Sensex (35038) / Nifty (10589) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Amidst negative news of the INR hitting its lifetime lows, the Nifty index started the session marginally negative. Although the index did attempt a pullback during the initial hour of the day the selling in the broader market was strong enough to drag the index lower to breach the 10600 mark as well. As we had mentioned in our yesterday's article, the index had crucial support in the range of 10650-10700 which was breached yesterday on a closing basis. This certainly turns the short term trend negative post the recent consolidation phase. As per the role reversal in technical analysis, any important support once breached turns into resistance and hence, 10700 would now be seen as resistance on pullback move. On the flipside, the initial support for the index is placed around 10550, which if breached, could extend the correction towards the '200 SMA' on the daily chart which is placed around 10440. Hence, traders are advised to avoid taking any aggressive bets and trade with a proper money management strategy. Key Levels Support 1 10550 Resistance 1 10650 Support 2 10500 Resistance 2 10700 Nifty Bank Outlook - (26325) The Nifty Bank index opened on a flat note in yesterday's session. Amidst a broad market sell-off, the Nifty Bank index too corrected during the day and sneaked below 26200. However, a pullback move in the index heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank led to some recovery in the last hour and it ended the day with a loss of about 100 points. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart In last few trading sessions, the Nifty Bank index has traded in a narrow range as the fall in stocks such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have been balanced by the strength in stocks such as HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and IndusInd Bank. On the flipside, the midcaps and the PSU names have seen sharp correction along with the broader market. This indicates that while the index has consolidated, there have been stock specific moves within the sector. Since last few days, we have been advising to take a stock specific approach and since the index has still not given any clear indications of a directional move, traders are advised to continue with the same approach to the banking names. The near-term supports for the Nifty Bank index are placed around 26160 and 26069 whereas resistances are seen around 26485 and 26680. Key Levels Support 1 26225 Resistance 1 26485 Support 2 26069 Resistance 2 26680
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 33.31% BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 24.59% as market closed at 10589.10 levels. The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 18.00 points against a discount of 4.50 points in last trading session. The August series closed at a premium of 3.45 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 13.51 to 13.95. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty increased from 1.33 to 1.43 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are SUZLON, IFCI, ADANIPOWER, PNB and SYNDIBANK. Nifty Vs Views FIIs continue to sell in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 952 crores. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 2694 crores in index futures with meaningful fall in open interest, mainly due to expiry. In index options front, they bought of Rs. 6628 crores with fall in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are concerned, being start of new series the build-up is scattered between 10500-11200 call and 10000-10600 put options. Now, the maximum open interest concentration for July series is placed at 11000 followed by 10800 call and in case of put options is visible at 10600 followed by 10200 strike. Similar to the previous session, once again our market opened on a flat note backed by mixed global cues. This was followed by strong selling pressure for the second consecutive day, index slipped below 10600 mark and eventually concluded June series 1.37% lower. Looking at last two days fall, we believe most of the longs in index futures have been lightened up; whereas, decent amount of shorts are still in system. As a result, Nifty rollover jumped up to 64%, which is on the higher side. In index futures segment, FIIs added short positions throughout the series and also rolled some of them. Now index futures Long Short Ratio stands at 35%, hinting FIIs once again hold majority of short in the coming series. Considering the above data points, we would advise traders avoiding aggressive longs for the time being. Gainers PNB 82227000 0.80 76.75-4.06 SRTRANSFIN 4171800 2.36 1374.80-4.63 Losers ADANIPORTS 15857500 0.76 361.10-0.74 OFSS 88050 0.69 4053.85-0.36 TORNTPOWER 2907000 1.36 219.95-3.70 MRPL 11560500-8.87 87.00-3.65 SRF 1158000-4.14 1653.35-2.20 INFRATEL 8086900 7.72 299.55 2.17 INDIANB 3618000-1.63 347.25-1.34 KPIT 6727500-0.13 274.55 0.50 Historical Volatility HV NHPC 23.51 TECHM 31.85 CHOLAFIN 30.67 MRPL 40.07 JISLJALEQS 43.54 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.33 0.82 BANKNIFTY 0.76 0.93 TATAMOTORS 0.32 0.41 RELIANCE 0.39 0.49 ICICIBANK 0.50 0.56
FII Statistics for June 28, 2018 Turnover on June 28, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 7493.42 10187.71 (2694.29) 211239 16917.14 (36.23) 147562.00 140934.37 6627.63 575202 47390.46 (35.49) 35256.98 33821.81 1435.17 1109642 75867.09 (7.13) 5487.17 5098.20 388.97 5645 399.72 (96.00) Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 565927 49192.61 24.30 17595917 1692782.27 64.26 2353441 150042.20 15.72 894642 63838.43-1.92 Total 195799.57 190042.09 5757.49 1901728 140574.41 (25.68) TOTAL 21409927 1955855.51 54.63 Nifty Spot = 10589.10 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10600 138.40 Sell 10700 92.65 45.75 54.25 10645.75 Buy 10600 165.50 Sell 10500 123.15 42.35 57.65 10557.65 Buy 10600 138.40 Sell 10800 57.15 81.25 118.75 10681.25 Buy 10600 165.50 Sell 10400 91.05 74.45 125.55 10525.55 Buy 10700 92.65 Sell 10800 57.15 35.50 64.50 10735.50 Buy 10500 123.15 Sell 10400 91.05 32.10 67.90 10467.90 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 355 358 361 365 368 ASIANPAINT 1,241 1,254 1,264 1,278 1,287 AXISBANK 494 499 506 512 519 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,656 2,686 2,735 2,766 2,815 BAJFINANCE 2,198 2,236 2,292 2,331 2,386 BAJAJFINSV 5,643 5,745 5,863 5,965 6,083 BPCL 350 359 372 380 394 BHARTIARTL 363 371 376 383 389 INFRATEL 291 295 297 301 303 CIPLA 588 595 602 609 616 COALINDIA 254 257 262 265 270 DRREDDY 2,244 2,270 2,298 2,324 2,352 EICHERMOT 27,444 27,935 28,242 28,733 29,041 GAIL 310 315 321 325 331 GRASIM 973 988 1,005 1,020 1,037 HCLTECH 890 900 915 925 940 HDFCBANK 2,099 2,115 2,127 2,144 2,156 HDFC 1,838 1,858 1,886 1,906 1,933 HEROMOTOCO 3,439 3,478 3,514 3,553 3,589 HINDALCO 213 217 220 224 226 HINDPETRO 249 255 265 271 281 HINDUNILVR 1,582 1,592 1,606 1,617 1,631 IBULHSGFIN 1,074 1,106 1,149 1,180 1,224 ICICIBANK 265 268 273 277 282 IOC 144 149 155 160 165 INDUSINDBK 1,927 1,947 1,969 1,989 2,010 INFY 1,266 1,278 1,288 1,300 1,310 ITC 256 258 261 263 266 KOTAKBANK 1,296 1,318 1,334 1,355 1,372 LT 1,193 1,214 1,227 1,248 1,261 LUPIN 868 883 896 911 925 M&M 879 893 906 920 932 MARUTI 8,641 8,706 8,800 8,865 8,959 NTPC 146 151 155 160 163 ONGC 148 151 155 157 161 POWERGRID 180 182 186 188 191 RELIANCE 923 934 951 962 979 SBIN 252 254 258 261 265 SUNPHARMA 553 560 572 579 591 TCS 1,802 1,822 1,847 1,867 1,891 TATAMOTORS 255 259 266 270 277 TATASTEEL 537 543 550 555 562 TECHM 619 642 682 704 744 TITAN 807 822 845 860 883 ULTRACEMCO 3,631 3,676 3,731 3,776 3,830 UPL 591 599 612 620 634 VEDANTA 227 228 231 233 235 WIPRO 254 256 257 259 261 YESBANK 322 326 331 335 340 ZEEL 525 532 543 550 560
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