Sensex (35544) / Nifty (10802) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Yesterday, our markets were not at all bothered what s happening across the globe as traders were mainly focusing on key political event, Karnataka assembly election. We had a flat start and within few minutes, the index took a leap as BJP started leading in early counts. In fact, as the lead started increasing, the Nifty went on to surpass the 10900 mark within no time. Everything looked hunky dory at one point; but as market always surprises, we witnessed a complete nosedive after hitting a high of 10929.20. The index remained under severe pressure throughout the remaining part to eventually conclude the session at 10800. Yesterday s price movement was a perfect example of a famous saying in the market Sell on News. Traders looked extremely confident above 10900; but that s when market showed its supremacy. So many traders now must have caught on the wrong foot and the way it has closed, the picture does look very much scary now. Due to an intraday volatility, the daily chart now depicts a Gravestone Doji, which is considered as a probable trend reversal pattern. More importantly, it has occurred exactly at the 78.6% retracement of the recent down move. Yes, the pattern needs a confirmation below its low; but considering the overall set up, we will not be surprised it to happen soon. Hence, with reference to recent articles, we were advocating booking profit around 10900 and now going ahead, a move below 10780 would provide credence to this stance. In this scenario, the index may immediately correct towards 10724-10700 levels; whereas, on the higher side, 10840 followed by 10880 would act as strong hurdles. Any attempt to bounce back towards these levels can be used as an exit opportunity. Key Levels Support 1 10724 Resistance 1 10840 Support 2 10700 Resistance 2 10880 Nifty Bank Outlook - (26474) Post a flat opening, the Nifty Bank index continued it s up move and rallied sharply up to 26972 in the first hour of the trade. However, the index corrected sharply post noon and it wiped out all the intraday gains to end the day on a flat note. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Owing to the Karnataka elections results, it was much expected that there would be high volatility during the day. The corrective move in the later half has led to formation of the 'Gravestone Doji' candlestick pattern on the daily chart. It is a popular reversal pattern and formation of the same after an up move in the recent past in Nifty Bank index indicates high probability of a correction going ahead. A breach below yesterday's low of 26407.30 will provide a confirmation and hence, traders should be cautious on the index in near term. Key Levels Support 1 26240 Resistance 1 26675 Support 2 26127 Resistance 2 26780
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.67% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 2.29% as market closed at 10801.85 levels. The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 16.75 points against a premium of 8.10 points in last trading session. The June series closed at a premium of 22.40 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 14.24 to 13.16. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.64 to 1.60 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are RCOM, DISHTV, JUSTDIAL, SRF and CHENNPETRO. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 518 crores. While, they bought worth Rs. 660 crores in index futures with decent rise in open interest, suggesting fresh long formation in yesterday's trading session. In index options front, they were net buyers of Rs. 2867 crores with rise in. In call options, we saw fresh builtup in 11000 and 11200 strikes; followed by unwinding in 10700 and 11050 call options. On the flip side, 10800-10900 put strikes added fresh positions along with unwinding in 10200-10700 strikes. Maximum open interest concentration remains intact in 11000 call and 10500 put options. The benchmark index rallied above 10900 mark but failed to hold on the momentum to conclude the session with marginal loss. As anticipated, we hardly saw index giving any massive move on closing basis which in turn resulted profits to those traders who preferred short straddle strategy. At present, looking at the unwinding in put options we expect some profit booking in coming sessions; thus, traders are advised to exit from their existing index longs. Gainers PCJEWELLER 10006500 12.82 169.80-4.71 ACC 2473600 12.70 1403.60-2.62 ALBK 17532000 12.31 40.40-8.70 PIDILITIND 1666000 11.29 1095.20-0.59 BHARATFIN 5683500 8.57 1170.45 0.14 NCC 38336000 8.49 109.50-8.25 MANAPPURAM 18570000 8.41 114.85-4.09 CIPLA 11082000 8.12 573.80-0.73 Losers PAGEIND 47850-10.23 23309.40-3.29 UJJIVAN 6542400-8.87 396.45-1.22 SIEMENS 1510500-8.48 1055.10 3.11 NIITTECH 2498250-6.85 1060.70-1.12 SHREECEM 73550-6.60 16439.65 1.32 COLPAL 1489600-6.34 1146.30 3.13 KAJARIACER 1756800-6.23 543.95-0.05 ICICIPRULI 6067100-5.98 445.60 0.30 Historical Volatility HV COLPAL 23.32 ALBK 60.65 NCC 60.08 TATAMTRDVR 41.80 TATACHEM 29.45 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.60 1.08 BANKNIFTY 1.03 1.09 TATAMOTORS 0.44 0.56 ICICIBANK 1.38 1.16 RELIANCE 0.46 0.53
FII Statistics for May 15, 2018 Turnover on May 15, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 2974.49 2314.33 660.16 222170 18996.75 5.85 159154.82 156287.75 2867.07 892107 74928.40 4.15 11399.60 11544.91 (145.32) 1223136 84802.44 1.05 8264.53 8130.15 134.38 128527 8935.04 2.39 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 324209 29693.95 131.45 10233490 996801.91 220.54 892801 57779.73 33.02 694714 47213.09 27.08 Total 181793.43 178277.13 3516.30 2465940 187662.63 2.65 TOTAL 12145214 1131488.68 179.80 Nifty Spot = 10801.85 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10800 111.75 Sell 10900 62.45 49.30 50.70 10849.30 Buy 10800 94.55 Sell 10700 62.90 31.65 68.35 10768.35 Buy 10800 111.75 Sell 11000 29.50 82.25 117.75 10882.25 Buy 10800 94.55 Sell 10600 41.80 52.75 147.25 10747.25 Buy 10900 62.45 Sell 11000 29.50 32.95 67.05 10932.95 Buy 10700 62.90 Sell 10600 41.80 21.10 78.90 10678.90 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 392 400 406 415 421 ASIANPAINT 1,274 1,294 1,309 1,329 1,344 AXISBANK 537 544 554 560 570 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,767 2,795 2,836 2,865 2,905 BAJFINANCE 1,818 1,860 1,897 1,939 1,976 BAJAJFINSV 5,265 5,331 5,385 5,451 5,505 BPCL 393 399 406 413 420 BHARTIARTL 373 377 383 387 393 INFRATEL 309 310 313 315 318 CIPLA 561 568 581 588 601 COALINDIA 257 260 266 269 275 DRREDDY 1,954 1,981 2,006 2,033 2,057 EICHERMOT 29,844 30,309 30,654 31,119 31,464 GAIL 328 334 342 348 357 GRASIM 1,072 1,081 1,092 1,101 1,113 HCLTECH 902 913 923 935 944 HDFCBANK 2,005 2,021 2,043 2,060 2,081 HDFC 1,914 1,922 1,932 1,940 1,950 HEROMOTOCO 3,618 3,634 3,647 3,662 3,675 HINDALCO 235 240 244 248 253 HINDPETRO 307 315 323 331 338 HINDUNILVR 1,491 1,503 1,523 1,535 1,555 IBULHSGFIN 1,167 1,184 1,206 1,223 1,246 ICICIBANK 298 303 310 315 323 IOC 163 165 168 170 172 INDUSINDBK 1,878 1,898 1,925 1,944 1,971 INFY 1,177 1,186 1,197 1,206 1,217 ITC 278 280 283 285 288 KOTAKBANK 1,237 1,261 1,283 1,306 1,328 LT 1,348 1,361 1,382 1,395 1,416 LUPIN 700 725 749 775 799 M&M 822 834 850 862 878 MARUTI 8,594 8,660 8,705 8,772 8,817 NTPC 166 168 171 173 176 ONGC 181 185 188 193 196 POWERGRID 205 210 213 217 220 RELIANCE 962 970 985 994 1,009 SBIN 239 243 250 255 262 SUNPHARMA 448 458 469 479 490 TCS 3,409 3,445 3,471 3,508 3,533 TATAMOTORS 295 303 313 321 332 TATASTEEL 591 609 623 640 654 TECHM 655 663 671 679 688 TITAN 893 912 928 947 963 ULTRACEMCO 4,046 4,078 4,109 4,140 4,171 UPL 711 722 731 742 751 VEDANTA 274 278 282 285 289 WIPRO 265 268 271 274 277 YESBANK 337 341 348 352 359 ZEEL 558 565 574 581 590
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