Economic Scenario Generator and Investment Strategy in a Low Interest Rate World

Economic Scenario Generator and Investment Strategy in a Low Interest Rate World Placeholder for Head Shot if desired Presented by Edward Yao, FCS, CF, CER Vice President, Risk & Capital Management Solutions genda Economic Scenario Generator Current Interest Rate Environment and Impact on P&C Insurance Industry Investment Strategy for Sample P&C Insurer Q & 1 What is an Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) stochastic model in most cases Can be deterministic, but application would be very limited Randomness: Uncertainty in the future system of stochastic difference/differential equations Monte-Carlo simulator Monte Carlo methods (or Monte Carlo experiments) are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results; i.e., by running simulations many times over in order to calculate those same probabilities heuristically just like actually playing and recording your results in a real casino situation: hence the name. -- Wikipedia generator of future distributions of different economic variables generator of time-series of economic variables Not a tool to make forecasts 2 1

Purposes of ESG Why do we need a ESG? Business decision making under uncertainty Demand of better risk management from regulators and rating agencies Solvency II ORS S&P M Best Pricing/valuation of contingent cash flows 3 Clarification of Some Terminology Real world Initial-to-normative vs. normative-to-normative Risk neutral Market consistent valuation rbitrage free 4 ey Features of an ESG ey economic variables are being modelled Covering a broad range of asset types Dynamic relationships among the variables are captured and internal consistency are maintained Flexibility and efficiency in calibration and parameter estimation using benchmark data Models can be fully validated Simulation can lead to unexpected/not-yet-observed but plausible outcome. 5 2

Important decisions for an ESG Type of scenarios Real World or Risk Neutral Initial-to-normative or Normative-to-normative Model choices Interest Rate Models Credit Models Inflation Models Equity Index Models Models for additional asset classes and economic variables Model calibration Expected level, volatility, and correlation Simulation properties Frequency: annual, quarterly, or monthly Number of periods Number of paths 6 Calibration of Real-World ESG Calibration is a process of setting the parameters so that the scenarios generated ESG satisfy certain pre-defined quantifiable characteristics. The goal of a real-world ESG is to generate economic and financial time series that are realistic and reflect the assumptions of future development of economic and financial variables: Representing the observed dynamics and distributional characteristics of historical data Professional forecasts / Expert opinions 7 Interest rate environment 6.00 10 Year Treasury Yield 5.00 Interest Rate (%) 4.00 3.00 2.00 90 day Treasury Yield 1.00 0.00 1/31/2002 4/30/2002 7/31/2002 10/31/2002 1/31/2003 4/30/2003 7/31/2003 10/31/2003 1/31/2004 4/30/2004 7/31/2004 10/31/2004 1/31/2005 4/30/2005 7/31/2005 10/31/2005 1/31/2006 4/30/2006 7/31/2006 10/31/2006 1/31/2007 4/30/2007 7/31/2007 10/31/2007 1/31/2008 4/30/2008 7/31/2008 10/31/2008 1/31/2009 4/30/2009 7/31/2009 10/31/2009 1/31/2010 4/30/2010 7/31/2010 10/31/2010 1/31/2011 4/30/2011 7/31/2011 10/31/2011 1/31/2012 4/30/2012 7/31/2012 10/31/2012 1/31/2013 4/30/2013 7/31/2013 s of Date Source: Bloomberg 8 3

Interest rate environment 18.00 16.00 14.00 Interest Rate (%) 12.00 10.00 8.00 10 Year Treasury Yield 6.00 4.00 2.00 90 day Treasury Yield 0.00 1/30/1948 1/30/1950 1/30/1952 1/30/1954 1/30/1956 1/30/1958 1/30/1960 1/30/1962 1/30/1964 1/30/1966 1/30/1968 1/30/1970 1/30/1972 1/30/1974 1/30/1976 1/30/1978 1/30/1980 1/30/1982 1/30/1984 1/30/1986 1/30/1988 1/30/1990 1/30/1992 1/30/1994 1/30/1996 1/30/1998 1/30/2000 1/30/2002 1/30/2004 1/30/2006 1/30/2008 1/30/2010 1/30/2012 s of Date Source: Global Financial Database; Bloomberg 9 Interest rate environment Term Premium 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00-1.00 1/29/1982 1/29/1983 1/29/1984 1/29/1985 1/29/1986 1/29/1987 1/29/1988 1/29/1989 1/29/1990 1/29/1991 1/29/1992 1/29/1993 1/29/1994 1/29/1995 1/29/1996 1/29/1997 1/29/1998 1/29/1999 1/29/2000 1/29/2001 1/29/2002 1/29/2003 1/29/2004 1/29/2005 1/29/2006 1/29/2007 1/29/2008 1/29/2009 1/29/2010 1/29/2011 1/29/2012 1/29/2013 Term Premium (%) s of Date Source: Bloomberg 10 Interest rate environment 4.00 US Industrial Credit Spread 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50-4/1/1991 11/1/1991 6/1/1992 1/1/1993 8/1/1993 3/1/1994 10/1/1994 5/1/1995 12/1/1995 7/1/1996 2/1/1997 9/1/1997 4/1/1998 11/1/1998 6/1/1999 1/1/2000 8/1/2000 3/1/2001 10/1/2001 5/1/2002 12/1/2002 7/1/2003 2/1/2004 9/1/2004 4/1/2005 11/1/2005 6/1/2006 1/1/2007 8/1/2007 3/1/2008 10/1/2008 5/1/2009 12/1/2009 7/1/2010 2/1/2011 9/1/2011 4/1/2012 11/1/2012 6/1/2013 3 Month 10 Year Source: Bloomberg 11 4

Impact on P&C Insurance Companies Net investment Net income income earned Net underwriting Net Capital Gains Other Income Before Income Year ($'000) gain (loss) ($'000) (Losses) ($'000) ($'000) Tax ($'000) 2012 49,236,993 (13,438,268) 9,032,838 2,499,107 47,330,669 2011 51,369,890 (35,212,378) 7,579,382 2,415,894 26,152,788 2010 49,861,020 (8,527,901) 8,296,097 979,289 50,608,505 2009 50,918,364 1,314,557 (8,254,481) 887,556 44,865,996 2008 54,421,335 (19,506,667) (21,222,553) 391,595 14,083,709 2007 58,063,181 22,831,900 8,994,578 (814,688) 89,074,971 2006 55,084,608 35,436,197 3,594,307 2,798,457 96,913,569 2005 51,906,655 (6,220,796) 12,119,428 1,853,805 59,659,092 2004 41,788,071 4,194,824 9,192,055 (323,164) 54,851,786 2003 41,151,925 (2,912,620) 6,518,958 (223,707) 44,534,555 2002 41,097,451 (29,368,464) 2,823,786 (730,465) 13,822,308 Source:.M.Best. 12 Impact on P&C Insurance Companies 110% Recent History of US P&C industry s Combined and Operating Ratios 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Operating Ratio Net Investment Income Ratio Combined Ratio Source:.M.Best, Conning analytics. 13 Impact on P&C Insurance Companies US Property-Casualty Insurance Industry Historical Book Yield Rates 6% 5.1% 5% 4.7% 5% 4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Book Yield Note: Calculations based on net investment income divided by net investable assets. Source:.M.Best, Conning analytics. 14 5

How to respond strategically? sset llocation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1% Net Cash - Bonds 76.8% 78.3% 77.6% 75.9% 74.6% 71.9% BBB Bonds 4.9% 7.0% 8.0% 8.2% 9.3% 10.7% High Yield Bonds 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% Common Stock 8.1% 5.0% 5.9% 6.4% 6.4% 7.1% Schedule B 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% Investment Real Estate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Other* 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% Bond Sector llocation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend 12.7% 12.4% 13.8% 13.6% 13.2% 10.6% US Govt Corp 23.2% 24.6% 26.9% 29.6% 31.0% 32.9% gency / Muni 40.3% 40.7% 37.4% 35.3% 32.5% 33.7% Hybrid 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Other Govt 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% Parents / Subs / ffiliates 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% Structured Securities 21.6% 20.2% 19.1% 18.2% 19.8% 19.5% Bond Market llocation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend 96.4% 96.1% 95.0% 93.7% 92.2% 90.6% Publically-traded Bonds Private Placement Bonds 3.6% 3.9% 5.0% 6.3% 7.8% 9.4% Source:.M.Best; Conning analytics. 15 How to respond strategically? Quality Distribution 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend 92.2% 90.1% 88.8% 87.9% 86.5% 84.4% NIC 1 NIC 2 5.9% 8.1% 9.2% 9.5% 10.8% 12.6% NIC 3 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% NIC 4 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% NIC 5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% NIC 6 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% vg. 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend Investment Grade 98.0% 98.1% 97.9% 97.5% 97.3% 97.0% Below Investment Grade 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% Maturity Distribution 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend 14.1% 15.6% 15.2% 15.0% 14.2% 15.5% <=1 Yr 1-5 Yrs 30.7% 32.8% 36.9% 40.3% 41.9% 41.3% 5-10 Yrs 33.0% 29.9% 28.0% 26.5% 26.4% 26.7% 10-20 Yrs 13.4% 13.2% 12.1% 11.4% 10.7% 10.1% >20 Yrs 8.8% 8.6% 7.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.5% vg. 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.4 Source:.M.Best; Conning analytics. 16 How to respond strategically? Investment strategy: shorten duration, search for additional yield, buy floating rate assets, use derivatives Underwriting strategy: write less long tailed lines, be more selective in risks underwritten, change product features (for life insurers with interest sensitive liabilities) Management needs to evaluate a wide range of options in a consistent framework The evaluation needs to consider both asset and liabilities, both risk and reward, and a wide range of possibilities 17 6

Modelling system for strategy evaluation Economic Scenario Generator External Environment Interest Rates Credit Spreads Equity Indexes Inflation, GDP, Unemployment Market Value and Cash Flows Prepayments Credit Rating Transitions Enterprise Model ssets Liabilities Investment Model ll Major sset Classes Investment Portfolios Duration, Credit Quality, etc.. Rebalancing Management Decision Dynamic Management Behavior Investment Strategy Shifts Dividends Liability Model Premiums Losses and Expenses CT models Detailed Inflation/Trend Models Reinsurance models Correlation Etc.. Financing ccounting Tax Regulatory GP, Stat, IFRS, Fair Value Balance Sheet Income and Cash Flow Statements Regulatory/Rating gency Capital Tax Model 18 Investment Strategies: n Example of Long Tailed P&C Insurer Some key long-term economic and capital market assumptions: US Inflation: 2.5% 3 Month US Treasury Yield: 3.25% 10 Year US Treasury Yield: 4.75% US Large Cap Equity Index Total Return: 8.5% Liability assumptions (expected loss and expense ratios and volatility, loss reserve volatility, payment patterns) based on the data of M Best Workers Compensation Composite with reserve duration about 5 years. The future business development assumptions use Conning Research & Publication s forecasts for Workers Compensation line of insurance. The projection horizon is five year. 19 Simulated Distributions of Economic Variables: Example 10 Year US Treasury Yield 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.9-0.99 0.8-0.9 0.6-0.8 0.4-0.6 0.2-0.4 0.1-0.2 0.01-0.1 Paths verage 0 80 40 357 37 Source: Bloomberg, Conning GEMS model simulation. 20 7

Simulated sset Class Returns: Example Cash Equivalents US 5 to 7 Year Tax-exempt Municipal Bonds US 5 to 7 Year Government Bonds US 5 to 7 Year -rated Corporate Bonds US Intermediate High Yield Bonds US Large Cap Equity Private Equity 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 nnual Return: Std. Dev. verage nnual Return Cash Equivalent US 5 to 7 Year Govt Bond US 5 to 7 Year Corp Bond US 5 to 7 Year TE Muni Bond US Intermediate HY US Large Cap Equity Private Equity 1.000 Cash Equivalent US 5 to 7 Year Govt Bond 0.017 1.000 US 5 to 7 Year Corp Bond 0.011 0.927 1.000 US 5 to 7 Year TE Muni Bond 0.024 0.980 0.909 1.000 US Intermediate HY (0.008) 0.549 0.612 0.538 1.000 US Large Cap Equity 0.085 0.012 0.104 0.017 0.365 1.000 Private Equity (0.097) (0.008) 0.036 (0.009) 0.173 0.478 1.000 Source: Conning GEMS model simulation. 21 Economic Value Efficient Frontier Economic Value = Market Value of ssets - Discounted Value of Liabilities + Value of future business - Discounted Value of Taxes More objective More consistent across entities and countries Other measures converge to economic value overtime Efficient Frontier x y z Return Return Return Return Risk Risk Risk Risk 22 Duration: Rising Interest Rates 40.40 40.30 D E FG H I 40.20 40.10 C 40.00 39.90 39.80 B 39.70 39.60 39.50 8.10 8.15 8.20 8.25 8.30 8.35 8.40 8.45 B C D E F G H I Duration 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.4 Government 56% 30% 10% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 44% 70% 90% 95% 97% 97% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% ΔReward / ΔRisk 50.5 16.4 6.2 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 23 8

Duration: Prolonged Low Interest Rates 51.00 50.00 49.00 I D E 48.00 H G 47.00 46.00 F C 45.00 B 44.00 43.00 7.90 8.40 8.90 9.40 9.90 B C D E F G H I Duration 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.2 8.1 Government 69% 32% 22% 16% 12% 5% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 31% 68% 78% 84% 88% 95% 97% 97% 100% 100% 100% ΔReward / ΔRisk 52.0 15.4 8.2 5.9 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 24 Duration: Normative Condition 48.50 48.00 47.50 47.00 46.50 46.00 45.50 45.00 44.50 C B D E F G H I 44.00 43.50 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 C E G B D F H I Duration 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.4 Government 60% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 40% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% ΔReward / ΔRisk 49.2 15.6 8.6 5.8 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 25 Impact of Inflation Risk 48.50 48.00 47.50 H I 47.00 46.50 46.00 45.50 45.00 44.50 F D E C B G 44.00 43.50 8.25 8.45 8.65 8.85 9.05 9.25 9.45 9.65 B C D E F G H I Duration 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.4 Government 44% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 46% 87% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TIPS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% ΔReward / ΔRisk 60.0 15.4 8.5 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 26 9

Tax-advantaged Municipal Bond Ratio 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 Historical 10-Year Muni to Gov't Yield Ratio Historically muni yields had been lower than US Treasury yields due to tax-exempt status. 0.40 an-50 an-52 an-54 an-56 an-58 an-60 an-62 an-64 an-66 an-68 an-70 an-72 an-74 an-76 an-78 an-80 an-82 an-84 an-86 an-88 an-90 an-92 an-94 an-96 an-98 an-00 an-02 an-04 an-06 an-08 an-10 an-12 s of Date Currently muni yields are above US Treasury yields. Source: Global Financial Database; Bloomberg. 27 Tax-advantaged Municipal Bond 49.00 48.00 47.00 46.00 45.00 44.00 D E C B F G H I 43.00 8.25 8.45 8.65 8.85 9.05 9.25 9.45 9.65 9.85 B E H C D F G I Duration 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.7 Government 39% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 51% 87% 90% 87% 84% 78% 76% 74% 71% 69% 59% Municipal 0% 0% 0% 3% 6% 12% 14% 16% 19% 21% 31% TIPS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% ΔReward / ΔRisk 53.3 15.8 8.5 5.9 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 28 Tax-advantaged Municipal Bond more profitable underwriting 62.00 61.00 60.00 59.00 58.00 57.00 56.00 55.00 B C D E F G H I Efficient Frontier with Muni Efficient Frontier without Muni 54.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 B C D E F G H I Duration 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 7.1 Government 72% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 13% 73% 68% 61% 57% 55% 47% 45% 40% 37% 24% Municipal 5% 16% 22% 29% 33% 35% 43% 45% 50% 53% 66% TIPS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% ΔReward / ΔRisk 53.7 14.9 8.5 6.0 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 29 10

Equity and lternative Investments 54.00 52.00 50.00 48.00 E 46.00 B CD 44.00 42.00 F G H I 40.00 8.25 8.75 9.25 9.75 10.25 10.75 11.25 11.75 12.25 B D E H I C F G Duration 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.6 7.2 7.8 Government 33% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corporate 47% 87% 89% 85% 79% 70% 66% 62% 52% 38% 12% Municipal 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 15% 18% 20% 27% 37% 55% TIPS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Common Stock 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 11% 14% 21% Private Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% ΔReward / ΔRisk 95.7 16.5 9.0 6.1 4.4 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.9 30 What else to consider What would happen to the other key financials? What is the risk tolerance and what metrics to use? What would happen in the extreme scenarios? What if the key assumptions are wrong? Should we move to the strategic targets quickly? To what extend can we tolerate the investment portfolio deviating from the strategic targets? 31 Conclusion s a tool to develop strategy, an ESG is necessary but not sufficient. There is no one-size-fits-all solution and there is no silver bullet solution. Interest rate is just one risk factor and has to be considered together with other risk factors. For an insurance company s investment strategy, liability matters and it has to manage underwriting and investment strategies together in a coordinative fashion to perform well. The strategy development also needs to consider both likely and unanticipated future events. The key is to find the right balance of risk and reward, avoid overreaction, and diversify. 32 11

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