S&P/Case Shiller index Home price index Index Jan. 2000=100, 3 month ending 240 220 200 180 160 10-metro composite 140 20-metro composite 120 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc., Moody s Economy.com. 2010
Median existing single-family home price United States Percent change, year ago 20 10 0-10 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
Single-family housing starts United States Millions of units 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
Net additions to housing stock versus household formation Absolute change, year ago (millions) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 New households Net additions to housing stock 0.8 0.6 0.4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight, Moody s Economy.com.
Median single-family home sales United States Percent change, year ago 60 40 20 Existing homes 0-20 -40 New homes -60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
Housing inventory Existing, Single-family homes, United States Millions Months 4.0 11 3.5 Available homes for 10 sale (L) 9 3.0 8 2.5 2.0 1.5 Months supply (R) 7 6 5 4 1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 3 Sources: NAR, Moody s Economy.com
Delinquency rate far more severe in this recession Percent of loans past due vs. those in foreclosure Percent Percent 10 1.6 9 1.4 8 1.2 7 6 5 Percent in foreclosure (R) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 4 3 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 Percent of loans past due (L) 03 05 07 09 0.2 0.0 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
Percent of loans past due 30 days United States Percent Percent 3.8 Percent of loans past 1.6 3.6 due 30 days (L) 1.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 28 2.8 2.6 Percent in foreclosure (R) 1.2 1.0 0.8 06 0.6 0.4 2.4 2004 0.2 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
Percent of loans past due 90 days United States Percent Percent 5.0 1.6 Percent in foreclosure (R) 4.0 1.4 1.2 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 Percent of loans past due 90 days (L) 0.8 06 0.6 0.4 0.0 2004 0.2 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
Millions of mortgages under water Number of homeowners with negative equity Millions 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Sources: Equifax, Moody s Economy.com.
New modifications and payment plans implemented United States Thousands 200 150 100 50 0 Sources: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), Moody s Economy.com.
Mortgage rates United States Percent 10 8 1-year ARM 6 4 30-year fixed 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
Housing affordability United States Index 200 180 160 140 120 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com
Mortgage principal and interest payments Monthly payment amounts US$ 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
Homeownership rates United States Percent 69.5 69.0 68.5 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5 66.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com
Homeownership rates by age United States Percent Percent 44 82 Less than 35 years old (L) 65 years and over (R) 81 42 80 40 79 38 78 77 36 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 76 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com
Number of applications for conventional mortgages Index March 1990 = 100 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 ARM loans 2000 Fixed-rate loans 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
Government-backed mortgage originations As percent of total single-family originations Percent 20 15 10 5 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Sources: U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Moody s Economy.com.
Freddie and Fannie s share of residential mortgage debt outstanding Percent 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09* Sources: FHFA Annual Report to Congress, Enterprise Q3 financial statements, Federal Reserve Board, Huffington Post. *as of Q3
Median home prices in most expensive metros Ranked by biggest decline in 1-year period MSA Q4 10-yr growth 5-yr growth 1-yr growth San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA $566 49.3% -15.7% 13.3% San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $598 39.9% -9.7% 11.2% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA $389 60.6% -33.1% 7.4% Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA $455 48.9% -27.6% 5.3% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $317 83.2% -13.4% 4.1% Barnstable Town, MA $336 48.6% -14.7% 3.8% Boulder, CO $346 19.8% 12.7% 3.3% Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $391-14.8% -44.2% 1.7% Honolulu, HI $619 117.0% 25.1% 0.3% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA $350 74.0% -25.1% -0.4% Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH $339 32.1% -15.3% -1.0% Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT $390 15.2% -13.3% -1.7% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA $385 86.0% -4.6% -3.9% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $311 56.5% 4.3% -6.1% Naples-Marco Island, FL $323 49.1% -11.8% -18.1% U.S. average $169 26.8% -15.9% -3.7% Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody's Economy.com.
Impact of 10 percent decline in housing sales Impact over next four quarters Percent Category Decline Housing Market Real Gross Private Residential Investment -7.2 Real Gross Private Residential Investment in Equipment -6.9 Median Sales Price of New Single-Family Homes -2.2 Average Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes -2.1 Consumer Markets Real Consumer Spending on Furniture and Appliances -3.9 Real Consumer Spending on Other Durables Plus Med. Devices -1.8 Real Consumer Spending on Motor Vehicles and Parts -2.2 Consumer Spending on All Goods and Services -0.7 Business Investment Real Gross Private Nonresidential Investment in Equipment and Software -1.5 Real Gross Private Investment in Nonresidential Structures -1.4 Real Gross Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment -1.5 Employment Total Nonfarm -0.5 Civilian Unemployment Rate (DIFF) 0.4 Real Gross Domestic Product -0.8 Source: Milken Institute.
Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on single-family housing starts Millions, annual rate 1.8 1.6 Milken Institute projection 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Adjusted d housing starts if HAMP* ineffective 0.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: U.S. Census, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program
Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on new single-family home sales Millions, annual rate 1.4 Milken Institute projection 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Adjusted home sales if HAMP* ineffective 0.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: U.S. Census, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program
Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on existing single-family home sales Millions, annual rate 6.5 Milken Institute projection 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 2010 Adjusted home sales if HAMP* ineffective 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program
Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on median price of existing single-family home US$ thousands 230 220 Milken Institute projection 210 200 190 180 170 160 2010 2011 Adjusted home price if HAMP* ineffective 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program
Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on household holdings of real estate and other non-financial assets US$ trillions 40 Milken Institute projection 38 36 34 32 30 Adjusted net worth if HAMP* ineffective 28 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program
Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
Job market turning the corner Non-farm employment, United States Percent change, year ago 4.0 Difference from previous month 600 2.0 Absolute change, ths. (R) 400 200 0.0 0-2.0-200 -400-4.0-6.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 % change (L) 09 10-600 -800-1000 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent 7 6 5 10-year T- note yield 4 3 2 1 Federal funds rate 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
Employment by sector United States Percent change, year ago 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 2000 Manufacturing Construction Financial Activities 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
Unemployment rate remains at high levels Civilian unemployment rate Percent 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
Households shredding debt Financial obligations ratio Homeowners debt as percent of disp. income Percent 12.0 10.0 Mortgage debt 8.0 6.0 Consumer debt 4.0 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Economy.com
Real GDP outlook United States Compound annual growth rate 6 4 2 0-2 -4 Milken Institute projection -6-8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
Employment outlook United States Percent change, year ago 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0 Milken Institute t projection -6.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
Housing starts outlook United States Millions, annual rate 18 1.8 1.6 Milken Institute projection 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: U.S. Census, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
Interest rate outlook United States Percent 6 5 4 3 10-year T-note yield Milken Institute projection Fed funds rate 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
Core CPI outlook United States Percent change, year ago 3.0 Milken Institute projection 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
GSE & GNMA Shares Fell When Subprime Boomed; Today GSEs & GNMA Are Main Source of Funds 90% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% MBS Share Issuance (Percent of MBS Issuance) Annual (1985 ) Quarterly ( - ) 80% Conventional, Prime, Fixed-Rate Non-Traditional Lending Is Mainstay of Market (1985-2003) Lending Boom 70% (2004-H1) 10% 0% Subprime, 4 th quarter : FRE & FNM 68% Subprime Crisis, Private-label MBS Collapse (H2-) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Ginnie Mae Private-Label Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Source: Inside MBS & ABS (The Mortgage Market Statistical Annual - Volume II), Inside MBS & ABS (January 8, 2010). Ginnie Mae 28% Private-Label 4%
Population Turning 18 1960-2015 Millions 4.7 4.2 Million 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 Sources: US Census Bureau, RCG
Echo Boom Demographics Population projections for 20 to 34 years-old cohort Thousands 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Sources: Census, RCG
Growth in Population Aged 65+ Millions % of Total 100 25% 90 80 70 Population % of Total 20% 60 15% 50 40 10% 30 20 5% 10 0 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Census
US Immigration by Decade Thousands 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,795 9,095 8,000 7,000 7,338 6,000 5,736 5,000 4,000 4,107 3,322 4,493 3,000 2515 2,515 2,000 1,000 528 1,035 0 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s* *Estimate Source: Immigration Naturalization Service