GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT March 23, 2016 Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
OUTLINE 1. Financing Strategy 2016 2. Government Securities Performance 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice. 2
Divider title GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FINANCING STRATEGY 2016
FINANCING TREND, 2004 2015 (trillion IDR) 370 3,0 320 270 2,3 2,3 2,5 2,5 2,0 220 170 120 70 1,1 0,5 0,9 1,3 1,6 0,7 1,1 1,8 1,5 1,0 0,5 20-30 0,1 - -80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Govt Securities - net 6,9 22,6 36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 119,9 159,7 224,7 264,6 362,3 Domestic Loan - - - - - 0,4 0,6 0,8 0,5 1,0 0,7 External Loan - net (28,1) (10,3) (26,6) (26,6) (18,4) (12,4) (4,6) (17,8) (23,5) (5,8) (12,4) 10,4 Others/Non-Debt - net 42,0 (1,2) 20,0 9,1 16,6 25,5 4,6 28,3 38,1 18,1 (4,3) (55,2) Budget Defisit, % to GDP 1,1 0,5 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,1 1,8 2,3 2,3 2,5 (0,5) Notes: Budget Realization 2015 4
GENERAL DEBT FINANCING STRATEGY FOR 2016 6. Active debt management and ALM 1. Manageable Debt-to-GDP ratio 2. Financial inclusion & market deepening DEBT POLICY IN 2016 BUDGET 5. Loan as an alternative instrument for financing 4. Selective external loan (infrastructure and energy sector) 3. Debt issuance for productive activity 5
GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2016 Description 2016 Budget A. Total Revenue 1,822.5 I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1. Taxation 1,546.7 2. Non-Taxation 273.8 II. Grant 2.0 B. Government Spending 2,095.7 I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 C. Primary Balance (88.2) D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) Deficit to GDP (2.15%) E. Financing 273.2 I. Domestic 272.8 a. Banks 5.5 b. Non-Banks 267.3 Government Securities 327.2 Domestic Loan 3.3 II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 Macroeconomics Assumptions Economic Growth: 5,3% Inflation: 4,7% Exchange Rate: Rp13.900/USD 3-Month Govt. Treasury Bills: 5,5% ICP: USD50/barrel Oil Lifting: 830 thousand barrels/day Gas Lifting: 1.155 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day Debt (Net) 330.88 Govt. Sec. (Net) 327.22 Issuance 546.62 Redemption & Cash Management (216.39) Debt Portfolio Management (3.00) Domestic Loan (Net) 3.26 Withdrawal 3.71 Redemption (0.45) Foreign Loans (Net) 0.40 Withdrawal 69.18 Redemption (68.78) [In IDR Trillion, where applicable] 6
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES INDICATIVE FINANCING PLAN FOR 2016 Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn) Preliminary Budget Government Securities (Net) 327,224 Redemption 197,339 Cash Management 19,054 Buyback 3,000 Government Securities (Gross) 546,618 Composition Domestic 76% Auction 66% Non-Auction 10% International Bond 24% Benchmark Series 2016 Series Coupon Maturity FR0053 8,250% July 15, 2021 FR0056 8,375% September 15, 2026 Domestic Issuance Weekly Auction: Conventional Securities: 23 x Islamic Securities: 23x Non-Auction: Retail bonds: SR (Q1), SBR (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan (Q3), and ORI (Q4) Private Placements: Based on request International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated) Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds; Maximum issuance international bond 30% from target gross. Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target Government Debt Securities (SUN): 76 %; Sukuk : 24% ATM for Government Securities (SBN): 9-11 years. FR0073 8,750% May 15, 2031 FR0072 8,250% May 15, 2036 Source: Ministry of Finance, USD/IDR: 13,052 1. SBR: Saving Bond Ritel or Retail Savings Bond 2. Sukuk Tabungan means Sukuk Savings Bond 3. ORI: Obligasi Ritel Indonesia or Indonesian Retail Bond 7
2016 SECURITIES FINANCING REALIZATION Budget 2016 Realization (a.o. March 23, 2016) *(Million IDR) % Realization to Revised Budget 2016 Government Securities Net 327,224,357 170,262,892 52.03% Government Securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 219,393,531 81,681,740 37.23% Issuance Need for 2016 546,617,888 251,944,632 46.09% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 154,497,132 Domestic GDS 105,854,132 -Coupon GDS 73,600,000 -Conventional T-Bills 15,500,000 -Private Placement 16,754,132 -Retail Bonds - International Bonds 48,643,000 -USD GMTN 48,643,000 -Euro GMTN - -Samurai Bonds - -Domestic GDS - Government Islamic Debt Securities 97,447,500 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 64,510,000 - IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 30,510,000 - Retail Sukuk 31,500,000 - Private Placement 2,500,000 Global Sukuk 32,937,500 8
Divider title GOVERNMENT SECURITIES PERFORMANCE
GDS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016 90,000 Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS) 60% 80,000 70,000 Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp20.84T/auction as of March 15, 2016 50% 60,000 40% 50,000 Average awarded bids 2015 = Rp10.59T/auction 30% 40,000 20% 30,000 10% 20,000 10,000 0% - -10% Average incoming bids 2016 = Rp27.41T, average incoming bids 2015 = Rp20.84T Average awarded bid 2016 = Rp14.58T while average awarded bid 2015 = Rp10.59 T. 10 10
GS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016 120,000 100,000 Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS) as of March 15, 2016 60% 50% 80,000 Average Incoming Bid 2015= Rp14.05T Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp6.75T 40% 60,000 30% 40,000 20% 20,000 10% - Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 15-Mar-16 0% Average incoming bids 2016 = Rp20.31T, average incoming bids 2015 = Rp14.05T Average awarded bid 2016 = Rp10.14T, while average awarded bid 2015 = Rp6.75T. 11 11
PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE GLOBAL BONDS 2016 Summary Terms of Offering RI0126 RI0146 Issuer Republic of Indonesia Issuer Ratings BB+ positive (S&P), Baa3 stable (Moody's), BBB- stable (Fitch) BB+ positive (S&P), Baa3 stable (Moody's), BBB- stable (Fitch) Issue Ratings BB+ (S&P), Baa3 (Moody's), BBB- (Fitch) BB+ (S&P), Baa3 (Moody's), BBB- (Fitch) Issue USD fixed rate USD fixed rate Size USD 2.250.000.000,00 USD 1.250.000.000,00 Pricing / Settlement Date December 1 / December 8, 2015 December 1 / December 8, 2015 Maturity January 8, 2026 January 8, 2046 Coupon 4.75% payable semi annually 5.95% payable semi annually Reoffer Yield / Price 4.800% / 99.599% 6.000% / 99.299% Format Rule 144A/Reg S Rule 144A/Reg S Listing SGX-ST SGX-ST Total Book Order USD 5.500.000.000 USD 2.600.000.000 Distribution Indonesia 14%, Asia 10%, Europe 14%, USA 62% Indonesia 2%, Asia 22%, Europe 26%, USA 50% Investor Type Fund/Asset Managers 75%, Banks 18%, Private Banks 1%, Insurance/Pension Funds 4%, Central Banks/Sovereigen Funds 2% Fund/Asset Managers 71%, Banks 6%, Private Banks 1%, Insurance/Pension Funds 21%, Central Banks/Sovereigen Funds 1% 12
SECONDARY MARKET PERFORMANCE Activities of the domestic bonds are growing Yields of Benchmark Series steadily decrease [In Percentage] As of March 23, 2016 22 45.00 OUTRIGHT 5Y 20 18 10Y 15Y 20Y 35.00 21.91 30.00 18.88 14 25.00 12 20.00 10 8 15.00 6 10.00 4 5.00 Mar'16 Dec'15 Jun'15 Sep'15 Mar'15 Sep'14 Dec'14 Jun'14 Mar'14 Dec'13 Jun'13 Sep'13 Mar'13 Dec'12 Jun'12 Sep'12 Mar'12 Sep'11 Dec'11 Jun'11 Mar'11 Dec'10 Jun'10 Sep'10 Mar'10 Dec'09 Jun'09 Sep'09 Mar'09-6.30 16.48 0.72 0.33 0.41 5.88 5.73 5.31 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.00 Spread (bid-ask) 7.91 2014 9.38 2015 0.09 12.23 9.90 8.26 Jan-16 Feb-16 s.d 23 Mar'16 Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond 40 14.12 As of March 23, 2016 35 Spread 7.735 bps (ask 7.692 bid 7.779) 12.88 12.00 10.75 10.45 2013 2014 11.40 9.00 7.04 20 10 0.76 3.07 0.38 1.54 0.16 0.34 0.22 4.39 Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond 15 10.15 8.80 0.14 2 25 As of March 23, 2016 REPO BI 7.39 (5Y), 7.74 (10Y), 8.20 (15Y), 8.24 (20Y) 16 30 REPO BANK 40.00 6.00 5.15 5.12 3.00 5 0-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 13
YIELD GS ON PEER S MARKET LCY 10 Year Government Bonds Latest Yield YTD Change (BP) MTD Change (BP) [in percentage] 22 HK 1.287-29.2-3.6 ID 7.796-94.9-46.7 JP -0.097-36.2-3.7 KR 1.846-23.9 +5.9 MY 3.826-36.0-10.4 PH 4.770 +67.0 +94.3 SG 2.057-54.1-21.9 TH 1.817-68.3-28.8 US 1.940-32.9 +20.6 VN 7.040-13.5 +0.3 Market Watch as of March 24, 2016 Source: Asian Bonds Online 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2-23 Mar '16 17 Mar '16 23 Feb '16 9 Feb '12 23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08 13 Sep'05 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of March 23, 2016 14
OWNERSHIP OF TRADABLE DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (in trillion Rp) Description Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 23-Mar-16 Banks* 265.03 36.63% 299.66 36.73% 335.43 33.70% 375.55 31.04% 350.07 23.95% 442.76 29.81% 460.39 30.53% 439.54 28.00% Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia**) 7.84 1.08% - 0.00% 44.44 4.47% 41.63 3.44% 148.91 10.19% 56.41 3.80% 47.04 3.12% 66.64 4.24% Bank Indonesia (gross) 150.18 10.11% 150.58 9.99% 149.48 9.52% GS use for Monetary Operation 93.77 6.31% 103.54 6.87% 82.84 5.28% Non-Banks 450.75 62.29% 517.53 63.21% 615.38 61.83% 792.78 65.52% 962.86 65.87% 985.99 66.39% 1000.37 66.35% 1063.77 67.76% Mutual Funds 47.22 6.53% 43.19 5.28% 42.50 4.27% 45.79 3.78% 61.60 4.21% 61.48 4.14% 62.71 4.16% 66.28 4.22% Insurance Company 93.09 12.86% 83.42 10.21% 129.55 13.02% 150.60 12.45% 171.62 11.74% 173.26 11.67% 179.03 11.87% 187.33 11.93% Foreign Holders 222.86 30.80% 270.52 32.98% 323.83 32.54% 461.35 38.13% 558.52 38.21% 578.32 38.94% 587.78 38.98% 605.80 38.59% Foreign Govt's&Central Banks 50.06 6.13% 78.39 7.88% 103.42 8.55% 110.32 7.55% 110.98 7.47% 112.31 7.45% 112.01 7.13% Pension Fund 34.39 4.75% 56.46 6.91% 39.47 3.97% 43.30 3.58% 49.83 3.41% 52.24 3.52% 54.47 3.61% 55.41 3.53% Individual 32.48 3.26% 30.41 2.51% 42.53 2.91% 41.42 2.79% 35.33 2.34% 65.99 4.20% Others 53.05 7.33% 63.64 7.79% 46.68 4.69% 60.51 5.00% 78.50 5.37% 78.99 5.32% 81.05 5.38% 82.95 5.28% Total 723.61 100% 817.19 100% 995.25 100% 1,209.96 100% 1,461.85 100% 1,485.16 100% 1,507.81 100% 1,569.95 100% 1) Non Resident are consisted of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company, and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks. 15
DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 27.09% 241.7 326.2 24.01% Insurance Company 552.3 497.0 505.5 356.5 361.4 24.11% 21.77% 19.74% 20.71% 12.79% 610.1 650.2 641.3 22.79% 22.86% 23.58% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 27.9% 90.1 108.4 27.4% 141.5 21.9% Pension Fund 180.4 169.5 156.4 136.5 22.6% 19.7% 18.4% 16.9% 185.1 16.7% 190.6 199.1 16.5% 17.9% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Dec-14 May-15 Dec-15* 0% 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dec-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Dec-15* 0% Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit Stock Mutual Funds Others Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS) Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit Stock Mutual Funds Others Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS) 350 Mutual Funds 60% 320 290 260 230 45% 37% 244.32 220.24 235.79 309.43 293.82 282.97 50% 40% 200 170 140 110 110.13 33% 159.00 28% 142.97 180.28 25% 20% 25% 20% 20% 22% 23% 30% 20% 80 71.48 50 10% 20-10 0% Government Securities (GS) Deposit Bond Stock Others Total Investasi % SBN (RHS) Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK), data processsed *) unaudited 16
Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITY Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor Monthly Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident 100% [In IDR Trillion] As of March 23, 2016 50.00 Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS] 0.1 80% 44.46% 42.81% 43.94% 44.56% 44.00% 44.67% 45.33% 44.68% 45.16% 46.09% 46.60% 40.00 39.48 0.08 60% 40% 20% 38.13% 38.61% 39.63% 37.59% 37.10% 38.15% 38.21% 38.94% 38.98% 38.59% 32.54% 32.04% 33.58% 34.88% 36.18% 39.69% 36.98% 39.50% 38.98% 38.36% 37.78% 37.67% 12.88% 15.23% 12.92% 12.46% 11.43% 11.02% 12.30% 11.82% 11.89% 11.53% 10.79% 5.41% 3.73% 2.89% 2.34% 1.54% 1.51% 1.54% 1.28% 1.55% 1.57% 1.66% 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 (10.00) (20.00) (30.00) (0.88) 17.97 4.22 (19.98) 2.81 (1.76) 10.13 23.98 6.08 (0.37) 4.82 16.49 15.77 16.10 20.15 6.43 14.67 15.95 12.49 13.17 21.34 (19.84) 23.04 6.84 4.10 6.31 (3.59) (3.90) (7.96) 8.38 5.39 (2.30) 21.37 19.80 9.46 18.03 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-0.02-0.04-0.06-0.08 0% 5.20% 4.65% 5.38% 4.45% 3.33% 3.31% 3.85% 3.23% 3.04% 3.04% 3.28% Dec 13 Dec 14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 23-Mar-16 0-1 1-2 2-5 5-10 10 %Foreign Ownership of Total Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors 17
Divider title CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL & BOND STABILIZATION FRAMEWORK
Implement Measures to Manage External Volatility to mitigate sudden reversals Pre-emptive Measures Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF) Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants First Line of Defense State s Budget State Owned Enterprises (BUMN) s Budget Bond Stabilization Framework Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) Related BUMNs (min. level Aware) Specific policies in place to address crises enacted in 2016 budget law Social Security Organizing Agency (BPJS) s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware) Crisis Management Protocol Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Indicators to determine crisis level of Government Securities Market condition (normal, aware, alert, crisis) Several market indicators that are monitored daily: - Yield of benchmark series; - Exchange rate; - Jakarta Composite Index; - Foreign ownership in government securities Policies to address the crisis at every level : - Repurchase the government securities at secondary market - Postpone or stop the issuance Second Line of Defense State s Budget State Owned Enterprises (BUMN) s Budget Social Security Organizing Agency (BPJS) s Budget State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis) Related BUMNs (min. level Alert) BPJS (min. level Alert) 19
Divider title DEBT OUTSTANDING & RISK PROFILE
TOTAL DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS OF END OF JANUARY, 2016 Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Domestic Foreign 44% 56% Foreign Domestic Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Loan Gov't Sec 24% 76% Gov't Sec Loan 21
OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT BY INSTRUMENT Description Nominal % a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68,6 68,4 63,6 58,4 53,9 54,2 54,5 24,2% Bilateral 42,3 42,1 37,2 31,5 26,7 24,5 24,8 11,0% Multilateral 23,2 23,5 23,8 23,7 23,5 26,1 26,0 11,6% Commercial 3,0 2,8 2,5 3,3 3,7 3,6 3,7 1,6% Suppliers 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0% b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0,0 0,1 0,19 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,1% c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118,4 131,0 140,8 136,3 155,2 170,1 174,9 77,9% Foreign Currency Denominated 18,0 21,6 27,4 32,8 36,7 44,3 46,9 20,9% Rupiah Denominated 100,4 109,4 113,4 103,5 118,5 125,8 128,0 57,0% Total Central Government Debt (in billion USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 187,0 199,5 204,5 194,9 209,4 224,6 229,7 Jan-16 Total Central Government Debt (in trilion IDR) 1.681,7 1.808,9 1.977,7 2.375,5 2.604,9 3.098,6 3.180,6 Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8.991,0 9.068,0 9.670,0 12.189,0 12.440,0 13.795,0 13.846,0 GDP (in trillion IDR) 6.864,1 7.831,7 8.615,7 9.524,7 10.542,7 11.540,8 Debt to GDP Ratio 24,5% 23,1% 23,0% 24,9% 24,7% 26,8% Notes: * Preliminary Figures 22
OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT BY CURRENCY 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-16 Original Currency IDR (in trillion) 993,0 1.098,0 1.263,9 1.477,5 1.740,0 1.777,1 Gov't Securities 992,0 1.096,2 1.261,7 1.474,6 1.736,1 1.772,9 Loan 1,0 1,8 2,2 2,9 3,9 4,2 USD (in billion) 43,9 49,8 56,8 61,0 69,8 72,4 Gov't Securities 20,4 25,6 31,3 34,2 39,7 42,3 Loan 23,5 24,2 25,4 26,8 30,1 30,1 JPY (in billion) 2.589,8 2.498,8 2.395,3 2.204,0 2.126,9 2.136,0 Gov't Securities 95,0 155,0 155,0 155,0 255,0 255,0 Loan 2.494,8 2.343,8 2.228,8 2.049,0 1.871,9 1.881,0 EUR (in billion) 5,0 4,5 4,2 5,1 6,1 6,1 Gov't Securities - - - 1,0 2,3 2,3 Loan 5,0 4,5 4,2 4,1 3,9 3,9 Other currencies Equivalent in Billion USD ----------------Multiple Currencies ----------------------- IDR 109,5 113,5 103,7 118,8 126,1 128,3 57,1% USD 43,9 49,8 56,8 61,0 69,8 72,4 32,2% JPY 33,4 29,1 22,8 18,5 17,7 18,0 8,0% EUR 6,4 6,0 5,8 6,2 6,7 6,7 3,0% Other currencies 6,3 6,1 5,8 5,0 4,4 4,2 1,9% Total Eq. in Billion USD 199,5 204,5 194,9 209,4 224,6 229,7 Equivalent in Trillion IDR IDR 993,0 1.098,0 1.263,9 1.477,5 1.740,0 1.777,1 USD 397,9 481,9 692,0 758,3 963,0 1.002,3 JPY 302,5 281,2 278,3 229,8 243,6 249,4 EUR 58,5 57,5 71,1 76,9 92,1 93,1 Other currencies 57,1 59,1 70,2 62,4 60,0 58,7 Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1.808,9 1.977,7 2.375,5 2.604,9 3.098,6 3.180,6 Foreign Currency Portion 45,1% 44,5% 46,8% 43,3% 43,8% 44,1% Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 9.068 9.670 12.189,0 12.440,0 13.795,0 13.846,0 Notes: * Preliminary Figures 23
10.7% 10.6% 10.8% 9.9% 10.5% 9.9% 11.6% 10.5% 11.1% 11.8% 7.7% 7.2% 7.5% 6.7% 7.9% 6.8% 8.6% 7.5% 8.8% 7.8% CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 24,5% 2.9% Debt to GDP Ratio 23,1% 23,0% Debt Service to GDP Ratio 3.2% 2.9% 24,9% 24,7% 3.5% 26,8% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 3.2% Interest Payment to Revenue and Expenditure Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue & Central Government Expenditure Ratio 9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version] * Preliminary Figures 24 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure
RISK INDICATORS Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk 20.3 26.1 25.9 18.8 22.5 23.2 16.2 16.0 21.0 21.1 14.8 14.0 46.2 45.1 44.4 46.7 43.4 43.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 11.7 10.7 11.8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *) Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%] 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *) FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) Average Time To Maturity Average Time To Maturity 9.70 9.60 9.73 34.2 34.6 Debt Maturing Debt Maturing 32.4 33.4 33.9 35.3 9.46 9.32 9.28 20.8 22.7 21.5 21.8 20.1 21.8 7.1 8.2 7.2 8.6 7.7 8.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *) ATM (in years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *) in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%) *) Preliminary figures Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks 25
Divider title END OF PRESENTATION Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Debt Securities Frans Seda building, 4 th Floor Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat Postal Code: 10710 Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516 Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id