The acquired plants operations are more profitable than BCORP s given the brand equity, RM linkage and high pricing in Bihar/WB markets.

INDUSTRY CEMENT CMP (as on 3 Sep 2015) Rs 454 Target Price Rs 565 Nifty 7,823 Sensex 25,765 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters BCORP IN/BRLC.BO No. of Shares (mn) 77 MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 35/528 6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 11 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 564 / 385 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 11.9 1.3 (16.8) Relative (%) 15.9 14.2 (11.7) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 62.90 FIs & Local MFs 17.50 FIIs 1.27 Public & Others 18.33 Source : BSE Ankur Kulshrestha ankur.kulshrestha@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7346 Execution is the key Birla Corp s (BCORP) acquisition of 2 Lafarge plants (5.15 mtpa) for an enterprise value of Rs 50bn will scale up capacity (by more than 50%) at a reasonable price (US$150/t). The acquired business is far more profitable than Birla Corp s existing operations, which have been hobbled by issues. Given the difference in the on-ground perception of Lafarge (premium) vs. Birla Corp, replicating the current profitability will be a major challenge. Also acquired in the deal are Concreto and PSC brands, adequate reserves of limestone, and the management team. The Jojobera plant has slag/fly ash linkage with Tata Steel (near Jamshedpur). Lafarge s other plants do not have slag cement. The acquired plants operations are more profitable than BCORP s given the brand equity, RM linkage and high pricing in Bihar/WB markets. The deal will be funded through debt and internal accruals (Net cash ~Rs 6.4bn, as on March 31, 2015). Birla Corp will have a net D/E of ~1.75 at the given purchase price. While the Concreto brand sells at a headline premium of ~Rs 25/bag compared with the PSC brand, our interactions with market participants suggest that the net premium is far lower because of higher handling and packaging charges. COMPANY UPDATE 3 SEP 2015 Birla Corp BUY Pricing is a key challenge: Our discussions with market participants show that replicating Lafarge s profitability will not be easy for Birla Corp. It is believed that this can be achieved by housing acquired assets in a separate subsidiary, aggressively retaining talent, and keeping the channels for acquired and own brands separate to ensure premium pricing. Valuations and view: With the addition, BCORP will benefit through consolidation of its capacity. It has been struggling with clinker capacity addition. Given the new capacity s disproportionate share in the EV, executing the absorption is now a key driver for the stock, which has been undervalued because of issues in obtaining limestone leases in Chanderia. With BCORP s execution track record (~2x capacity in 10 years with net cash), we maintain our faith. Adjusted for the acquired capacity, Birla Corp now trades at US$85/t. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 565. Our numbers do not reflect contribution from the acquired businesses. FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 29,705 31,523 34,861 41,418 44,548 EBITDA 2,565 3,017 3,722 5,993 7,258 PAT 1,407 1,756 1,855 3,615 4,707 Diluted EPS (Rs) 18.3 22.8 24.1 46.9 61.1 P/E (x) 26.6 19.7 17.8 9.1 7.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 11.3 9.3 7.7 4.4 2.8 RoE (%) 5.7 6.8 6.9 12.4 14.4 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

5.15 mtpa capacity (3.09 mtpa clinker) acquired from Lafarge Given the difference in on-ground perception of Lafarge (premium) vs. Birla Corp, replicating the current profitability will be a challenge PROFILE OF ACQUIRED ASSETS Plant State Clinker Cement Details Sonadih Chhattisgarh 3.09 0.55 Clinker capacity in 2 lines: 4,350 TPD, setup in 1993 and 5,000 TPD setup in 2009 Jojobera Jharkhand 4.60 Situated near Tata Steel, Jamshedpur Total 3.09 5.15 Other assets Concreto PSC Fly ash cement (no brands included) Lafarge s premium slag cement sells at Rs 25 premium vs. its own brands. Produced only in the Jojobera plant due to slag availability. Comprises ~35% of the total volume from the two units combined Flagship slag cement brand, again produced only at Jojobera. It sells at a premium to other slag cements because of Lafarge association. We believe it will be a key challenge for Birla Corp to get a similar pricing as Lafarge Lafarge sells PPC under the brand name Duraguard, and it is sold at a premium to other PPC brands because of Lafarge association. However, Duraguard is not part of the transaction. We believe ~40% of the volumes from the two plants are PPC and it is unlikely that Birla Corp will get similar pricing as Lafarge Geographic spread of the consolidated entity BCORP may supply its Durgapur operations from the Sonadih integrated plant, deriving some synergies from the acquisition Page 2

BCORP s acquisition appears reasonable in light of recent transactions, given the superior profitability profile of the operations RECENT TRANSACTION COMPARABLES Period Acquiror Seller Capacity Location (Region) May 13 JSW Steel Heidelberg 0.6 Maharashtra (West) May 13 Barings (PE) Lafarge India 10.4 East 195 Aug 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Aug 14 CRH Group (Via My Home Cements) UltraTech Cement Dalmia Bharat Shree Cements Sree Jayajothi Cement Jaiprakash Associates Jaiprakash Associates Bokaro GU Jaiprakash Associates Panipat GU Valuation (us$/t) Comments 27 3.2 AP (South) 72 Standalone GU, which Heidelberg bought from IndoRama in March 2006 Strong valuations due to high profitability of Lafarge units CRH essentially bought out the EPC contractor, who converted the receivable into debt, then equity 4.8 Gujarat (West) 125 JPA's plants in Kutch and Ahmedabad 2.1 Jharkhand (East) 92 1.5 Haryana (North) 40 Sep 14 Sagar Cements BMM Cements 1.0 AP (South) 90 Dec 14 UltraTech Cement Birla Corporation Aug 15 Ltd Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Jaiprakash Associates MP Capacity Lafarge Assets in East (5.15 mtpa) 4.9 MP (Central) 135 5.2 East 149 Only grinding unit acquired and hence, valuation is very high. However, there are purchase agreements with JPA and SAIL for clinker and slag respectively, which may justify the valuations Fits in well with Shree Cement's North presence BMM Cement is in southern AP. Also has slag availability Appears high, but is around 135/t adjusted for excess clinker capacity (5.1 mtpa) and excess CPP (155MW) Assets divested as part of CCI conditions imposed on Lafarge's merger with Holcim Page 3

Existing operations have been hobbled by issues, which have prevented the company from adding clinker capacity Key issues/ops Current operations Chanderia Satna Acquired business Size relative to existing ops Comments Operations currently hamstrung because of restrictions on limestone mining. BCORP can only mine limestone through mechanical means at Chanderia, thereby increasing costs and limiting output. It also needs to purchase limestone externally at high costs. Satna ops supply clinker to Raebareli (0.75 mtpa) and Durgapur (2.3 mtpa). A mining lease held by the company (earlier in a subsidiary, Talvadi Cement, later amalgamated) has been cancelled by MP High Court and the matter is sub-judice In our understanding, the cancelled lease was crucial for the clinker expansion plans of the company The acquired ops account to ~50% of current operational capacity. The B/S will get stretched with a net cash co. moving to ~1.75x net debt/equity once transaction is completed As the profitability of the existing business is lower due to the issues mentioned earlier, the acquired business will likely be bigger in absolute profitability as well. Key challenges include the large size of acquisition relative to existing operations, realising the brand premium that Lafarge did, and weakening East region dynamics Realising the brand premium East dynamics Birla Corp s existing brands are non-premium and are priced much lower than the acquired brands. Concreto/PSC are amongst the highest priced cement brands in West Bengal/Bihar. BCORP s key challenge will be realising the same brand value once Lafarge brand name disappears from the cement bags Further, ~35-40% production from the acquired assets is PPC, where the better priced brand, Duraguard has been retained by Lafarge. As such, it will be sold under BCORP brands and will not be sold at prices Lafarge Duraguard commands. We understand that the recently commissioned capacities of Shree Cement (Raipur, Aurangabad) and JK Lakshmi (Durg) are putting considerable pressure on existing cement makers. Upcoming capacities of Emami Cement, UltraTech and JK Lakshmi will increase the supply pressures further. Page 4

Birla Corp trades at an adjusted EV/t US$85 after the acquisition. We believe the valuation upside is now limited PEER VALUATIONS Company MCap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs) Reco TP (Rs) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) EV/T (US$) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E UltraTech Cement 826.8 3,004 NEU 3,046 16.1 11.1 30.9 20.3 219 197 Shree Cement 1,2 378.9 10,877 NEU 10,358 14.3 11.1 28.9 21.4 229 217 Ambuja Cement 3 335.6 218 NEU 210 16.9 8.8 32.9 16.1 155 151 ACC 3 262.4 1,395 SELL 1,303 15.7 9.8 29.3 17.2 113 109 Ramco Cements 76.3 321 SELL 299 10.3 8.3 21.5 14.9 135 131 Orient Cement 34.9 170 BUY 210 17.0 8.4 30.3 14.2 92 89 Birla Corp 34.5 454 BUY 565 10.5 5.7 18.6 9.5 85 85 India Cements 22.7 74 NEU 85 5.6 4.1 9.4 4.6 57 55 Sanghi Industries 1 11.0 50 BUY 85 4.8 3.1 9.2 5.7 57 47 Mangalam Cement 5.9 222 BUY 340 9.0 3.1 20.0 3.9 45 36 Note: Prices as of 3 Sep 2015 close. US$: INR = 65 1 June Year End; 2 SRCM EV/T adjusted for power division valuation at 5.0 FY17 EV/EBITDA, 3 December Year end Only EV/T nos for Birla Corp adjusted for acquisition. Other nos do not include acquired capacity pending further clarity KEY ASSUMPTIONS Year ending March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Cement volumes (mn t) 7.31 7.62 8.09 8.84 8.84 Realisations (Rs/t) 3,742 3,834 4,026 4,429 4,783 P&F cost/t (Rs/t) 1,050 1,138 999 1,076 1,107 Raw material cost/t (Rs/t) 677 672 800 832 889 Freight cost/t (Rs/t) 914 1,079 1,133 1,181 1,251 EBITDA/t 288 320 383 601 736 Note: EBITDA/t calculated assuming zero contribution from Jute. Acquired business impact not included in the numbers Changes to estimates mainly on account of weak pricing CHANGES TO ESTIMATES Old New % Change FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Volumes (mt) 8.41 8.84 8.1 8.8-3.8% -0.1% Realisations (Rs/T) 4,121 4,627 4,026 4,429-2.3% -4.3% Revenues (Rs mn) 36,800 43,048 34,861 41,418-5.3% -3.8% EBITDA (Rs mn) 4,189 6,703 3,722 5,993-11.2% -10.6% PAT (Rs mn) 2,876 4,911 1,855 3,615-35.5% -26.4% Page 5

1QFY16 Recap Cement volumes continued to remain weak Realisations suffered as prices weakened Sales volume (mt) YoY(%) Cement realisations (Rs/T) YoY (%) 2.5 mnt 25.0 4,500 Rs/T % 25.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 - (5.0) 4,000 3,500 3,000 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 - (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) 0.0 (10.0) 2,500 (20.0) 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 Birla Corp delivered EBITDA/t of Rs 224/t, as pricing continued to remain weak. However, profitability was aided by weaker energy prices Pricing weakness continues to weigh on EBITDA/t 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 EBITDA/T (Rs) YoY (%) Rs/T % 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - (50.0) P&F cost moderation aided EBITDA P&F Costs/T RM cost/t Freight cost/t 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 (100.0) 0 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 Page 6

INCOME STATEMENT Year ending March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net sales 29,705 31,523 34,861 41,418 44,548 Growth % 15.9 6.1 10.6 18.8 7.6 Material expenses 18,425 19,510 21,066 23,959 25,062 Employee expenses 2,216 2,255 2,480 2,728 3,001 SG&A expenses 6,958 7,317 8,213 9,421 9,978 Operating profits 2,107 2,441 3,101 5,310 6,507 Operating profit margin (%) 7.1 7.7 8.9 12.8 14.6 Other operating income 458 576 621 683 752 EBITDA 2,565 3,017 3,722 5,993 7,258 EBITDA % 8.6 9.6 10.7 14.5 16.3 EBITDA Growth % (34.7) 17.6 23.4 61.0 21.1 Other income 1,249 1,559 1,058 1,054 1,170 Depreciation 1,326 1,535 1,717 1,822 1,874 EBIT 2,488 3,042 3,062 5,225 6,554 Interest 965 860 743 706 671 PBT 1,523 2,181 2,319 4,519 5,883 Tax 225 425 464 904 1,177 PAT 1,298 1,756 1,855 3,615 4,707 EO items (net of tax) (109) (78) - - - APAT 1,407 1,834 1,855 3,615 4,707 APAT growth (%) (47.9) 30.4 1.1 94.9 30.2 EPS 18.3 22.8 24.1 46.9 61.1 EPS Growth (%) (47.9) 24.8 5.6 94.9 30.2 BALANCE SHEET Year ending March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share capital 771 771 771 771 771 Reserves 24,491 25,471 26,788 29,865 34,033 Total shareholders funds 25,262 26,242 27,559 30,635 34,804 Long-term debt 9,163 11,018 5,634 5,530 4,000 Short-term debt 4,950 2,081 6,673 6,673 6,673 Total debt 14,113 13,099 12,306 12,203 10,673 Deferred taxes 2,342 2,429 2,429 2,429 2,429 Long-term provisions & others 3,157 3,843 3,843 3,843 3,843 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 44,874 45,613 46,137 49,111 51,749 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net block 18,649 19,226 20,508 19,687 18,813 CWIP 1,417 1,227 2,727 3,227 3,727 Investments, LT Loans &advances 2,375 2,553 2,553 2,553 2,553 Inventories 5,151 5,521 5,733 7,060 5,646 Debtors 747 881 838 1,205 992 Cash & equivalents 19,641 19,467 16,771 19,154 23,164 ST loans & advances, others 806 1,036 1,036 1,036 1,036 Total current assets 26,344 26,906 24,379 28,455 30,839 Creditors 1,547 1,881 1,612 2,393 1,765 Other current liabilities & provns 2,364 2,418 2,418 2,418 2,418 Total current liabilities 3,912 4,299 4,030 4,811 4,183 Net current assets 22,433 22,607 20,349 23,644 26,656 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 44,873 45,613 46,137 49,110 51,748 Page 7

CASH FLOW Year ending March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Reported PAT 1,298 1,756 1,855 3,615 4,707 Non-operating & EO items (1,462) (979) (1,058) (1,054) (1,170) PAT from operations (164) 777 797 2,561 3,537 Interest expenses 856 783 743 706 671 Depreciation 1,326 1,535 1,717 1,822 1,874 Working capital change 1,207 (313) (438) (912) 999 OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 3,225 2,781 2,820 4,177 7,080 Capex (1,726) (1,918) (4,500) (1,500) (1,500) Free cash flow (FCF) 1,499 863 (1,680) 2,677 5,580 Investments (0) 5 0 0 0 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,726) (1,914) (4,500) (1,500) (1,500) Share capital issuance 0 0 0 0 0 Debt issuance 1,752 (1,575) (793) (103) (1,530) Interest expenses (856) (783) (743) (706) (671) Dividend (538) (538) (538) (538) (538) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 358 (2,896) (2,074) (1,348) (2,739) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 1,857 (2,028) (3,754) 1,329 2,841 Non-operating and EO items 1,249 1,559 1,058 1,054 1,170 Closing cash & equivalents 19,641 19,467 16,771 19,154 23,164 KEY RATIOS PROFITABILITY (%) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EBITDA margin 8.6 9.6 10.7 14.5 16.3 APAT margin 4.7 5.8 5.3 8.7 10.6 RoE 5.7 6.8 6.9 12.4 14.4 RoIC 8.8 10.4 11.6 24.6 43.2 RoCE 6.2 6.8 7.0 12.1 14.0 EFFICIENCY Tax rate (%) 14.8 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 Inventory (days) 67 62 59 56 52 Debtors (days) 9 10 9 9 9 Payables (days) 17 20 18 18 17 Cash conversion cycle (days) 59 52 50 48 44 Debt/EBITDA (x) 6.3 5.6 4.1 2.3 1.8 Net D/E N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M Interest coverage 2.5 3.1 4.2 7.5 9.7 PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) 16.9 22.8 24.1 46.9 61.1 CEPS (Rs/sh) 34.1 42.7 46.4 70.6 85.5 DPS (Rs/sh) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 BV (Rs/sh) 328.1 340.8 357.9 397.8 452.0 VALUATION P/E 26.6 19.7 18.6 9.5 7.3 P/BV 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA 11.3 9.3 8.1 4.6 3.0 OCF/EV (%) 12.1 10.8 10.2 16.6 36.1 FCF/EV (%) 5.6 3.4 (6.1) 10.6 28.4 FCFE/Market Cap (%) 58.9 51.1 (42.5) 94.2 189.3 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Page 8

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY 650 600 550 Birla Corp TP Date CMP Reco Target 6-Nov-14 525 NEU 490 6-Feb-15 469 BUY 590 8-May-15 418 BUY 565 3-Sep-15 454 BUY 565 500 450 400 350 300 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 9

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