August 2014 APTA Sustainability Workshop Boston, MA Climate Change & Public Transit The New Normal
This is what Sandy looked like on October 29, 2012 2
And this is what the MTA looked like to Sandy 3
UNPRECENDENTED STORM SURGE ALONG HUDSON RIVER SHORELINE SIGNIFICANT WIND/TREE DAMAGE KNOCKS OUT SERVICE ALONG HARLEM LINE AND NEW HAVEN LINE and the NEW CANAAN AND DANBURY BRANCHES FLOODING KNOCKS OUT COMMUNICATIONS, SIGNALS, AND POWER AND FLOODS STATIONS AND YARDS STORM SURGE IN NJ AND HARMON YARDS DAMAGES ROLLING STOCK 4
Numerous other locations with moderate flooding and wind damage including Downed trees Roof / canopy / sidings damages Communication systems damages Signal system damages 8 stations with major flood damage South Ferry, Whitehall, 148 th St, 207 th St, Dyckman, Beach 116 th Station, 86 th St Sea Beach, Stillwell Train yards and bus depot with significant flood damage Rockaways track washout Staten Island Railway maintenance shop major flood damage 5
Sandy s targets included: Stairways Tunnel Portals Manholes Vents Rail Yards Hatches 6
Damage was catastrophic across the system B&T Queens Midtown Tunnel Shorted electrical equipment Metro-North Hudson Line Destroyed pump control NYC Transit South Ferry Failed signals 7 LIRR West Side Yard Metro-North Spuyten Duyvil Station Flooded track and equipment
Building Back Better The MTA and Superstorm Sandy The engineering challenge is formidable: small openings can deliver huge amounts of water under pressure 6 ft. 5 ft. 11 in. 6 ft. 5 ft. 11 in. 0.5 inch opening => open area, A = 0.993 sq. ft. Coefficient C = 0.67 g = 32.2 ft./sec/sec h = 3.0 ft. water head Q = 9.25 cu. ft./sec = 4,152 gal/min = 249,120 gal/hr. In 4 hrs.: approximately 1 M gallons would have entered 8
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Resiliency Development Assess damage Repair/Replace determination Evaluate shut-down (packaging scenarios) Damaged pump equipment, Hugh L. Carey Tunnel Work in Greenpoint Tube Corroded Metro-North Switch Machine 10
An unprecedented portfolio of storm recovery and resiliency work is underway for all MTA agencies 36 projects in construction, total value of $578m 151 projects in planning, design, or procurement Over $800m in contracts underway B&T eligible for FEMA; all other agencies eligible for FTA Emergency Relief 11
On-going work Hugh L. Carey Tunnel LIRR Long Beach Yard Metro-North Hudson Line NYCT Montague Tube 12
Resiliency Approach Protective Measures - keep water out Asset Protection - minimize damage if water enters system Recovery - expedite service restoration Water exclusion Water ejection and asset protection Recovery and resilient systems/processes 13
Resiliency Concepts Sidewalk Vent Cover Manhole Inserts Deployable Staircase Cover Deployable Flood Wall Trap Bag Barrier Water-filled Cofferdam 14
MTA Climate Adaptation Task Force Objective: Coordinate resiliency efforts across agencies 15
Design Guidelines 16
NPCC 2013 Sea Level Rise Projections 58 39 30 Percentiles 90 th 75 th 21 18 25 th 10 th 10 8 11 8 13 4 2 2020s 2050s 2080s 17 New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2013: Climate Risk Information 2013: Observations, Climate Change Projections, and Maps. C. Rosenzweig and W. Solecki (Editors), NPCC2. Prepared for use by the City of New York Special Initiative on Rebuilding and Resiliency, New York, New York.
GIS Analysis 18
Metro-North Railroad Inundation Mapbook 19
Internal Clearinghouse 20
Rebuilding costs a lot, but remember The MTA s network is a nearly $1 trillion asset The current Capital Program with Sandy projects represents a reinvestment over five years of less than 4% of the system s total value, or less than 1% per year of re-investment Current funding sources are tapped out, new funding will have to come from non-traditional places. 21
MTA Cat Bond: Why & How Post-Sandy, MTA s captive insurance company, First Mutual Transportation Assurance Company ( FMTAC ), received reduced capacity offers from the traditional property reinsurance market coupled with higher pricing in the renewal. On June 5, 2013 MTA and FMTAC staff received authorization from the Board to proceed with structuring and marketing of a capital markets-based reinsurance transaction providing storm surge coverage GOALS Access to additional reinsurance capacity for catastrophic perils Developing a stable, long term alternative reinsurance Creating competition with traditional reinsurance, thereby providing leverage Demonstrating reasonable efforts to obtain property coverage comparable to prior years' coverage levels 22
MTA Cat Bond: Why & How Map of Calculation Locations Area B Area A Area A tidal gauges measure surge closely correlated with surge at MTA assets located in Manhattan and up the Hudson, Harlem and East Rivers Area B tidal gauges measure surge closely correlated with surge at MTA assets located near Long Island Sound Index Value for Area A is a weighted composite of the readings at three of its gauges; Index Value for Area B is a weighted composite of the readings at two of its gauges During a Named Storm, if either the Area A Event Index Value reaches or exceeds 8.5 ft or the Area B Event Index Value reaches or exceeds 15.5 ft, a full principal reduction is triggered and the $200 million collateral moves into the reinsurance loss account. The Base Case annual probability of the transaction triggering is estimated to be 1.67%, or once in 60 years. 23
MTA Cat Bond: Very well received MetroCat Re inaugural transaction sponsored by FMTAC closed on July 30, 2013: FMTAC obtained $200 million of fully collateralized storm surge reinsurance protection, locked in for three years FMTAC entered into a reinsurance agreement with special purpose reinsurer MetroCat Re Ltd., providing $200 million in fully collateralized storm surge coverage supplementing FMTAC s $500 million in property coverage obtained from traditional reinsurance markets The transaction involved the first capital market cat bond focusing directly on storm surge risk Investors reacted favorably to the parametric trigger structure and the pricing was tighter than anticipated, due to high demand for the MetroCat Re bonds The resulting cost to FMTAC was substantially lower than that of traditional property reinsurance obtained by FMTAC in April, 2013. Capital market risk transfer enabled FMTAC to obtain fully secured property reinsurance protection against storm surge without requiring MTA or FMTAC to become a catastrophe bond issuer - FMTAC entered into a reinsurance agreement with MetroCat Re Ltd. 24
Longer term funding: Carbon Value Capture 25
Longer term funding: Carbon Value Capture 16.9 2.1 ~17 million metric tons of Transit Avoided Carbon has the potential to generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually 26
Thank you Questions?