1/1/21 Rice: World market situation and 21/17 outlook TENTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP FAO, Rome -7 October 21 GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION Despite poor outcomes in the southern hemisphere, world rice production to strike a new record of 7 million tonnes (paddy basis). A 2 million hectare recovery in plantings in Asia to drive the growth. Global paddy production and area 78 74 7 2 Million hectares 1 1 1 1 14 Annual change in paddy plantings by region Million hectares 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Asia Africa North America Latin America and Car. Others 8 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 21. Paddy production Area 14-3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 21. 2 1
1/1/21 A NORMAL MONSOON FACILITATES RECOVERY A normal pattern of the monsoon allows for an upbeat progress of main-crop plantings in northern hemisphere Asia, boosting water supplies for offseason crops. India: Weekly Planting Progress Million hectares 4 3 2 1 - Jun. II Jun. III Jun. IV Jul. I Jul. II Jul. III Jul. IV Jul. V Aug. I Aug. II Aug. III Aug. IV Sep. I Sep. II Sep. III Sep. IV 21 21 21 cumulative rainfall departure progressive plantings from long-period average Percent 1-1 -2-3 India and Thailand: Water Levels in Major Reservoirs Percent of capacity 1 8 4 2 Kangsabati (Eastern India) 1 8 4 2 Somasila (Southern India) Hirahud (Central India) Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-1 Sep-1 1-year Avg. Bhumibol (Northern Thailand) Sirikit Dam (Northern Thailand) Lam Pao (Northeastern) 3 PRODUCTION IN THE MAJOR PLAYERS India to account for much of the 21 global recovery, but the Philippines, Thailandand the United States to make sizeable contributions. 214 21 21 F 21/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World 494. 491. 497.8 1.3 China (Mainland) 141. 142.7 143.2.4 India 1. 14.3 17.7 3.2 Indonesia 44.4 4.8 4.1-1. Bangladesh 34. 3. 34.8 -.4 Viet Nam 29.2 29.4 28.9-1. Thailand 22. 19. 2.1. Myanmar 1.9 1. 1.8 1.9 Philippines 12.4 11.4 12.2 7. Brazil 8.2 8. 7.2-14.8 Japan 7.8 7. 7.7 1.1 United States 7.1.1 7. 23.3 Pakistan 7..8.9.9 Countries ranked according to their position in 214-21 average production. F=forecast 4 2
1/1/21 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE World trade in rice subdued for three-successive years. World rice trade and FAO Rice Price Index 22-24=1 Exports 3 4 FAO Rice Price Index 2 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 Rice imports by region 17 13 Africa 9 Others Near East Asia Latin America & C. Far East - 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2121*217 1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 21 217 RICE IMPORTS Sufficient local availabilities and reduced price pressure lower imports by the Far East. Currency factors and restrictive policies hinder growth elsewhere. 21 21 F 217 F 217/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World 44. 43. 43.8.7 China (mainland)..3.3. Nigeria 2.2 2.3 2. 8.7 EU 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.7 Philippines 2. 1.3 1.2-7.7 Saudi Arabia 1. 1.4 1. 1.7 Indonesia 1.3 1.8 1. -44.4 Côte d Ivoire 1.3 1.4 1.3-3.7 Senegal 1.4 1.2 1.1-4.3 Malaysia 1.1 1.2 1.2. Iraq 1. 1. 1.1 1.8 Iran, Islam. Rep of.8 1.1 1.1 4.8 Others 23. 22.9 23. 3. Countries ranked according to their position in 21-217 average imports. F=forecast Philippines: stocks by sector and retail prices 4. 3.2 2.4 1..8. Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-1 Apr-1 Commercial Stock Household Stocks Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-1 NFA Stock Apr-1 Jun-1 Retail price (Ntl. Avg.) Pesos/kg Aug-1 44 42 4 38 3 34 3
1/1/21 RICE EXPORTS Improved availabilities to allow India to retain its position as the leading global supplier of rice for the sixth successive year, while exports by Viet Nam are reduced to six-year lows. 21 21 F 217 F 217/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World 44. 43. 43.8.7 India 11.1 1. 1.7 7. Thailand 9.8 9.9 9. -4. Viet Nam 8.4 7. 7. 1.3 Pakistan 4.1 4.4 4. 2.3 United States 3.4 3. 3.7.8 Myanmar 1.7 1. 1. -.3 Cambodia 1.2 1.3 1.3 4. Brazil.9.8.7-13.3 Uruguay.7.9.9 -. Guyana... -4. Others 2.8 3.2 3. -. Countries ranked according to their position in 21-217 average exports. F=forecast Viet Nam: Rice Exports by Region 12 9 3 211 212 213 214 21 21 Jan-Jul Asia Africa Americas Others 21 Jan-Jul 7 GLOBAL RICE UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Draw-downs in the major exporters behind a slight contraction in carryovers, but world rice reserves to remain adequate. 22 Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Utilization (right axis) 18 2 49 Global Closing Stocks and Stocks-to-use Ratio 2 1 Percent 4 32 14 4 12 24 1 43 8 1 4 4 8 2 37 2/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/1 21/17 27/8 21/11 213/14 21/17 Rest of the world Major rice exporters China, Mainland World stocks-to-use-ratio 8 4
1/1/21 MAJOR EXPORTERS STOCKS To decline for the third successive year, but much will depend on the success of Thai Government stock release plans. Stocks held by the major rice exporters and stocksto-disappearance ratio Percent 3 4 24 Thailand: Public Rice Stock Auctions (Aug/214-Aug/21) 4. 1. Volumes offered (left axis) Volumes awarded (left axis) Cumulative releases (right axis) 3. 7. 3 18 2.. 2 12 1 1. 2. - 2-7 28-9 21-11 212-13 214-1 21-17 India Thailand Viet Nam United States Pakistan Stock-to-disappearance. Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1. 9 INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES Resume their downward trajectory in August, on a combination of thin buying interest and prospects of larger availabilities from imminent crop harvests. High Quality Indica Prices US$/tonne 4 4 3 3 US 2/4% Thai 1% B Pak Irri % Viet % India IR % FAO Rice Price Indices 22-24= 1 3 Indica: High Quality Indica: Low Quality 3 Japonica Aromatic 2 2 1 1 2 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 22 24 2 28 21 212 214 21* *Jan-Sepaverage 1
1/1/21 UNCERTAINTIES Weather Although we have passed the most critical stage of the season, weather events (such as La Niña, storms, etc.) could still affect the outcome of 21 secondary crops in the northern hemisphere and of 217 main-crops in the southern hemisphere Policies In major exporters: public stocks releases in Thailand and India In major importing countries: China (border protection), Indonesia, Nigeria (self-sufficiency) and the Philippines (tariffication?) Macro-economic factors Exchange rates Oil prices, etc. Developments in other cereal markets 11 Thank You 12