Meta analysis economy BAKBASEL expects for 2017 an increase of 1, of the Swiss Gross Domestic Product. For the year 2018, the growth rate should add up to 1,8%. For the experts of this institute, the expectations of a strong recovery of the Swiss economy remains valid. In February 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 5,2 points to a new reading of 107,2. This pronounced upturn to a level clearly above its longterm average indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should grow at above average rates. The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1,38 to 1,43 points in January and continues to signal solid growth in private consumption. Swiss consumers view the economic and financial situation with considerably more optimism than in the last quarter. In February 2017, the procure.ch Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose at 57,8 points (+3,2 points). The PMI was at ist highest level since april 2011 and considerably above the growth threshold (50 points). SNB: The inflation forecast for 2017 has risen to 0,, compared to 0, in the previous quarter. For 2018, the SNB anticipates inflation of 0,, compared to 0, in the previous quarter. The forecast for 2019 is 1,. GDP and private consumption (1) Unemployment rate and inflation (2) private consumption (change p.a.) GDP (real, change p.a.) consumer prices (change p.a.) unemployment rate unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted Source: S. Source: S, FSO. Economic forecasts Swiss economy (3) S 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 GDP, real Private consumption Public consumption Equipment investments Investments in construction Exports Imports Unemployment rate Consumer prices 3.5 0.0 3.7 3.8 3.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.3 0.3 0.3 3.4 0.3 3.4 2.8 5.9 2.4 4.7 3.5 6.1 0.8 4.5 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.4 3.1 0.9 2.7 2.7 3.3 0.3 3.8 3.5 4.6 2.8 3.4 3.3 0.4 3.1 3.4 4.1 3.1 Changes to previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forcast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses: S: 15.12.2016 (19.10.2016), KOF: 15.12.2016 (6.10.2016), Créa: 24.10.2016 (25.5.2016), CS: 14.12.2016 (14.9.2016), UBS: 26.017 (20.10.2016), BAK: 9.017 (9.12.2016). Arrows: (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), (previous forecast kept). The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow. The arrows with the arithmetic means (columns on the right) show the changes of the means to the previous meta analysis economy. For all sources, please consult the last two pages «Sources and Glossary» and «Impressum». KOF Créa CS UBS BAK Arithmetic means Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain 10 03 Zürich 3005 Bern +41 44 466 00 +41 31 348 00 info@fpre.ch bern@fpre.ch www.fpre.ch www.fpre.ch «ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz» On 22 december 2016, the guide for Swiss residential and commercial properties markets for the year 2017 was published (in German). Order: almanach@fpre.ch Costs: CHF / copy Information: https://www.fpre.ch/en/products/immobilienalmanach/
Overview economic indicators GDP forecast Swiss economy GDP, real 2017 2018 UBS Créa CS KOF BAK S Ø UBS BAK S KOF Créa CS Ø 2.4 Evolution of GDP (real) and unemployment rate (4) GDP real unemployment rate growth potential The potential growth lies between 1, and 1,8%, according to calculations by Fahrländer Partner. Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling 20122014 (revised from January 2014). Source: figure 1, page 1, Fahrländer Partner (growth potential). KOF economic barometer (5) The KOF Economic Barometer is a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy. It comprises 219 variables which are combined based on statistically determined weights. It is one to two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters. In February 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 5,2 points to a new reading of 107,2. This pronounced upturn to a level clearly above its longterm average indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should grow at rates above average. GDP (real, change p. a., r. s) KOF Economic Barometer Source: KOF, S. Private consumption, consumer sentiment and UBS consumption indicator (6) 4 50 The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1,38 to 1,43 points in January and continues to signal solid growth in private consumption. Swiss 3 30 consumers view the economic and financial situation with considerably more optimism than in the last quarter. 2 10 1 10 0 30 1 private consumption (in %) UBS consumption indicator Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible (right scale) 50 Source: WMR UBS, S.
Forecast adjustment Evolution forecasts GDP 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. (7) Evolution forecasts private consumption (8) 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Evolution forecasts investments in construction 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 (9) Evolution forecasts exports of goods (10) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Source: cf. figure, page 1. Evolution forecasts unemployment rate (11) Evolution forecasts rate of price increase (12) 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.8 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Maximum Average The horizontal axe shows the different forecast moments. The red bars show the band width of the forecasts for the year 2017, the blue bars for the year 2018. The average is illustrated in black. Minimum
Detail indicators consumption 2017 2018 KOF UBS CS S Créa BAK Ø KOF UBS S Créa BAK CS Ø Private consumption 0.9 0.9 KOF BAK UBS CS S Créa Ø KOF UBS BAK S CS Créa Ø Public consumption 0.8 0.3 Changes in consumption (13) Private consumption Public consumption Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Source: table 3, page 1. UBS consumption indicator (14) 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 January 2017 UBS consumption indicator 3rd quarter 2016 Private consumption (in %) The UBS consumption indicator shows ca. three months in advance to the official numbers the evolution of the private consumption in Switzerland. Level of the index 3 Change p.a. 0. private consumption (in %) UBS consumption indicator Source: WMR UBS, S. Consumer sentiment index (15) 40 20 0 20 40 January 2017 Consumer sentiment Employment stability Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible Expected economic development Note: Since the second quarter 2007, the new EUcompatible index is displayed. Level of the index 6 66 3 14 Employment stability Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible Expected economic development Note: The dashed line shows the correspondig mean. Source: S. Changes turnover in retail business and new registrations of cars (16) 2 1 1 4th quarter 2016 New registrations of cars 4th quarter 2016 Turnover in retail business Change p.a. 1. Change p.a. 0. 1 1 2 New registrations of cars Turnover in retail business Source: FSO.
Detail indicators investments Equipment investments 2017 2018 KOF UBS BAK S CS Créa Ø KOF S UBS BAK Créa CS Ø 0.5 0.7 3.4 3.8 4.7 3.1 KOF UBS BAK S CS Créa Ø UBS BAK S KOF Créa CS Ø Investments in construction 0.9 0.9 2.8 Changes in investments (17) 1 8% 8% 1 1 investments in construction equipment investments Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Source: figure 3, page 1. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (18) 75 65 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Production Business backlog PMI February 2017 PMI Production Business backlog The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is based on a monthly survey of Credit Suisse and procure.ch. The PMI shows an immediate picture of business development in industry. Note: If the PMI or one of the subindices reads over (under) the 50.0 pointmark, this indicates an increase (decrease). Source: Credit Suisse, procure.ch. Level of the index 57.8 59.9 58.1 Changes in credit volume, inland (19) 3 2 1 December 2016 Volume in billion CHF Change p.a. Mortgage claims 948.0 Claims on clients 1.8 2.7% 3.9% 1 2 Mortgage claims Claims on clients Source: SNB. Changes order inflow and balance of capital goods (20) 30. 20. 10. 0. 10. 20. 30. 4th quarter 2016 Total order inflow Investment order inflow Total business backlog Investment business backlog Change p.a. 3. 8. 4. 3. Investment business backlog Total business backlog Investment order inflow Total order inflow Source: FSO.
Detail indicators foreign trade Exports of goods 2017 2018 Créa KOF UBS BAK S CS Ø KOF UBS Créa BAK S CS Ø 2.2 2.4 2.7 4.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.4 UBS KOF BAK S CS Créa Ø KOF UBS S BAK Créa CS Ø Imports of goods 2.4 2.7 3.5 3.5 5.9 3.4 3.8 4.6 6.1 4.1 Changes in foreign trade: exports and imports (21) 18% 1 1 9% 9% 1 Exports Imports Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Source: figure 3, page 1. Changes in exports to Germany, France, Italy, USA: contribution to growth in export volume (22) 2 1 1 4th quarter 2016 Total exports Germany France Italy USA Change p.a. 0. 3. 5. 3. 3. 1 1 2 Germany France Italy USA Total exports Source: Swiss Customs Administration. Real exchange rate indices, exportweighted (23) 1 Euro Zone UK USA Japan Total 15.0017 EUR GBP USD JPY () The real external value of the Swiss Franc compared to the currencies of the most important trade partners of Switzerland is measured by the real exportweighted exchange rate index. It is often used as an indicator for the assessment of the price competitiveness of an economy. A fall in the exchange rate index means a depreciation of the Swiss Franc. Source: SNB. Exchange rate 7 3 1 0.88 EUR/CHF and PurchasingPower Parity (PPP) (24) 0.9 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 30.2016 PPP The concept of purchaisingpower parity (PPP) can be used to determinate the fair value of a currency. Purchaisingpower parity exists when different currencies have the same purchaisingpower due to the exchange rate and therefor the same basket of goods can be purchased with one unit of currency. If the EURCHF PPP is higher than the EURCHF exchange rate, the CHF is overvalued. 4 EURCHF EURCHF PPP Source: UBS CIO, Macrobond.
OW AI NW UR GR AR SZ LU GL SG TG ZG FR BE BL SO AG CH SH ZH TI BS VS VD JU GE NE Detail indicators job market 2017 2018 KOF CS BAK S Créa UBS Ø CS KOF BAK S Créa UBS Ø Unemployment rate 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.1 Unemployment rate (25) Growth of employment Unemployment rate Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Note: Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling 20122014 (revised from January 2014). Source: figure 3, page 1. Changes in unemployment rate (26) 10 8 6 4 2 2 4 unemployment rate unemployment rate 2024 unemployment rate + Registered unemployed February 2017 Number Δ* Rate TOTAL 159'9 3. Secondary sector 45'269 % 5. Engineering 2'236 8. 3. Chemistry, petroleum refining 1'559 3. Third sector 105'8 0.8% 3. Banking and insurance sector 7'397 8. * Changes to same month previous year Note: Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling 20122014 (revised from January 2014). Source: S. Change job vacancies (27) 12 10 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 TOTAL Third sector Banking and insurance sector Second sector Mechanical engineering Index of job vacancies TOTAL Second sector Mechanical engineering Third sector Banking and insurance sector Source: FSO. Change p.a. 4th quarter 2016 8% 1 29% 7% 8% Cantonal unemployment rates (28.a) Shorttime work (28.b) 7% 6'000 5'000 4'000 3'000 2'000 1'000 0 February 2017 Source: S. Canceled working hours (in 1'000)
Detail indicators price increase and interests 2017 2018 S KOF BAK UBS CS Créa Ø S KOF BAK Créa UBS CS Ø Rate of price increase 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 Rate of price increase (29) 3. 3. 2. 2. % 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. % Inflation forecast SNB Forecast March 2017 Libor 0.7 Forecast December 2016 Libor 0.7 2017 0. 0. The inflation forecast for 2017 has risen to 0., compared to 0. in the previous quarter. For 2018, the SNB anticipates inflation of 0., compared to 0. in the previous quarter. The forecast for 2019 is 1.. 2018 0. 0. 2019 1. inflation Target range price stability (SNB) 3 month libor Note: The values for 2017 and 2018 are forecasts. Source: figure 3, page 1, SNB. Changes in producer and import prices (30) 8% 1 1 February 2017 change to previous month change p.a. Consumer prices Producer prices Import prices 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. Consumer prices Producer prices Import prices Source: FSO. Interests and monetary aggregates (31) 0 0 0 February 2017 3 month Libor Confederation bonds (10 years) 0.7% 0. 400 December 2016 200 Saving growth 0. 0 200 400 3 month Libor Confederation bonds (10 years) Saving growth Monet. aggreg. M2 (in bn. CHF, r.s.) Source: FSO. Yields on Confederation bonds (32) 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. normal band 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 duration in years Expected interest rate Seco KOF Créa Interest rate 3monthLibor Yields on Confederat. bonds (10 years) 2017 2018 2017 2018 0.7% 0. 0. 0. 0.7% 0.7% 0. 0. 0. 0. Normal band: longterm expectations of growth (ca. % ) plus longterm expectations of price increase (ca. % ). 06.02.2017 four weeks ago one year ago Source: SNB, Fahrländer Partner (normal band).
International indicators Economic forecasts global economy (33) GDP, real Rate of price increase Unemployment rate EU COM OECD DIW EU COM EU COM 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 CH GER GB JAP USA EU27 Eurozone OECD 0.5 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.3 2.4 0.3 0.5 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.2 0.4 2.1 4.1 5.2 3.1 4.6 8.1 9.6 4.1 5.6 4.5 7.8 9.1 4.6 4.2 5.0 4.7 9.5 6.1 4.5 4.1 5.6 2.9 4.5 9.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.6 9.4 5.3 5.5 0.0 9.1 Changes to the previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forecast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses: European Commission (EU KOM): 017 (24.10.2016), OECD: 016 (.2016), DIW: 15.017 (14.12.2016). Arrows: (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), (previous forecast kept). The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow. OECD DIW OECD DIW International GDP (34) International unemployment rates (35) 1 1 8% 8% USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland International expectations inflation (36) USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland Note: The values for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are forecasts. Source: OECD.
Special topic: Commodities (1) Primary commodity price indices 2 240 220 200 1 1 40 (37) All Commodity NonFuel Industrial Inputs 2 240 220 200 1 1 40 Metals Crude oil Agricultural raw materials Note: based on prices in USD, monthly data, average of 2005=. Source: IMF. Exchange rate index USD (38) 50 Exchange rate index USD (tradeweighted) Exchange rate index USD Note: monthly data, January 2005=. An increase in the exchange rate index means a appreciation of the dollar. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Producer prices (39) 50 Note: based on national PPI, monthly data, January 2005=. Source: OECD. Switzerland Germany Eurozone USA
Special topic: Commodities (2) Swiss imports (40) 1 1 1 1 1 1 Raw materials and semifinished products (value) Raw materials and semifinished products (quantity) Crude oil and derivatives (value) Crude oil and derivatives (quantity) 1 1 1 1 1 1 Metals (value) Metals (quantity) Agricultural raw materials (value) Agricultural raw materials (quantity) Note: based on nominal values in CHF and quantities in kg, quarterly data, 1st quarter 2005=. Source: FCA. Swiss imports according to broad economic categories (41) 6 bn CHF 35.1 bn CHF 2 39.2 bn CHF 2 78.5 bn CHF 49% Consumer goods Raw materials and semifinished products Capital goods Energy sources Note: based on nominal values in CHF, JanuaryNovember 2016. Source: FCA.
Sources und Glossary Nb. of fig. Note Indicator Source Data as of 1 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 4th quarter 2016 2 Level as a % Unemployment rate S February 2017 Changes compared to previous year. Consumer prices FSO February 2017 3 Changes compared to previous year. Forecasts S KOF Créa Credit Suisse UBS BAKBASEL 15.12.2016 15.12.2016 24.10.2016 14.12.2016 26.0017 09.0017 4 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 5 KOF Economic Barometer KOF February 2017 GDP S 4th quarter 2016 6 Private consumption S 4th quarter 2016 UBS consumption indicator UBS January 2017 Consumer confidence S 1st quarter 2017 712 S KOF Créa Credit Suisse UBS BAKBASEL 09.0017 13 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 14 UBS consumption indicator UBS January 2017 Private consumption S 4th quarter 2016 15 Consumer confidence S 1st quarter 2017 16 Quarterly date, changes as a % compared to previous year. New registrations of cars ASTRA 4th quarter 2016 Sales in retail business, adjusted, real. Retail trade turnover FSO 4th quarter 2016 17 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 18 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) procure.ch, CS February 2017 19 Outstanding credit (gross receivable), SNB Dec 2016 Change as a % compared to previous year (nominal values). 20 Real change as a % compared to previous year FSO 4th quarter 2016 (at prices of previous year), except construction business. 21 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 22 Shares of exports to Germany, France, Italy and the USA FCA 4th quarter 2016 to the relative growth of export volume in percentage points. Administration Relative changes in growth of total exports as a % compared to the previous year (nominal values). 23 SNB January 2017 24 UBS, Macrobond 30.2016 25 Unemployment rate as a percentage. Employment growth Unemployment rate S February 2017 (fulltime equivalent) in the second and third sector as Employment growth S 2016 percentaged change compared to the previous year. Forecasts figure 3 26 Changes compared to previous year. S February 2017 27 Changes compared to previous year. FSO JOBSTAT 4th quarter 2016 28.a Unemployment rate S February 2017 28.b Shorttime Work S December 2016 29 Consumer price index (changes as a % compared to previous year). Inflation FSO February 2017 3monthLibor as a % 3monthLibor SNB February 2017 Forecasts figure 3 30 Changes compared to previous year. FSO February 2017 31 Interests SNB February 2017 Monetary base SNB January 2017 Saving growth SNB December 2016 32 SNB February 2017 Normal band Fahrländer Partner 2012 33 Changes compared to previous year. Forecasts EU Commission OECD 12.2017 0016 DIW 34 Real change as a % compared to previous year OECD (at previous year prices). 3536 OECD 37 Primary commodity price indices IMF 15.12.2016 15.12.2016 24.10.2016 14.12.2016 26.0017 15.0017 0016 0016 1017 38 Exchange rate index USD St. Louis FED 1017 39 Producer prices OECD 1017 4041 FCA 20.12.2016
Impressum Disclaimer Impressum Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung elaborates the meta analysis economy with highest care. Despite this, it is not possible to guarantee the accuracy, correctness, timeliness and completeness of all the information. Also check original sources. The meta analysis economy is compiled based on the newest available data. Authors: Mattia FareiCampagna, Dominik Matter and Jaron Schlesinger. The overview of the monitor regulation can be accessed or subscribed: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/ Sponsoring Contact The meta analysis economy is a free service offered by Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung. We offer you the possibility to appear as a sponser in this publication. Please contact us. Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain 10 03 Zürich 3005 Bern +41 44 466 00 +41 31 348 00 meta@fpre.ch meta@fpre.ch www.fpre.ch www.fpre.ch