Consumer Confidence Survey GB Q4, 2010 Survey field dates 10 th November to 1 st December 2010
Topline Summary Nielsen/BRC Consumer Confidence Survey December 2010 Consumer Confidence ended 2010 lower than at the start, Q4 did however see a marginal improvement on Q3. Latest quarters, Consumer Confidence saw a slight improvement as consumers felt slightly more positive about their job prospects and their personal finances. Les negativity around willingness to spend likely to be a seasonal fluctuation. Top 6 GB concerns all impact household income. The proportion of consumers who have no spare cash has increased from 26% in Q3 to 27% in Q4. This is at an all time high. Putting spare cash into savings or paying off debts is higher up shoppers agendas than spending on discretionary items. With rising food costs and falling disposable incomes, switching to cheaper grocery brands is an established strategy for staying within budget. 2
Confidence has fallen in 25 out of 52 Markets 3 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2006-2010
Global Consumer Confidence remained unchanged from Q3 at 90, but finished the year 2 index points lower than the start. GB Consumer Confidence improved on Q3 but also ended the year lower than the start. GB Consumer Confidence Index versus Global Average, Neighbouring Countries & USA 120 100 80 60 108 99 97 84 106 100 97 94 91 79 80 88 82 83 82 84 80 80 79 77 74 70 72 65 61 60 60 86 87 92 93 84 82 85 87 75 77 80 78 67 67 68 63 90 81 75 67 90 81 77 65 40 Q3, 06 Q1, 07 Q3, 07 Q1, 08 Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 Global* Average GB France USA 4 *June/December global index based on sub-set of 28/9 countries Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2006-2010
The proportion of global population believing we are in recession remains polarised, as the Asia Pacific economies are booming and Europe continues to be hit by escalating concerns over debt. Optimism continues to be driven by Asia Pacific where the economies of China, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore are all in growth, whilst Europe continues to struggle especially those close to bankruptcy collectively known as PIIGS*. Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment? Q1, 2010 Q2, 2010 Q3, 2010 Q4, 2010 89 84 85 86 87 88 82 84 82 84 86 79 % answered yes 58 58 56 57 Global Average GB France USA 5 *PIIGS Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2008-2010 - GB results
Great Britain Consumer Confidence Q4, 2010
Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index GB Shoppers confidence improved in the final quarter but ended the year lower than the start. 98 101 97 91 94 79 74 65 72 75 77 80 78 75 77 Q1, 05 Q1, 06 Q3, 06 Q1, 07 Q3, 07 Q1, 08 Q3, 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 % pt +/- +3-4 -6 +3-15 -5-9 +7 +3 +2 +3-2 -3 +2 7 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Results: GB, 2005 to 2010
The proportion of shoppers feeling good about their job prospects improved on the previous quarter, but is still lower than two years ago. 7% 10% 10% 41% 40% 40% Do you think job prospects in your country over the next 12 months will be... 6% 3% 7% 3% 7% 6% 6% 14% 23% 42% 26% 24% 21% 21% 20% 26% 27% 73% 46% 47% 53% 51% 50% 51% 53% 48% 46% 44% 48% 46% 44% 31% 23% 17% 20% 20% 20% 17% 18% 9% 13% 4% 4% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% Q3, 06 Q1, 07 Q3, 07 Q1, 08 Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2. 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 Excellent Good Not so good Bad * Don't Know 8 * new survey response option Q1 2008 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2006 to 2010 GB results
Compared to the start of 2010, the proportion of shoppers feeling good about their personal finances has fallen from 41% to 3, as income has not kept pace with rising household costs, there was however a slight improvement on the previous quarter. Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next 12 months will be.. 7% 12% 8% 4% 4% 4% 6% 13% 14% 17% 12% 12% 14% 9% 12% 13% 13% 41% 37% 38% 60% 44% 46% 49% 49% 46% 42% 4 42% 48% 47% 47% 46% 49% 37% 34% 28% 32% 33% 36% 39% 39% 30% 32% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% Q3, 06 Q1, 07 Q3, 07 Q1, 08 Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2. 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 Excellent Good Not so good Bad * Don't Know 9 * new survey response option H1 2008 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2006 to 2010 - GB results
GB has ended Q4 as it started, with a third of the population able and willing to spend discretionary income but two thirds are reluctant over spending Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say at this moment the time to buy the things you want and need is... 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 10% 1 1 22% 23% 23% 18% 23% 19% 16% 19% 16% 22% 46% 47% 46% 51% 46% 47% 49% 41% 4 48% 46% 42% 48% 64% 41% 36% 36% 23% 27% 26% 27% 31% 30% 31% 30% 29% 29% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 3% Q3, 06 Q1, 07 Q3, 07 Q1, 08 Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2. 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 Excellent Good Not so good Bad * Dont' Know 10 * new survey response option H1 2008 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2006 to 2010 - GB results
Top 6 GB concerns all impact household income and 4 of these have increased since October.. What is your biggest concern over the next 6 months? Increasing utility bills The economy Debt Job security Increasing food prices Increasing fuel prices Health Immigration Work/life balance Terrorism Childrens' education and/or welfare Crime Parents' welfare and happiness 11% 14% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 12% 10% 7% 6% 6% 6% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% Q3, 10 Q4, 10 11 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q3 2010 - GB results
Increasing utility bills has become the number 1 concern, overtaking the economy. Increasing fuel prices have not gone unnoticed. What are your biggest concerns over the next 6 months? Increasing utility bills The economy 14% 13% Increasing food prices 7% 13% 13% 13% 20% 27% 26% vs Q3, 10 = = Job security 12% 7% 19% Debt 12% 6% 18% Increasing fuel prices 6% 7% 13% Health 6% 6% 12% = Immigration 10% Work/life balance Terrorism 4% 4% 9% 9% Main Concern Secondary Concern Childrens' education and/or welfare 2% 7% Crime Parents' welfare and happiness 2% 2% 4% 3% 6% 12 = Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q3 2010 - GB results
Personal debt remains a persistent worry for one in five shoppers and as a main concern has actually increased for some in 2010. No 1 Concern 2nd Concern 23% 24% 18% 8% 10% 19% 8% 9% 20% 6% 17% 7% 19% 20% 18% 8% 8% 6% 10% 13% 11% 1 14% 10% 11% 12% 12% Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 % pt +/- +5-4 +5-4 -3 +2 +1-2 13 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey, Results: GB, 2008 to 2010
4 out of 5 shoppers still believe GB to be in economic recession and a diminishing proportion expect to be out of it in the next 12 months Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment? (Yes) 94 95 84 82 84 82 of those who think we are in a recession Do you think your country will be out of economic recession in the next 12 months? (Yes) 27 29 24 17 20 14 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10 Q3, 10 Q4, 10 14 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 2009-2010 - GB results
Proportion of GB shoppers anticipating a double dip recession are increasing... Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? 22% 24% 21% 21% 19% 24% 29% 17% 20% 14% Yes 51% 48% 50% 48% 51% 50% 44% 52% 56% 58% No 27% 28% 29% 30% 30% 26% 27% 31% 24% 28% Don't know Global Average Q4, 09 Global Average Q1, 10 Global Average Q2, 10 Global Average Q3, 10 Global Average Q4, 10 GB Q4 09 GB Q1, 10 GB Q2, 1O GB Q3, 10 GB Q4, 10 15 Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey 2009-2010 Consumer Confidence
The proportion of GB shoppers claiming to have no spare cash continues to increase and quarter of those that do are paying off debts. Once you have covered your essential living expenses, which of the following statements best describes what you do with your spare cash...? Putting into savings I have no spare cash Holidays / vacations 26% 27% 26% 31% 30% 34% Paying off debts / credit cards / loans New clothes Home improvements / decorating 18% 24% 23% 2 24% 26% Out of home entertainment 18% 21% New technology Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds Retirement fund Don t know/undecided 3% 4% 4% 7% 14% 16% Q3, 10 Q4, 10 16 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q3 2010 - GB results
68% of GB shoppers are making savings to stay within budget. Compared to this time last year, have you changed your spending to save on household expenses? % answered yes 62% Global Average 71% GB 68% 70% USA France 62% 63% 64% 66% Q3, 10 Q4, 10 17 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q3 2010 - GB results
Reigning in expenditure on new clothes is further evidence that shoppers are once again feeling the pinch and this strategy has moved back up the savings hierarchy to joint first place with bills. Compared to this time last year, which of the following actions would you take in order to stay within your budget? Spend less on new clothes Try save on gas and electricity Cut down on take-away meals Switch to cheaper grocery brands Cut down on out-of-home entertainment Cut down on holidays / short breaks Cut down on telephone expenses Delay replacement of major household items Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile Use my car less often Cut out annual vacation Look for better deals on loans, insurance, credit cards Cut down on at-home entertainment Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol Cut down on smoking 13% 1 24% 23% 31% 29% 31% 29% 28% 28% 32% 34% 37% 38% 37% 37% 42% 42% 42% 40% 50% 51% 59% 60% 60% 57% Q3, 10 Q4, 10 6 6 61% 6 Of those households looking to stay within budget. 18 *results from a sub-set of those who have said yes, they have changed the way they shop to save money Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q4 2010 - GB results
Shoppers will continue to make savings by switching to cheaper grocery brands. The continued poor exchange rates for GB shoppers may explain the increase in those looking cut back on holidays. When economic conditions do improve, which of these do you expect you will continue to do? Try to save on gas and electricity Cut down on take-away meals Switch to cheaper grocery brands Spend less on new clothes Cut down on telephone expenses Cut down on out-of-home entertainment Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit cards.. Use my car less often Cut down on holidays / short breaks Delay the replacement of major household items Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile, etc Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol Cut out annual vacation Cut down on smoking Cut down on at-home entertainment 10% 10% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 12% 11% 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% 19% 21% 24% 24% 23% 2 29% 31% 30% 30% 28% 39% 38% 56% 54% Q3, 10 Q4, 10 19 *results from a sub-set of those who have said yes, they have changed the way they shop to save money Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q4 2010 - GB results
Saving on household essentials such as bills, groceries and discretionary items: clothes and take-aways are established strategies to save money Compared to this time last year, which of the following actions would you take in order to stay within your budget? Try to save on gas and electricity Cut down on take-away meals Spend less on new clothes Switch to cheaper grocery brands Cut down on telephone expenses Cut down on out-of-home entertainment Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit cards etc Use my car less often Cut down on holidays/short breaks Delay the replacement of major household items Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile etc Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol Cut down on smoking Cut out annual vacation Cut down on at-home entertainment 30% 30% 28% 23% 28% 19% 29% 18% 18% 18% 17% 23% 14% 1 12% 29% 12% 28% 11% 38% 37% 42% 42% 40% 51% 54% 57% 61% 6 6 of those HH looking to stay within budget Now Post Economic Crisis 20 *results from a sub-set of those who have said yes, they have changed the way they shop to save money Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q4 2010 - GB results
Outlook for 2011
GDP declined 0. in the final quarter of 2010. Worst December weather on record has been widely blamed, as hotels and restaurants contributed most to the decline. Negative growth will re-ignite fears that GB is heading for a double dip recession, analysts have reworked GDP accounting for the weather and suggest the final quarter would have come in at zero. GDP Growth UK output decreases by 0. Real GDP quarterly growth 22 Source: ONS January 26 th 2011
Bleak GB Outlook for 2011 Negative GDP in Q4 will re-ignite fears that GB is heading for a double dip recession. Nielsen s Consumer Confidence survey has identified a diminishing proportion of shoppers believing GB will be out of recession in 12 months There is significant evidence that Shoppers are already feeling the impact of falling disposable income... Unit growths remain weak Promotions remain at an all time high Shoppers are not willing to spend on discretionary categories such as general merchandise Despite GB Consumer Confidence improving in the final quarter, it ended the year weaker than at the start. Discretionary expenditure is expected to be squeezed harder in 2011 as household income for most shoppers is unlikely to keep pace with the cost of living. 23
Retail Outlook for 2011 An increasing proportion of shoppers have no spare cash, those that do are more likely to put into savings or pay off debts than spend on discretionary items. For many homeowners there is an anticipation that interest rates will rise in the second half of 2011, putting another squeeze on discretionary spend. Looking ahead Grocery Retailers will need to find new incentives to encourage shoppers to spend, as shoppers will have to manage on LESS household income. 24