The Economic and Fiscal Issues Facing Scotland, 2016-2020
The Economic & Fiscal Issues Facing Scotland: 2016-2020 Prof. Graeme Roy Fraser of Allander Institute
Two themes Current economic conditions & outlook New fiscal context
Quarterly Growth (%) GDP (Q1 2008=100) 2.0 Recovery continues just Quarterly Growth (LHS) 106 1.5 1.0 Index Level (RHS) 104 0.5 102 0.0 100-0.5-1.0 98-1.5 Source: Scottish Government 96-2.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 94
Quarterly Growth (%) 1.2 More challenging year than for ruk Source: Scottish Government & ONS 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0-0.2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 Scotland UK
% point from 2000-2008 average 4.0 Labour market - mixed signals Unemployment Rate (inverted) Employment Rate 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Dec-Feb 2006 Dec-Feb 2008 Dec-Feb 2010 Dec-Feb 2012 Dec-Feb 2014 Dec-Feb 2016-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0 Source: ONS & FAI Calculations Source: ONS
Index to Mean 2004-2007 103 Labour market - mixed signals Full Time Share Average Hours Worked Source: ONS & FAI Calculations 102 101 Source: ONS 100 99 98 97 96 95 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FAI Forecasts 2016 & 2017 5.0% 4.0% Data suggests 2016 remains challenging but still growth Source: FAI Economic Commentary: March 2016 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%
Opportunities & Challenges Immediate Current Outlook Domestic growth & global growth Brexit implications of yes or no votes Understanding the changing structure of labour market participation, skills, age profiles The North Sea retention/ diversification of skills & investment Fiscal - pressures on public sector spending & new tax/welfare powers Longer Term Participation, wellbeing & economic opportunity fair work & skills Productivity innovation, entrepreneurship, skills & education, investment Rebalancing investment, trade & manufacturing Global trends technology, demographics, trade, climate change Equality income & regional performance
Productivity Deficit with UK 0% Productivity some progress Output Per Hour Output Per Job 1998 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2014-1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Source: Scottish Government & ONS -9%
Total & Resource Fiscal DEL ( m in 15/16 prices) Capital Fiscal DEL ( m in 15/16 prices) Budget & Fiscal Context Total DEL (LHS) Resource DEL (LHS) Capital DEL (RHS) 30,000 Source: Scottish Government 3,160 29,000 3,140 28,000 3,120 27,000 3,100 26,000 3,080 25,000 3,060 24,000 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 3,040
New Tax Powers Tax Powers as Share of Onshore Revenues 14-15 Pre-Calman Pre-Smith Post-Smith (excl. VAT) Post-Smith (incl. VAT) Reserved Devolved/Assigned Revenues 16.1bn (excl VAT) 21.5bn (incl VAT) Reserved Revenues 30.2bn Source: Scottish Government GERS
Expenditure ( m) 1,600 1,400 1,465 Welfare Powers New Welfare Powers - 2.7bn in 14/15 Rising to > 3bn by 20/21 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 485 Source: Scottish Government GERS & FAI Calculations 203 184 200 164 92 77 7 4 3 0 Disability Disability Living Attendance Allowance Attendance Allowance Carer's Carer s Allowance Winter Personal Winter Fuel Fuel Payment Industrial Independence Personal Injuries Severe Industrial Payment Disablement Severe Cold Benefit Weather Allowance ColdFuneral Payment Funeral Sure Payment Start Sure Maternity Start Grant Living Allowance Allowance Payment Independence Injuries Disablement Weather Payment Maternity Allowance Payment Disablement Allowance Payment Grant Benefit
Scotland s new Fiscal Landscape Operational Block Grant Adjustment Levels vs. PCID (Review in 2021) Institutional Reform Fiscal Commission, intergovernmental relations Transparency Parliament/ independent scrutiny Macroeconomic stability borrowing for forecast errors and shocks Administration Start-up & running costs Interaction with UK Policy No Detriment Opportunities & Challenges Economic Performance Scotland s Tax Base & Long-term sustainability Income Tax revenue raised & economic impact/efficiency Other Taxes APD, Stamp Duty, Landfill & links to local taxation Double devolution Crown Estate & Assigned Income Tax Revenues Capital Investment prioritisation & repayments Welfare & Employability Investment linked to strategic approach to inclusive growth (existing devolved powers)
Operational issues Significant increase in responsibilities Highly complex framework limited international precedent Reform to procedures and processes e.g. timing of Budget Fiscal Commission will play a key role Intergovernmental relations good & bad times
The Block Grant Adjustment Assume forecasts are correct & no change in policy Steps Step 1: Block Grant Step 2: Adjustment for Tax Powers UK Government Spending Decisions Barnett Comparability Factors Consequentials Devolved tax revenues in Scot & UK Implement Comparable Deduction estimates of population growth & tax share Adjust for per-capita indexation Subsequently, additional adjustment to reconcile to outturn population & tax figures
Forecasting & reconciling revenues a complex process!! Summer/Autumn 2017 Fiscal Commission Forecast Income Tax Receipts for 18/19 [Tax Data from 15/16] Revenue Borrowing for Forecast Error not fully known until Summer 2020 Tax Year 18 19 BGA for 18 19 Block Grant Adjusted for outturn data Summer 2020: Outturn Income Tax Receipts for 18/19 known Repay Borrowing Over 5 Years Summer 2017 Spring 2018 Spring 2019 Summer 2020 Up to 2023 Summer/Autumn 2017 Assessment of Economic Performance for 18/19 Spring 2018 Revisit economy forecast with new data Revised Data both in Scotland & UK Revenue Borrowing for Asymmetric Shock Repay Borrowing Over 5 Years
Economic Performance Significantly enhanced link between Scotland s economic performance and budget outcomes Opportunity on many key indicators Scotland has outperformed the UK since devolution in 1999 Risks if Scotland grows more slowly, then budget will grow more slowly. Subtle differences in tax base, age profile and structural asymmetric shocks
Policy Opportunities How much flexibility over distinct social & economic model Balance revenue raising & investment in public services with support for growth Coordinated package of tax, welfare and investments in public services Careful consideration of impacts on labour market and business (tax elasticities & economic effects)
Opportunities & Challenges Immediate Current Outlook - Domestic growth & global growth Brexit implications of yes or no votes Changing structure of the labour market trends in participation and age profiles The North Sea retention/ diversification of skills & investment Fiscal - pressures on public sector spending & new tax/welfare powers Longer Term Participation, wellbeing & economic opportunity fair work Productivity innovation, entrepreneurship, investment & work force development Rebalancing investment, trade & manufacturing Global trends technology, demographics, trade, climate change Equality income & regional performance
Scotland s new Fiscal Landscape Operational Block Grant Adjustment Levels vs. PCID (Review in 2021) Institutional Reform Fiscal Commission, intergovernmental relations Transparency Parliament/ independent scrutiny Macroeconomic stability borrowing for forecast errors and shocks Administration Start-up & running costs Interaction with UK Policy No Detriment Opportunities & Challenges Economic Performance Scotland s Tax Base & Long-term sustainability Income Tax revenue raised & economic impact/efficiency Other Taxes APD, Stamp Duty, Landfill & links to local taxation Double devolution Crown Estate & Assigned Income Tax Revenues Capital Investment prioritisation & repayments Welfare & Employability Investment linked to strategic approach to inclusive growth (existing devolved powers)
The Economic and Fiscal Issues Facing Scotland, 2016-2020