#### This update: () 9-Mar-1 16 17 Next update: -May-1 - Directorate A - Policy, strategy and communication 9-17 1-17 11-17 1-17 1-1 -1 LTA (1) 16 17 17Q 17Q3 17Q 1Q1 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-1 Feb-1 1. Output Economic Sentiment indicator 1. 1.3 11.7 19. 111. 11.3 11. 113. 11. 11.3 11.9 11.1 Industrial confidence -6.1 -.7. 3.3..3 6.7..1. 9.. Services confidence 9.7 11. 13. 1.9 16.9 1. 16. 16. 1. 16. 17. Industrial production 1.3 1.3 1. -.. 1.3. (excluding construction).9 1..9.6 3.6.3 3. 3.9 3.7. Gross domestic product Labour productivity.3.7.3.7.6 1..7 1...3.. 1..7.7. Private consumption Consumer confidence -1.3-7. -. -.7-1. -. -1. -1.1.. 1..1 Retail confidence -7.7 1. 3.3 3..9.3 3...3 6...3 Private consumption Retail sales..9.3.6..3.9-1.. -1.1 1.3 1.. 1.. 1.9.7 1.9.6 1.. 3.9.3 3.7.1.3 3. Investment Capacity utilisation level (%) 1.1 1. 3..6 3. 3.. 3.. Production expectations (manuf.) 6.3.3 1. 13. 1.9 1. 1. 17.6 1. 1.9 19. 16. Gross fixed capital formation - equipment investment - construction investment. 1.7..9 -. 1.3.7.9 6..9.6.1.6 3... 3. 6..3. 6..6. Change in stocks contrib. to GDP (pp.). -..1.. -.. Labour market Employment expectations (manuf.) -9.1-1. 6..1 7. 7. 9.1 1.3 1.3 1. 9.9 Employment expectations (services).6. 11.3 11. 1. 1.1 11.9 1.1 11. 13.1 1. Employment... 1.3 1.7 Employment () abs. ch. on prev. period, 6 6 Compensation of employees per head.. (nominal).1 1.3 1.7 Unemployment expectations. 1.3.6. 3. 3.6.. 3.6. -1.3 1. Unemployment rate % of lab. force 1. 9.1 9.1 9..7.9..7.6.6 Unemployment () abs. ch. on prev. period -1,19-1, - -6-39 -1-13 -11-1 -1. International transactions World trade.6 1. 1.1.1-1..7.3 1...3..6.3.3.9. Export order books -1.1-11.9 -.. -. 1. 1.1.7.9 3.3. Trade (merchandise) billion EUR 6. 3.7.1 6. 6.9 3. 19.. 3. Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services 1. 1..6 1.9 1.1.9.7 3...9..... 6.1 3.7 Current-account billion EUR 367.6 391..9 1. 9..7 3.3 3. 9.9 Direct investment billion EUR... 1.9 -.3 1..3-17. -33. Portfolio investment billion EUR 16.6 3.9 6. 1. 111.3 9. 6.6 3.7 31.9 6. Prices Consumer inflation expectations.1 13.7 13. 1. 1.7 1. 1.9 13.6 19.6 1. Headline inflation (HICP). 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.3 Core HICP. 1.1 1. 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1. Domestic producer prices -.3 3.1 3....9... 1. Import prices -.1.9 1.7 1. 1. level.1.7.. 61. 7.7 6.9 6.3 69. 6. Oil (Brent) in USD -6.9.7 17..1 9.1.1 7..7-1. 1.3. 11..3 3. 16.9. 17.3 level.. 6.1.. 9.1 3.6.3 6.6 3. Oil (Brent) in EUR -9.9-3. 17..7 9. 1..3-6. - 1.9 1.. 1.1.6 3... 1. Non-energy commodity prices (EUR) -11. -. -.1 -. -.6 1.. 1..1 -. 9.1.9. -.6.3.7-6. -1. -11.1-13. 7. Monetary and financial indicators Nominal interest rates (3 month) level -.6 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 Nominal interest rates (1 year) level.13.37.3..3.3.37.3..73 ECB repo rate level.1......... Stock market (Eurostoxx) 6. -1.9 3.3 3.1 -.3-1. 1. -.1-1.7 16. 19.3 16.9 16. 1.9 19. 11. 9..1 Money demand (M3)....9....9.6.6 Loans to households..9.6.7.9.7.7..9.9 Loans to non-financial corporations.3 3.1.. 3.1..9 3.1 3.1 3. level 1.11 1.13 1.1 1.17 1.1 1.1 1.17 1.1 1. 1. Bilateral exchange rate EUR/USD 3.3 6.7. -1. -.1.9 3. 1.3 -.3. -..3 9.3 6.6.7 1. 1.9 16.1 Nominal effective exchange rate 1. 3.6.1 -. -.1.3.6....7 3.9. 3.7...9 6.6 (1) LTA=Long-Term Average () Data available until the date of update 1
1. Output Real GDP in the euro area continued growing in the fourth quarter of 17. According to Eurostat s estimate (released on 7 March), it increased by.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). As compared to 16-Q, real GDP increased by.7% year-on-year (y-o-y). Over the whole year 17, GDP rose by.3% in the euro area. According to the Commission s winter 1 interim forecast, released on 7 February, GDP growth is projected at.3% in 1 and.% in 19. The European economy has performed better than expected in the second half of 17 and survey data suggest that growth momentum should remain robust in early 1. In February 1, the Commission s Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased slightly by. points to 11.1, while remaining at historically high levels. The softening of the euro-area indicator resulted from decreases across all sectors except for services. The drop was marked among consumers, while smaller in the industry, retail trade and construction sectors. By contrast, confidence in services improved. Industry confidence decreased by 1. point in February, resulting from a strong reduction in managers production expectations, while their assessments of the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products remained broadly stable. The PMI Composite Output Index for the euro area fell to 7.1 in February, from January s near 1-year high of.. The manufacturing sector again registered stronger output growth than services. Both sectors also continued to enjoy the best periods of expansion for seven years. In December, industrial production rose by.% month-on-month (m-o-m), due to production of durable consumer goods rising by.7%, intermediate goods by 1.%, energy by 1.3% and non-durable consumer goods by.7%, while production of capital goods fell by 1.1%.. Private consumption In 17-Q, the growth of private consumption decreased to.% q-o-q (.3% in 17-Q3) and contributed.1 pps. to GDP growth. With respect to the same period of the preceding year, private consumption was up by 1.%. In February, consumer confidence decreased 1.3 pts. reflecting more negative assessments of all its components KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA In January, the volume of retail trade decreased marginally by.1% compared to December 17, due to falls of.3% for non-food products and of.% for food, drinks and tobacco, while automotive fuel rose by.3. In February, retail trade confidence went lower (-.9 pts.), which resulted from more negative views on both the present and the expected business situation, while managers assessment of the adequacy of the volume of stocks remained virtually unchanged. 3. Investment In 17-Q, gross fixed capital formation increased by.9% (q-o-q) in the euro area. As compared to 17-Q, it increased by.%. In 1-Q1, the rate of capacity utilisation in manufacturing (conducted in January) increased to.% (.6 pts. higher than in 17-Q), approaching further the historical maximum value of.1% registered in 7-Q. The rate of capacity utilisation in services offset the previous quarter s decline by returning in 1-Q1 to 9. (+.6 pts.).. Labour market Labour market conditions continue to improve. In January, the unemployment rate was.6%, unchanged from December and thereby at the lowest level since December. Compared to January 17, unemployment was down by 1. pp. In 17-Q3, seasonally-adjusted employment was.% higher than in 17-Q and 1.7% higher than in 16-Q3. According to the Commission s survey results, in February employment expectations were revised downward somewhat from historically high levels across business sectors. The decrease was small in industry and construction, while employment plans declined more markedly in services and retail trade.. International transactions In December, the world trade volume (goods) increased.3% m-o-m, after a.7% increase in the previous month. In February, views on export order books in manufacturing were slightly more negative (. pts., decrease by. pts.). In December, the seasonally adjusted trade was in surplus at 3. bn, from. bn in November. The seasonally adjusted current-account also recorded a surplus in December ( 9.9 billion). This reflected surpluses for goods ( 3.9 billion), services ( 7.3 billion) and primary income ( 3.7 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income ( 1. billion).
6. Prices In February 1, the rate of annual HICP inflation is estimated to have decreased to 1.% (1.3% in January), according to Eurostat s Flash estimate. Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in February (.1%, compared with.% in January), followed by services (1.3%, compared with 1.% in January), food, alcohol and tobacco (1.1%, compared with 1.9% in January) and non-energy industrial goods (.7%, compared with.6% in January). Core inflation (all items excluding energy and unprocessed food) is estimated to have remained stable at 1.%. The Commission s winter 1 interim forecast projects HICP inflation at 1.% in 1 and % in 19. According to the Commission surveys, consumer price expectations decreased in February to 1. pts. (from 19.6 pts. in January). In January, industrial producer prices went up by.% compared with December 17. Compared to January 17 they were 1.% higher. Brent crude oil prices had ended 17 at three-year highs and continued their upward movement in early January, reflecting tighter market conditions. But thereafter upward revisions to the supply outlook, reflecting mainly increased levels of oil production in the US, put pressure on oil prices. On March, Brent crude traded at 63.61 USD/bbl. (corresponding to 66.1 EUR/bbl.). 7. Monetary and financial indicators Money market interest rates have in recent months remained close to the ECB s deposit facility rate. On March, the 3-month EURIBOR was at -37%. At its meeting on March, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB policy interest rates unchanged and continued to expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases, i.e. the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at.%,.% and -.% respectively. As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, monthly asset purchases in 1 will be at the monthly pace of 3 billion until September 1, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA Benchmark sovereign bond yields in the euro area have increased in recent months, mainly reflecting revised market expectations of future monetary policy decisions. On March the benchmark sovereign bond yield in the euro area stood at.63%. According to the January 1 bank lending survey, loan growth has continued to be supported by increasing loan demand across all categories and easing credit standards for loans to households. In the fourth quarter of 17, credit standards for loans to enterprises were unchanged, whereas credit standards on loans to households for house purchase eased. These developments reflected competitive pressures and reduced risk perceptions related to the improved economic outlook. In January 1, monetary developments were characterised by a slight growth moderation. The annual rate of change of M3 remained unchanged at.6%. The annual growth of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales, securitisation and notional cash pooling) increased to 3.3% (from.9% in December). In particular, the annual growth of adjusted loans to households stood unchanged at unchanged at.9%, and the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increased to 3.% (from 3.1% in December). At its meeting on 3-31 January, the Federal Reserve s FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 1.% to 1.%. It reiterated that the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labour market conditions and a sustained return to percent inflation. On 7 March, the US 3-month Libor rate stood at.7%. With regard to foreign exchange markets, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been fluctuating between 1.19 and 1. since the beginning of 1. In mid-february the euro was trading vis-à-vis the US dollar near its highest in more than three years, standing on March at 1.1. Stock market indices around the world had moved up strongly until early 1. Between January 17 and January 1 (monthly average), the EURO STOXX had increased by 7.6% (the Nikkei had gained 3.% and the Standard&Poor s increased by.6%). The declines observed in stock markets in early February 1 have only partly offset previous gains, in particular as markets stabilised and recovered in the subsequent days. 3
1. OUTPUT GDP..7.6...3..1. qoq %.7.7.6.6. 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 GDP and Economic Sentiment Indicator.6 17Q 17Q BE. DE.6 EE. IE EL ES.7 FR.6 IT.3 CY 1.1 LV.3 LT 1. LU MT NL. AT. PT.7 SI. SK.9 FI.7 EA.6 Contributions to GDP growth pps. (qoq) 1. 1...6... -. -. 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q net exports domestic demand inventories GDP growth (qoq %) Industrial and services confidence 6 indicator 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 1-1 - 3 1 - - Employment () -6 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 GDP (lhs) economic sentiment (rhs) 7 7 6-3 - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 industrial confid. and long-term average (lhs) services confid. and long-term average (rhs) -1 - -3 Industrial production 1 1 - -1-1 - - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 3-month moving average industrial production Dec-17 BE -.9 DE 6. EE 7.1 IE 3. EL.3 ES 6. FR.6 IT.9 CY 1. LV. LT 7.6 LU -. MT -.3 NL 3. AT.9 PT.6 SI 1. SK -1. FI.3 EA. GDP growth divergence, euro area*.... 3. 3... 1. 1.. pps.. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 standard deviation of qoq growth standard deviation of yoy growth * Calculations since 1 without Ireland.
. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Private consumption 17Q BE.1 qoq %. DE. EE.6.7 IE EL.6. ES.6. FR... IT.1 CY..3 LV 1..3 LT 1..3 LU.. MT NL -.3.1 AT.3 PT.3. SI 1. 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q SK. FI.7 EA. Retail sales Dec-17 BE -. DE. EE 1. 6 IE 7.6 EL.3 ES. FR.3 IT.9 CY.9 LV 6.3 LT.6 - LU. MT 1. NL.1 AT.1-6 PT. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 SI 1.7 retail sales 3-month moving average SK.7 FI.3 EA 1.9 Households: real disposable income and consumption.. 3.. 1.. -1. -. -3. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 real disposable income private consumption Household adjusted gross disposable income 1...6... -. -. Consumer confidence and private consumption.. 3.. 1.. -1. -. -3 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 private consumption (lhs) consumer confidence and long-term average (rhs) Households: actual saving rate and expected savings 3.. 1.. -1. -. pps. pps. 16Q 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q wages (received) gross operating surplus and mixed income net property income and other current transfers social benefits - taxes gross disposable income (q-o-q%) -3. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 17Q3 household saving rate - difference to the same quarter of the previous year (lhs) expected savings (over next 1 months) (rhs) 1 - -1-1 - - -3 - -6 - -1-1 -1-16 -1
3. INVESTMENT Gross fixed capital formation qoq % 3. 3... 1.7 1. 1..7.... -. -. 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 Equipment and construction investment.9 17Q 17Q BE. DE. EE -1. IE EL ES.7 FR 1. IT 1.7 CY LV -. LT 7. LU MT NL. AT. PT.3 SI.1 SK -1. FI -. EA.9 Gross fixed capital formation and corporate loans 1 - -1-1 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 gross fixed capital formation (lhs) loans to non-financial corporations (rhs) Equipment investment and capacity utilisation 1 1-1 1 level (%) 6 7 - - 76-1 -1 7-16 -16 7 - - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 - - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 7 6 equipment investment construction investment equipment investment (lhs) capacity utilisation in manufacturing (rhs) Equipment investment and production expectations Gross fixed capital formation and profit share 1-1 1 - -1 3 1 % of GDP % of GDP 3-1 -16 - -1 - - -3 19 1 1-1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1-3 17 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 equipment investment (lhs) production expectations in manufacturing (rhs) gross fixed capital formation (nominal) (lhs) profit share (nominal) (rhs) 6
. LABOUR MARKET Employment.6...3..1. Actual and structural unemployment rate 1. 1. 11. 11. 1. 1. 9. 9... 7. qoq %. 16Q.3 16Q3 % of labour force. 16Q 7. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 actual unemployment rate structural unemployment rate 17Q3 BE. DE. EE 1.3 IE EL.1 ES.7 FR. IT. CY.7 LV. LT -. LU.7 MT 1. NL. AT. PT.6 SI.7 SK.6 FI.1 EA. Jan-1 BE 6.6 DE 3.6 EE IE 6.1 EL 9. ES. FR. IT.3 CY 7.3 LV LT 7. LU.9 MT 7.9 NL.3 AT. PT 3. SI 16.3 SK 11.1 FI 9. EA.6 Compensation per head and negotiated wages (nominal). 17Q1. 17Q. 17Q3 Employment and employment expectations 3... 1. 1... -. -1. -1. -. -. Unemployment rate and unemployment expectations 1. 1. 11. 11. 1. 1. 9. 9... 7. 7. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 unemployment rate (lhs) consumer unemployment expectations (rhs) 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 employment (lhs) employment expectations (whole economy) (rhs) % of labour force Labour costs in the private business sector (nominal) 16 1 - -1-16 - - 7 6 6 3 3 1 1 -... 3.. 3. 3. 3..... 1. 1. 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1. 1... -. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 compensation per employee negotiated wages total wage costs non-wage costs 7
. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Exports and imports of goods and services Exports and export order books. 1. 1. 1. 1...6.. qoq %.6. 1.. 1.3 1. 1..6 1.1 1.9 1 1 1 6 - -6-1 -1 1-1 - -3 - -6. 16Q3 16Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q -1 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1-7 exports imports exports of goods and services (lhs) export order books and long-term average (rhs) World trade 16 1 - -1-16 - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Extra euro-area trade bn EUR 16 1 - -1 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 world trade (goods) 3-month moving average extra-euro area trade 3-month moving average Extra- and intra-euro-area trade (of nominal values) 3 3 1 1 - -1-1 - - -3 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Current-account bn EUR 3 1-1 - -3 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 extra-euro-area exports intra-euro-area-trade extra-euro-area imports current account 3-month moving average
6. PRICES Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) 1 16 1 1 1 6-1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 HICP min HICP max HICP HICP flash Breakdown of core inflation 7 6 3 1 Feb-1 HICP headline and core inflation Jan-1 BE BE 1.7 DE 1.. DE EE. EE 3. IE IE.3 3. EL. EL.6 ES 1. 3. ES 1. FR 1.3. FR 1.1 IT.7. IT. CY -. 1. CY -.9 LV 1. LV 1. 1. LT 3.1 LT 3. LU 1.1. LU 1.1 MT 1.. MT 1. NL -. NL 1.1 AT -1. AT.1 PT.7 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 PT 1. SI 1. SI 1.1 HICP SK.1 SK.3 Core inflation (all items excl. energy and unproc. food) FI.6 FI. Core inflation flash EA 1. EA 1. Energy and unprocessed food yoy% 16 1 - -1-1 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1-16 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 non-energy industrial goods services processed food energy unprocessed food Domestic producer prices and import prices 1 1 - -1-1 - 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Oil prices 1 1 13 1 11 1 9 7 6 3 level 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 domestic producer prices import prices oil prices and 3-month ma (USD/bl.) oil prices and 3-month ma (EUR/bl.) 9
7. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS Nominal interest rates % p.a. 6..... 3. 3... 1. 1... -. 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Loans to private sector and money supply 1 1 1 6-1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 repo rate short-term long-term loans to private sector M3 (centred ma) Real interest rates Euro vis-à-vis US dollar and JP yen % p.a.. 1. level level 1. 1.7 17 3.. 1.. -1. 1. 1. 1.3 1. 16 1 1 13 1 11 -. 1.1 1-3. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 long term (1-year yield government bonds) short term (3-months EURIBOR) 1. 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 EUR/USD and 3-day ma (lhs) EUR/JPY and 3-day ma (rhs) 9 Stock market indices index, 1.1.1999=1 3 3 6 1 16 1 1 1 6 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Nominal effective exchange rates index, =1 1 13 1 11 1 9 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 1 Eurostoxx Dow Jones Nikkei Euro area United States Japan 1
General government -1 - -3 - -6-7 % of GDP 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 Primary 3 1-1 - -3 % of GDP 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 Cyclically adjusted primary KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA. PUBLIC FINANCES tax burden 17 General government expenditure and receipts 17 BE -1. % of GDP BE 3.9 3 DE.9 DE 39. Expenditures EE -. EE 33.3 1 IE -. IE 3.1 EL -1. 9 EL 3. ES -3.1 ES 33. FR -.9 7 FR 6.1 IT -.1 IT. CY 1.1 CY 3. LV -.9 LV 3.3 Receipts LT.1 3 LT.6 LU. LU 37. MT.9 1 MT 3.1 NL.7 Tax burden NL 3.7 AT -1. 39 AT. PT -1. PT 3. 37 SI -. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 SI 36. SK - SK 3.3 FI -1. FI.9 EA -1.1 EA. 17 Cyclically adjusted 17 BE 1.1 % of GDP BE -1. DE.1 -. DE.9 EE -. -1. EE -1.1 IE IE -1.3 EL. -1. EL. ES -.6 -. ES -3.1 FR -1.1 FR -. IT 1.7 -. IT -1. CY 3. -3. CY. LV. LV -1. LT 1.3-3. LT -. LU.. LU.6 MT. MT. NL 1.7. NL.6 AT.9 AT -.9 -. PT. PT -1.7 SI 1. -. SI -1.7 SK -.3 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 SK - FI -. FI -1. EA.9 EA -.9 17 General government debt 17 % of GDP BE 1. % of GDP BE 13. DE.1 9 DE 6. EE -1. EE 9. 1 IE. 9 IE 69.9 EL.7 EL 179.6 ES -.6 ES 9. FR -.6 FR 96.9 IT. IT 13.1 CY. CY 13. LV -. LV 39.1-1 LT.3 LT 1. LU.9 7 LU 3.7 MT.3 MT.9 - NL NL 7.7 AT 1. 7 AT 7.6 PT.3 PT 16. -3 SI.9 6 SI 76. 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 SK -.3 1 3 6 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 16 17 SK.6 FI -.1 FI 6.7 EA 1.1 EA 9.3 * Figures are from the Commission's autumn 17 forecast 11
Indicators as from 11 refer to Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Estonia (EE), Ireland (IE), Euro area Greece (GR), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK) and Finland (FI). Indicator Note Source 1. Output Sentiment Indicator The economic sentiment indicator is the weighted average (of the industrial confidence indicator (%), the services confidence indicator (3%), the consumer confidence indicator (%), the construction confidence indicator (%) and the retail trade confidence indicator (%)). Data are seasonally adjusted. Industrial confidence indicator The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the s (%) referring to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks (the latter with inverted sign) from the survey of manufacturing industry. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted. Services confidence indicator The services confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the s (%) referring to the questions on business situation and recent and expected evolution of demand from the survey of services. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted. Industrial production Monthly Industry Production Index (1=1), NACE Rev., Total industry Eurostat (excluding construction). Mom% and qoq% ch. are seasonally and working day adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day adjusted. Gross domestic product Real gross domestic product at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes (1), Eurostat ESA 1), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Labour productivity Labour productivity defined as the difference between GDP growth and employment Eurostat growth. GDP divergence Standard deviation of GDP growth rates of the euro-area Member States. Eurostat. Private consumption Consumer confidence indicator The consumer confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the s (%) referring to the questions on the financial situation of households, general economic situation, unemployment expectations (with inverted sign) and savings; all over next 1 months. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted. Retail confidence indicator The retail confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the s (%) referring to the questions on the present and the future business situation and the volume of stocks (with inverted sign). The long-term average refers to the period from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted. Private consumption Real household & NPISH final consumption expenditure at constant market prices Eurostat (chain-linked volumes (1), ESA 1), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Retail sales Retail trade (NACE Rev. G7) excluding motor vehicles, motorcycles; Deflated Eurostat turnover, mom% ch. and qoq% ch. are seasonally adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day adjusted. 3. Investment Capacity utilisation In percent of full capacity in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted (collected in January, April, July and October). Production expectations Production expectations in manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Gross fixed capital Real gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes Eurostat formation (1), ESA 1), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Equipment investment Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, Eurostat reference year (1), ESA 1), EUR, real machinery and equipment and weapons systems. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Construction investment Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, Eurostat reference year (1), ESA 1), EUR, dwellings and other buildings and structures. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Change in stocks Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables (at prices of previous Eurostat year). Profit share Ratio of nominal gross operating surplus and gross mixed income to nominal GDP Eurostat 1
. Labour market Employment expectations (manufacturing) Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Employment expectations (services) Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the services sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Employment expectations (whole economy) Weighted average of managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the manufacturing (19%), services (6%), construction (6%) and retail sectors (1%). Weights in brackets according to value-added share on GDP of the respective sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Employment Total domestic employment (number of persons). Data are seasonally adjusted for Eurostat Ireland, Greece, France, Cyprus, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia, and seasonally and working day adjusted data for the remaining Member States. Compensation of employees per head Nominal compensation of employees divided by the number of employees. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Unemployment expectations Consumers' unemployment expectations over the next twelve months. Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rate Harmonised unemployment rate (in percent of labour force), ILO definition. Data Eurostat are seasonally adjusted. Structural unemployment rate Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Data are seasonally adjusted. Total labour costs Nominal wage- and non-wage costs less subsidies in the private business sector. Eurostat Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Wage costs Nominal wage and salary costs include direct remuneration, bonuses, and Eurostat allowances, payments to employees saving schemes, payments for days not worked and remuneration in kind. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Non-wage costs Nominal non-wage costs include the employers social contributions plus Eurostat employment taxes less subsidies. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Labour productivity Ratio between GDP and employment. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.. International transactions World trade Volume, 1=1, seasonally adjusted CPB Export order books Managers' export order expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Extra-euro area exports Nominal extra-euro area exports of goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat Extra-euro area imports Nominal extra-euro area imports of goods, cif. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat Extra-euro area trade Difference between extra-euro area exports and extra-euro area imports. Data are Eurostat seasonally adjusted. Intra-euro area trade Nominal intra-euro area trade in goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat Current-account Transactions in goods and services plus income and current transfers between ECB residents and non- residents of the euro area. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Exports of goods and services Exports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, Eurostat reference year 1), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, Eurostat reference year 1), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Direct investment Nominal transactions/positions in assets abroad by euro-area residents less ECB nominal transactions/positions in euro-area assets by non-residents. To be regarded as a direct investment, ownership in an enterprise must be equivalent to more than 1% of the ordinary shares or voting power. Portfolio investment Nominal transactions/positions in securities (including equities) abroad by euroarea residents less nominal transactions/positions in euro-area securities (including equities) by non-residents. To be regarded as a portfolio investment, ownership in an enterprise must be equivalent to less than 1% of the ordinary shares or voting power. ECB 13
6. Prices HICP Harmonised index of consumer prices (index 1=1) Eurostat Core HICP HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food (index 1=1) Eurostat Producer prices Domestic producer price index, total industry excluding construction (index Eurostat 1=1) Selling price expectation Managers' selling-price expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. Import prices Import price index, manufacturing (index 1=1) Eurostat Oil prices Price of north sea Brent in USD/barrel and EUR/barrel ICE Non-energy commodity prices Market price for non-fuel commodities in EUR terms (index 1=1) HWWI 7. Monetary and financial indicators Nominal interest rate (3-month) 3-month EURIBOR interbank rate (36 days) ECB/ Global Insight Nominal interest rate (1-year) 1-year interest rate on government bonds for euro area (based upon the 1-year German government bond) ECB/ Global Insight ECB repo rate Minimum bid rate of main refinancing operations, end of period. ECB/ Global Insight Money demand (M3) Monetary aggregate including currency in circulation (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, all other deposits and repurchase agreements. Data are seasonally adjusted. Loans to private sector Loans by MFI (monetary and financial institutions) to euro area residents (excl ECB government). Data are seasonally adjusted. Real long-term interest rates Nominal interest rate (1-year) deflated by HICP index Real short-term interest rates Nominal interest rate (3-month) deflated by HICP index Stock markets Eurostoxx, Dow Jones and Nikkei indices (1.1.1999=1) Global Insight Exchange rates EUR/USD and EUR/JPY reference rates ECB Nominal effective exchange rate Graph Monthly Nominal Effective Exch. Rates vs. rest of IC36 (index = 1) Table - ECB Nominal effective exch. rate, based on weighted averages of bilateral euro exchange rates (EA19) against the currencies of the EER-1 group. ECB / ECB. Public finance General government Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government Primary government Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government minus interest payment Cyclically adjusted Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government corrected for the influence of the business cycle Cyclically adjusted primary Primary government corrected for the influence of the business cycle General government expenditures and receipts General government debt Nominal expenditures and receipts; tax burden includes taxes on production and imports (incl. taxed paid to EU), current taxes on income and wealth (direct taxes) and actual social contributions Cumulative sum of net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) positions of general government 1