0 Turkey s World Bank Portfolio in Context Sally Zeijlon ECA Quality Unit Manager February 6, 2012
1 Turkey in the World Bank and ECA Turkey s loans are significant in the Bank s loan portfolio Commitments Turkey ECA IBRD has loaned $8.14 billion to Turkey since FY 2008 Turkey is an important Middle Income Country (MIC) in the world and especially in the Europe and Central Asia Region Turkey innovates in operations with World Bank support Turkey s program succeeds But there are new challenges and opportunities Turkey ECA Projects 14 235 Net Comm Amt $ 5,565.8 $ 20,972.3 % Commit at Risk 2% 6% % Proactivity 75% 70% % Realism Index 100% 69%
GDP Growth (%), 2000-2007 in ECA ECA is a diverse region (30 countries, 480 million people) Pre-2009: Achievements - Strong growth in many countries driven by trade, capital flows and remittances Regional Poverty Rates (percentages) 2008 -Rapid decline in poverty -EU expansion to east with 10 ECA countries joining EU and converging rapidly to EU income levels 2 2
3 RECOVERY MOMENTUM IS THREATENED BY UNFOLDING DEBT CRISIS IN EUROZONE Forecasts for Euro zone growth in 2012 are getting gloomier 2011-2012 Euro zone Growth Prospects Growth prospects for the Eurozone have declined Projections made in Jan. 2011 Projections made in April 2011 Projections made in June 2011 Projections made in September 2011
4 4 REGIONAL STRATEGY IS FULLY ALIGNED WITH WORLD BANK GROUP PRIORITIES WBG Priorities ECA Strategic Pillars ECA Challenges Create Opportunities for Growth and Employment Target the Poor and the Vulnerable Strengthen Governance and Institutions Engage in Global Issues Manage risk and prepare for crises Deepened Reforms for Improved Competitiveness Social Sector Reforms for Inclusive Growth Climate Action for Sustainable Growth Drivers of pre-crisis growth (capital flows and strong growth in export markets) are unlikely to return quickly Social inclusion and equity issues will grow in importance, but will be tougher to address in a period of fiscal consolidation The need to improve energy efficiency and vulnerability to climate change will grow
ECA STRATEGY IS PRIORITIZED AND CUSTOMIZED AT COUNTRY LEVEL BASED ON CLIENT DEMAND AND BANK COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE 5 Russia EU Members e.g. Bulgaria Other MICs e.g. Turkey IDA/ Blend e.g. Armenia Fragile States e.g. Kyrgyz Republic Competitiveness Economic diversification Investment climate Public sector modernization Regional development Infrastructure and public expenditure efficiency Public sector institutional capacity development Investment climate Financial sector Public administration reform SMEs Investment climate Infrastructure and mining Public administration reform Finance SMEs In the event of continuing transition to stability, support for financial sector, mining & agri-business If transition is stalled, livelihoods support till situation stabilizes Inclusion Improving the delivery of social and communal services Roma inclusion Labor markets, education and gender equity CDD More effective safety nets Protection of social spending Improved social services Community infrastructure Employment Climate Action Energy efficiency Energy efficiency Energy Sector Reforms Renewable energy Renewable energy Also Russia as an emerging donor Turkey as a regional and global player Sub-regional water/energy
6 ECA ENDING MATCHES THE STRATEGY New Bank Lending Commitments FY09-FY11 by Strategic Pillar competitiveness
US$M 7 Size and Performance of Turkey s Active Portfolio Turkey's Investment Portfolio Net Comm Amt # Proj % At Risk % Commit at Risk 30 25 20 15 10 5 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $0
8 Turkey s portfolio basics Current Investments by Sector Renew Energy, $1,000 Transport, $185 Urban, $1,065 Current Implementation Performance Ratings MS 27% Pvt Sector Dev't, $2,097 Land Reg., $203 Energy, $814 Environment, $23 Human Dev't, $179 S 67% MU 6%
US$M 9 IBRD Portfolio: Large, Focused & Effective Fewer Projects $6,000 25 $5,000 22 21 20 $4,000 18 16 15 $3,000 14 $2,000 10 $1,000 5 $0 $5,539 $5,829 $5,668 $5,422 $5,566 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 0 Net Comm Amt # Proj
Percent Satisfactory Outcome Number of Project Exits 10 Quality Good Development Outcomes All on-going projects currently expected to meet development objectives 100 80 60 40 20 Exits % Satisfactory 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
11 Continued Quality Better than average implementation, but need for continuous attention 67% fully satisfactory 27% marginally satisfactory 6% marginally unsatisfactory Meeting legal, fiduciary, and safeguard expectations All standards now being met with recent improvements Flexible responses to problems Restructuring for changing priorities and reform pace Selective cancellation Some problems lingered too long Half of the current portfolio has been extended One project has been unsatisfactory for some years
US$M 12 Turkey s use of WB instruments $3,500 New Lending by Year and Type $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 SIL FIL ERL DPL APL $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
13 Imaginative Use of Tools Turkey has been uniquely successful in the use of Financial Intermediation Loans Complementary to early banking reform work Successful ways to reach SMEs, and address energy issues An important part of the multi-country program of loans for energy transmission and trade The first country to receive a Clean Technology Fund grant Using advisory services and lending to support the country s health reform Adapting the Development Policy Lending series to the pace of reform Making technological leaps (e.g. gas storage)
14 Financial Intermediation 10 loans since 2000 totaling almost $3B FY Preject # Amount 2000 EFIL 1 $ 252.5 2004 EFIL 2 1 $ 303.1 2005 EFIL 3 1 $ 305.0 2006 Access to Fin for SMEs 1 $ 180.2 2007 ACC TO FIN FOR SMEs-AF 1 $ 66.7 2008 TR EFIL IV 1 $ 600.0 2009 ACCESS to FINANCE for SMEs - AF 1 $ 200.0 2010 ACCESS to FINANCE for SMEs - AF2 1 $ 250.0 ACCESS TO FINANCE FOR SME II 1 $ 500.0 2011 TR EFIL IV Additional Financing 1 $ 300.0 Total 10 $ 2,957.5 + Private Sector Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency - $1B
15 World Bank Services & Instruments Specific Investment Loans (SIL) Financial Intermediation Loans (FIL) Adaptable Programs Loans (APL) Development Policy Loans (DPL) Trust Funds Clean Technology (CTF) Carbon Finance Institutional Development (IDF) Advisory and Analytical Services (AAA) Becoming increasingly flexible & programmatic and some newer items
16 P for R Program for Results In January 2012, the World Bank introduced a new instrument, the Program for Results 3 rd lending tool Disburses as intended results are achieved Disbursement is not linked to policy reform or specific purchases Requires program design and capacity Is in a pilot phase for two years (up to 5% of World Bank total lending) Highly suitable for strong institutions with clear aims
17 Fee-Based Services Bank products to provide client countries with analytic products for which the Bank is reimbursed Offered to MICs and high income countries FBS portfolio in ECA is growing considerably as clients needs change FBS agreements in 14 ECA countries, Russia largest client with 46 signed agreements Examples of FBS programs in ECA Russia St. Petersburg High Speed Orlovski Tunnel Romania Functional Reviews Poland Financial Reporting Technical Assistance
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