higher share of Apprenticeship/Trades credentials in the Northeast compared to New Brunswick (14% versus 12.4%). As is the case across the province, educational attainment is higher among younger cohorts, an indication that it is increasing over time. In the Northeast region, almost 14 per cent of the population has a university certificate, diploma or degree as their highest level of schooling, compared to almost 20 per cent across the province. Population 25 to 64 years with post-secondary qualifications by major field of study New Brunswick Northeast Total population 25 to 64 217,450 100.0% 42,950 100.0% Architecture, engineering, and related technologies 51,385 23.6% 11,775 27.4% Business, management and public administration 52,115 24.0% 8,830 20.6% Health, parks, recreation and fitness 31,305 14.4% 7,500 17.5% Personal, protective and transportation services 18,500 8.5% 4,515 10.5% Education 18,235 8.4% 3,785 8.8% Social and behavioural sciences and law 14,140 6.5% 1,945 4.5% Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 5,305 2.4% 1,280 3.0% Mathematics, computer and information sciences 9,495 4.4% 1,205 2.8% Other fields of study 2 16,960 7.8% 2,070 4.8% Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Almost half of all 25 to 64 year olds with post-secondary credentials in the Northeast region have a credential in the following field of study categories: Architecture, engineering, and related technologies, or Business, management and public administration. The share of post-secondary qualifications by major fields of study in the Northeast region is somewhat varied from provincial average data. The Northeast region has a larger share of credentials relative to New Brunswick in the following field of study categories: Architecture, engineering, and related technologies; Health, parks, recreation and fitness; and Personal, protective and transportation services. The Northeast region has a notably smaller share of post-secondary qualifications relative to New Brunswick in the following field of study categories: Business, management and public administration; Social and behavioural sciences and law; and Mathematics, computer and information sciences. The most striking differences in levels of educational attainment between the Northeast region and the province are at both the low and high end of the spectrum. 1 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be released from the National Household Survey on June 26, 2013. 2 The Other fields of Study category includes: Humanities; Physical and life sciences and technologies; Visual and performing arts and communications; and Other fields of study. Northeast Economic Region 3
Labour Market (Labour Force Survey 3 ) The Northeast is one of only two regions in New Brunswick with an unemployment rate (16.8%) that is higher than the provincial average (10.2%). The second region is the Northwest with an unemployment rate of 10.8%. The Northeast region has an employment rate (45.9%) that is significantly lower than New Brunswick (56.6%) and all other regions. Percentage (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Labour Market Characteristics (2012) 10.2 16.8 63.1 55.3 56.6 45.9 Unemployment rate Participation rate Employment rate New Brunswick Northeast Economic Region The participation rate in this region (55.3%) is also significantly lower than the provincial rate (63.1%), and all other regions. The relatively weak labour market observed in the Northeast region is likely a result of the loss of primary resource industries in the region over the years as well as limitations related to its physical location. As a predominantly rural area, it has less economic diversification, infrastructure, and demand for goods and services than is found in urban areas. Over the last six years (2007-2012), the working age population has decreased (-6,800), with a concurrent decrease in the labour force (-7,300). The only other region that experienced a decrease in the labour force over this period was the Northwest (-1,400), while levels in the Central region remained stagnant. The number of employed persons has decreased significantly over the period (-9,700), mostly due to a decrease in fulltime employment. The number of unemployed persons has increased (+2,300) and the number of people not participating in the labour force has also increased (+500) since 2007. The data for recent years (2007-2012) indicates a gradual creeping up in unemployment rates across New Brunswick, including the Northeast region (+4.5 percentage points). In the Northeast, the most significant annual increase in the unemployment rate occurred between 2007 and 2008. The employment rate in the Northeast region declined by 4.9 percentage points over the last five years, while it dropped by 2.1 percentage points for the province as a whole. The participation rate in the Northeast region also decreased between 2007 and 2012 (-2.6 percentage points), while the province as a whole decreased slightly as well (-0.4 of a percentage point). Overall, the labour market in the Northeast region has fared much worse than other regions in the province over the last six years. Employment in the Northeast (58,700 in 2012) is lower than it has been historically (prior to 2007) after taking a hit from the recent recession and sluggish recovery. 3 The Labour Force Survey data presented in this document are annual averages for 2012. 4 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Occupations (Labour Force Survey) Employment by occupation in the Northeast has some variation compared to provincial averages. The occupational distribution is reflective of the demographic and industrial composition of the Northeast region. The top occupations for employment in the Northeast region (2012) are: Sales and service occupations (27.8%); Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (19.8%); and Business, finance and administrative occupations (13.5%). The following occupations account for relatively less employment in the Northeast compared to the province as a whole: Business, finance and administrative occupations; Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion; Management occupations; Natural and applied sciences and related occupations; and Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport. Employment by Occupational Classification (2012): Northeast Number of Persons % Sales and service occupations 16,300 27.8% Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 11,600 19.8% Business, finance and administrative occupations 7,900 13.5% Health occupations 6,000 10.2% Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 4,400 7.5% Occupations unique to primary industry 4,100 7.0% Management occupations 3,400 5.8% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 2,600 4.4% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 1,700 2.9% Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 600 1.0% Total employed, all occupations 58,700 100.0% Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey, annual averages The top occupations in the Northeast region performed poorly over the past six years (2007-2012) due to the effects of the recent recession and post-recession period: Sales and service occupations lost 1,400 jobs (-7.9%); Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations remained unchanged; and Business, finance and administrative occupations lost 2,900 jobs (-26.9%). The Northeast region has the highest share of employment in Sales and service occupations (27.8%) compared to any other region in New Brunswick. Northeast Economic Region 5
Industry (Labour Force Survey) Employment in the Northeast region is approximately 27 per cent in the goods-producing sector (2012) compared to approximately 21 per cent for the province overall. Across the province, employment within the goods-producing sector ranges from approximately 16 per cent to 28 per cent of total employment. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) of all employment in the Northeast region is in the services -producing sector and when public sector employment is excluded, the services producing sector (excluding public sector) still accounts for over 40 per cent of employment in the Northeast region. The public sector accounts for a significant amount of employment (32.2%) in the Northeast; the only region with a higher share of public sector employment is the Central region, which contains the province s capital city. The public sector accounts for a larger share of jobs in the Northeast than it does in the province as a whole (29.8%). The public sector has been highlighted in this analysis to show each region s relative reliance on public sector employment (in health, education and public administration), which requires public sector investment. Since the public sector and the private sector are inversely related, regions with higher shares of public sector employment have relatively less private sector employment relative to other areas. Since 2007, employment has dropped by 11.1 per cent in the goods-producing sector (-2,000 jobs) while also declining by -17.9 per cent (-5,200 jobs) in the services-producing sector (excluding public sector). Over the same period, employment in the public sector decreased by 2,300 jobs (-10.8%). Over the past 10 years (2002-2012), employment in the Northeast region s goods-producing sector decreased by 1,100 jobs (-6.4%) and the services-producing sector (excluding public sector) decreased by 5,200 jobs (-17.9%). In the public sector, employment has decreased by 400 jobs (-2.1%) since 2002. Employment by Industry (2012): Northeast Economic Region Public sector All other services-producing sectors Trade Accommodation and food services All other goods-producing sectors Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Manufacturing Construction 2.9% 6.5% 8.7% 8.3% 7.5% 15.8% 18.4% 32.2% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Note: The All other goods-producing sectors include the following industrial categories: Agriculture; and Utilities. The All other services-producing sectors include the following industrial categories: Transportation and warehousing; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical; Business, building and other support services; Information, culture and recreation; and other services. The Public sector is comprised of the following industrial categories: Healthcare and social assistance; Education services; and Public administration. Almost one-third of all employment in the Northeast region is found in the public sector, which is the second highest share of public sector employment in the province. An additional 41 per cent of employment is found in the private sector portion of the services-producing sector. Some of the most significant industries in the Northeast (with regards to employment levels) are: Trade; Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas; and Manufacturing. 6 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Income (Census 2006 4 ) Average individual income levels in the Northeast region are somewhat lower than provincial averages. Average employment income of individuals (full-year and full-time) in the Northeast is $38,967 compared to $41,412 for New Brunswick. The Northeast region has a slightly higher share of individuals with income less than $20,000 and a significantly smaller share with incomes of $50,000 or more. Average 2005 Employment Income (Individuals 15+) New Brunswick Northeast Average employment income (total) $28,353 $24,272 Average employment income: worked full- year and full-time $41,412 $38,967 Average employment income: worked part- year or part-time $16,846 $16,676 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Average family income levels in the Northeast region ($56,033) are slightly lower than for New Brunswick as a whole ($63,913). The Northeast region has a significantly larger share of families with income of less than $50,000 and a smaller share of families with income $90,000 or more. The Northeast region has a significantly smaller share of family income from employment (67.1%) and a much higher share of income from government transfer payments (22.7%) compared to the province (73.5% and 15.0% respectively). Income from other sources is also somewhat lower in the Northeast region than it is for New Brunswick overall. The Northeast region has a higher prevalence of low-income families (8.2%), (according to the low income after-tax cut-offs 5 ) compared to the province as a whole (7.3%). This is likely a result of the lower income levels and weaker labour market in the region. Average income for both individuals and families in the Northeast region is lower than average income for New Brunswick overall. 4 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be released from the National Household Survey on August 14, 2013. 5 Refers to the position of an economic family or a person 15 years of age and over in relation to Statistics Canada s low income aftertax cut-offs (LICO-AT). The low income after-tax cut-offs are set at after-tax income levels, differentiated by size of family and area of residence, where families spend 20 percentage points more of their after-tax income than the average family on food, shelter and clothing. Northeast Economic Region 7
Major Employers (Canadian business patterns, June 2012) There are 5,658 employers 6 in the Northeast region (2011). The vast majority (97%) of employers in this region have small enterprises (1-49 employees). Less than 3 per cent of employers have medium-sized enterprises (50-199 employees). Less than one per cent of employers have large operations that employ 200 people or more. Employers by size (2011): Northeast Economic Region 2.5% 0.4% Small (1-49) Medium (50-199) 97.1% Large (200+) Some of the largest employers in the Northeast region (2011) are: Vitalité Health Network Anglophone North School District XSTRATA ZINC-Brunswick Mine Horizon Health Network District Scolaire Nord-Est 6 There are an additional 2,420 employers in the Northeast region classified as indeterminate. The establishments in the Indeterminate category do not maintain an employee payroll, but may have a workforce which consists of contracted workers, family members or business owners. However, the Business Register does not have this information available, and has therefore assigned the establishments to an Indeterminate category. This category also includes employers who did not have employees in the last 12 months. 8 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Appendix: Additional information about the Northeast Economic Region Migration (Statistics Canada: Demography Division 7 ) Since 1996-1997 8, the Northeast region has experienced negative total net migration, with more people leaving the region than coming to it. This holds true among various age groups, including: labour market entrants, and the core working age population. Among older workers and seniors, there are mixed migration results, with negative net migration in some years and positive net migration in other years. In 2010-2011, the Northeast region had a net decrease of almost 900 people going to other regions in the province. The Northeast region has had negative net intra-provincial migration since 1996-1997. In 2010-2011, the Northeast region had a net decrease of over 90 people going to other provinces. The Northeast region has had negative net inter-provincial migration since 1996-1997, with the exception of a very small net gain in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, the Northeast region had a very small net loss from people going to other countries. Net international migration in the Northeast region has been mixed over the years, with some negative and some positive net international migration. Employment Insurance (EI) Beneficiaries (Service Canada/HRSDC 2011) The most common occupations where employment insurance beneficiaries are found reflect some of the most common occupations found in the region, including: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (34.1%); and Sales and service occupations (17.1%). Occupations unique to primary industry; and Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations had significantly larger proportions of EI beneficiaries in the Northeast region compared to New Brunswick overall. The Northeast region accounts for almost half (47.9%) of the province s EI beneficiaries in Occupations unique to primary industry. It also accounts for over 40 per cent of New Brunswick s EI beneficiaries in each of the following occupational categories: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations; and Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities. The following occupational categories had significantly smaller proportions of EI beneficiaries in the Northeast region compared to the province as a whole: Business, finance and administration occupations; and Management occupations. 7 Data is based on the period of July 1 of one year to June 30 of the following year. 8 1996-1997 is the year in which this data first became available. Northeast Economic Region 9