Current Economic Review April 16, 2014 Brian Bonnenfant Project Manager Center for Regional Studies University of Nevada, Reno 784-1771 bonnen@unr.edu
230,000 225,000 **Peak = 228,100 Emp **Start of Great Recession Monthly Employment - Reno/Sparks MSA 220,000 215,000 Feb-13 Unemployment Rate: 10.1% (Not Seasonally-Adjusted) 210,000 205,000 200,000 Jan-Dec 2006 +13,300 Employees Jan-Dec 2007 +7,100 Employees Jan-Dec 2008-7,000 Employees Jan-Dec 2009-4,700 Employees Jan-Dec 2010 +5,900 Employees Jan-Dec 2011 +6,700 Employees Jan-Dec 2012 +8,900 Employees Feb 2014 Total = 200,100 (+5.4%) Feb13-Feb14: +10,200 Jan-Dec 2013 +15,000 Employees 195,000 **End of Great Recession Feb12-Feb13: +3,600 190,000 185,000 180,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
10,000 Month Over Month Employment Change - Reno/Sparks MSA 5,000 0 Recession -5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000 2007 Avg = 223,917 2008 Avg = 214,858 (-4.0%) 2009 Avg = 194,883 (-9.3%) 2010 Avg = 190,067 (-2.5%) 2011 Avg = 189,075 (-0.5%) 2012 Avg = 190,800 (+0.9%) 2013 Avg = 196,425 (+2.9%) Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
Employment Increases by Sector Between Jan 2013 & Jan 2014 - Reno MSA (% of sector) Professional & Business Services 2,200 8.7% Construction 2,000 24.1% Leisure & Hospitality 1,500 4.5% Retail 1,000 4.8% Education and Health Services 900 4.1% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 500 3.9% Manufacturing 500 4.3% Wholesale 400 4.7% Financial Activites 400 4.3% Local Government 100 0.7% TOTAL 9,500
Employment Decreases by Sector Between Jan 2013 & Jan 2014 - Reno MSA (% of sector) State Government -400-4.2% TOTAL -400
40000 Employment by Industry - Western Nevada Region 35000 Construction Manufacturing 30000 Transp. & Warehousing Retail 25000 Finance & Insur. Prof. & Tech. Services 20000 15000 Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Waste Services Educ. Services Health Care 10000 Gaming Industry Bars & Restaurants 5000 0 (Through 2nd quarter 2013. Source: Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation QCEW data) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government Carson City & Douglas, Lyon, Storey, & Washoe Counties
Wages, Inflation, & Employment Washoe County, Nevada Source: Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation 2008-2013 3Q 2013 % of Total Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* % Ch. Empl. Empl. Natural Resources and Mining $ 64,220 $ 75,192 $ 115,180 $ 132,808 $ 81,588 $ 66,820 4.0% 342 0.2% Construction $ 49,660 $ 49,348 $ 48,100 $ 48,672 $ 49,556 $ 47,545-4.3% 10,687 5.6% Manufacturing $ 53,924 $ 52,936 $ 51,896 $ 53,560 $ 53,300 $ 51,619-4.3% 11,843 6.2% Trade, Transportation and Utilities $ 36,764 $ 37,024 $ 37,492 $ 38,064 $ 38,688 $ 39,849 8.4% 42,567 22.4% Information $ 50,596 $ 51,532 $ 54,028 $ 58,084 $ 59,852 $ 58,864 16.3% 1,930 1.0% Financial Activities $ 52,364 $ 51,272 $ 52,832 $ 54,964 $ 58,448 $ 59,991 14.6% 9,115 4.8% Professional and Business Services $ 50,128 $ 50,440 $ 50,856 $ 53,092 $ 54,496 $ 51,965 3.7% 27,026 14.2% Education and Health Services $ 48,776 $ 48,828 $ 48,672 $ 48,932 $ 50,128 $ 48,412-0.7% 36,801 19.3% Leisure and Hospitality $ 22,256 $ 21,840 $ 21,788 $ 22,152 $ 21,944 $ 22,325 0.3% 35,901 18.9% Other Services $ 31,148 $ 33,072 $ 33,904 $ 34,684 $ 36,244 $ 36,157 16.1% 5,428 2.9% Public Administration $ 58,448 $ 59,488 $ 59,592 $ 60,372 $ 59,800 $ 60,857 4.1% 8,608 4.5% Unclassified $ 58,240 $ 66,456 $ 72,176 $ 72,644 $ 59,852 $ 65,815 13.0% 139 0.1% All Industries $ 42,172 $ 42,224 $ 42,380 $ 43,004 $ 43,576 $ 43,229 2.5% 190,387 100.0% * Through 3rd Quarter 2013 2008-2013 Wage Growth Inflation > Inflation 31.1% Consumer Price Index (West; <1.5M) -0.6% 1.0% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 6.3% < Inflation 68.9%
Per Capita Income - 2012 Per Capita Per Capita Per Capita Earned Income Unearned Personal (by Place of US US US Income Income Area Name work) RANK RANK RANK Douglas, NV $ 22,214 1,232 $ 17,913 31 $ 54,199 191 Washoe, NV $ 27,692 716 $ 12,076 172 $ 43,396 683 Carson City, NV $ 34,478 358 $ 10,089 361 $ 42,236 782 Esmeralda, NV $ 27,790 707 $ 9,615 448 $ 44,201 625 Churchill, NV $ 31,753 495 $ 7,981 837 $ 47,464 427 Storey, NV $ 50,625 75 $ 7,121 1,153 $ 34,656 1,768 Mineral, NV $ 19,129 1,662 $ 7,104 1,157 $ 34,965 1,704 Nye, NV $ 16,783 2,028 $ 7,047 1,178 $ 33,773 1,930 Clark, NV $ 26,647 804 $ 6,954 1,222 $ 36,676 1,437 White Pine, NV $ 30,612 552 $ 6,469 1,404 $ 41,843 814 Humboldt, NV $ 36,830 279 $ 6,457 1,408 $ 45,690 510 Lincoln, NV $ 15,878 2,167 $ 6,208 1,514 $ 25,507 3,016 Above Median Lyon, NV $ 12,350 2,667 $ 5,914 1,674 $ 30,368 2,511 Below Median Lander, NV $ 49,435 84 $ 5,584 1,874 $ 47,999 397 Eureka, NV $ 246,849 2 $ 5,534 1,906 $ 40,304 964 Elko, NV $ 28,756 652 $ 5,259 2,075 $ 42,201 784 Pershing, NV $ 19,016 1,690 $ 4,130 2,709 $ 27,703 2,859 Total Number of Counties: 3,113 Unearned income includes rents, interest, & dividends Source: Bureau of Economic Analyses
25.0% Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% -15.0% NEVADA CLARK WASHOE BALANCE -25.0% 1Q - 2005 1Q - 2006 1Q - 2007 1Q - 2008 1Q - 2009 1Q - 2010 1Q - 2011 1Q - 2012 1Q - 2013
Jan-14 = +0.5% Feb-14 = -2.6%
Downtown Reno Sparks Suburban Reno Non-Gaming 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FY2008 Annual Change in Cash-Occupied Rooms *Through February 2014 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014* -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 6,000,000 Visitors - Washoe County Jan & Feb 2014: -1.0% 5,500,000 5,000,000 Downtown Reno Suburban Reno Sparks Non-Gaming Average Cash Rates $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 4,500,000 4,000,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014* $50.00 *Through February 2014
440,000 420,000 400,000 Washoe County Population Estimates (2000-2013) 433,731 429,908 425,710 421,407 432,324 427,704 417,379 421,593 380,000 360,000 340,000 320,000 341,935 341,415 Washoe County (State Demographer) Washoe County (Census Bureau) 300,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobility in Past Year by Age Range of Resident Washoe County, Nevada Source: US Census Bureau Moved from Different County or State 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007-2012 % ch. Total: 23,474 24,997 18,503 25,226 23,527 22,833-2.7% 1 to 4 years 1,151 1,618 1,091 1,397 1,180 849-26.2% 5 to 17 years 3,069 3,229 2,004 2,694 3,354 2,468-19.6% 18 and 19 years 2,506 2,112 1,352 1,957 2,049 2,795 11.5% 20 to 24 years 2,517 3,381 1,465 3,173 3,005 4,084 62% 25 to 29 years 3,035 2,690 2,010 2,924 3,161 2,508-17.4% 30 to 34 years 1,601 1,958 1,234 2,767 1,030 2,084 30.2% 35 to 39 years 1,355 1,618 1,650 1,433 2,216 1,216-10.3% 40 to 44 years 1,501 1,697 893 1,559 1,378 886-41.0% 45 to 49 years 1,951 1,545 593 1,754 1,640 1,084-44.4% 50 to 54 years 1,175 967 1,697 901 1,186 1,699 44.6% 55 to 59 years 1,125 907 1,021 2,294 846 894-20.5% 60 to 64 years 1,146 742 1,559 792 486 929-18.9% 65 to 69 years 220 640 733 418 694 714 224.5% 70 to 74 years 419 441 465 609 446 165-60.6% 75 years and over 703 1,452 736 554 856 458-34.9% 65 years and over 1,342 2,533 1,934 1,581 1,996 1,337-0.4% 2007-2012 % Change is 10%-49% 2007-2012 % Change is 50%-99% 2007-2012 % Change is 100% or Greater
1,200 New Monthly Home Foreclosures & Notice of Defaults - Washoe County 1,000 Notice of Default Foreclosures 800 600 400 Homeowner Bill of Rights Implemented October 2013 200 Assembly Bill 284 Implemented October 2011 0 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
$270,000 $260,000 Median Sales Price of Short-Sales, Bank-Owned Resales, & Non-Distressed Sales Washoe County (Single-Family Homes) $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Median Sale Price: Short Sale, MLS Median Sale Price: Non-Distressed, MLS Median Sale Price: Bank Owned, MLS Median Sale Price: All Homes, MLS $90,000 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
$400,000 $350,000 $350,000 Annual Change 1Q13-1Q14: 19.0% Greater Reno-Sparks Median Price Quarterly Change 2Q13: 13.2% 3Q13: 2.3% 4Q13: 0.0% 1Q14: 2.6% 1% Quarterly Appreciation Rate $300,000 Peak (4Q05): $155,031 "Bubble" $268,330 $250,000 $225,700 $200,000 $194,969 $150,000 $100,000 1990-2001 = 0.97% average appreciation rate per quarter (blue trendline) 1q02 2q02 3q02 4q02 1q03 2q03 3q03 4q03 1q04 2q04 3q04 4q04 1q05 2q05 3q05 4q05 1q06 2q06 3q06 4q06 1q07 2q07 3q07 4q07 1q08 2q08 3q08 4q08 1q09 2q09 3q09 4q09 1q10 2q10 3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14
Number of New Home Sales 140 120 100 91 80 60 40 20 0 81 114 128 131 117 111 112 67 54 25 2008: 1,063 sales (89/month) 32 4040 New Single-Family Home Sales & Median Values - Washoe County 6464 61 102 65 48 69 66 73 2009: 739 sales (62/month) 47 27 28 49 Number of New Home Sales Median New Home Sales Price 61 58 77 27 23 2010: 527 sales 49 44 44 40 (44/month) 22 38 33 29 45 42 43 36 32 21 2011: 427 sales (36/month) Peak: (Feb-06) $423,311 Peak: (Nov-05) 315 Sales Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 47 39 25 19 38 30 55 48 44 72 52 59 60 2012: 546 sales (46/month) 44 52 53 34 45 52 74 98 90 74 77 40 25 2013: 714 sales (60/month) 67 75 $400,000 $350,000 $329,364 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Median New Home Sales Price
Single-Family Home Resales by Price Range Washoe County 2010 % of Total 2011 % of Total 2012 % of Total 2013 % of Total 2010-2013 Percent Change $0 - $99,999 580 11.0% 1,024 17.6% 904 15.0% 296 4.9% -49.0% $100,000 - $199,999 2,646 50.0% 2,985 51.4% 2,931 48.7% 2,356 39.2% -11.0% $200,000 - $299,999 1,191 22.5% 1,067 18.4% 1,272 21.1% 1,843 30.7% 54.7% $300,000 - $399,999 401 7.6% 341 5.9% 454 7.5% 716 11.9% 78.6% $400,000 - $499,999 214 4.0% 150 2.6% 182 3.0% 319 5.3% 49.1% $500,000 - $749,999 164 3.1% 131 2.3% 178 3.0% 294 4.9% 79.3% $750,000 - $999,999 61 1.2% 52 0.9% 51 0.8% 83 1.4% 36.1% $1M & Greater 38 0.7% 54 0.9% 44 0.7% 102 1.7% 168.4% Total SF Resales: 5,295 100.0% 5,804 100.0% 6,016 100.0% 6,009 100.0%
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