November Russian equity market key trends

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Transcription:

November 2017 Russian equity market key trends

US France UK India Japan China Germany Russia Brazil Indonesia Russian equity market on a GDP scale Global comparison Trends in Russia MCap / GDP, % Dynamics of Russian market cap to GDP % 44% 147% 135% 132% 127% 37% 35% 29% 35% 107% 2012 2013 2014 2015 64% 50% 44% 44% 43% Russian equity Mcap, USD bln 825 771 386 393 622 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: IMF, GDP () Rosstat data for Russia, IMF data for other countries; WFE for domestic market capitalization 2

Russian equity market by sector Composition of MOEX s main equity market index (MICEX) 50 member names out of 285 total % Chemicals Transport Real Estate Electric Utilities 3% 2% Consumer 5% 1% 1% Telecom 6% Metals & Mining 14% 46% Oil & Gas 22% Financials Source: Bloomberg as of 08.11.2017, Moscow Exchange 3

TOP-10 issuers by market capitalization Company Industry Market cap, USD bln Share in total Market Cap, % 1 Sberbank Banks & Finance 72.1 12% 2 Rosneft Oil & Gas 58.7 9% 3 Gazprom Oil & Gas 52.2 8% 4 Lukoil Oil & Gas 44.4 7% 5 Novatek Oil & Gas 35.0 6% 6 NorNickel Metals & Mining 29.3 5% 7 Gazprom Neft Oil & Gas 19.0 3% 8 Surgutneftegaz Oil & Gas 18.4 3% 9 Tatneft Oil & Gas 15.9 3% 10 NLMK Metals & Mining 13.8 2% Total TOP-10 359 58% Total market 622 100% Market Cap as of 23.10.2017 Source: Moscow Exchange 4

TOP-10 issuers by trading value Company Industry ADTV 1, USD mln Share in total trading value, % 1 Sberbank Banks & Finance 134.0 22% 2 Gazprom Oil & Gas 85.9 14% 3 NorNickel Metals & Mining 39.1 6% 4 Lukoil Oil & Gas 36.8 6% 5 Rosneft Oil & Gas 26.5 4% 6 Alrosa Metals & Mining 23.4 4% 7 Magnit Consumer goods & Trade 20.1 3% 8 Moscow Exchange Banks & Finance 16.2 3% 9 Aeroflot Airlines 13.0 2% 10 VTB Banks & Finance 12.6 2% Total TOP-10 408 67% Total market 606 100% 1 Trading volume in EOB and Negotiated deals mode for 2017 YTD Source: Moscow Exchange as of 23.10.2017 5

Concentration in trading on equities market decreases Trading value concentration on equities market Top-5 shares Top-10 shares Top-30 shares 79% -26 p.p. 92% -25 p.p. 98% -5 p.p. 93% 53% 67% 10М 2009 10М 2017 10М 2009 10М 2017 10М 2009 10М 2017 Source: Moscow Exchange 6

Shift towards local capital raisings IPOs/SPOs/listings by Russian issuers Listing on MOEX Dual listing Foreign listing 6 19 21 13 16 8 9 6 13 1 5 2 1 8 2 7 4 2 2 6 7 6 12 4 9 12 9 7 2 2 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017YTD Source: Dealogic, Moscow Exchange 7

MOEX procedures and technologies comply with global standards Global trends before 2011 «Group 30» recommendations Central securities depository Settlement with partial pre-funding (T+) Pre-trade risk check Alignment of the Russian listing standards, dividend payment process with international best practice Global trends 2011+ Dodd Frank (2010) IOSCO/EMIR (2012) MOEX Clearing House qualification as the CCP Repository Segregation and portability MOEX CCP recognition by ESMA and CFTC (in progress) 8

Results of 1 st stage of MOEX Listing reform (1/2) Number of issuers 31.12. 31.01.2017 Quotation List 1 64 52 Shares Quotation List 2 34 33 Quotation List 3 150 160 Quotation List 1 110 99 Bonds Quotation List 2 82 86 Quotation List 3 261 268 9

Results of 1 st stage of MOEX Listing reform (2/2) Number of issuers 31.12. 31.01.2017 Shares in QL 1 64 52-19% 100% issuers comply with Corporate Governance requirements Number of independent directors Compliance with requirements for audit committee Compliance with requirements for HR and Remuneration Committee Issuers have a dividend policy Quotation List 1 Quotation List 2 09.06.2014 31.01.2017 09.06.2014 31.01.2017 222 73 69 150 100% 100% 4% 0% 100% not required not required 2% 100% 100% 80% not required 10

Dividend yields on Russian equities Russia has one of the highest dividend yield 2017 1 % 2017E dividend yield for Russian stocks 2 % Russia 5.5 Severstal 9.9 Taiwan 3.8 Aeroflot 8.7 Turkey 3.3 Alrosa 8.7 South Africa 3.1 Nornikel 8.0 Brazil 3.1 Malaysia 3.0 Gazprom 6.0 Mexico 2.2 MOEX 5.6 Indonesia 2.1 Gazpromneft 4.5 China 2.0 Sberbank 4.1 India 1.5 VTB 3.3 Source: Bloomberg as of 13.11.2017, VTB capital 1 Bloomberg estimate - 2017E dividend yield for emerging market indexes 2 VTB Capital 11

Dividends from government companies expected to grow Company 2013 2014 2015 2017 Est 1 2017 Est to Change of 2013 Aeroflot 1.4% 7.8% 6.8% 0.0% 8.6% +7.2 p.p. Alrosa 3.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.1% 8.5% +5.3 p.p. Rostelekom 2.2% 3.6% 3.7% 7.0% 7.4% +5.2 p.p. Gazprom 4.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 6.0% +1.7 p.p. Tatneft 4.1% 3.6% 3.3% 2.6% 5.0% +0.9 p.p. Gazpromneft 9.1% 6.9% 5.0% 0.3% 4.4% -4.7 p.p. Transneft 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 4.2% +3.4 p.p. Sberbank 2.5% 5.8% 0.4% 1.1% 3.8% +1.3 p.p. VTB 2.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 3.3% +0.4 p.p. Rosneft 3.2% 6.6% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2% +0.0 p.p. Average 3.4% 4.4% 3.2% 2.3% 5.4% +2.1 p.p. Source: Bloomberg as of 10.11.2017, Dividend yield as of end period 1 Bloomberg consensus estimate 12

International investors share on Moscow Exchange markets is increasing Equity market Bond market 40% 44% 48% 18% 17% 19% 2013 2015 10M2017 2013 2015 10М2017 Source: Moscow Exchange 13

Increasing foreign funds holding shares of Russian companies ХХ% - CAGR - share in total holdings World USD bn North America USD bn UK USD bn Europe without UK USD bn +11% 61.6 49% 52% 53% 21% 23% 22% 27% 22% 22% 50.2 54.8 24.5 +15% 28.7 32.6 10.5 +14% 12.4 13.7 13.7-1% 11.9 13.4 2015 9M2017 2015 9M2017 2015 9M2017 2015 9M2017 Source: ThomsonONE as of period end, including DRs on Russian shares 14

Retail clients: a growing segment of the Russian financial market Number of retail clients accounts mln accounts +25% 1.8 +14% +15% 1.4 1.3 1.1 October 2014 October 2015 October October 2017 Source: Moscow Exchange 15

Growing number of Individual Investment Accounts (IIA) Number of opened IIA Shares of securities on IIA as of the end accrued number, thousand accounts Clients, who had got brokerage account before IIA IIA as a new brokerage account Corporate bonds 20% ETF 2% 279 51% Stocks 195 Government bonds 28% 128 89 67 22 67 92% of transactions from IIA are with stocks 2015 October 2017 Source: Moscow Exchange 16

USA Italy France Poland Korea Germany Russia Japan UK Turkey Increasing share of securities market instruments in savings of Russian individuals Share of securities market instruments in total savings of Russian individuals Share of securities market instruments in assets of individuals by country 1 Share of securities market instruments in total savings of Russian individuals, % 8% 2012 13% 2014 16% 53% 47% 31% 29% 27% 25% +21% +31% 27.4 16% 15% 13% 13% Savings of Russian individuals, RUB trn 17.3 20.9 2012 2014 Source: Moscow Exchange, Rosstat 1 OECD Factbook 2015-17

Increasing share of securities in non-state pension funds savings Investment portfolio of pension savings in NPFs RUB trn Deposits and other assets Bonds Equities +89% 2.1 22% 1.1 46% 60% 47% 17% 7% 4Q2014 4Q Source: CBR 18

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Important factors that could cause our actual results, performance, achievements or industry results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among other factors: perception of market services offered by the Company and its subsidiaries; volatility (a) of the Russian economy and the securities market and (b) sectors with a high level of competition that the Company and its subsidiaries operate; changes in (a) domestic and international legislation and tax regulation and (b) state policies related to financial markets and securities markets; competition increase from new players on the Russian market; the ability to keep pace with rapid changes in science and technology environment, including the ability to use advanced features that are popular with the Company's and its subsidiaries' customers; the ability to maintain continuity of the process of introduction of new competitive products and services, while keeping the competitiveness; the ability to attract new customers on the domestic market and in foreign jurisdictions; the ability to increase the offer of products in foreign jurisdictions. 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