Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and Allocations DECEMBER 2017
Presentation Overview Overview of the Allocation Process Population and Employment Projections Trend Analysis 2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis Next Steps 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Overview of the Allocation Process
Population and Employment Allocation Update the projections, horizon date and underlying assumptions Understand recent demographic trends and how they may impact Hillsborough County in the future Grounded in a real estate market analysis Look at scenarios of how policy and infrastructure changes impact where population and jobs go Input from all 4 local governments throughout 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Results Trend analysis of demographic shifts and market and real estate forecasts Assessment of scenarios for whether they achieve our goals: Quality of Life Fiscal Sustainability Economic prosperity Responsible Growth Consistency of Action Updated population and job projections to be utilized for future planning efforts 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Employment Allocation How much will we grow? Where will growth go? What is the trend? How will different infrastructure and policy decisions impact that trend? Where do we want growth to go? What facilities will be needed? Population & Employment Projections Trend and Market Analysis Alternative Allocation Scenarios Hybrid Scenario Comprehensive Plan MPO LRTP Master Plans CIP 2045 Population and Employment Projections
How much will we grow? Population and Employment Projections
Control Totals Projected population and employment for 2045 + interim years Allows us to compare different scenarios in a uniform way Can we accommodate that growth? Do we want to? How? Where? Conditions change = plans and projections change 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population 2045 Population Projections 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,475,000 Population 2,300,000 2,100,000 1,900,000 1,700,000 1,500,000 BEBR High W & P BEBR Medium BEBR Low 2,140,000 2,007,000 1,562,000 1,300,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Shorter Term Projections 2020 2025 2030 BEBR 1,466,900 1,602,900 1,722,900 W&P 1,466,512 1,593,378 1,727,334 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment 2045 Employment Projections 1,450,000 1,350,000 W&P 1,377,000 Employment 1,250,000 1,150,000 1,050,000 0.61 jobs per person 0.58 jobs per person 1,224,000 1,164,000 950,000 850,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Where will growth go? Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis Based on historical growth trend Follows Future Land Use Plan/Map Supported by building permit data Considers latest demographic data Real estate market analysis consultant review Draft data/maps attached 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Trend analysis and planning assumptions Land use Development Activity Policy Demographics 2045 Population and Employment Projections
2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis
What will Hillsborough County look like in 30 years? Where will we grow? How will we grow? What does this mean for Transportation? Housing? Infrastructure? Schools? 2045 Population and Employment Projections
2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis What do you want to get out of it? Test and update assumptions from Imagine 2040 Test impact of different infrastructure decisions 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Next Steps
Timeline Trend and Market Analysis early 2018 Alternative Scenarios Spring 2018 Outreach Summer 2018 Hybrid Scenario Fall 2018 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Attachments Draft Trend Analysis Maps
Land Use Trends Developed land: 1960 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: 1970 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: 1980 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: 1990 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: 2000 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: 2010 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developed land: Present Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential: Key Findings Steady, continuous growth Trend toward smaller lot sizes Unit type balance remains constant Seasonal housing is concentrated in the south 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth Trends Dwelling Units 560,000 14% 550,000 540,000 530,000 12% 10% 12% Increase from 2005 2015 Dwelling Units 520,000 510,000 500,000 490,000 480,000 470,000 460,000 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.14% Annual Average Growth DU Growth Since 2005 2045 Population and Employment Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates
Residential Growth Trends Housing Type Multi Family 29% Mobile Home or Other 8% Single Family Attached 7% Single Family 56% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2045 Population and Employment Projections
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth Trends Housing Type 56.3% 56.2% 29.1% 29.4% 9.0% 7.7% 5.6% 6.7% Single Family Multi Family Mobile Home or Other Single Family Attached Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2005 2015 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth Trends Single Family Residential Lot Size Countywide 0.66 Acres 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.56 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Present 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment and Activities: Key Findings Bulk of employment is in professional, office, services, retail Strong growth in employment since 2010 Strong growth in floor space since 2000, leveling off in 2010 Employee space utilization is becoming more efficient FAR has leveled off 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment Growth Trends Total Employment 700,000 Total Employment 600,000 585,800 500,000 472,100 400,000 300,000 24% increase 2010 2015 Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database. 2045 Population and Employment Projections 200,000 100,000 0 Office + Commercial 149,600 115,100 30% increase Industrial 84,20086,100 2% increase Institutional
Employment Growth Trends Floor Area (millions of square feet) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Office 50.8 6.9 19.6 39.0 Commercial 11.6 3.2 4.3 11.7 Industrial 77.1 21.6 2.1 Institutional 65.4 29.8 17.6 Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment Growth Trends Floor Area (millions of square feet) 120.0 100.0 Floor Area (millions of square feet) 103.8 104.2 100.5 101.6 80.0 80.2 83.6 86.0 80.8 60.0 58.5 60.5 65.4 21% increase 29% increase 2000 48.4 2010 40.0 28% increase 2017 20.0 25% increase Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database. 2045 Population and Employment Projections 0.0 Office Commercial Industrial Institutional
Land Use Trends Trend Development Focus Areas Preservation Primarily Employment Primarily Residential Northwest Hillsborough County North Airport West Riverfront Westshore Hyde Park USF/ Innovation Place/ University Mall Temple Terrace East Tampa Heights/Ybor City Downtown US 41 Port Activity Corridor Port US 301 Corridor I 4 USA Expansion Northeast Master Plan Plant City West Employment and Residential New Growth Infill and Redevelopment South County RP 2 Area East Rural Area 2045 Population and Employment Projections Little Manatee South
Land Use Trends Residential Building Permits by Unit Downtown Channel District West Riverfront Westshore South Brandon Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Non Residential Building Permits by Unit Downtown Westshore Airport area Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Developable Land Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends Redevelopment Potential Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Carrying capacity Hillsborough County will add roughly 630,000 people and 340,000 jobs by 2045 1. There are approximately 75,000 acres of unconstrained vacant and redevelopable land within the USA and Plant City. Assume 52,500 acres (70%) are residential and 22,500 acres (30%) are non residential. 1 Based on BEBR medium projection and current population to employment ratio. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
How much population can 52,500 acres accommodate? 900,000 800,000 700,000 Projected population growth by 2045 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Assumes 2.3 persons per household. 3 units per acre 5 units per acre 7 units per acre 2045 Population and Employment Projections
How much employment can 22,500 acres accommodate? 600,000 588,100 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Projected employment growth by 2045 294,000 441,000 0 0.1 FAR 0.15 FAR 0.2 FAR Assumes 3 employees per 1,000 square feet. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use: For Consideration We will likely consume all developable land before 2045. How will the market respond? Redevelopment, infill and intensification. Growth pressure on USA expansion. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Demographic Trends: Key Findings Hillsborough population share is stable Pasco s share is growing, Pinellas declining The county is trending older Much larger share of millennials in multi family housing Average household size on a slight decline Significant patterns in student enrollment (suburban), zero car households (urban) 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Demographic Trends Population Growth Tri County Population Growth Percent of Tri County Population 3,000,000 60% 2,500,000 50% 2,000,000 40% 1,500,000 30% 1,000,000 20% 500,000 10% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0% 1960 1980 2000 2010 2015 Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco 2045 Population and Employment Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates
Population and Demographic Trends Age Cohorts 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under 18 18 34 35 49 50 64 65 and Over 2045 Population and Employment Projections 1985 2015 2045 Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010. and BEBR
Population and Demographic Trends Age Cohorts by Housing Type 38% 19% 21% 21% 20% 12% 15% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 7% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 64 65 and Up Single Family Multi Family 2045 Population and Employment Projections Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010.
Population and Demographic Trends Auto Ownership Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Demographic Trends Auto Ownership 68% 65% 65% 28% 29% 29% 5% 5% 4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2045 Population and Employment Projections 2005 2010 2015 2+ Cars One Car Zero Car
Demographics: For Consideration Shrinking household size and implications for housing choice. As millennials age, will they continue to opt for multi family housing? Will older age cohorts continue to opt for single family housing? Will auto ownership remain stable? Potential for non SOV travel as county becomes more intense and mixed. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use Character Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use Density New Tampa I 275 Corridor USF Downtown Tampa South Tampa West Brandon South Plant City Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use Intensity Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Plans and Policies: For Consideration Will market realize higher densities and intensities? Is it enough to accommodate growth? Are we on the right track for: Coordinated transportation and land use? Efficient provision of public services? Preservation of natural and aesthetic assets? 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Where will growth go? Suitability Analysis
Suitability Analysis Rates land for development. Based on factors that you decide. Weighting give some factors importance over others. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability Factors H = High influence M = Medium influence L = Low influence 2045 Population and Employment Projections Criteria Residential Commercial Industrial Expressway access M H L Urban services H H H Utilities* H H H Transit H H Airport access L L Intermodal access H Rail access M Walkability* H H Arterial frontage M Population proximity* H M Jobs proximity M H USF proximity L H Waterfront access M M Growth hotspot (residential) H Growth hotspot (non residential) M H Coastal Hazard Zone M L L Floodplain M L L School proximity H Park and greenway proximity* H *Pending updates
Suitability Score Residential The higher the score, the more suitable for development Most suitable for residential growth. DRAFT Least suitable for residential growth. 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability Score Commercial The higher the score, the more suitable for development DRAFT 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability Score Industrial The higher the score, the more suitable for development DRAFT 2045 Population and Employment Projections
Next Steps
Timeline Trend and Market Analysis early 2018 Alternative Scenarios Spring 2018 Outreach Summer 2018 Hybrid Scenario Fall 2018 2045 Population and Employment Projections