WORKSHOP 3 What new investment products are on the horizon? Philip Falls, Practice Leader and Senior Investment Consultant, PBI Actuarial Andrew Sweeney, Vice President & Institutional Portfolio Manager, Phillips, Hager & North Marg Romanow, Benefits Officer, Saskatchewan Union of Nurses, Healthcare Pension Board Moderator: Stephanie Bertels, Chair, Board of Trustees Academic Pension Plan, Simon Fraser University BC Pension Leadership Forum 2018
Marg Romanow, Benefits Officer, Saskatchewan Union of Nurses, Healthcare Pension Board
WHAT ARE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS? Growing list of non-traditional investments Hedge Funds Private Equity Infrastructure Real Estate Commercial Mortgages Private Debt Corporate, real estate, infrastructure Real Assets Other commodities, timberland, farmland insurance linked securities, marine
ARE ALTERNATIVES WORTH THE INCREASED COMPLEXITY? Consider Plan objectives Current state and market environment What a new asset class can do for the Plan Process is key in fulfilling fiduciary duty
WHY ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS? Diversification Increased Returns Reduce risk Long Term Sustainability
SIPP Risk Analysis CURRENT STATUS OF YOUR PLAN Sustainability Study Long Term View Valuation Timing Short Term Funding Impact Industry Status Strategic Plan Goals and Objectives Forward Looking Returns
Understanding New Investment Products Philip A. Falls, MBA, CFA, ICD.D Partner, Senior Consultant PBI Actuarial Consultants Ltd. Suite 1200, 1166 Alberni Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3Z3 Canada T 604 408.2456 F 604 408.2525
We Select Investment Products After Considering Investment, Benefit and Funding Policies Benefit policy Investment policy Funding policy Policies are interdependent and must be managed concurrently This involves making tradeoffs Focus on the plan s objectives: Achieving a fully funded status? Improving/maintaining benefits? Building contingency fund? Lowering investment risk? Controlling contribution cost? PBI brings Pension Committee & Managers together to understand tradeoffs 8 Suite 1200, 1166 Alberni Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3Z3 Canada T 604 408.2456 F 604 408.2525
Simple thesis - Low Volatility Equities Low Volatility Equities & Private Debt: Expectations and Experience Expect the same or lower average returns than the regular indices but with much less volatility (2/3) Better risk adjusted returns are expected not a great match but better than regular equities Simple thesis Private Debt Expect higher rate of return 3-5% more for credit exposure High skill level required by the investment manager Credit rating BB-B: repayment does not represent a problem now but could be problematic in the future and probability of..repayment is weak and may cause a problem in the future 3 Suite 1200, 1166 Alberni Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3Z3 Canada T 604 408.2456 F 604 408.2525
A B+ rated company s risk is high as the probability of repayment is weak with cause for concern. Plain English interpretations of bond credit ratings Rating Ranks Average Quality 4 Source: PBI and internet. Suite 1200, 1166 Alberni Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3Z3 Canada T 604 408.2456 F 604 408.2525
What Happens To A/L Volatility If We Add Low Volatility Funds? Asset Mix Scenarios 60% Liability Aware Bonds + 40% Traditional Equity Funds 60% Liability Aware Bonds + 40% LV Equity Funds 100% Liability Aware Bonds + 0% Equities 92% Liability Aware Bonds + 8% Traditional Equity Funds 92% Liability Aware Bonds + 8% LV Equity Funds A/L Volatility 7.4 5.1 1.0 2.3 1.8 5 Suite 1200, 1166 Alberni Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3Z3 Canada T 604 408.2456 F 604 408.2525
Investing in New Capabilities February 2018 Andrew Sweeney, Vice President
Return (%) Return (%) New Capabilities Improve Risk-Return Profile 10 Low Volatility Equities 2 Direct Lending 3 10 8 6 30 Traditional Equities* 30 Low Vol Equities* 40 Universe Bonds Low Volatility Equities* Traditional Equities* 8 6 Direct Lending 60 Traditional Equities* 30 Universe Bonds 10 Direct Lending Traditional Equities* 60/40 Portfolio 60/40 Portfolio 4 2 DEX Universe Bond Index 4 2 DEX Universe Bond Index 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Annualized Standard Deviation (%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Traditional Portfolio New Portfolio Expected Return: 5.5% 5.2% Standard Deviation 8.4% 6.9% Sharpe Ratio 0.43 0.50 CVaR 95-16.3% -12.5% Traditional Portfolio New Portfolio Expected Return: 5.5% 6.0% Standard Deviation 8.4% 8.5% Sharpe Ratio 0.43 0.49 CVaR 95-16.3% -17.8% 1 Refer to appendix for modelling assumptions and disclosures. 2 Equity allocation split 50% traditional equities and 50% low volatility equities along the efficient frontier. 3 Fixed income allocation split 75% DEX Universe Bond Index and 25% direct lending along the efficient frontier. * Traditional and low volatility equities split 33% Canadian and 67% global. Hypothetical performance analyses are for illustrative purposes only and there is no guarantee that hypothetical returns or projections will be realized. 13
Why Low Volatility Equities? Risk Reduction Frees Up Risk Budget What They Are What They Are Not What they target Superior risk-adjusted returns Market-relative returns Definition of risk Downside risk Underperforming the market Return characteristics Equity-like returns with lower overall risk Bond proxies Investing in stable businesses How they do it and thoughtful portfolio Short selling, derivatives construction 14
Performance Indexed to 100 Low Volatility Global Equity Strategy Outperforming During Market Volatility Low Volatility Global Equity Strategy vs. MSCI World Index (CAD) (January 1, 2013 December 31, 2017) 240 220 200 Drawdown 2014 Aug 25 Oct 16 2015 Aug 5 Sep 28 2016 Dec 29 Feb 11 2017 Jun 23 Sept 7 Low Vol Global Strategy C$ -1.5% -6.0% -3.6% -6.2% MSCI World Index C$ -6.2% -10.0% -12.2% -6.2% 180 160 140 120 100 80 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Low Vol Global Equity Strategy MSCI World Index (CAD) Source: RBC GAM, Bloomberg Gross of fees 15
What is Direct Lending? Alternative Lending Source for Medium Sized Companies Opportunities outside the banking sector Short-term floating rate loans (4-7 year terms, 2-3yrs average life) Senior loans: top of the capital structure get paid first; Subordinate Loans strong protection Targeting event driven situations growth, restructure or acquisition capital Attractive for investors Attractive pricing structure cash yield, structuring and prepayment fees Lender-friendly terms covenant heavy (negotiated directly by us) Capture illiquidity premium Attractive for borrowers Flexibility and customization Certainty of capital Long-term partnership 16
Gross Annual Return Objective Direct Lending Capturing Illiquidity Premium Through Private Loans Investment Strategy Incremental +200-275bps Spread (illiquidity) +100 300bps Target superior returns to equivalent public debt, through liquidity and credit premiums Senior secured loans and subordinated debt (short term, floating rate) Capital protection, contractual returns, current income Direct Lending Structural Considerations Capital call and distribution framework Capital commitment and lock-up period Investment period Credit Risk Source: BlueBay internal estimates. For illustrative purposes only. 17
Appendix
Assumptions and Disclosures Capital Market Assumptions Asset Classes Representative Data Series Expected 10-yr Annualized Return Expected Annual Volatility Expected Annual Downside Risk Universe Bonds FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index 2.60% 4.2% -7.4% Direct Lending 1 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index (USD) 8.00% 3.0% -17.8% Canadian Equities S&P/TSX Composite Index 7.00% 16.5% -29.9% Canadian Low Volatility Equities RBC QUBE Low Volatility Canadian Equity Fund 6.30% 11.1% -17.6% Global Equities MSCI World Index (CAD) 6.81% 14.2% -26.2% Global Low Volatility Equities RBC QUBE Low Volatility Global Equity Fund (CAD) 6.12% 11.3% -16.0% Assumptions represent the views of PH&N for the purposes of illustrating and understanding the potential risk-reward trade-off of different portfolio decisions. Investors should be aware of the limitations using forward-looking assumptions in that there is absolutely no guarantee that future performance will occur according to any ex-ante expectation. 1 Expected 10-yr annualized return net of fees. 19
Universe Bonds Direct Lending Canadian Equities Canadian Low Volatility Equities Global Equities Global Low Volatility Equities Assumptions and Disclosures Capital Market Assumptions Correlation Universe Bonds 1 Direct Lending -0.1 1 Canadian Equities 0.0 0.4 1 Canadian Low Volatility Equities 0.1 0.3 0.7 1 Global Equities 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 1 Global Low Volatility Equities 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1 Assumptions represent the views of PH&N for the purposes of illustrating and understanding the potential risk-reward trade-off of different portfolio decisions. Investors should be aware of the limitations using forward-looking assumptions in that there is absolutely no guarantee that future performance will occur according to any ex-ante expectation. 20
Disclaimer This presentation is intended for institutional investors only. This document has been provided by Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management (PH&N IM) for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of PH&N IM. It is not intended to provide professional advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. PH&N IM takes reasonable steps to provide up-to-date, accurate and reliable information, and believes the information to be so when printed. PH&N IM reserves the right at any time and without notice to change, amend or cease publication of the information. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by PH&N IM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. We assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. This information is not intended to be an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to participate in or subscribe for any service. No securities are being offered, except pursuant and subject to the respective offering documents and subscription materials, which shall be provided to qualified investors. This document is for general information only and is not, nor does it purport to be, a complete description of an investment in any RBC, PH&N or BlueBay funds. If there is an inconsistency between this document and the respective offering documents, the provisions of the respective offering documents shall prevail. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with the funds mentioned in this presentation. Please read the offering materials for a particular fund before investing. The performance data provided are historical returns, they are not intended to reflect future values of any of the funds or returns on investment in these funds mentioned in this presentation. Further, the performance data provided assumes reinvestment of distributions only and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. The unit values of non-money market funds change frequently. For money market funds, there can be no assurances that the fund will be able to maintain its net asset value per unit at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment in the fund will be returned to you. Mutual fund securities are not guaranteed by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer. Past performance may not be repeated. The amount of risk associated with any particular investment depends largely on the investor s own circumstances. Investors should consult their professional advisors/consultants regarding the suitability of the investment solutions mentioned in this presentation. This document may contain forward-looking statements about general economic factors which are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties, so it is possible that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forwardlooking statement. All opinions in forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. PH&N IM is a division of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.). RBC GAM Inc. is the manager and principal portfolio adviser of the Phillips, Hager & North (PH&N) investment funds and RBC Funds. RBC Global Asset Management is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC GAM Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, the asset management division of RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited, and BlueBay Asset Management LLP, which are separate, but affiliated subsidiaries of RBC. / Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Global Asset Management Inc., 2018. 21
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Marg Romanow, Benefits Officer, Saskatchewan Union of Nurses, Healthcare Pension Board
ASSESS ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT OPTIONS Which Asset Classes meet your needs? Prioritize those that best meet your needs. How many new asset classes do you want to introduce? Consider governance implications. Determine your ESG priorities. Consider CAPSA Guidelines Accessing expertise to ensure knowledgeable decisions Clearly defined process/criteria
Does the Asset Class help meet your long term obligations? ASK QUESTIONS ON IDENTIFIED ASSET CLASS OPTIONS Ensure you understand the new investment How are returns generated? What are the risks? Does the level of risk meet your needs? Does it fit with your other existing investments? What is the availability of investment vehicles? What is the impact on Plan administration? Access experts/get education as needed to answer the above
NARROW DOWN THE OPTIONS Once you have decided on an asset class: How will you implement multiple managers? Build a program over time? How many will you hire? Does the asset class require a more nimble approach to manager selection? Will you interview or delegate the selection process? Which managers will you interview? Do you have enough information to make a decision?
ASK QUESTIONS ON MANAGER SELECTION PROCESS Objectives for fund/manager match our targets? What is the history of the fund? What are the risks related to this fund? Does the team depth/experience and process give it any advantage? Total Assets Under Management? Does the manager provide transparency? Are management fees consistent with the market and structure aligned with our interests? Political factors? Currency factors?
ADDITIONAL DUE DILIGENCE FOR ALTERNATIVES Ensure there is an appropriate due diligence process. Complexity can come from vehicles used (limited partnerships). Has the structure been reviewed for regulatory and tax issues? Have terms and conditions been reviewed? Is the reporting process to you acceptable? What is the expected investment horizon? Does it meet your needs? Are they flexible to meet your needs? Ie ESG considerations?
BE NOT AFRAID Utilize the typical process of hiring Managers. Adapt/enhance the hiring process as necessary for the specifics of the new fund. Do not dismiss the Asset Class without due consideration. Do not be influenced by generalized fears. Consider the options carefully. Ensure that you understand the new Asset Class. Ensure that you can factually justify your decisions. Ensure that you are meeting your Fiduciary Responsibility as a Pension Trustee.