CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Dr. Justin Ram Director of Economics Caribbean Development Bank Conference Centre February 7, 2018
Agenda 01 The global picture 02 Caribbean economic review and outlook 03 Framework for a more resilient caribbean
The global picture
Global outlook is more positive with the LAC region improving, but still lagging behind 3.2 3.7 3.9 Real GDP Growth (%), 2016 2018 4.7 4.9 4.4 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.9-0.7 World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Latin America and The Caribbean Source: IMF WEO Update January 2018 2016 2017 2018
Risks and opportunities RISKS Continued uncertainty in U.S. Policy Weakening U.S. Dollar Geopolitical risks BREXIT China rebalancing Global tightening Non-inclusive growth Natural disasters and extreme weather OPPORTUNITIES Rising commodity prices U.S. fiscal stimulus Continued China stimulus Rapid advancement of AI Strengthening pound Recovery in Brazil and Latin America
Caribbean economic review and outlook
Last year s growth rates ranged from -6.9% to 4.5% Estimated 2017 GDP Growth % 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 4.5% BMC Average = 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% DOM ANG BVI SUR TT SVG BZE BAH BAR HAI MON JAM CAY SKN GUY SLU ANT TCI GRE -1.2% -1.0% -3.5% -2.7% -6.9% Source: IMF WEO, Central Banks, CDB
Average BMC growth is consistently lower than other small and developing states 8 Real GDP Growth (%), 2009 2017 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Emerging market and developing economies Other Small Developing States World Advanced economies CDB Borrowing Member Countries -2-4 Source: IMF, WEO, CDB
Commodity prices still relatively low & visitors arrivals have recovered Gold Index Jan 2014 - Dec 2017 Crude Oil (US$/bbl) Jan 2014 Dec 2017 Visitor Arrivals 120 120 110 100 100 80 +3.7% 90 80 70 60 40 1.4% +1% 60 50 20 0 2015 2016 2017 Sources: IMF, CTO
Many BMCs have had double-digit rates of unemployment for more than a decade Unemployment Rate (%) 2017 estimate unless otherwise noted SVG (2015) GRE SLU ANT (2015) DOM JAM BAR BAH BEL SUR TT CAY 5 4.3 10.4 10.2 10 9.4 9.1 14.1 13.9 20 24 25 Sources: IMF, Statistical Offices, CDB
Regional rankings: World Bank Doing Business Reports 2016-2018 119 positive reforms (2016-2018) 10. Enforcing Contracts 11. Resolving Insolvency 1. Ease of Doing Business Rank 151 101 51 2. Starting a Business 3. Dealing with Constructio n Permits Best Performer: Jamaica (70 th ) 11 negative reforms (2016-2018) 9. Trading Across Borders 1 4. Getting Electricity Most Reforms: Jamaica (11) Source: World Bank 8. Paying Taxes 7. Protecting Investors 6. Getting Credit 5. Registering Property 2017/2018 2016/2017 2015/2016
Regional debt levels are still unsustainably high 2016 2017 Change in % BAR 161.5 157.1-4.4 JAM 119.4 113.4-6.0 BZE 92.3 93.9 +1.6 ANT 82.5 78.3-4.2 SVG 82.1 77.2-4.9 DOM 72.7 72.7 -- BAH 68.0 72.7 +4.7 SLU 66.7 67.0 +0.3 GRE 76.3 66.3-10.0 SKN 64.8 64.6-0.2 2016 2017 Change in % SUR 68.8 63.2-5.6 TT 58.8 60.1 +1.3 ANG 60.6 56.8-3.7 GUY 45.7 45.2-0.5 HAI 33.7 32.6-1.1 BVI 18.8 18.7-0.1 CAY 16.3 14.7-1.6 TCI 7.6 7.4-0.2 MON 5.1 6.1 +1.0 Source: Central Banks
Some foreign currency reserves are below the global benchmark Pacific Island Small States 5.9 Venezuela 5.9 Dominican Republic 3.0 LAC 11.3 2017 Latest Available 12 Barbados As at end of 2016 10 The Bahamas 8 6 4 1.7 2.4 2 3.0 Suriname 3.6 Guyana 0 3.6 Antigua and Barbuda Trinidad and Tobago 9.0 4.4 Belize Source: Central Banks 8.5 Dominica 7.8 St. Kitts & Nevis Haiti 5.9 5.0 Saint Lucia 5.1 5.8 Grenada Jamaica
CDB estimates that the region will grow at 2% in 2018 2018 Forecast 2017 Estimate 6.4% 7.0% 5.3% BMC average = 2% 4.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8% 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% BAR TT SUR BZE SVG BAH MON JAM HAI BVI SLU SKN CAY GUY GRE TCI ANT DOM ANG -1.0% -1.2% -2.7% -3.5% Source: CDB -6.9%
A framework for a more resilient Caribbean
Regional Challenges Macroeconomic Low growth average 0.4% over a decade High debt regional median 65% of GDP Low commodity prices and declining reserves Low Productivity & Competitiveness Jamaica is the 70 th country in the WB Ease of Doing Business Index highest BMC Large infrastructure gaps Weak governance Inefficient and costly transport links and high energy costs Poor Human Development High poverty (43.7%) and youth unemployment (18-47%) Poor education outcomes, skills mismatch and brain drain High crime and citizen insecurity Environmental Threats High annual natural disaster costs Low insurance payouts Insufficient building codes Poor climate change adaptation tools
A Caribbean blueprint Macroeconomic Economic growth and diversification Strong / resilient financial sector Fiscal rules, e.g., Debt-to-GDP limits Productivity & Competitiveness Private sector-led growth Opening new trade markets Regional payments facility (Fintech) First class and costeffective infrastructure Human Development Good quality education for all Workforce skills training based on employers needs Conditional cash transfers to the most vulnerable Regional Integration Sustainable Society Environmental Preparedness Strict building code compliance CCRIF, indemnity insurance, resiliency funds Environmental tools Climate change adaptation tools Microcredit for recovery lending Gender Equality
Thank you