Navigating a maturing bull market Asia Pacific Wealth Management March 2018 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Review Market Performance EQUITIES 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 Jan Feb QTD 1Q18 Global Equities 6.5% 4.2% 5.0% 5.6% 23.1% 5.3% -4.1% 1.0% US 6.1% 3.1% 4.5% 6.6% 21.8% 5.7% -3.7% 1.8% Europe 6.3% 1.2% 2.8% 0.6% 11.2% 1.7% -3.8% -2.2% Asia 13.4% 8.4% 6.7% 8.1% 41.8% 7.5% -5.0% 2.2% Japan -0.4% 6.1% 2.2% 12.0% 21.3% 1.5% -4.4% -3.0% EM 11.5% 6.3% 8.0% 7.3% 37.5% 8.3% -4.6% 3.3% BONDS Global IG Bonds 1.3% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 7.1% 1.1% -1.0% 0.0% Global HY Bonds 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.5% 7.0% 0.8% -0.9% -0.1% 2 EM Sovereigns 4.1% 2.4% 2.5% 0.6% 9.7% -0.3% -2.0% -2.2% COMMODITIES Gold 8.9% -0.6% 3.1% 1.8% 13.5% 3.2% -2.0% 1.2% Oil (Brent) -7.0% -9.3% 20.1% 16.2% 17.7% 3.3% -4.7% -1.6% CURRENCIES Dollar Index -1.8% -4.7% -2.7% -1.0% -9.9% -3.2% 1.7% -1.6% Source: Bloomberg as of 28 Feb 2018. Returns for Europe and Japan are in local currency.
Recent sell-off not due to growth concerns Global cyclicals have not underperformed global defensives* The outperformance of cyclical sectors over defensive sectors show that investors are not worried about economic growth. Rather, it reflects worries over interest rates and inflation. Source: MSCI. Bloomberg. Data as of 12 Feb 2018. *Cyclicals include Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Technology and Industrials. Defensives include Utilities, Telecoms, Health Care and Consumer Staples. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include and expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. 3
Loosening lending conditions There can be no assurance that these market conditions will remain in the future. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Actual results may Easier lending environment points to stronger growth ahead % of banks tightening loans to large firms vs private non-residential fixed investment lagged three quarters The US' 4Q17 loans survey shows that US banks are making it easier for large companies to take on Construction & Industrial (C&I) loans. This has historically been a leading indicator for higher employment, capacity utilisation and corporate earnings. Source: Haver Analytics and Citi Research US Equity Strategy. As of 16 Feb 2018. 4
Not yet the end of the equity bull market Bear Market Checklist According to Citi s Bear Market Checklist, only 3.5 out of 18 indicators are flashing red. Citi analysts suggest that investors focus on the yield curve and credit spreads. A flat or downward sloping yield curve, together with high and rising credit spreads would potentially warrant more concern. Source: Citi Research as of 6 February 2018. 5
Still limited signs of inflation for now US - Core goods and services prices US unemployment rate, wages & PCE inflation Source: Bloomberg as of February 2018. Source: Haver Analytics as of February 2018. 6
What happens when inflation moves higher? High growth with low inflation S&P 500 MSCI EM CRB Commodity Index Dollar Index US Govt Bonds US Investment Grade Corporates Average return 15.7% 36.3% 5.9% 5.6% 6.8% 8.7% Standard Deviation 13.1% 16.9% 11.5% 7.0% 4.6% 5.2% Return/Risk 1.20 2.14 0.51 0.79 1.47 1.67 High growth with higher inflation Average return 7.6% 14.2% -8.1% 4.5% 8.7% Standard Deviation 17.2% 6.4% 7.7% 3.8% 6.5% Return/Risk 0.44 2.23-1.05 1.17 1.35 Source: Bloomberg and Citi Research. As of 15 February 2018. Moving to a higher growth and higher inflation backdrop has historically resulted in lower equity and bond returns but higher volatility. Dollar performance is weaker but commodity markets deliver better performance. 7
Could trade tensions weigh on markets? Largest Sources of US Steel Imports by Country Uncertainties remain as to how far the US is going with protectionism and how much reaction comes from China and other trading partners. Protectionism could pose some upside risks for US inflation, but for now Citi analysts think the impact on US consumer prices should be limited as steel and aluminum tariffs represent only around ~2% of total imports. Source: Citi Research. As of 3 March 2018. 8
US dollar expected to move lower in the medium term US net international investment position (excluding financial derivatives) as a % of GDP A sharp deterioration in the US net international asset position over the past 10 years will require a lower real exchange rate longer term or higher yields or both. Recent further fiscal deterioration from spending bills and tax reform are likely to add pressures. Eurozone growth is also expected to match the US over 2017 2019. EM economies are in better shape Source: Bloomberg and Citi Research. As of 15 February 2018. and the Japanese economy is catching up. 9
EM and commodities likely to benefit from a weak dollar Source: Bloomberg. As of 22 February 2018. 10
Stronger euro unlikely to derail the Eurozone economy The Eurozone overall trade surplus has widened since 2010, largely unaffected by large FX swings. Citi analysts remain positive on European equities. Euro nominal effective exchange rate The robust domestic demanddriven growth cycle is unlikely to be derailed by the strong euro. Profitability remains robust with the Trade surplus (% of GDP) stronger euro helping to offset the recent rise in commodity prices and helping support households and firms purchasing power. Source: Eurostat. Haver Analytics and Citi Research 11
The rise in bond yields may be limited US Treasury bond yields higher than most developed market yields Net bearish bets on ultra-long term US Treasuries by speculative investors has reached an all-time high. This could limit the rise in long term bond yields. At current levels, the yields on 10- year US treasuries are high compared to other developed markets. This could attract more demand, limiting the further rise in yields. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Indices as of February 6, 2018. 12
Selected bond opportunities exist US investment grade bond yields still higher than Europe s Citi favours banks, energy and materials within US investment grade corporate bonds. Despite expensive valuations, US high yields still offer higher yields versus euro denominated high yield corporate bonds. Other positives include tax reforms, healthy earnings and expectations of further decline in the default rate. Citi analysts are positive on USD Source: Bloomberg. Barclays as of 6 February 2018. and local currency Emerging Market bonds, with Latam still one of our more favoured regions. 13
Asset Allocation Source: Citi Private Bank GIC Asset Allocation as of February 2018. 14
Key takeaways Themes Strategies Expect greater volatility Macro trading strategies Long/Short + Alternatives Ride the weak dollar Emerging Market equities Commodities (ex oil) EUR/European equities Position for elevated yields US Investment Grade & High Yields, Emerging Market Debt 15
Important Information Citigold Private Client is a client segment of Citigroup Inc ( Citigroup ), which provides its clients access to a broad array of products and services available through bank and non-bank affiliates of Citigroup. Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Investment Publication and Analysis and Citi Global Markets (CGM) and voting members of the Global Investment Committee of Global Wealth Management. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. Investment products are not available to US persons and not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations. This document is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security, currency, investment, service or to attract any funds or deposits. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Therefore, investment products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor s investment objectives In any event, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and future results may not meet our expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors. Further, any projections of potential risk or return are illustrative and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Investments are not deposits or other obligations of, guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Neither Citigroup nor its affiliates can accept responsibility for the tax treatment of any investment product, whether or not the investment is purchased by a trust or company administered by an affiliate of Citigroup. Citigroup assumes that, before making any commitment to invest, the investor and (where applicable, its beneficial owners) have taken whatever tax, legal or other advice the investor/beneficial owners consider necessary and have arranged to account for any tax lawfully due on the income or gains arising from any investment product provided by Citigroup. If an investor changes country of residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Citigroup and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other businesses or affiliates of Citigroup, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information contained herein is also not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts. At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients. This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. If this document shows information coming from Citi Investment Publication and Analysis, please refer to the attached link: https://www.citigroupgep.com/geopublic/disclosures/indes_a.html which contains the important disclosures regarding companies covered by Citi s Equity Publication analysts, and please refer to the attached link: https://www.citigroupgeo.com/geopublic/disclosures/disclratings.pdf for details on the CIRA ratings system. 16 This document may not be reproduced or circulated without Citigroup written authority. The manner of circulation and distribution may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of, and to observe such restrictions. Any unauthorised use, duplication, or disclosure of this document is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution..
Important Information Structured products can be highly illiquid and are not suitable for all investors. Additional disclosures can be found in the disclosure documents of the issuer for each respective structured product described herein. Investing in structured products is intended only for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. OTC derivative transactions involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investment products are not insured, carry no bank or government guarantee and may lose value. Before entering into capital markets transactions, you should: (i) ensure that you have obtained and considered relevant information from independent reliable sources concerning the financial, economic and political conditions of the relevant markets; (ii) determine that you have the necessary knowledge, sophistication and experience in financial, business and investment matters to be able to evaluate the risks involved, and that you are financially able to bear such risks; and (iii) determine, having considered the foregoing points, that capital markets transactions are suitable and appropriate for your financial, tax, business and investment objectives. An investment in alternative investments can be highly illiquid, are speculative and not suitable for all investors. Investing in alternative investments is only intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing to bear the high economic risks associated with such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. Some of these risks may include: Loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment due to leveraging, short-selling, or other speculative practices. Lack of liquidity in that there may be no secondary market for the investment and none is expected to develop Volatility of returns Restrictions on transferring interests in the investment Potential lack of diversification resulting in higher risk due to concentration Absence of information regarding valuations and pricing Complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting; and Less regulated and higher fees than mutual funds. Individual funds will have specific risks related to their investment programs that will vary from fund to fund. 17
Important Information 1. Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Investment Research and Citi Global Markets (CGM) and voting members of the Global Investment Committee of Global Wealth Management. 2. This document is provided for general information only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. 3. Although the statements of fact in this material / presentation are obtained from sources that Citibank Berhad consider reliable and while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, Citibank Berhad does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty express or implied regarding it and no liability whatsoever will be accepted by Citibank Berhad or the author, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, for any error of fact or omission herein which may lead to any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or expenses arising from any reliance upon or use of the information in the material. 4. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank Berhad. 5. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. 6. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of the particular investment. Investments are not deposits or other obligations of, guaranteed or insured by Citibank Berhad, Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. 7. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. 8. Past performance is not indicative of future performance; prices can go up and down. 9. Investment products (including unit trust) are not available to US persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. 10. Investor should be aware that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If customer changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. 11. Citibank Berhad and its affiliates / subsidiaries do not provide legal and/or tax advice and are not responsible for advising a customer on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. 12. This document also does not constitute the distribution of any information by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such a document. 18