Lafayette Economic Performance Index Third Quarter 2016 September: 99.97 The Lafayette Economic Performance Index (EPI) tracks the pulse of the local economy. Like any index, it combines multiple data points into a single score that can be tracked and compared over time. This particular index monitors 16,000 data points and 16 local statistics that together illustrate a unified story about how the Lafayette economy is performing. A few new indicators were added this year: average weekly wage, new business starts, and foreclosure rate. These additions come in the absence of unemployment insurance data that is currently unavailable from the Louisiana Workforce Commission. The index is the most accurate reflection of the economy because it is seasonally and inflation adjusted, meaning movement in the index is based on actual changes, not those caused by changes in periodic variation or time. The EPI is also retroactively adjusted to allow for a more accurate comparison between present and past performance of the economy. This allows for an apples to apples comparison of where we are and where we have been. The September 2016 Index is 99.97, down 8.2 percent compared to the September 2015 high soon after oil prices first dropped. For perspective, the EPI dropped 13.5% in only one year during the Great Recession. As seen in Figure 1, for 20 consecutive months, the EPI has been lower than the 12- month moving average, indication of a sustained trend in overall economic momentum. 12-Month Moving Average Highlight For 20 consecutive months, the EPI has been lower than the 12-month moving average, meaning there is a sustained trend in downward economic momentum. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1
Despite tougher economic times for certain industries in Lafayette, there are still opportunities for investment. Many recent projects that reflect of our economic strength and diversification. In March, ATC Group Services, an environmental consulting firm, announced the re establishment of its corporate headquarters in Lafayette and creating 50 new jobs. The company has more than 13 hundred employees across 37 state making ATC one of the largest companies headquartered in Lafayette. Next month, Ambassador Town Center will complete construction on their $130 million 60-acre retail project anchored by Costco, consisting of 430,000+ square feet. The development also includes Dick s Sporting Goods, Field & Stream, Marshall s, Home Goods, and Nordstrom Rack, along with supporting small shops and multiple restaurants. Economic Performance Index Previous Month Change Month Change- Prev. Year 12-Month Moving Average* Sep-15 108.92 2.5% -8.7% 112.57 Oct-15 104.33-4.2% -12.4% 111.42 Nov-15 106.86 2.4% -7.8% 110.48 Dec-15 105.28-1.5% -10.6% 109.67 Jan-16 102.61-2.5% -11.7% 108.50 Feb-16 99.08-3.4% -12.6% 107.19 Mar-16 98.67-0.4% -12.3% 106.06 Apr-16 99.88 1.2% -8.7% 105.09 May-16.50 0.6% -7.5% 104.41 Jun-16.71 0.2% -7.3% 103.80 Jul-16 99.50-1.2% -7.5% 103.09 Aug-16 99.85 0.4% -6.1% 102.50 Sep-16 99.97 0.1% -8.2% 102.01 Historically, Acadiana has been a hub for energy production and services in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico. Today, Lafayette has diversified by positioning itself as a medical, education, transportation, entertainment, and retail hub. Because of this economic diversification and political conditions, the current downturn in oil prices should not be a repeat of the situation seen in the 1980s. Along with overall economic diversification, *Green indicated the EPI is above the 12-month moving average while red indicates the EPI is below the 12-month moving industry will help to mitigate the diversification within the energy impact. While the local economy has diversified its industries, we are not immune to sustained pressures to a predominate industry like we are experiencing now with the drop in oil prices. Normally it would be difficult to get a clear picture of the impact on the local economy. This is why the EPI is so important, because it s an objective view of the economy as a whole, not just a piece of the economy. The index will help us identify changes in the economy and quantify the impact. When looking at all 15 indicators as a whole, the first quarter of 2016 shows continued declines in many areas of the economy with no sign of relief in sight. When all three categories of indicators leading, current, and lagging move in the same direction it means that the local economy will continue on that track. The leading and lagging indicators still look sluggish and have dropped even more since last year. Though the current indicators seem to be performing better than others, the overall group s performance is declining like the leading and lagging indicators. This indicates the strong downward economic pressures on the Lafayette economy. It will be imperative to see how the current indicators perform the rest of this year. 2
Stat tracker The Stat Tracker provides raw data for each of the 16 indicators used to create the Economic Performance Index. Local indicators are very volatile from month-to-month and changes should not be taken at face value. For example, retail sales will always decrease from December to January because of the increased holiday shopping in December. The index itself, along with the data represented in the graphs, is adjusted for inflation and seasonality in order to have the data be comparable over time. Leading Indicators: change 3-6 months before the overall economy shows any signs of adjustment Current Indicators: change about the same time as the overall economy shows signs of adjustment Lagging Indicators: change 3-6 months after the overall economy shows signs of adjustment Sep-16 Aug-16 Aug-Sep Difference Sep-15 Sep-Sep Difference New Residential Permits 87 83 4.8% 103-15.5% Laf. Stock Index 197.72 194.72 1.5% 214.50-7.8% Leading New Business Starts 189 210-10.0% 125 51.2% LA Mfg Avg Weekly Hours 40.2 39.5 1.8% 40.9-1.7% LA Drilling Permits 62 62 0.0% 112-44.6% GOM Drilling Permits 6 4 50.0% 5 20.0% Laf. Parish Retail Sales $505,187,673 $458,403,613 10.2% $497,250,379 1.6% Current Laf. Parish Hotel Receipts $8,983,047 $8,112,086 10.7% $6,064,506 48.1% Acadiana Avg Home Price $216,906 $203,874 6.4% $197,453 9.9% Laf. MSA Non-Farm Emp 205,600 205,200 0.2% 212,900-3.4% LFT Airport Enplanements 18,699 16,852 11.0% 20,681-9.6% Laf. Parish Unemp Rate 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 5.6% 19.6% Lagging Louisiana Rig Count 40 42-4.8% 72-44.4% W. LA District Bankruptcies 783 811-3.5% 789-0.8% Foreclosure Rate 0.023% 0.066% -65.1% 0.070% -67.0% 3
Interpreting data Interpreting economic indicators may seem confusing especially when dealing with local indicators that tend to be highly volatile. The month-to-month changes may not represent true changes in economic conditions. Looking at data month by month, it is clear that there have been many brief declines that have nothing to do with cyclical downturns in the economy. Indeed, if economists took every one- or two-month decline seriously, they would be forecasting a recession several times each year. One should apply the three Ds principle in interpreting economic indicators. The three Ds are: duration (how persistent the change has been), diffusion (how widespread the change is) and depth (how large the change is). The longer the weakness continues, the deeper it gets, and the more widespread it becomes; the more likely a recession will occur. The Stat Tracker reports raw data, unadjusted for seasonality and inflation. With that being said, an increase in the unemployment rate from December to January does not mean much because every year it increases due to the loss of seasonal holiday employment. In the same way, a home sold for $200,000 in 2003 is not the same as one sold for the identical amount in 2014 because of inflation. For this reason, the index itself along with the graphs in this report reflects data that has been adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Doing so enables autonomous comparison over time. Each data point has its own significance in determining the economic performance index and below describes their importance and how to interpret the changes: Leading indicators New Residential Building Permits: Building permits mean future construction; and construction moves ahead of other types of production, making this a leading indicator. Also, people buying new homes tend to spend money on other consumer goods such as furniture, lawn and garden supplies and home appliances. According to the Census Bureau, investors should look past often-volatile month to month results and study more closely the forming patterns. Lafayette Stock Index: Considered a leading indicator because changes in stock prices reflect investor's expectations for the future of the economy. The eight companies tracked for the index (LHC Group, Home Bancorp, Iberia Bank, PHI, MidSouth Bancorp, Petroquest Energy, Frank s International and Stone Energy) represent some of the largest economic drivers in the community that add hundreds of millions of dollars to parish GDP. Lafayette Parish New Business Starts: This is gathered from newly incorporated businesses through the Louisiana Secretary of State s office. New businesses increase employment and investment in equipment and structures. Increases in startup firms reflect rising business confidence and willingness to take financial risks in pursuit of profits. Business startups are associated with the vitality of industry and of the entrepreneurial spirt. 4
Louisiana Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours: If demand for production rises, employers ask their workers to work more hours and put off hiring additional workers until they are sure the increased demand is long-term. If demand for production holds up, businesses will be forced to hire more workers, signaling a growing economy. Conversely, if demand for production slows, employers ask workers to log fewer hours before laying them off. Drilling Permits: Much like residential building permits, this is a leading indicator because it represents future production, jobs and income. Because the energy industry plays such a large role in the overall performance of the local economy, it is important to track a statistic that will help predict future economic growth or contraction. 180 160 140 120 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 2: Lafayette Parish New Residential Building Permits (SA) 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 Figure 3: Lafayette Local Stock Index (SA) Base Year 1997= 280 Figure 4: Lafayette Parish New Business Filings (SA) 46 Figure 5: Lafayette Average Weekly Manufacturing Hours (SA) 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 5
300 Figure 6: Louisiana Drilling Permits (SA) 40 Figure 7: Gulf of Mexico Drilling Permits (SA) 250 200 35 30 25 150 20 50 15 10 5 0 0 Current indicators Lafayette Parish Retail Sales: Historically, retail sales are 40% of Personal Consumption Expenditures, which in turn make up two-thirds of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Retail sales are an indication of consumer spending and confidence. Lafayette Parish Hotel Receipts: Like retail sales this is a coincident indicator, in that activity reflects the current state of the economy. The importance of hotel receipts comes from tracking outside visitors to the area and the money they bring with them whether it s an individual business traveler, leisure traveler or a group. Lafayette Parish Average Home Price: Measures of home price are used in identifying housing bubbles. Month-to-month changes are not significant, but continuing trends over many months can symbolize a change in the housing market. Lafayette MSA Non-Farm Employment: It is the benchmark labor statistic used to determine the health of the job market because of its large sample size and historical significance in relation to accurately predicting business cycles. Lafayette Regional Airport Enplanements: Changes in the number of passengers coming into LFT Airport reflect the local and national economy and people s willingness to spend money on an expensive form of travel. Increases to enplanements can also signal more infrastructure, flights, or airlines which show the strength of the local and non-local demand for flights. 6
$550,000,000 $500,000,000 $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 Figure 8: Lafayette Parish Retail Sales (SA, IA) Figure 9: Lafayette Parish Hotel/Motel Receipts (SA, IA) $12,000,000 $11,000,000 $10,000,000 $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 Seasonally & Inflation Adjusted Seasonally & Inflation Adjusted Figure 10: Acadiana Avg. Sales Price of a Single Family Home (SA, IA) $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 Figure 12: Lafayette MSA Non-Farm Employment (SA) Seasonally & Inflation Adjusted 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 Figure 13: LFT Airport Enplanements (SA) 7
Lagging indicators Lafayette Parish Unemployment Rate: Considered a lagging indicator, as people tend to be out of work when problems in the economy have already manifested themselves. Rig Counts: Rig counts are considered a lagging indicator because they change 3-6 months after the overall economy shows signs of adjustment. Decisions about rigs are made in response to economic conditions, government policies, and other variables such as prices. In a business where one rig could signify thousands of jobs and tens, if not hundreds, or millions of dollars in capital investment, rig counts are a great indicator to follow. Lafayette Parish Foreclosure Rate: The foreclosure rate measures the percentage of households that started the foreclosure process in that particular month. This is a lagging indicator for a couple reasons. One, because food and shelter are necessities and are the last two things people neglect. Two, because it takes many months of missed payments before the foreclosure process is started. Western Louisiana District Bankruptcies: This is a lagging indicator because individuals and businesses tend to file for bankruptcy after a prolonged period of indebtedness. 7% Figure 14: Lafayette Parish Unemployment Rate (SA) 250 Figure 15: Louisiana Rig Count (SA) 6% 5% 200 4% 150 3% 2% 1% 50 0% 0 1,300 Figure 16: Western Louisiana District Bankruptcies (SA) 0.18% Figure 17: Lafayette Parish Foreclosure Rate (SA) 1,200 0.16% 1, 1,000 900 800 700 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 600 0.02% 500 0.00% 8
Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. Data is adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index and for seasonality using Brown s LES (Linear Exponential Smoothing) model which uses two different smoothed series that are centered at different points in time. LEDA does not guarantee the accuracy of the forecasts; unforeseeable events i.e. natural disasters and government policies can alter our local economy quickly and drastically. The index itself is a composite index that is calculated using month-to-month changes, component volatility, symmetric percent change, and a final rebase to the start year of 1997. Questions about methodology should be sent to information@lafayette.org. 9