Percent Purdue Outlook Update 211 211 Indiana Agricultural Outlook Corinne Alexander & Chris Hurt hurtc@purdue.edu Ethanol World Economic Growth Dollar Value Surprises and Uncertainty! Change Wheat Production 21 vs. 29 World -.6% Canada -1.1% FSU-12-1.7% EU -22.4% Ukraine -2.2% U.S. + 2.2% 1% 8% Quarterly Real GDP: 1979-21 6 3 Month, 3 Year, 1 Year, and 2 Year Treasury Rates 6% 4% 2% 4 % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% 79881828384886878889991929394996979899 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 3 2 1 2 Year Treasury 1 Year Treasury 3 Year Treasury 3 Month Treasury JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 4 6 7 8 9 1 1
6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/1 1/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/2 2/21 $/Bu. Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update 211 Corn: USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Million Bu. Carryin 1,34 1,624 1,673 1,386 Production 13,74 12,92 13,11 13,16 Total Supply 14,398 13,729 14,791 14,6 Feed & Residual,974,2,2,2 FSI Non-Fuel 1,338 1,316 1,36 1,39 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 3,26 3,677 4,3 4,7 Export 2,436 1,88 1,98 2,1 Total Use 12,774 12,6 13,4 13,44 Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,386 1,116 US Farm Price $4.2 $4.6 $3. $4.-$4.8 $4.4 Corn: Ending Stocks 3 32.9 32.3 32. 29.9 29.6 28. 28.4 29. 28.8 3 2. U.S. World 2. 24.9 24.3 2 2.3 19.6 19.2 19. 19.8 19.2 18.9 2 18.1 17.6 17. 17. 17.1 16.2 16.3 16.7 16.3 1.2 14.9 1 13.9 11.2 11.4 1. 11.6 12.8 13.9 1.7 1 9.4 8.3. 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 $. $4.9 $4.8 $4.7 $4.6 $4. $4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.1 $4. Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: 9-1-1 $4.72 $4.63 $4.47 Dec Futures = $4.78 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Central Ind. Avg Southern indiana S. Ind Avg $. $4.9 $4.8 $4.7 $4.63 $4.6 $4. $4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.1 $4. Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures Forecast: 9-1-1..8.14.14.19.12 Dec Futures = $4.78.14.14.17 -.12 -.12 $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. -$.2 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 19.9 Corn + Soybean Biofuel Acres by 22 (Millions) 26.3 38.4 39. 39.6 4.1 39. 38.9 38.2 37.6 37. 3. 36.4 33. 3.7 Crop Years 2
9/91 92/93 94/9 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/ 6/7 8/9 1/11 Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update 211 7 6 China Corn Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports Soybeans:USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Million Bushels Carryin 74 2 138 1 4 3 2 1 Production 2,676 2,967 3,39 3,483 Total Supply 3,26 3,18 3,12 3,643 Seed & Residual 93 12 117 18 Crush 1,81 1,662 1,7 1,6 Exports 1,161 1,283 1,49 1,48 Total Use 3, 3,47 3,362 3,293 Ending Stock 2 138 1 3 Farm Price $1.1 $9.97 $9.6 $9.1-$1.6 $9.9 3 Soybean Carryover Stocks-to-Use $1.8 Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: 9-1 -1 $1.6 Central Indiana Cash Soybean Futures Forecast: 9-1-1 $1.2 U.S. World 3 28.8 26.7 23.61 24.63 2.19 2 22.44 23.1 2.79 18.11 18.86 18.97 19.1 18.42 19.4 19.71 2.1 19.33 19.92 2 18.6 17.9 1.79 14.4 1.6 1 13.6 13.4 14. 13.4 11.82 1.7 1.7 1.6 1 8.8 8.6 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.4 6.7.4 4. 4. 4.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. $9.8 $9.6 1.38 $9.8 $1.11 Nov Futures = $1.31 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Avg Central Ind Southern Ind Cash S. Ind Avg $1.4 $1.2 $1. $9.8 $9.6 $9.4 $1.11..16.18 Nov Futures = $1.31.14.13.4.8.1.13 Returns to On- Farm Storage. -.16 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. -$.2 -$.4 3
89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/9 9/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/ /6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update 211 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 China Soybean Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Soybean Imports from the U.S.: 199/91-21/11 (Million Bu.) FAS Data China Mexico Japan Wheat: USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 9/11 Million Bushels Carryin 46 36 67 973 Production 2,67 2,499 2,216 2,264 Total Supply 2,63 2,932 2,991 3,338 Feed & Residual 3 2 1 17 Other Domestic 1,3 1, 987 1,16 Exports 1,264 1,1 881 1,2 Total Use 2,329 2,27 2,18 2,436 End Stocks 36 67 973 92 Farm Price $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $4.9 - $.6 $.3 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Wheat: World and U.S. Endings Stocks 4.6 U.S. World 39. 39.8 3.7 36.6 36.1 3.6 31.4 28.9 26. 24.1 19.7 21.4 23. 2. 23.2 24.2 22.3 2. 19.3 1.8 13.2 With $.1 U.S. price averages expect about $42/acre of 1 Crop ACRE Payments. Crop in 29 will average around $8/acre 4
Purdue Outlook Update 211 7 6 4 3 2 1 China Wheat Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports Variable Costs (Average Cropland) Crops 29 $/acre 21 $/acre 211 $/acre % 1 to 11 Continuous Corn 443 3 376.9% Rotation Corn 42 342 361.6% Rotation Soybeans 223 183 187 2.2% Wheat 194 149 163 9.4% Double Crop Soybeans 181 16 16.8% Prices 211 Estimated Crop Budget: Indiana: September 1, 21 Corn Soybeans Wheat HarvestBasis $4.8 $1.26 $7.43 Expected Basis -.3 -.4 -.8 Expected Cash Price $4.23 $9.86 $6.63 Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs Corn $4.23 Soybeans $9.86 Wheat $6.63 Wheat/DC Beans Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre $/acre Low 129. $22 39. $29 62. $26 $329 Average 161. $32 49. $296 7. $31 $422 High 193. $441 9. $38 84. $371 $44 Budget: Purdue Id-166 (August 21) 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% -6.% -8.% Domestic Per Capita Availability: 21 4.6% 3.% 1.3% 1.7% Beef Pork Broilers Turkey -.8% -2.3% -2.3% -.7%
$/Cwt. $/cwt Purdue Outlook Update 211 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ $48 $46 $44 $42 $4 $38 Barrow & Gilt prices and Per Capita Supplies $4. $. $. $47.84 $47.26 $47.9 $41.24 Price Per Capita Supply 6 7 8 9 1 11 3 1 49 47 4 43 41 39 37 3 $6 $ $ $4 44 $4 $3 $3 Estimated Hog Prices and Costs Per Live Hundredweight: 7 2 1 46 43 48 2 46 3 4 3 7 Hog Price Costs 42 43 41 39 9 8 3 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 8 6 49 $98 $93 $88 $83 $78 Choice Steer per Capita Supplies and Prices $98. $94. $91.82 $92.27 $87.28 $8.41 $83.2 Price Per Capita Supply 6 7 8 9 1 11 7 6 6 4 4 $2 $19 $18 $17 $16 $1 $14 $13 $12 $11 $1 U.S. All Milk Price 19.13 18.34 16. 16. 12.84 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 $4,7 $4, $4,2 $4, $3,7 $3, $3,2 $3, $2,7 $2, $2,2 $2, $1,7 $1, $1,2 $1, $7 $ Indiana Land Values and Cash Rents: Purdue $4,419 Land Value Cash Rent $2,1 $913 $2,94 $2,173 $4,24 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 6
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