Chart Collection for Morning Briefing January, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
16 Figure 1. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES 6 14 1 Local Currency 4 8 US Dollars 3 6 4 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 2. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX* (US$) 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 3. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 6 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 4 3 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. 7 Figure 4. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 6 6 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (local currencies) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 1/3 4 3 4 3 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 2 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 9 9 Figure. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 6 4 1 1 1 12 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 3 13 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. 8 9 Figure 6. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 9 1 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) 1 1 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 12 13 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 3 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 7 6 4 3 2 Figure 7. GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa) Global M-PMIs Total (2.7) Developed Markets (4.) Emerging Markets (1.2) Dec 6 4 2 1 49 48 47 11 12 13 14 16 17 Source: JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM. 48 14 Figure 8. EMERGING MARKETS: EXPORTS (=, sa) 14 1 Oct 1 8 Value (nsa) Volume (sa) Oct 8 6 6 4 4 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Page 4 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 2 Figure 9. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: 16 (percent change ytd) Latest data thru: 12/3/16 3 2 - - - - S&P Index (9.) Consumer Discretionary (4.3) Consumer Staples (2.6) Energy (23.7) Financials (.1) Health Care (-4.4) Industrials (16.1) Information Technology (12.) Materials (14.1) Real Estate (.) Telecom Services (17.8) Utilities (12.2) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 16 Source: Standard & Poor s. - - - - 3 Figure. S&P FORWARD P/E RATIOS* 3 3 2 S&P Index (17.3) Consumer Staples (19.4) Financials (14.2) Health Care (14.3) 3 2 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure 11. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (percent) INDUSTRIALS 2 2 3 Capitalization Share (12.2) Earnings Share* (11.3) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 CONSUMER STAPLES (9.3) (8.3) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 ENERGY 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 FINANCIALS (7.) (4.) (14.9) (18.1) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 (.3) (9.8) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (.9) (21.7) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 MATERIALS (2.9) (2.9) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES (2.6) (3.2) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 4 3 3 2 12 8 6 4 2 12 8 6 4 2 HEALTH CARE (13.) (16.3) 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 UTILITIES 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 * Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts. May 3 swings attributable mostly to index composition changes. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. (3.1) (3.2) Page 6 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
82 67 Figure 12. S&P PHARMACEUTICALS STOCK PRICE INDEX* (AGN BMY ENDP JNJ LLY MNK MRK MYL PFE PRGO ZTS) 82 67 2 2 37 37 22 22 7 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 7 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. 47 47 367 277 Figure 13. S&P BIOTECHNOLOGY STOCK PRICE INDEX* (ABBV ALXN AMGN BIIB CELG GILD REGN VRTX) 47 47 367 277 187 187 97 97 7 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 7 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 7 Figure 14. S&P PHARMACEUTICALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Pharmaceuticals Index 1/4/17 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /16 x18 8 7 6 6 x13 4 4 3 x8 3 2 2 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 742 642 Figure. S&P BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Biotechnology Index 1/4/17 x24 742 642 42 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /16 42 x17 442 442 342 342 x 242 242 142 142 42 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 42 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 8 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
99 84 Figure 16. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS STOCK PRICE INDEX* (ABC CAH HSIC MCK PDCO) 99 84 69 4 69 4 39 39 24 24 9 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 9 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. 6 Figure 17. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 6 4 3 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 16 4 3 2 2 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 9 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
4 Figure 18. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 4 3 3 - - -3 Dec -3-4 -6 NERI Oct -14.1 Nov -29. Dec -34.4 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18-4 -6 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 19. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 8 Health Care Distributors Index 1/4/17 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /16 x 8 7 x 7 x 4 4 2 2 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
48 4 33 Figure. S&P HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY STOCK PRICE INDEX* (CERN) 48 4 33 2 18 2 18 3 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 3 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. Figure 21. S&P HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 47 Health Care Technology Index 1/4/17 x2 47 4 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /16 4 x 32 32 2 x 2 17 17 2 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 2 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 11 / January, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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