Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

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Transcription:

Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with

Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to escape recession, GDP in 2014 as a whole is likely to have contracted for the third consecutive year, by 0.2%. We also believe that recovery will be modest at best in the coming quarters, leading us to further downgrade our growth forecasts to just 0.5% in 2015 (from 1.5%) and 1.2% in 2016 (previously 1.7%), with only a modest acceleration to just over 2% in 2018. Consumer spending was initially a key driver of post-crisis growth, but is now being dampened by difficult labor market conditions and fiscal austerity measures. We expect consumer spending to fall 0.1% in 2015, before rising slowly to grow at 2% in 2018. s export performance is also suffering from loss of competitiveness and the decline of its paper and pulp and electronics industries. These structural problems will only be resolved gradually, but the weakening of the euro should provide some boost to Finnish exporters. Export growth is expected to pick up from an estimated 0.4% in 2014 to 2.6% in 2015, with a further acceleration to over 3% a year in 2017 18. 2014 0. 2% GDP growth Risks to these forecasts remain on the downside, given the economy s substantial exposure to external trade and finance. In particular, would be significantly affected by any escalation of tensions between the European Union (EU) and Russia, as Russia is one of its largest trading partners. Against this background, it was hardly surprising that lost its AAA rating from Standard & Poor s. needs to implement structural reforms to boost its growth performance, but progress in this area has been slow due to divisions within the parliament. We expect investment to start rising again in 2015, as the economy stabilizes and confidence is gradually restored. still has a number of strengths, including its favorable business environment and highly skilled workforce, both of which provide a solid foundation for new businesses to lead this upturn and help to rebalance the economy toward new growth opportunities. 2015 2014 0. 5% Unemployment 8. 6% Consumer prices 2014 1. 3% EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 1

Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles A long period of economic adjustment lies ahead Economic activity in 2014 as a whole is expected to contract (by 0.2%) for the third consecutive year, and we believe that any recovery will be modest at best in the coming quarters. As a result, we have further downgraded our GDP growth forecasts to just 0.5% in 2015 (from 1.5% in our September report) and 1.2% in 2016 (from 1.7% previously). Structural challenges will continue to restrain the pace of expansion for some time, as struggles to regain cost competitiveness and compensate for the decline of its paper and pulp and electronics industries (the latter having contracted sharply from 6% of total value-added in 2007 to just 1% currently). We therefore expect only a modest acceleration in GDP growth in the next few years to 2.1% by 2018. A weak labor market is dampening consumer sentiment Consumer spending was initially a key driver of growth in the post-crisis period, but more recently performance has been anemic due to difficult labor market conditions. The headline unemployment rate reached 8.9% of the workforce in October 2014 (on the EU harmonized measure). Moreover, the headline rate masks a worrying rise in the number of discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking employment, which threatens to undermine the economy s underlying rate of sustainable growth. Wage growth has also slowed sharply following the latest settlement between the social partners for more modest wage increases (although this also has positive implications in terms of the economy s competitiveness). Consumer confidence has also deteriorated again in recent months according to the European Commission survey, with opinions on all four main topics of the survey (personal finances, s economy, unemployment in general, and personal threat of unemployment) clearly more pessimistic than the long-run average. This broad-based gloom is likely to reflect both the weak economic backdrop as well as concerns about the ongoing tensions between Russia and the EU. Table 1 (annual percentage changes unless specified) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP 1.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 Private consumption 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.0 1.7 2.0 Fixed investment 4.9 3.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 Stockbuilding (% of GDP) 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 Government consumption 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 Exports of goods and services 1.7 0.4 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 Imports of goods and services 2.5 0.1 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.9 Consumer prices 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 Unemployment rate (level) 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.0 Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 Government budget (% of GDP) 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 Government debt (% of GDP) 54.8 57.2 58.4 57.8 56.2 54.2 ECB main refinancing rate (%) 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 Euro effective exchange rate (1995 = 0) 120.8 123.4 119.2 117.2 116.6 116.2 Exchange rate (US$ per ) 1.33 1.33 1.24 1.21 1.20 1.19 2 EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

Although it is likely that the unemployment rate is now close to its peak, the slow pace of the economic recovery means that labor market conditions will improve only gradually. Moreover, the planned fiscal consolidation efforts for 2015 18 include higher taxes and lower welfare benefits, which will put additional downward pressure on disposable incomes. As a result, we expect household consumption to fall 0.1% in 2015, with spending growth only rising slowly to 2% by 2018. and investment is constrained by ongoing slack in production Corporate investment has also remained subdued in the light of the uncertain outlook for demand and capacity utilization levels that remain below long-run average rates. Business surveys support the view that it is lack of demand rather than credit constraints that are causing firms to shelve capital spending plans. Indeed, financing costs for Finnish corporations remain among the lowest in the Eurozone and credit is still easily accessible even for small and medium-sized enterprises. As such, it is unlikely that the European Central Bank s latest monetary policy measures will provide a significant boost to corporate investment in, although there could be indirect benefits for the domestic economy if these policies manage to lift demand elsewhere in the Eurozone. We expect investment to start to rise again in 2015, as the economy stabilizes and confidence is gradually restored. still has a number of strengths, including its favorable business environment and highly skilled workforce, both of which provide a solid foundation for new businesses to lead this upturn and help to rebalance the economy toward new growth opportunities. Nevertheless, this rebalancing process is likely to be protracted without a more concerted push to implement structural reforms from policy-makers. We therefore expect investment growth to average 1.3% in 2015, with the annual rate accelerating gradually to 2.3% by 2017 18. Figure 1 GDP growth % Year 8 Forecast Figure 2 International competitiveness Unit labor costs Q1 2007 = 0 1 6 4 5 2 0 2 Eurozone 0 95 4 90 6 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20 2012 2014 2016 2018 85 80 Sweden 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics; Haver Analytics. OECD Eurozone countries* *, and are not part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Table 2 Forecast for by sector (annual percentage changes in gross added value) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP 1.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 Manufacturing 3.1 4.1 4.9 3.3 3.7 3.7 Agriculture 3.1 4.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 Construction 2.8 2.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 Utilities 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.2 1.1 1.5 Trade 3.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.9 Financial and business services 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.9 Communications 2.3 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.9 3.3 Non-market services 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.4 EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 3

Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Exports will be the main driver of recovery With domestic demand likely to remain weak for some time, the export sector will be the main driver of economic recovery. Although exporters are currently suffering from the country s loss of competitiveness, the national agreement to limit wage increases over the next few years will help to reverse this deterioration, while the recent weakening of the euro should provide an additional boost to Finnish exporters. Export growth is therefore expected to pick up from an estimated 0.4% in 2014 to 2.6% in 2015, with a further acceleration to over 3% in 2017 18. but EU-Russia tensions represent an additional risk to the outlook Risks to these forecasts remain skewed to the downside, given the economy s substantial exposure to developments in Russia. With almost % of Finnish exports destined for Russia in 2013, an escalation of tensions between the EU and Russia would have a significant direct impact on s economy through trade, as well as indirect negative confidence effects. Simulations of the economic impact of an escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions (including Russian sanctions through the disruption of energy supplies) suggest that Finnish GDP would contract by more than 2% in 2015 in such a scenario. Loss of AAA rating should be a wake-up call Against this background, it was not too surprising that has lost its coveted AAA rating from Standard & Poor s, with the rating agency citing the risk of protracted stagnation in the economy. desperately needs to implement structural reforms to boost growth potential, but progress in this area has been slow due to a weak parliamentary situation. As the ruling coalition has only a one-seat majority, it is difficult for the Government to implement ambitious and politically contentious structural reform measures. Parliamentary elections will be held in April 2015, and the hope is that this will represent an opportunity to build a stronger political consensus on the need for progress in this area. is well placed to reinvent itself as an economic powerhouse it just requires a push in the right direction. Figure 3 Exports and external demand Figure 4 Government balance and debt % year 20 15 External demand Forecast 1997 2007 average % of GDP 8 6 Government debt (right-hand side) Forecast % of GDP 70 60 5 0 5 Exports 4 2 0 2 50 40 30 15 20 4 6 8 Government balance (left-hand side) 20 25 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 4 EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

EY's attractiveness survey 4.0 0 2.0 2.8 80 1.4 1.6 0.2 60 0.8-0.6 0.4 2.0 40 0.2-1.5 0.0-2.3 20-0.8-0.4-2.0-3.2-4.0 7.2 4.4 1.6-1.2-0.6-0.4-0...4 2.0 0.4 4.0 0.8-1.20.4 0.8 6.0 1.3 1.6 2.8 8.0 1.6 1.7 2.4 5.2 4.4 3.2 7.6 7.2 4.0 4.0 2.2 Macroeconomic data and analysis at your fingertips Learn more about the EY Eurozone Forecast at ey.com/eurozone: Download the latest EY Eurozone Forecast and individual forecasts for the 18 member states. Use our dynamic Eurochart to compare country data for the next five years. Use the trend analysis tool to compare forecasts for specific economic indicators across the 18 Eurozone nations. Eurozone Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 EY Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Eurozone Forecast September 2014 You can select multiple countries to display on the chart. Trend analysis Country Government Debt Government Budget Current Account Balance Unemployment rate GDP Private Consumption Eurozone Fixed Investment EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Stockbuilding Government Consumption C Clear selection Consumer Prices Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Select a year to compare: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Euro o EY Eurozone Forecast Winter 2014 EY Eurozone Forecast: outlook for financial services Winter 2014 Europe 2014 Back in the game Outlook for r The EY Eurozone Forecast: outlook for financial services explores the implications of the latest Eurozone economic forecasts for banks, asset managers and insurers. Our latest forecast sees improving GDP, growth in consumer spending and falling unemployment across the Eurozone. Learn more and download the report at ey.com/fseurozone. EY s attractiveness survey: Europe 2014 Growing Beyond Rapid-growthmarkets EY Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast July 2014 EY Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast: July 2014 EY s Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast provides analysis of 25 emerging economies. Our latest report explores the role of urbanization in the rapid-growth markets. Learn more and download the report at ey.com/rapidgrowth. EY s attractiveness surveys are annual reports that examine the attractiveness of selected nations and regions to foreign investors. EY s attractiveness survey: Europe 2014 finds that Europe remains the world s top destination for foreign direct investment. Learn more and download the report at ey.com/attractiveness.

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