Transborder Energy in North America
AGENDA NACTS Global perspective North American perspective Key Stone Renewable Energy
NACTS NACTS is a consortium of US, Canadian and Mexican universities We promote cooperation: Security Competitiveness Awareness Sustainability We work for CSG State Alliance on Human Trafficking, Waste Tires, Renewable Energy
ATTRIBUTION Grants from Canadian DFAIT to Professor Martin Pasqualetti and myself Grant from Government of Quebec Grant from U.S AID Mexico Mission through Council of State Governments Grant from U.S. EPA to SCERP
Humanity s Top 10 Problems for the 1. Energy 2. Water 3. Food 4. Environment 5. Poverty 6. Terrorism and War 7. Disease 8. Education 9. Democracy 10. Population Next 50 Years Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley
Canadian Oil Production Conventional, Oil Sands and Offshore Greg Stringham, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Overview and Outlook, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, June 2006.
US Energy Needs Continue to Grow http://wilcoxen.cp.maxwell.syr.edu/pages/804.html
Trend in U.S. Oil Imports en.wikipedia.org/wiki/foreign_oil
Source: World Resources Institute: "Thinking long term: U.S. oil security and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Decline in Mexico Oil Production http://www.writingshop.ws/html/meltdown.html
U.S. Dependency on Foreign Oil http://www.mitenergyconference.com/2007/files/unconventionaloilpanel.pdf
Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands Development, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
Counting on the Oil Sands
Oil Sands are Creating Jobs Across Canada Greg Stringham, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Overview and Outlook, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, June 2006.
Future Water Demands for In Situ Oil Sands Production in Alberta Source: The Pembina Institute..
Greenhouse Gas Emissions x2 The oil sands are the single largest factor in the growth in emissions. Even in the best-case scenario, emissions will double by 2015 in the oil sands industry. 2005 The Washington Post, Photo by Melinda Mara
Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands Development, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
Sulfur Blocks
Natural Gas Development for Oil Sands Production http://www.borealbirds.org/images/mackenzie-map.jpg
Market Potential Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands Development, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
NAFTA NAFTA has special energy provisions that respect Mexican nationalized oil NAFTA has no proportionality rule for Canadian oil only equal access which by proximity means U.S. is free to import as much as it wants
WHERE ARE WE? North American Energy Working Group Security and Prosperity Partnership Bilateral Clean Energy and Climate Change Science and Technology Agreement North American Carbon Project (US-MX) Presidents Task Force
PEAK OIL? Debatable End of cheap, easy, accessible oil Could we drill our way to more? Friendly oil Peak cheap oil?
KEYSTONE 1 173 Bb of oil worth $15T being mined at rate of 1.5Mb/d Half can be moved south through a 2,000- mile long $7B pipeline to Texas refineries and made available to world market Would create between 6000 and 20,000 jobs May demand natural gas from Alaska
KEYSTONE 2 Relatively small additional GHG component offset by C$15/t charge and sequestration Leaks in current pipelines (more corrosive?) raise risk to Great Lakes and Ogallala aquifer if issues of pressure, thickness and inspections are not resolved First Nation concerns(water)
KEYSTONE 3 Department of State Presidential Permit Insider negotiations Outsourcing the environment Interdependence, enabler, mass exporter, conservation killer Role and power of states
LAND SEIZURE Voluntary purchase or Condemnation for Eminent Domain in the Public Good Appropriate now before the permit? 56 cases already TransCanada or U.S. Keystone Pipeline State right or court jurisdiction
Billion Gallons Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org NEED? 160 U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption, 1950-2010, with Projection for 2011 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: EPI from EIA
CHINA Northern Gateway pipeline Sinopec bought Daylight (which owns 320K acres of Canada) for $2.1B cash Consistent violator of WTO subsidy rules for rare earths and renewable energy Control of the sealanes NAFT is both fair and tariff-free
BIG PICTURE US-MX relations Merida and Beyond Four Pillars Strong Resilient Communities USAID and State Alliance Border Research Partnership
RE IS Regional Security Jobs and Economic Development Quality of Life Environmental Quality Climate Change Mitigation
RE IS Resilience (Richness and Resistance) Community driven State-level controlled Pillar Relationship building (Plan Nord and US)
NAGES North American Greenhouse Gas Exchange Strategy Undeniable U.S. thirst for oil paid for and met by Canadian oil sands (for additional GHG increment as a security premium ) (sequestration as enhanced oil recovery) who buy offsetting credits from Mexico who modernizes PEMEX, builds mass transit, efficiencies, and renewable energy projects
CONTACT INFO WWW.NACTS.ASU.edu NACTS@ASU.edu 480-965-1846
Why and how develop and exchange renewable energy across the border Fall 2011 Rick Van Schoik Director, NACTS