The impact of pension reforms on intergenerational equity in France Xavier Chojnicki, Université de Lille Julien Navaux, Université Paris Dauphine, Paris School of Economics Lionel Ragot, Université Paris-Ouest-Nanterre-La-Défense, CEPII Global NTA Workshop, June 21 24, 2016, Saly, Senegal
1979 1984 1989 1995 2000 2005 2011 Ratio Public transfer inflows 4,0 3,5 3,0 3,2 Ratios of public transfers inflows 60+/25-59 and 0-24/25-59 Per capita - France 1979-2011 2,9 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,3 60+/25-59 0-24/25-59 1,0 0,5 0,0 Year Source: d Albis & Navaux, 2016
Issue Share of public transfers received by each age group France 1979-2011 1979 1989 2000 2011 0-24 yo 35.5% 31.1% 28.8% 26.1% 25-59 yo 28.8% 30.4% 29.4% 29.0% 60 yo + 35.7% 38.5% 41.8% 44.9% + 9 pts
Issues Pension reforms of the PAYG system in France: 1990 1993 2000 2003 2010 2013 Balladur Fillon Woerth Ayrault replacement rate retirement age contribution rate
Issues Two issues: What will be the allocation of public transfer inflows among age groups up to 2060? What are the impacts of previous pension reforms on intergenerational equity?
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
MELETE : An OLG model General equilibrium in a closed economy (Auerbach & Kotlikoff, 1987) OLG: includes the age structure of the population and the effects of reforms on intergenerational redistribution Intertemporal: Includes intertemporal choices over the life cycle (savings, education ) Computable: quantify the effects of population ageing and consider several scenarios of reforms
MELETE : An OLG model Socio-demographic unit: four young cohorts and sixteen adult cohorts: 0-4 yo up to 95 yo + three skill levels: low-skill (LS), medium-skill (MS) and high-skill (HS) Labor supply: Participation rate by age and by skill level (INSEE) Imperfect substitution between workers: wages depend the amount of work, experience & education The age of entry on the labor market is endogenous: individuals choose their skill level by a cost-benefit analyses Retirement depend on the participation rate by age and by skill level and on the retirement age Pensions are calculated on average annual wages of the 25 best years
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
Calibrations Population: INSEE (Blanpain et Chardon, 2010) Fertility rate: 1.95% Net migration: 100,000 people Share of people aged 60+: 26% in 2010 / 45% in 2060 Growth and productivity: Scenario C of the COR (COR, 2015) GDP: 1.3%, 2011-2020 / 1.6%, 2020-2030 / 1.1%, 2030- NTA age profiles by skill level: Public transfer inflows: pensions, public health consumption, public education consumption, family benefits, Unemployment benefits, Solidarity incomes (RSA), housing benefits Public transfer outflows: VAT, IRPP, social security contributions Inheritances
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Calibrations 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8,9 8,5 5,5 Ratios of public transfers inflows 60+/25-59 Per capita - France 1979-2011 7,8 7,5 7,0 7,1 7,1 6,9 5,0 5,1 6,7 5,4 6,9 5,7 6,9 6,9 6,5 6,5 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,2 3,1 5,1 4,9 MELETE NTA (3) NTA (2) NTA (1)
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
4 scenarios A central scenario, based on the reforms implemented 3 scenarios: what happens if the cost of population ageing is only based on: Replacement rate? Retirement age? Contribution rate?
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
Intergenerational equity indicators 3 most common indicators (Blanchet, 1998, 2010 ; Bonnet, 2014) + choose a criterion for each indicator Indicator 1: Compare age groups Criterion: Stability of the relative situation of each age group Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Criterion: Each generation improves its position with respect to the previous generation at the same age Indicator 3: Compare the balance sheet of several generations over the entire life cycle Criterion: Each generation must receive more than its contribution
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Results Indicator 1: Ratios of public transfers inflows 60+ / 25-59 - Per capita 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 6,9 8,0 6,5 5,9 6,2 Central scenario Replacement rate scenario Contribution rate scenario Retirement age scenario 2 1 0 Year
Constant thousand euros Results Indicator 2: Cohort profiles - disposable income Central scenario 90 80 C 2005 70 60 50 40 C 1990 C 1970 C 1980 C 2000 30 C 1960 20 C 1950 C 1930 10 0 C 1940 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 Age
Constant thousand euros Results 90 Contribution rate scenario 90 Replacement rate scenario 90 Retirement age scenario C 2005 80 80 80 C 2000 70 70 C 2005 70 60 C 2005 60 C 2000 60 C 1990 50 C 2000 C 1990 50 C 1990 50 C 1980 40 C 1980 40 C 1980 40 C 1970 C 1970 C 1960 30 20 C 1970 C1960 C 1950 C 1940 C 1930 30 20 C 1950 C 1960 C 1940 30 20 C 1950 C 1940 C 1930 10 10 C 1930 10 0 20-24 35-39 50-54 65-69 80-84 95+ Age 0 20-24 35-39 50-54 65-69 80-84 95+ Age 0 20-24 35-39 50-54 65-69 80-84 95+ Age
Results Cover needs related to ageing 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005-2020 2020-2040 2040-2060 2005-2060 Replacement rate Retirement age Contribution rate Unmet need
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Results Indicator 3: Recovery rate 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Central scenario Replacement rate scenario Contribution rate scenario Retirement age scenario Birth cohort
Outline MELETE : An OLG model Calibrations 4 scenarios Intergenerational equity indicators Results Conclusion
Conclusion Academic contribution: Bridge between NTA and OLG models US: Lee et al., 2015 Spain: Paxtot et al., 2016 Canada: Georges et al., 2011, 2015 Nigeria: Olaniyan et al., 2015 France: Our contribution Empirical contribution: Free lunch inherent to the PAYG system Public transfer inflows: ratio 60+/25-59 decreases slightly Disposable income: from one generation to another for the young generations between working life and retirement