Five - Year Financial Forecast Presentation to Board of Education Schoharie CSD
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 This forecast is based upon our purpose to continue to improve student educational achievement as well as to meet the prescribed learning standards and graduation requirements. The financial implications are in alignment with the District's educational philosophy: To Ensure that the District has the Fiscal Capacity to Provide the Resources for Increased Educational Opportunities for EVERY Schoharie Central School District Student. 2
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Assumptions for Budget Appropriations: Funding is estimated for future settlements of employee collective bargaining contracts. Equipment line item has dollars for computer technology replacements. Health Insurance and Prescription costs are still expected to continue to increase at 2% to 5% each year. Debt Service expenses reflect a schedule of outstanding capital project bonds. Repayment of bonds results in corresponding State Building Aid, which is currently 83.8%. We receive the aid in the same year as the debt service expenditure. 3
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Assumptions for Budget Appropriations(continued): TRS employer contribution rates are 16.25% for 2013-14 but will rise to as much as 17.75% for 2014-15 of teacher salaries. ERS rate is an average of 20.1% for 2013-14 and will probably rise in ensuing years. Bus purchases are based upon a 7 to 10 year replacement cycle and allocation of an average of 300,000 per year for bus purchase debt service. 4
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Assumptions for Revenues: Annual appropriated fund balance of at least 1.1 million Foundation Aid in accordance with state budget adopted for 2013-14, and 1 to 2 percent increase each ensuing school year. Expenditure-driven aids based upon levels of expenditure and Present Law ; costs reimbursed in the year following expense at the aid ratios set forth by State Education Department calculations. 5
FINANCIAL 2013-14 TO 2018-19 Areas of uncertainty revenue related: Uncertainty of assessed valuation of properties, along with equalization rates. Many changes with the STAR program. Possible inability to continue annual fund balance appropriation at current level. Stagnate interest earning rates and future impact on interest earnings on bank deposits. Continuing challenges to assessments by utility companies. Need to take into account the tax levy limit mandate ( 1.4 to 1.6% for 2014-15). 6
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Areas of uncertainty expense related: Budget increases resulting from negotiations with employee bargaining units. Staffing needs to accommodate programmatic changes and to provide students greater opportunities to meet or exceed state academic performance standards and graduation requirements. Uncertainty of annual increases in health insurance premiums. Potential for significant increases in energy costs, especially diesel fuel and heating oil. Uncertainty of future student enrollment, including enrollments in special education. 7
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 ENROLLMENT Elem K-6 (not Pre-k) Grades 7-12 Out-of-District ACTUAL 2013-14 426 397 36 859 2014-15 427 404 38 869 2015-16 438 391 38 867 2016-17 444 388 38 870 2017-18 437 395 38 870 2018-19 440 389 38 867 1.16% -0.23% 0.35% 0.00% -0.34% 8
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 BUDGET 2013-14 APPROPRIATIONS 9,425,516 43,695 1,292,330 504,326 83,003 394,305 1,346,758 6,427,866 2,073,804 2015-16 9,708,281 43,258 1,318,176 499,283 82,173 390,362 1,380,427 6,620,702 2,009,852 2016-17 9,999,529 42,825 1,344,540 494,290 81,351 386,458 1,414,937 6,819,323 1,814,575 2017-18 10,299,515 42,397 1,371,431 489,347 80,537 374,865 1,450,311 7,023,903 1,785,481 2018-19 SALARIES EQUIPMENT CONTRACTUAL SUPPLIES SOFTWARE, LIBRARY, TEXTS TUITION - OTHER SCHOOLS BOCES EMPLOYEE BENEFITS DEBT SERVICE / OTHER TOTAL DOLLAR CHANGE 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552,578 9 572,613 460,912 345,316 519,957 634,791 2.72% 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% PERCENTAGE CHANGE 9,150,986 44,136 1,266,990 509,420 83,841 406,500 1,313,910 6,240,647 2,002,559 2014-15 10,608,501 41,973 1,398,859 484,453 79,732 363,619 1,486,569 7,234,620 1,854,252
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 APPROPRIATIONS BUDGET 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 TOTAL With Debt Service Change % Change 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552,578 572,613 460,911 345,316 519,958 634,791 2.72% 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% TOTAL Without Debt Service Change % Change 19,016,430 19,517,798 20,042,661 20,583,254 21,132,306 21,698,326 501,368 524,863 540,593 549,052 566,020 2.64% 2.69% 2.70% 2.67% 2.68% 10
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 BUDGET 2013-14 1,474,204 Fund Balance Usage 9,476,630 Basic State Aid 308,381 All Other Sources Payment in Lieu of Taxes 493,918 Property Taxes and Related 9,265,856 REVENUES 2014-15 1,500,000 9,618,779 340,000 503,796 9,629,026 2015-16 1,400,000 9,763,061 350,200 513,872 10,025,380 2016-17 1,300,000 9,860,692 360,706 524,150 10,352,282 2017-18 1,200,000 9,959,299 371,527 534,633 10,852,328 2018-19 1,100,000 10,058,892 382,673 545,325 11,465,688 Total With Building Aid and Capital Reserve Use 21,018,989 21,591,602 22,052,513 22,397,829 22,917,787 23,552,578 258,644 572,613 460,912 345,316 519,957 634,791 Dollar Difference 2.87% 2.72% 2.13% 1.57% 2.32% 2.77% Percent Difference TAX LEVY CHANGE TAX LEVY % CHANGE 363,170 3.92% 396,354 4.12% 326,902 3.26% 500,046 4.83% 613,360 11 5.65%
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Analysis of data previously presented Based upon the factors listed previously in the presentation, the baseline budget is projected to increase each year in the range of 2 to 3 percent, as a matter of staying the course. However, due to the still slow economic recovery from The Great Recession, there remains tremendous uncertainty with the state aid component of the financial picture. This huge unknown obviously hinders our long-range planning analysis. Thus, we need to be very conservative with projections of any state aid increases. The enrollment pattern seems to have stabilized following the drop caused in 2011 by Hurricane Irene. 12
FINANCIAL 2014-15 TO 2018-19 Analysis of data previously presented (continued) Note that even with moderate budget growth of an average of 2.6%, the resulting tax levy increase each year would greatly exceed the tax levy limitation formula. Therefore, an additional draw-down of available fund balance, and/or substantial reductions in budget appropriations, would be necessary. 13
Five - Year Financial Forecast for Schoharie Central SD THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION