DRAFT MEMORANDUM -- D RAFT M EMORANDUM To: From: NSC Committee James R. Musbach and Garrett K. Gray Subject: Nevada State College Financing Program; EPS #18067 Date: April 8, 2009 Introduction Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) has constructed a financial model that measures the feasibility of alternative development programs and estimates the land values and revenues that can be generated by development of the site, both from lease and/or sale of land for private uses, and from tax increment generated by that development. The purpose of the Financial Feasibility model is to test the financial implications of alternative land use programs, development strategies, infrastructure phasing schemes, infrastructure financing strategies, and other issues associated with the development and financing of the Nevada State College Campus, and the adjoining City-owned Town Center. Model Structure The financial model projects future revenues and expenditures over the course of the buildout of both the private development component and the campus component of the Henderson NSC site, as well as the adjacent City-owned Town Center site. In this preliminary set of model runs, EPS has distinguished between the Nevada State College (NSC) site and the envisioned Town Center site regarding the land development program and evaluated the financial parameters of each component, as well as both sites combined. The initial runs of the model reflect a master-developer scenario, and approach the feasibility of the financing plan from this perspective. Alternative development and disposition strategies can be tested, based on further discussion with NSC and the City of Henderson regarding their objectives, resources and preferred management roles and responsibilities, as well as consideration of developer interests and capabilities.
DRAFT MEMORANDUM -- Draft Memorandum April 8, 2009 Nevada State College Financing Program Page 2 The basic structure of the model consists of two primary components: 1) vertical development pro formas for each land use and product type and 2) a land development pro forma. The vertical pro formas estimate the price (or lease rate) that developers could pay for the land for different uses and product types. The land development model uses these land values as the revenue inputs available to a private developer, and then provides a cash flow analysis of the phased construction of infrastructure, paid for from land disposition, tax increment, and developer equity investment. To be feasible, the program must be able to fund all of the infrastructure and provide a market rate return to the developer on equity invested. Net Present Value above that return represents positive land value that could be captured to fund buildings or other campus facilities. The content of the attached tables is summarized briefly below. Table 1 provides a summary of the preliminary development concept and the respective revenues and expenditures for the NSC and Town Center sites. For this preliminary model, it is assumed that infrastructure will begin to be constructed in 2010, with a time-line for completion of 20 years. The product-types are assumed to enter the market in 2012 with a time-line for build-out of 12 years. Further, potential revenues from the TIF District and other Public Financing sources are also anticipated to be included in the model, although values for these sources are yet-to-be-determined. Table 2 provides a brief synopsis of the proposed land program for the NSC and Town Center sites. This proposed program is based on the findings from the EPS Henderson Market Study and the overall concept for the NSC campus and associated Town Center. As the current Land Program shows, there are approximately 115 net acres anticipated for the NSC site and 76 net acres for the Town Center site, accounting for 191 net acres overall. The land programs are fairly equal in distribution between the specific residential and commercial product types, with each residential type accounting for approximately one-third of the total residential land to be developed, with a limited mix of office and retail space integrated into each site. Table 3 summarizes the projected development schedule for the product types anticipated for the NSC and Town Center site. The preliminary development schedule estimated by EPS is guided by information obtained from the Henderson market analysis and the projected absorption rates, as well as economic strategies such as initially producing product types with greater capacity to generate revenues while generating capital for subsequent phases of the land development program, within established thresholds. Based on this research and analysis, EPS has estimated that residential absorption will potentially be up to 10 percent of Henderson s anticipated annual household growth and housing unit absorption rates, which is currently projected to be approximately 4,000 units per year. This allows for the land development programs to be achieved within approximately 12 years. Table 4 provides a summary of the on-site projected infrastructure costs for the entire program. The infrastructure plan is envisioned as serving both the private development of the NSC and Town Center sites, as well as the campus as it develops. The estimated infrastructure costs include utilities, transportation, site preparation, and other necessary items. For this model, it was assumed that only the on-site costs for the NSC and Town Center sites were to be included, while other off-site infrastructure items, such as freeway widening and interchanges, were excluded. These cost estimates have been prepared by ARUP, the project engineers. Initial phasing estimates were made by EPS, consistent with project absorption, but further analysis of infrastructure phasing relative to both campus and private development buildout is needed. P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067mm040709.doc
DRAFT MEMORANDUM -- Draft Memorandum April 8, 2009 Nevada State College Financing Program Page 3 Table 5 provides a summary of the projected infrastructure cost allocation for the NSC and Town Center sites based on the gross total infrastructure costs estimated for the entire site. This projected allocation of infrastructure costs is proportionally delegated based on the anticipated net acres available for development. In the current land program, the NSC site accounts for 115 developable net acres, approximately 60 percent of the combined net developable acreage, while the Town Center site accounts for 76 net acres of development, or about 40 percent of the combined net developable acreage. Tables 6 through 10 present the vertical pro formas and the estimated Residual Land Values (RLVs) for each of the proposed product types. These product types include a mix of residential and commercial product types, including single-family homes, townhomes, and apartments; and office and retail space. The RLVs were determined through market research of the direct and indirect costs (including City/County/Regional fees), the estimated revenues achievable per product type, and other comparable land values for the respective product types. It is important to note that certain product types do not currently achieve positive RLVs because of the deflated residential market. However, it is anticipated that this market will recover and that RLVs for single-family housing will more closely align with the current comparable land values. In this model, it is assumed that the market will stabilize near the end of 2009/beginning of 2010, and then proceed to steadily recover the value that has recently been lost. EPS has assumed an accelerated recovery for single-family units and townhomes within the specific NSC and Town Center site micro-markets for a few particular reasons. Most notably, it is extremely rare for homes in the Las Vegas Valley to possess comparable city views, location, accessibility, and design as is envisioned for the homes on the NSC site. P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067mm040709.doc
Table of Contents Nevada State College Feasibility DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Table Title 1 NSC Feasibility Model (nominal $$) 2 Land Planning Program for NSC Campus and Town Center 3 Development Schedule (Units and Square Feet) 4 Conceptual NSC & Town Center On-Site Full Cost Estimates (2009 $'s) 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (Nominal $'s) 6 10 Dwelling Units per Acre NSC Development Residual Land Value 7 20 Dwelling Units per Acre NSC Development Residual Land Value 8 30 Dwelling Units per Acre NSC Development Residual Land Value 9 Office Development Residual Land Value 10 Retail Development Residual Land Value Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 NSC Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NSC Revenues Residential Land Ground Leases Low-Density 3.0% annual growth $22,715,845 $0 $0 $2,196,318 $2,262,207 $2,330,074 $2,999,970 $3,089,969 $3,182,668 $3,278,148 $3,376,492 $0 Mid-Density 3.0% annual growth $16,008,050 $0 $0 $1,469,434 $1,135,138 $1,169,192 $1,204,268 $1,240,396 $1,277,608 $1,315,936 $1,355,414 $1,396,077 High-Density 3.0% annual growth $20,061,297 $0 $0 $1,868,825 $1,924,890 $1,982,637 $1,531,587 $1,577,535 $1,624,861 $1,673,606 $1,723,815 $1,775,529 Subtotal $58,785,192 $0 $0 $5,534,577 $5,322,235 $5,481,902 $5,735,825 $5,907,899 $6,085,136 $6,267,690 $6,455,721 $3,171,606 Commercial Land Ground Leases Office 3.0% annual growth $2,409,877 $0 $0 $1,098,368 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,311,509 $0 $0 Retail 3.0% annual growth $3,440,306 $0 $0 $1,568,015 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,872,291 $0 $0 Subtotal $5,850,183 $0 $0 $2,666,383 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,183,800 $0 $0 Total Land Sales (inflated) $64,635,375 $0 $0 $8,200,960 $5,322,235 $5,481,902 $5,735,825 $5,907,899 $6,085,136 $9,451,491 $6,455,721 $3,171,606 NSC Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $9,752,417 $2,649,215 $0 $0 $818,607 $0 $0 $894,514 $0 $0 $977,460 $0 Storm Drainage $7,054,375 $1,875,323 $0 $0 $596,859 $0 $0 $652,204 $0 $0 $712,681 $0 Central Plant Facility $13,136,358 $3,492,147 $0 $0 $1,111,445 $0 $0 $1,214,507 $0 $0 $1,327,124 $0 Recycled Water Connection $3,397,334 $903,141 $0 $0 $287,443 $0 $0 $314,097 $0 $0 $343,222 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements $15,684,359 $4,169,503 $0 $0 $1,327,028 $0 $0 $1,450,079 $0 $0 $1,584,540 $0 Direct Cost Contingency 20.0% of direct costs $9,804,969 $2,617,866 $0 $0 $828,276 $0 $0 $905,080 $0 $0 $989,005 $0 Direct Costs Total $58,829,813 $15,707,194 $0 $0 $4,969,659 $0 $0 $5,430,480 $0 $0 $5,934,032 $0 Ground Lease (1) $0 $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5.0% of direct costs $2,941,491 $785,360 $0 $0 $248,483 $0 $0 $271,524 $0 $0 $296,702 $0 Project Management 3.0% of direct costs $1,764,894 $471,216 $0 $0 $149,090 $0 $0 $162,914 $0 $0 $178,021 $0 General Administration 2.0% of direct costs $1,176,596 $314,144 $0 $0 $99,393 $0 $0 $108,610 $0 $0 $118,681 $0 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $882,447 $235,608 $0 $0 $74,545 $0 $0 $81,457 $0 $0 $89,010 $0 Financing and Charges 0.0% of direct costs $0 $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0.0% of indirect costs $0 $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $6,765,428 $1,806,327 $0 $0 $571,511 $0 $0 $624,505 $0 $0 $682,414 $0 Total NSC Uses Expenditures $65,595,241 $17,513,521 $0 $0 $5,541,169 $0 $0 $6,054,985 $0 $0 $6,616,446 $0 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($959,866) ($17,513,521) $0 $8,200,960 ($218,934) $5,481,902 $5,735,825 ($147,086) $6,085,136 $9,451,491 ($160,725) $3,171,606 IRR 12.6% NPV (at 15%) 15% ($990,700) Public Financing State Grants --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Tax Increment Financing --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenues (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 1 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 NSC Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 NSC Revenues Residential Land Ground Leases Low-Density 3.0% annual growth $22,715,845 Mid-Density 3.0% annual growth $16,008,050 High-Density 3.0% annual growth $20,061,297 Subtotal $58,785,192 Commercial Land Ground Leases Office 3.0% annual growth $2,409,877 Retail 3.0% annual growth $3,440,306 Subtotal $5,850,183 Total Land Sales (inflated) $64,635,375 $1,437,959 $1,481,098 $1,525,531 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,828,795 $1,255,772 $1,293,446 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,266,754 $2,736,870 $2,818,976 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,266,754 $2,736,870 $2,818,976 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 NSC Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $9,752,417 Storm Drainage $7,054,375 Central Plant Facility $13,136,358 Recycled Water Connection $3,397,334 Road Infrastructure Improvements $15,684,359 Direct Cost Contingency 20.0% of direct costs $9,804,969 Direct Costs Total $58,829,813 Ground Lease (1) $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5.0% of direct costs $2,941,491 Project Management 3.0% of direct costs $1,764,894 General Administration 2.0% of direct costs $1,176,596 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $882,447 Financing and Charges 0.0% of direct costs $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0.0% of indirect costs $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $6,765,428 Total NSC Uses Expenditures $65,595,241 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($959,866) IRR 12.6% NPV (at 15%) 15% ($990,700) Public Financing State Grants --- Tax Increment Financing --- $0 $1,068,097 $0 $0 $1,167,138 $0 $0 $1,275,364 $0 $902,022 $0 $778,766 $0 $0 $850,978 $0 $0 $929,887 $0 $657,678 $0 $1,450,184 $0 $0 $1,584,656 $0 $0 $1,731,596 $0 $1,224,700 $0 $375,048 $0 $0 $409,825 $0 $0 $447,827 $0 $316,733 $0 $1,731,470 $0 $0 $1,892,024 $0 $0 $2,067,466 $0 $1,462,250 $0 $1,080,713 $0 $0 $1,180,924 $0 $0 $1,290,428 $0 $912,677 $0 $6,484,277 $0 $0 $7,085,545 $0 $0 $7,742,566 $0 $5,476,059 $0 $324,214 $0 $0 $354,277 $0 $0 $387,128 $0 $273,803 $0 $194,528 $0 $0 $212,566 $0 $0 $232,277 $0 $164,282 $0 $129,686 $0 $0 $141,711 $0 $0 $154,851 $0 $109,521 $0 $97,264 $0 $0 $106,283 $0 $0 $116,138 $0 $82,141 $0 $745,692 $0 $0 $814,838 $0 $0 $890,395 $0 $629,747 $0 $7,229,969 $0 $0 $7,900,383 $0 $0 $8,632,961 $0 $6,105,806 $3,266,754 ($4,493,099) $2,818,976 $0 ($7,900,383) $0 $0 ($8,632,961) $0 ($6,105,806) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenues (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 2 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 Town Center Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Town Center Revenues Residential Land Sales Low-Density 3.0% annual growth $13,827,357 $0 $0 $2,196,318 $0 $4,660,147 $1,799,982 $1,235,988 $1,273,067 $1,311,259 $1,350,597 $0 Mid-Density 3.0% annual growth $9,800,168 $0 $0 $1,102,076 $0 $1,558,923 $802,845 $826,931 $851,739 $877,291 $903,609 $930,718 High-Density 3.0% annual growth $12,968,990 $0 $0 $1,245,884 $0 $2,643,516 $1,021,058 $1,051,690 $1,083,240 $1,115,738 $1,149,210 $1,183,686 Subtotal $36,596,516 $0 $0 $4,544,277 $0 $8,862,586 $3,623,885 $3,114,608 $3,208,046 $3,304,287 $3,403,416 $2,114,404 Commercial Land Leases Office 3.0% annual growth $2,263,627 $0 $0 $1,098,368 $0 $1,165,259 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Retail 3.0% annual growth $1,908,964 $0 $0 $1,908,964 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Subtotal $4,172,590 $0 $0 $3,007,332 $0 $1,165,259 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Land Sales $40,769,106 $0 $0 $7,551,609 $0 $10,027,844 $3,623,885 $3,114,608 $3,208,046 $3,304,287 $3,403,416 $2,114,404 Town Center Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $6,445,076 $1,750,785 $0 $0 $540,993 $0 $0 $591,157 $0 $0 $645,974 $0 Storm Drainage $4,662,022 $1,239,344 $0 $0 $394,446 $0 $0 $431,022 $0 $0 $470,989 $0 Central Plant Facility $8,681,419 $2,307,853 $0 $0 $734,521 $0 $0 $802,630 $0 $0 $877,056 $0 Recycled Water Connection $2,245,195 $596,859 $0 $0 $189,962 $0 $0 $207,577 $0 $0 $226,825 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements $10,365,315 $2,755,497 $0 $0 $876,992 $0 $0 $958,313 $0 $0 $1,047,174 $0 Direct Cost Contingency 20.0% of direct costs $6,479,805 $1,730,068 $0 $0 $547,383 $0 $0 $598,140 $0 $0 $653,604 $0 Direct Costs Total $38,878,833 $10,380,406 $0 $0 $3,284,296 $0 $0 $3,588,839 $0 $0 $3,921,621 $0 Ground Lease (1) $0 $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5.0% of direct costs $1,943,942 $519,020 $0 $0 $164,215 $0 $0 $179,442 $0 $0 $196,081 $0 Project Management 3.0% of direct costs $1,166,365 $311,412 $0 $0 $98,529 $0 $0 $107,665 $0 $0 $117,649 $0 General Administration 2.0% of direct costs $777,577 $207,608 $0 $0 $65,686 $0 $0 $71,777 $0 $0 $78,432 $0 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $583,182 $155,706 $0 $0 $49,264 $0 $0 $53,833 $0 $0 $58,824 $0 Financing and Charges 0.0% of direct costs $0 $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0.0% of indirect costs $0 $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $4,471,066 $1,193,747 $0 $0 $377,694 $0 $0 $412,716 $0 $0 $450,986 $0 Total Town Center Uses Expenditures $43,349,898 $11,574,153 $0 $0 $3,661,990 $0 $0 $4,001,556 $0 $0 $4,372,608 $0 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($2,580,793) ($11,574,153) $0 $7,551,609 ($3,661,990) $10,027,844 $3,623,885 ($886,948) $3,208,046 $3,304,287 ($969,192) $2,114,404 IRR 15.2% NPV (at 15%) 15% $50,700 Public Financing State Grants --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Tax Increment Financing --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenue Sources (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 3 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 Town Center Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Town Center Revenues Residential Land Sales Low-Density 3.0% annual growth $13,827,357 Mid-Density 3.0% annual growth $9,800,168 High-Density 3.0% annual growth $12,968,990 Subtotal $36,596,516 Commercial Land Leases Office 3.0% annual growth $2,263,627 Retail 3.0% annual growth $1,908,964 Subtotal $4,172,590 Total Land Sales $40,769,106 $958,639 $987,398 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,219,197 $1,255,772 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,177,836 $2,243,171 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,177,836 $2,243,171 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Town Center Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $6,445,076 Storm Drainage $4,662,022 Central Plant Facility $8,681,419 Recycled Water Connection $2,245,195 Road Infrastructure Improvements $10,365,315 Direct Cost Contingency 20.0% of direct costs $6,479,805 Direct Costs Total $38,878,833 Ground Lease (1) $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5.0% of direct costs $1,943,942 Project Management 3.0% of direct costs $1,166,365 General Administration 2.0% of direct costs $777,577 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $583,182 Financing and Charges 0.0% of direct costs $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0.0% of indirect costs $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $4,471,066 Total Town Center Uses Expenditures $43,349,898 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($2,580,793) IRR 15.2% NPV (at 15%) 15% $50,700 Public Financing State Grants --- Tax Increment Financing --- $0 $705,873 $0 $0 $771,326 $0 $0 $842,849 $0 $596,119 $0 $514,663 $0 $0 $562,386 $0 $0 $614,534 $0 $434,639 $0 $958,383 $0 $0 $1,047,251 $0 $0 $1,144,359 $0 $809,367 $0 $247,858 $0 $0 $270,841 $0 $0 $295,955 $0 $209,319 $0 $1,144,276 $0 $0 $1,250,381 $0 $0 $1,366,325 $0 $966,356 $0 $714,210 $0 $0 $780,437 $0 $0 $852,804 $0 $603,160 $0 $4,285,262 $0 $0 $4,682,621 $0 $0 $5,116,826 $0 $3,618,961 $0 $214,263 $0 $0 $234,131 $0 $0 $255,841 $0 $180,948 $0 $128,558 $0 $0 $140,479 $0 $0 $153,505 $0 $108,569 $0 $85,705 $0 $0 $93,652 $0 $0 $102,337 $0 $72,379 $0 $64,279 $0 $0 $70,239 $0 $0 $76,752 $0 $54,284 $0 $492,805 $0 $0 $538,501 $0 $0 $588,435 $0 $416,180 $0 $4,778,067 $0 $0 $5,221,122 $0 $0 $5,705,261 $0 $4,035,141 $2,177,836 ($2,534,896) $0 $0 ($5,221,122) $0 $0 ($5,705,261) $0 ($4,035,141) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenue Sources (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 4 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 NSC & Town Center Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total NSC & Town Center Revenues Residential Land Sales & Leases Low-Density 3.0% $36,543,203 $0 $0 $4,392,636 $2,262,207 $6,990,221 $4,799,952 $4,325,956 $4,455,735 $4,589,407 $4,727,089 $0 Mid-Density 3.0% $25,808,218 $0 $0 $2,571,510 $1,135,138 $2,728,115 $2,007,113 $2,067,327 $2,129,346 $2,193,227 $2,259,024 $2,326,794 High-Density 3.0% $33,030,287 $0 $0 $3,114,709 $1,924,890 $4,626,153 $2,552,645 $2,629,224 $2,708,101 $2,789,344 $2,873,024 $2,959,215 Subtotal $95,381,708 $0 $0 $10,078,854 $5,322,235 $14,344,488 $9,359,710 $9,022,507 $9,293,182 $9,571,978 $9,859,137 $5,286,009 Commercial Land Leases Office 3.0% $4,673,504 $0 $0 $2,196,736 $0 $1,165,259 $0 $0 $0 $1,311,509 $0 $0 Retail 3.0% $5,349,270 $0 $0 $3,476,978 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,872,291 $0 $0 Subtotal $10,022,773 $0 $0 $5,673,714 $0 $1,165,259 $0 $0 $0 $3,183,800 $0 $0 Total Land Sales $105,404,481 $0 $0 $15,752,569 $5,322,235 $15,509,747 $9,359,710 $9,022,507 $9,293,182 $12,755,778 $9,859,137 $5,286,009 Total Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $16,197,493 $4,400,000 $0 $0 $1,359,600 $0 $0 $1,485,672 $0 $0 $1,623,434 $0 Storm Drainage $11,716,397 $3,114,667 $0 $0 $991,305 $0 $0 $1,083,226 $0 $0 $1,183,670 $0 Central Plant Facility $21,817,778 $5,800,000 $0 $0 $1,845,966 $0 $0 $2,017,137 $0 $0 $2,204,180 $0 Recycled Water Connection $5,642,529 $1,500,000 $0 $0 $477,405 $0 $0 $521,673 $0 $0 $570,047 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements $26,049,674 $6,925,000 $0 $0 $2,204,020 $0 $0 $2,408,392 $0 $0 $2,631,715 $0 Direct Cost Contingency 20% of direct costs $16,284,774 $4,347,933 $0 $0 $1,375,659 $0 $0 $1,503,220 $0 $0 $1,642,609 $0 Direct Costs Total $97,708,645 $26,087,600 $0 $0 $8,253,955 $0 $0 $9,019,319 $0 $0 $9,855,654 $0 Ground Lease $0 $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5% of direct costs $4,885,432 $1,304,380 $0 $0 $412,698 $0 $0 $450,966 $0 $0 $492,783 $0 Project Management 3% of direct costs $2,931,259 $782,628 $0 $0 $247,619 $0 $0 $270,580 $0 $0 $295,670 $0 General Administration 2% of direct costs $1,954,173 $521,752 $0 $0 $165,079 $0 $0 $180,386 $0 $0 $197,113 $0 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $1,465,630 $391,314 $0 $0 $123,809 $0 $0 $135,290 $0 $0 $147,835 $0 Financing and Charges 0% of direct costs $0 $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0% of indirect costs $0 $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $11,236,494 $3,000,074 $0 $0 $949,205 $0 $0 $1,037,222 $0 $0 $1,133,400 $0 Total Uses Expenditures $108,945,140 $29,087,674 $0 $0 $9,203,160 $0 $0 $10,056,541 $0 $0 $10,989,054 $0 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($3,540,658) ($29,087,674) $0 $15,752,569 ($3,880,924) $15,509,747 $9,359,710 ($1,034,034) $9,293,182 $12,755,778 ($1,129,917) $5,286,009 IRR 14% NPV (at 15%) 15% ($3,078,833) Public Financing State Grants --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Tax Increment Financing --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenue Sources (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 5 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 1 NSC & Town Center Feasibility Model (nominal $$) Item Assumption Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total NSC & Town Center Revenues Residential Land Sales & Leases Low-Density 3.0% $36,543,203 Mid-Density 3.0% $25,808,218 High-Density 3.0% $33,030,287 Subtotal $95,381,708 Commercial Land Leases Office 3.0% $4,673,504 Retail 3.0% $5,349,270 Subtotal $10,022,773 Total Land Sales $105,404,481 $2,396,598 $2,468,496 $1,525,531 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,047,991 $2,511,545 $1,293,446 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,444,590 $4,980,041 $2,818,976 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,444,590 $4,980,041 $2,818,976 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Expenditures Direct Costs Water Reservoir $16,197,493 Storm Drainage $11,716,397 Central Plant Facility $21,817,778 Recycled Water Connection $5,642,529 Road Infrastructure Improvements $26,049,674 Direct Cost Contingency 20% of direct costs $16,284,774 Direct Costs Total $97,708,645 Ground Lease $0 Indirect Costs Engineering 5% of direct costs $4,885,432 Project Management 3% of direct costs $2,931,259 General Administration 2% of direct costs $1,954,173 Insurance 1.5% of direct costs $1,465,630 Financing and Charges 0% of direct costs $0 Soft Cost Contingency 0% of indirect costs $0 Indirect Costs Total 11.5% of direct costs $11,236,494 Total Uses Expenditures $108,945,140 Net Revenues (before public finance) ($3,540,658) IRR 14% NPV (at 15%) 15% ($3,078,833) Public Financing State Grants --- Tax Increment Financing --- $0 $1,773,970 $0 $0 $1,938,465 $0 $0 $2,118,212 $0 $1,498,141 $0 $1,293,428 $0 $0 $1,413,364 $0 $0 $1,544,421 $0 $1,092,317 $0 $2,408,567 $0 $0 $2,631,906 $0 $0 $2,875,955 $0 $2,034,067 $0 $622,905 $0 $0 $680,665 $0 $0 $743,781 $0 $526,052 $0 $2,875,746 $0 $0 $3,142,405 $0 $0 $3,433,791 $0 $2,428,606 $0 $1,794,923 $0 $0 $1,961,361 $0 $0 $2,143,232 $0 $1,515,837 $0 $10,769,539 $0 $0 $11,768,166 $0 $0 $12,859,393 $0 $9,095,020 $0 $538,477 $0 $0 $588,408 $0 $0 $642,970 $0 $454,751 $0 $323,086 $0 $0 $353,045 $0 $0 $385,782 $0 $272,851 $0 $215,391 $0 $0 $235,363 $0 $0 $257,188 $0 $181,900 $0 $161,543 $0 $0 $176,522 $0 $0 $192,891 $0 $136,425 $0 $1,238,497 $0 $0 $1,353,339 $0 $0 $1,478,830 $0 $1,045,927 $0 $12,008,036 $0 $0 $13,121,505 $0 $0 $14,338,223 $0 $10,140,947 $5,444,590 ($7,027,995) $2,818,976 $0 ($13,121,505) $0 $0 ($14,338,223) $0 ($10,140,947) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Revenue Sources (After Public Financing) IRR NPV (at 15%) 15% (1) Annual ground lease required to yield a 15% return for the Project; capitalized at 8%. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 6 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 2 Land Planning Program for NSC Campus and Town Center Location/Use Net Acres Residential Units 1 Commercial Square Feet NSC Land - Main Campus (159 Gross Acres/115 Net Acres 2 ) Residential Low-Density Housing (10 du's/acre) 37 370 --- Medium-Density Housing (20 du's/acre) 37 740 --- High-Density Housing (30 du's/acre) 37 1,110 --- Total Residential 111 2,220 --- Office 4 --- 100,000 Retail 3 0 --- 40,000 NSC Land Total 115 2,220 140,000 City-Owned Land - Town Center (90 Gross Acres/76 Net Acres 4 ) Residential Low-Density Housing (10 du's/acre) 23 230 --- Medium-Density Housing (20 du's/acre) 23 460 --- High-Density Housing (30 du's/acre) 24 720 --- Total Residential 70 1,410 --- Office 4 --- 100,000 Retail 2 --- 60,000 City-Owned Land Total 76 1,410 160,000 Total Land Program - Campus and Town Center (249 Gross Acres/191 Net Acres) Residential Low-Density Housing (10 du's/acre) 60 600 --- Medium-Density Housing (20 du's/acre) 60 1,200 --- High-Density Housing (30 du's/acre) 61 1,830 --- Total Residential 181 3,630 --- Office 8 --- 200,000 Retail 2 --- 100,000 Total Land Program 191 3,630 300,000 Notes: (1) This program assumes all recommended uses can utilize surface parking (no structured parking) with nearby on-site parking for each recommended use. This program also assumes that student housing for 2,950 beds will be built on the 350 acres of college campus. (2) Given a total of 509 acres and 350 acres set aside for campus uses, including student housing, there is a residual of 159 acres. After deducting land for roads, easements, parks, and a 15 acre k-8 school site, there is a remainder of 115 acres. (3) Retail uses are assumed to be programmed into ground floor locations within campus buildings on the 350 acres. (4) We are advised that the city owns approximately 90 acres adjacent to the NSC site (509 acres), which we have designated as "Town Center" land. The net available developable acres are assumed to be 76 acres after subtracting 15.5 of the total gross acreage. Sources: Nevada State College; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 3 Development Schedule (Units and Square Feet) Units per Acre Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NSC Residential Units Low-Density 10 370 0 0 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 50 0 Mid-Density 20 740 0 0 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 High-Density 30 1,110 0 0 120 120 120 90 90 90 90 90 90 Subtotal 2,220 0 0 240 220 220 200 200 200 200 200 150 Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 100,000 0 0 50,000 0 0 0 0 0 50,000 0 0 Retail 1 30,000 40,000 0 0 20,000 0 0 0 0 0 20,000 0 0 Subtotal 140,000 0 0 70,000 0 0 0 0 0 70,000 0 0 Town Center Residential Units Low-Density 10 230 0 0 40 0 80 30 20 20 20 20 0 Mid-Density 20 460 0 0 60 0 80 40 40 40 40 40 40 High-Density 30 720 0 0 80 0 160 60 60 60 60 60 60 Subtotal 1,410 0 0 180 0 320 130 120 120 120 120 100 Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 100,000 0 0 50,000 0 50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail 30,000 60,000 0 0 60,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 160,000 0 0 110,000 0 50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 NSC and Town Center Cumulative Residential Units Low-Density 10 600 0 0 80 40 120 80 70 70 70 70 0 Mid-Density 20 1,200 0 0 140 60 140 100 100 100 100 100 100 High-Density 30 1,830 0 0 200 120 280 150 150 150 150 150 150 Subtotal 3,630 0 0 420 220 540 330 320 320 320 320 250 Cumulative Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 200,000 0 0 100,000 0 50,000 0 0 0 50,000 0 0 Retail 30,000 100,000 0 0 80,000 0 0 0 0 0 20,000 0 0 Subtotal 300,000 0 0 180,000 0 50,000 0 0 0 70,000 0 0 (1) Anticipated as part of a mixed-use development with other residential or commercial product type, and will not require a land allocation. Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 1 of 2 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 3 Development Schedule (Units and Square Feet) Units per Acre Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 NSC Residential Units Low-Density 10 370 Mid-Density 20 740 High-Density 30 1,110 Subtotal 2,220 Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 100,000 Retail 1 30,000 40,000 Subtotal 140,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Town Center Residential Units Low-Density 10 230 Mid-Density 20 460 High-Density 30 720 Subtotal 1,410 Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 100,000 Retail 30,000 60,000 Subtotal 160,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NSC and Town Center Cumulative Residential Units Low-Density 10 600 Mid-Density 20 1,200 High-Density 30 1,830 Subtotal 3,630 Cumulative Commercial Square Feet Office 25,000 200,000 Retail 30,000 100,000 Subtotal 300,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 120 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 220 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1) Anticipated as part of a mixed-use development with other residential or commercia Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 2 of 2 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 4 Conceptual NSC & Town Center On-Site Full Cost Estimates (2009 $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Cost Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Water Reservoir $13,200,000 $13,200,000 $4,400,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $504,000 $504,000 $168,000 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 New Drainage Channels $8,840,000 $8,840,000 $2,946,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 Sub-Total $9,344,000 $9,344,000 $3,114,667 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 Central Plant Facility Low Range or $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $3,333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 High Range $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 Pipe Loop $2,400,000 $2,400,000 $800,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 Sub-Total $17,400,000 $17,400,000 $5,800,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 Recycled Water Connection $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $1,500,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $5,400,000 $5,400,000 $1,800,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 Arterial New Construction $2,250,000 $2,250,000 $750,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 Rail Overpasses $13,125,000 $0 $4,375,000 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 Sub-Total 1 $20,775,000 $20,775,000 $6,925,000 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 Total $65,219,000 $65,219,000 $21,739,667 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrastructure program for the NSC or Town Center sites, and only includes arterial widening, arterial new construction, and rail overpasses. Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 1 of 2 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 4 Conceptual NSC & Town Center On-Site Full Cost Estimates (2009 $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Cost Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Water Reservoir $13,200,000 $13,200,000 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $504,000 $504,000 New Drainage Channels $8,840,000 $8,840,000 Sub-Total $9,344,000 $9,344,000 Central Plant Facility Low Range or $10,000,000 $10,000,000 High Range $15,000,000 $15,000,000 Pipe Loop $2,400,000 $2,400,000 Sub-Total $17,400,000 $17,400,000 Recycled Water Connection $4,500,000 $4,500,000 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $5,400,000 $5,400,000 Arterial New Construction $2,250,000 $2,250,000 Rail Overpasses $13,125,000 $0 Sub-Total 1 $20,775,000 $20,775,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $440,000 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $16,800 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $294,667 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $311,467 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $333,333 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $80,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $437,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 $692,500 Total $65,219,000 $65,219,000 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 $2,173,967 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrastructur Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 2 of 2 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (Nominal $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NSC & Town Center Site Water Reservoir $13,200,000 $16,197,493 $4,400,000 $0 $0 $1,359,600 $0 $0 $1,485,672 $0 $0 $1,623,434 $0 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $504,000 $631,963 $168,000 $0 $0 $53,469 $0 $0 $58,427 $0 $0 $63,845 $0 New Drainage Channels $8,840,000 $11,084,434 $2,946,667 $0 $0 $937,836 $0 $0 $1,024,798 $0 $0 $1,119,825 $0 Sub-Total $9,344,000 $11,716,397 $3,114,667 $0 $0 $991,305 $0 $0 $1,083,226 $0 $0 $1,183,670 $0 Central Plant Facility High Range $15,000,000 $18,808,429 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $1,591,350 $0 $0 $1,738,911 $0 $0 $1,900,155 $0 Pipe Loop $2,400,000 $3,009,349 $800,000 $0 $0 $254,616 $0 $0 $278,226 $0 $0 $304,025 $0 Sub-Total $17,400,000 $21,817,778 $5,800,000 $0 $0 $1,845,966 $0 $0 $2,017,137 $0 $0 $2,204,180 $0 Recycled Water Connection $4,500,000 $5,642,529 $1,500,000 $0 $0 $477,405 $0 $0 $521,673 $0 $0 $570,047 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $5,400,000 $6,771,034 $1,800,000 $0 $0 $572,886 $0 $0 $626,008 $0 $0 $684,056 $0 Arterial New Construction $2,250,000 $2,821,264 $750,000 $0 $0 $238,703 $0 $0 $260,837 $0 $0 $285,023 $0 Rail Overpasses $13,125,000 $16,457,375 $4,375,000 $0 $0 $1,392,431 $0 $0 $1,521,547 $0 $0 $1,662,636 $0 Sub-Total 1 $20,775,000 $26,049,674 $6,925,000 $0 $0 $2,204,020 $0 $0 $2,408,392 $0 $0 $2,631,715 $0 NSC & Town Center Site Total $65,219,000 $81,423,871 $21,739,667 $0 $0 $6,878,296 $0 $0 $7,516,099 $0 $0 $8,213,045 $0 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrastructure program for the NSC or Town Center sites, and only includes arterial widening, arterial new construction, and rail overpasses. (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres. The NSC site possess approximately 115 net developable acres of the combined NSC and Town Center total of 191, or 60.2%. Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 1 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (Nominal $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 NSC & Town Center Site Water Reservoir $13,200,000 $16,197,493 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $504,000 $631,963 New Drainage Channels $8,840,000 $11,084,434 Sub-Total $9,344,000 $11,716,397 Central Plant Facility High Range $15,000,000 $18,808,429 Pipe Loop $2,400,000 $3,009,349 Sub-Total $17,400,000 $21,817,778 Recycled Water Connection $4,500,000 $5,642,529 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $5,400,000 $6,771,034 Arterial New Construction $2,250,000 $2,821,264 Rail Overpasses $13,125,000 $16,457,375 Sub-Total 1 $20,775,000 $26,049,674 $0 $1,773,970 $0 $0 $1,938,465 $0 $0 $2,118,212 $0 $1,498,141 $0 $69,765 $0 $0 $76,235 $0 $0 $83,304 $0 $58,918 $0 $1,223,663 $0 $0 $1,337,129 $0 $0 $1,461,117 $0 $1,033,400 $0 $1,293,428 $0 $0 $1,413,364 $0 $0 $1,544,421 $0 $1,092,317 $0 $2,076,351 $0 $0 $2,268,885 $0 $0 $2,479,271 $0 $1,753,506 $0 $332,216 $0 $0 $363,022 $0 $0 $396,683 $0 $280,561 $0 $2,408,567 $0 $0 $2,631,906 $0 $0 $2,875,955 $0 $2,034,067 $0 $622,905 $0 $0 $680,665 $0 $0 $743,781 $0 $526,052 $0 $747,486 $0 $0 $816,798 $0 $0 $892,538 $0 $631,262 $0 $311,453 $0 $0 $340,333 $0 $0 $371,891 $0 $263,026 $0 $1,816,807 $0 $0 $1,985,274 $0 $0 $2,169,363 $0 $1,534,318 $0 $2,875,746 $0 $0 $3,142,405 $0 $0 $3,433,791 $0 $2,428,606 NSC & Town Center Site Total $65,219,000 $81,423,871 $0 $8,974,616 $0 $0 $9,806,805 $0 $0 $10,716,161 $0 $7,579,183 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrast (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 2 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (Nominal $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NSC Site 2 Water Reservoir $7,947,644 $9,752,417 $2,649,215 $0 $0 $818,607 $0 $0 $894,514 $0 $0 $977,460 $0 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $303,455 $380,501 $101,152 $0 $0 $32,194 $0 $0 $35,179 $0 $0 $38,441 $0 New Drainage Channels $5,322,513 $6,673,874 $1,774,171 $0 $0 $564,665 $0 $0 $617,025 $0 $0 $674,240 $0 Sub-Total $5,625,969 $7,054,375 $1,875,323 $0 $0 $596,859 $0 $0 $652,204 $0 $0 $712,681 $0 Central Plant Facility High Range $9,031,414 $11,324,447 $3,010,471 $0 $0 $958,143 $0 $0 $1,046,988 $0 $0 $1,144,072 $0 Pipe Loop $1,445,026 $1,811,911 $481,675 $0 $0 $153,303 $0 $0 $167,518 $0 $0 $183,052 $0 Sub-Total $10,476,440 $13,136,358 $3,492,147 $0 $0 $1,111,445 $0 $0 $1,214,507 $0 $0 $1,327,124 $0 Recycled Water Connection $2,709,424 $3,397,334 $903,141 $0 $0 $287,443 $0 $0 $314,097 $0 $0 $343,222 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $3,251,309 $4,076,801 $1,083,770 $0 $0 $344,931 $0 $0 $376,916 $0 $0 $411,866 $0 Arterial New Construction $1,354,712 $1,698,667 $451,571 $0 $0 $143,721 $0 $0 $157,048 $0 $0 $171,611 $0 Rail Overpasses $7,902,487 $9,908,891 $2,634,162 $0 $0 $838,375 $0 $0 $916,115 $0 $0 $1,001,063 $0 Sub-Total 1 $12,508,508 $15,684,359 $4,169,503 $0 $0 $1,327,028 $0 $0 $1,450,079 $0 $0 $1,584,540 $0 NSC Site Total $39,267,984 $49,024,844 $13,089,328 $0 $0 $4,141,382 $0 $0 $4,525,400 $0 $0 $4,945,027 $0 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrastructure program for the NSC or Town Center sites, and only includes arterial widening, arterial new construction, and rail overpasses. (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres. The NSC site possess approximately 115 net developable acres of the combined NSC and Town Center total of 191, or 60.2%. Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 3 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (Nominal $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 NSC Site 2 Water Reservoir $7,947,644 $9,752,417 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $303,455 $380,501 New Drainage Channels $5,322,513 $6,673,874 Sub-Total $5,625,969 $7,054,375 Central Plant Facility High Range $9,031,414 $11,324,447 Pipe Loop $1,445,026 $1,811,911 Sub-Total $10,476,440 $13,136,358 Recycled Water Connection $2,709,424 $3,397,334 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $3,251,309 $4,076,801 Arterial New Construction $1,354,712 $1,698,667 Rail Overpasses $7,902,487 $9,908,891 Sub-Total 1 $12,508,508 $15,684,359 $0 $1,068,097 $0 $0 $1,167,138 $0 $0 $1,275,364 $0 $902,022 $0 $42,005 $0 $0 $45,900 $0 $0 $50,157 $0 $35,474 $0 $736,760 $0 $0 $805,078 $0 $0 $879,730 $0 $622,204 $0 $778,766 $0 $0 $850,978 $0 $0 $929,887 $0 $657,678 $0 $1,250,159 $0 $0 $1,366,082 $0 $0 $1,492,755 $0 $1,055,776 $0 $200,025 $0 $0 $218,573 $0 $0 $238,841 $0 $168,924 $0 $1,450,184 $0 $0 $1,584,656 $0 $0 $1,731,596 $0 $1,224,700 $0 $375,048 $0 $0 $409,825 $0 $0 $447,827 $0 $316,733 $0 $450,057 $0 $0 $491,790 $0 $0 $537,392 $0 $380,079 $0 $187,524 $0 $0 $204,912 $0 $0 $223,913 $0 $158,366 $0 $1,093,889 $0 $0 $1,195,322 $0 $0 $1,306,161 $0 $923,804 $0 $1,731,470 $0 $0 $1,892,024 $0 $0 $2,067,466 $0 $1,462,250 NSC Site Total $39,267,984 $49,024,844 $0 $5,403,564 $0 $0 $5,904,621 $0 $0 $6,452,139 $0 $4,563,383 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrast (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 4 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (2009 $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Town Center Site 2 Water Reservoir $4,785,231 $6,445,076 $1,750,785 $0 $0 $540,993 $0 $0 $591,157 $0 $0 $645,974 $0 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $182,709 $251,462 $66,848 $0 $0 $21,276 $0 $0 $23,249 $0 $0 $25,404 $0 New Drainage Channels $3,204,654 $4,410,560 $1,172,496 $0 $0 $373,170 $0 $0 $407,773 $0 $0 $445,585 $0 Sub-Total $3,387,363 $4,662,022 $1,239,344 $0 $0 $394,446 $0 $0 $431,022 $0 $0 $470,989 $0 Central Plant Facility High Range $5,437,762 $7,483,982 $1,989,529 $0 $0 $633,207 $0 $0 $691,923 $0 $0 $756,083 $0 Pipe Loop $870,042 $1,197,437 $318,325 $0 $0 $101,313 $0 $0 $110,708 $0 $0 $120,973 $0 Sub-Total $6,307,804 $8,681,419 $2,307,853 $0 $0 $734,521 $0 $0 $802,630 $0 $0 $877,056 $0 Recycled Water Connection $1,631,329 $2,245,195 $596,859 $0 $0 $189,962 $0 $0 $207,577 $0 $0 $226,825 $0 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $1,957,594 $2,694,234 $716,230 $0 $0 $227,955 $0 $0 $249,092 $0 $0 $272,190 $0 Arterial New Construction $815,664 $1,122,597 $298,429 $0 $0 $94,981 $0 $0 $103,788 $0 $0 $113,412 $0 Rail Overpasses $4,758,042 $6,548,484 $1,740,838 $0 $0 $554,056 $0 $0 $605,432 $0 $0 $661,572 $0 Sub-Total 1 $7,531,301 $10,365,315 $2,755,497 $0 $0 $876,992 $0 $0 $958,313 $0 $0 $1,047,174 $0 Town Center Site Total $23,643,027 $32,399,027 $8,650,339 $0 $0 $2,736,913 $0 $0 $2,990,699 $0 $0 $3,268,018 $0 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrastructure program for the NSC or Town Center sites, and only includes arterial widening, arterial new construction, and rail overpasses. (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres. The NSC site possess approximately 115 net developable acres of the combined NSC and Town Center total of 191, or 60.2%. Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 5 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 5 Conceptual Infrastructure Cost Allocation (2009 $'s) DRAFT FINANCIAL MODEL Section Present Cost Total Cost 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Town Center Site 2 Water Reservoir $4,785,231 $6,445,076 Storm Drainage Berm Removal $182,709 $251,462 New Drainage Channels $3,204,654 $4,410,560 Sub-Total $3,387,363 $4,662,022 Central Plant Facility High Range $5,437,762 $7,483,982 Pipe Loop $870,042 $1,197,437 Sub-Total $6,307,804 $8,681,419 Recycled Water Connection $1,631,329 $2,245,195 Road Infrastructure Improvements Arterial Widening $1,957,594 $2,694,234 Arterial New Construction $815,664 $1,122,597 Rail Overpasses $4,758,042 $6,548,484 Sub-Total 1 $7,531,301 $10,365,315 $0 $705,873 $0 $0 $771,326 $0 $0 $842,849 $0 $596,119 $0 $27,760 $0 $0 $30,334 $0 $0 $33,147 $0 $23,444 $0 $486,902 $0 $0 $532,051 $0 $0 $581,387 $0 $411,196 $0 $514,663 $0 $0 $562,386 $0 $0 $614,534 $0 $434,639 $0 $826,192 $0 $0 $902,802 $0 $0 $986,516 $0 $697,730 $0 $132,191 $0 $0 $144,448 $0 $0 $157,843 $0 $111,637 $0 $958,383 $0 $0 $1,047,251 $0 $0 $1,144,359 $0 $809,367 $0 $247,858 $0 $0 $270,841 $0 $0 $295,955 $0 $209,319 $0 $297,429 $0 $0 $325,009 $0 $0 $355,146 $0 $251,183 $0 $123,929 $0 $0 $135,420 $0 $0 $147,977 $0 $104,660 $0 $722,918 $0 $0 $789,952 $0 $0 $863,202 $0 $610,514 $0 $1,144,276 $0 $0 $1,250,381 $0 $0 $1,366,325 $0 $966,356 Town Center Site Total $23,643,027 $32,399,027 $0 $3,571,051 $0 $0 $3,902,184 $0 $0 $4,264,022 $0 $3,015,801 (1) This figure does not assume freeway widenings and interchanges to be included in the infrast (2) Assumes that a proportional allocation of infrastructure costs based on net developable acres Source: Arup, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 6 of 6 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls
Table 6 10 Dwelling Units per Acre NSC Development Residual Land Value For-Sale - Moderate Scenario For-Sale - Conservative Scenario For-Sale - Optimistic Scenario Item Assumptions Total Assumptions Total Assumptions Total DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Number of Units 370 370 370 Avg Gross Unit Area 4,356 4,356 4,356 Avg Net Unit Area 2,500 2,500 2,500 Net Area 925,000 925,000 925,000 Efficiency Rate (GLA/Gross SF) 57% 57% 57% Footprint 1,611,720 1,611,720 1,611,720 Direct Costs Construction Cost 1 $85.00 /SF $78,625,000 $85.00 /SF $78,625,000 $85.00 /SF $78,625,000 On-Site Costs $10.00 /Footprint SF $6,867,200 $10.00 /Footprint SF $6,867,200 $10.00 /Footprint SF $6,867,200 Construction Costs $85,492,200 $85,492,200 $85,492,200 Sub-Total of Direct Costs $85,492,200 $85,492,200 $85,492,200 Indirect Costs Water & Sewer 2 Clean Water Coalition Fees $849 / Unit $314,130 $849 / Unit $314,130 $849 / Unit $314,130 Water System Development Charges $1,008 / Unit $372,960 $1,008 / Unit $372,960 $1,008 / Unit $372,960 S.N.W.A Regional Connection Charge $3,400 / Unit $1,258,000 $3,400 / Unit $1,258,000 $3,400 / Unit $1,258,000 Sewer System Development Charges $1,800 / Unit $666,000 $1,800 / Unit $666,000 $1,800 / Unit $666,000 Permit Fees 3 $1,806 / Unit $668,139 $1,806 / Unit $668,139 $1,806 / Unit $668,139 Clark County Transportation Privilege Tax 4 $800 / Unit $296,000 $800 / Unit $296,000 $800 / Unit $296,000 Entitlement & Planning 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 Project Management/General Admin. 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 Financing & Charges 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 5.0% of Direct Costs $4,274,610 Sub-Total of Indirect Costs $16,399,059 $16,399,059 $16,399,059 Total Costs $101,891,259 $101,891,259 $101,891,259 Contingency 5.0% of Total Costs $5,094,563 5.0% of Total Costs $5,094,563 5.0% of Total Costs $5,094,563 Developer Profit 10.0% of Total Costs $10,189,126 10.0% of Total Costs $10,189,126 10.0% of Total Costs $10,189,126 Total Development Costs $117,174,947 $117,174,947 $117,174,947 Revenue Assumptions Sale Price $154.83 /SF $143,219,674 $131.61 /SF $121,736,723 $178.06 /SF $164,702,625 Gross Achievable Income $143,219,674 $121,736,723 $164,702,625 Closing Cost 4.0% of sale price $5,728,787 4.0% of sale price $4,869,469 4.0% of sale price $6,588,105 Net Proceeds $137,490,887 $116,867,254 $158,114,520 RESIDUAL LAND VALUE Net Proceeds $137,490,887 $116,867,254 $158,114,520 (Less) Total Costs (Direct, Indirect, & Contingency) $117,174,947 $117,174,947 $117,174,947 Total Residual Land Value $20,315,940 -$307,693 $40,939,573 Residual Value per Net Acre $549,079 -$8,316 $1,106,475 (1) Based on Developer Quotes in Las Vegas and Phoenix Markets, and RS Means (2) Provided by City of Henderson Development Services Department (3) Calculated by City of Henderson Permit Fee Estimator (4) Provided by City of Henderson Development Services Department Source: City of Henderson, Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4/8/2009 Page 1 of 2 P:\18000s\18067NevStateCollege\Tasks\Task 4 - Strategic Financing Analysis\18067FeasibilityModel5.xls