Regional Economic Outlook Dan White, Director September, 2017 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 1
Remarkably Steady Growth 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Real GDP growth, %, 4-qtr MA (L) Avg monthly change in employment, ths (R) 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600 Sources: BLS, BEA, Moody s Analytics U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 2
Regional Pattern More Nuanced Unemployment rate, 2017Q2, diff. from low of last cycle, ppts U.S.=0.47 1.23 or greater 0.77 to <1.23 <0.77 New low U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 3
Midwest s Jobless Rate Cracks 4% Unemployment rate, % 12 Northeast Midwest 11 South West 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 4
Wage Pressures Rising in Northeast & Midwest Avg hourly earnings, manufacturing, % change yr ago 7 Northeast Midwest 6 South West 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 5
Tech Jobs Correlate Well With Wage Pressure High-tech jobs, % share of total employment, 2016 8 to 27.2 4.8 to <8 3 to <4.8 0.57 to <3 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 6
Tech Concentrations Becoming More Widespread High-tech jobs, % share of total, change 2010-2016, ppts 0.5 to 5.1 0.17 to <0.5 0 to <0.17-3.6 to <0 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 7
Highest Inflation in the West Consumer price index, % change yr ago 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Northeast Midwest South West U.S. 13 14 15 16 17 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 8
Deflation Weighing on Taxable Sales U.S. core consumer price indices, % change yr ago 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Goods Services 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 9
Pushing the Envelope Duration of business cycle expansion, months, state fiscal year 140 120 FY19 FY18 History 100 80 Post-WWII average 60 40 20 0 45 48 53 58 61 70 75 80 82 91 01 09 Sources: NBER, Moody s Analytics U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 10
Dan White daniel.white@moodys.com @DanWhiteEcon U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 11
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