Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd.: Q1FY18 Results Update

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Edelweiss Investment Research Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd.: Q1FY18 Results Update Disappointing results, highest ever order backlog to boost performance in H2FY18 CMP INR 803 Target INR 954 Rating: BUY Upside: 19% Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd (RMTL) reported Q1FY18 results below our expectations as the lower opeing order backlog of carbon steel (CS) segment led to lower volumes for the segment. During Q1FY18, net sales de-grew by 13% to INR 295cr against our expectation of 10% growth. Lower turnover resulted into lower EBIDTA margins of 16% against our expectation of 18.6%. Net profits declined by 25% to INR 25cr against our expectation of INR 35cr. On the other hand, order booking has been exceptionally strong since April 2017 as company s total order backlog has grown to INR 2100cr from just INR725cr in April 2017. Majority of the order booking has been in CS segment where orders have come in from both Indian as well as international markets. On the back of strong order booking, the management is maintaining guidance of net sales between INR 1700-1800cr and EBIDTA margins of 16-18% for FY18E. Considering the traction in CS ordering and factoring in the impending order booking in refineries space for SS segment, we maintain our estimates for the company for FY18E-20E. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 954. Carbon steel Volume de-growth in Q1FY18, but highest ever current order backlog to boost performance Volumes in carbon steel segment de-grew by 29% on yoy basis to 31,642 tons in Q1FY18, due to lower opening order backlog. But in the past 4 months, the company has booked orders worth INR 1500cr taking the CS segment order book to INR 1800cr as on date. Orders have been booked in water projects across Gujarat, Rajashtan, and few other states in India. In the international market also, the company has booked various orders in African countries including LSAW pipes order from Dangote, Nigeria. RMTL has total carbon steel capacity of 350,000 tpa out of which LSAW capacity is of 40,000tpa. Considering the strong traction in the LSAW market, the company is looking to add another 1 lakh tpa of capacity in the Kutch plant, capex plan to be finalised in the next 1-2 months. Capex programs related to cross country oil & gas pipelines, city gas grid, new refineries, and large water projects is expected to keep the order booking momentum in the CS segment. Salil Utagi Research Analyst salil.utagi@edelweissfin.com Bloomberg: RMT:IN 52-week range (INR): 875/ 512 Share in issue (cr): 4.7 M cap (INR cr): 3,842 Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE :( 000): 18 Stainless steel-order booking delayed to H2FY18, capex program on track Stainelss steel segment witnessed volume growth of 24% to reach 4492 tons in Q1FY18. Stainless steel seamless segment is operating at >90% capacity utilisation while SS welded segment is operating at 60-65% capacity utilisation. Order booking in this segment has been particularly low as orders from refineries for BS-6 upgradation have been delayed to H2FY17. RMTL is expecting order booking to pick up as orders are expected to come in from BS-6 upgradation of refineries, recently announed capacity addition in nuclear power, chemicals, and fertilisers. In the international market, the managmenet believes, it has high chance of winning orders in soon to be awarded orders from Dangote, Nigeria. RMTL is well on its track to complete its INR 350cr capex adding another 20,000 tpa of SS seamless capacity by Q4FY19E. Public, 39.9 Promoter, 60.1 Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP of INR 954 We believe company s healthy order backlog of INR 2100cr, buoyant ordering momentum in domestic/international carbon steel pipelines, and leading market share and capabilities in stainless steel tubes will enable it to grow substantially above industry growth while maintaining strong balance sheet. We maintain our estimate of 19.1%/22.8% CAGR in net sales/ EBIDTA between FY17-20E with ex-cash RoCE touching 29.2% in FY20E. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation valuing the stock at same EV/EBIDTA multiple of 12x on FY19E basis arriving at target price of INR 954. Year to March (INR Crs.) Q1FY18 Q1FY17 %Chg. YoY Q4FY17 %Chg. QoQ FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Revenues (incl Op. Inc.) 295 338-13 388-24 1,412 1,667 1,901 % Growth (yoy) 18 14 EBITDA 47 61-22 68-31 257 308 361 % Growth (yoy) 20 17 Adjusted Net profit 23 31-25 40-41 144 155 183 Adjusted Diluted EPS 5 7-25 9-41 31 33 39 Diluted P/E (x) 26.0 24.2 20.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.5 12.0 10.1 RoACE (%) 18 20 21 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Ratnamani Sensex Date: 14 th August 2017 1 GWM

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. Q1FY18 Result Highlights Year to March (INR Crs.) Q1FY18 Q1FY17 %Change Q4FY17 %Change FY17 FY16 %Change Net Revenues (incl Op. Inc.) 295 338-13.0 388-24.2 1,412 1,718-17.8 Raw Materials Cost 187 216-13.7 242-23.1 880 1,130-22.1 Gross Profit 108 122-11.7 146-26.0 531 587-9.6 Operating Expenses 61 62-1.4 77-21.4 274 302-9.1 EBITDA 47 61-22.2 68-31.2 257 286-10.1 EBITDA margin 16.0 17.9 17.6 18.2 16.6 9.4 Depreciation 15 15 1.6 15-0.6 60 57 5.1 Other income 3 3 3 14 17-20.7 Net finance expense 1 2-22.3 1-0.7 6 6 1.3 Profit before tax 33 46 NA 55 NA 205 240-14.7 Provision for taxes 10 15 15 61 75-18.6 Reported Net profit 23 31 NA 40 NA 143.9 165-12.9 Extraordinary items/minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted Net profit 23 31 NA 40 NA 143.9 165.3 NA As % of net revenues COGS 63 64 62 62.4 65.8 Operating expenses 21 18 20 19.4 17.6 EBITDA 16 18 18 18.2 16.6 Reported net profit 8 9 10 10.2 9.6 Tax Rate (% of PBT) 31 33 28 30 31 2 GWM

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. Financials Income statement (Consolidated) (INR cr) Balance sheet (INR cr) Ratios Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E As on 31st March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Income from operations 1719 1412 1667 1901 2410 Equity share capital 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 ROAE (%) 16.9 13.0 12.4 13.2 17.0 Direct costs 1132 880 1058 1198 1518 Reserves & surplus 1,036 1,178 1,302 1,448 1,661 ROACE (%) 21.4 16.9 18.2 19.2 24.2 Employee costs 100 98 100 114 145 Shareholders funds 1,045 1,188 1,312 1,458 1,671 ROACE (%) (ex -cash) 22.9 17.8 19.8 21.5 29.2 Other expenses 302 274 300 342 410 Deferred Tax Liabilities 49 48 47 47 47 Debtors (days) 84 99 110 100 100 Total operating expenses 1433 1154 1358 1540 1928 Sources of funds 1,109 1,236 1,359 1,505 1,718 Current ratio 3.9 5.1 3.8 3.9 4.2 EBITDA 286 257 308 361 482 Gross block 858 919 1,157 1,307 1,307 Inventory (days) 96 123 130 120 120 Depreciation and amortisation 57 60 73 86 91 Depreciation 412 471 544 630 722 Payable (days) 40 75 70 65 65 EBIT 229 198 236 275 390 Net block 446 447 613 677 585 Cash conversion cycle (days) 139 147 170 155 155 Interest expenses 6 6 6 6 6 Capital work in progress 49 39 1 1 1 Adjusted debt/equity 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.2 Other income 17 14 9 13 26 Total fixed assets 495 486 614 678 586 Profit before tax 240 205 238 281 410 Other non current assets 8 16 16 16 16 Valuation parameters Provision for tax 75 61 83 99 144 Investments 24 74 74 74 74 Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Core profit 165 144 155 183 267 Inventories 295 339 345 371 446 Diluted EPS (INR) 35.0 30.9 33.1 39.1 57.0 Profit after tax 166 144 155 183 267 Sundry debtors 390 425 464 489 590 Y-o-Y growth (%) (5.1) (11.9) 7.4 18.1 45.7 Adjusted net profit 166 144 155 183 267 Cash and equivalents 12 15 48 105 296 CEPS (INR) 47 44 49 58 77 Equity shares outstanding (mn) 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Other current assets 66 57 57 57 57 Diluted P/E (x) 22.9 26.0 24.2 20.5 14.1 EPS (INR) basic 35.0 30.9 33.1 39.1 57.0 Total current assets 817 911 988 1,096 1,464 Price/BV(x) 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2 Diluted shares (Cr) 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Sundry creditors and others 208 172 251 275 336 EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 EPS (INR) fully diluted 35.0 30.9 33.1 39.1 57.0 Provisions 3 6 8 10 12 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 14.5 12.0 10.1 7.2 Dividend per share 5.5 0.0 9.8 11.5 16.8 Total CL & provisions 211 178 259 285 348 Diluted shares O/S 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Dividend payout (%) 15.6 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 Net current assets 606 733 729 811 1,116 Basic EPS 35.0 30.9 33.1 39.1 57.0 Uses of funds 1,109 1,236 1,359 1,505 1,718 Basic PE (x) 22.9 26.0 24.2 20.5 14.1 Common size metrics- as % of net revenues Book value per share (INR) 222 254 281 312 357 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Operating expenses 83.4 81.8 81.5 81.0 80.0 Cash flow statement (INR cr) Depreciation 3.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.8 Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Interest expenditure 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Net profit 166 144 155 183 267 EBITDA margins 16.6 18.2 18.5 19.0 20.0 Add: Depreciation 57 60 73 86 91 Net profit margins 9.6 10.2 9.3 9.6 11.1 Gross cash flow 223 203 228 269 358 Less: Changes in W. C. 186 124-37 25 114 Growth metrics (%) Operating cash flow 37 79 265 244 244 Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Less: Capex 67 59 200 150-0 Revenues 1.9 (17.9) 18.1 14.0 26.8 Free cash flow -30 19 65 94 244 EBITDA (4.4) (10.1) 19.8 17.1 33.4 PBT NA (14.4) 16.0 18.1 45.7 Net profit NA (12.4) 7.4 18.1 45.7 EPS NA (11.9) 7.4 18.1 45.7 3 GWM

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. Edelweiss Broking Limited, 1st Floor, Tower 3, Wing B, Kohinoor City Mall, Kohinoor City, Kirol Road, Kurla(W) Board: (91-22) 4272 2200 Vinay Khattar Head Research vinay.khattar@edelweissfin.com Rating Buy Hold Reduce Expected to appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period appreciate between 5-15% over a 12-month period Return below 5% over a 12-month period Ratnamani Metals 5 years price chart 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4 GWM

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