Analyst Meet Presentation Standalone Financial Results, Quarter Ended 30 Sep 2011
Agenda Business Environment Key Developments Performance Overview Projects Update Guidance Update 2
Global economy Recovery in advanced economies has been slower than expected Tighter bank lending, increased fiscal and financial uncertainty and moderation in demand is affecting the recovery Concerns remains over Euro area sovereign debt problems, lowering risk appetite However Euro Area industrial production growth was at 5.3% YoY in Aug 2011 compared to 4.4% in July 2011. Global economy is expected to grow by ~4% in 2011 3
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 113.4 107.1 120.9 120.5 124.6 118.3 114.4 113.1 112.3 117.4 114.6 116.2 128.0 118.4 129.8 126.7 130.0 127.7 127.2 124.2 123.7 Global steel scenario 130 120 World crude steel production (million tonnes) Capacity Utilisation (%) 85% 80% World crude steel production was ~759 Mn tonnes, up by 8% YoY, during Apr Sep 2011 110 75% Supply has corrected by ~50 Mn tonnes on an annualized basis in Sep 2011 from its peak 100 70% Capacity utilization has fallen below 80% 90 65% European and US steel producers have announced moderation/shutdowns in the light of weaker demand US service centers inventories ('000 tonnes) 8,400 7,200 6,000 4,800 3,600 2,400 1,200 0 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 Japan sheet mills inventories ('000 tonnes) 4,200 2.4 3,500 2.0 2,800 1.6 2,100 1.2 1,400 0.8 700 0.4 0 0.0 Germany stockists inventories ('000 tonnes) 1800 4.8 1500 4.0 1200 3.2 900 2.4 600 1.6 300 0.8 0 0.0 Inventory Months supply (3MMA) Inventory Months supply (3MMA) Inventory Months supply (3MMA) Moderation in production and relatively low inventories Source: World Steel, CRU, JSW Steel 4
Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 HRC prices INR/USD Steel prices HRC price spread of US domestic and Europe import vs. Asian export has narrowed Steel prices in Asia were stable during 2QFY12 However long steel prices were resilient INR vs USD has depreciated by 9.4% in 2QFY12 1300 1100 900 700 N.America domestic FOB US Midwest mill Europe import CIF S.European port Russia Black Sea export FOB China export FOB Shanghai 52 50 48 46 44 500 42 300 40 INR depreciation is cushioning the drop in realisation in INR term Source: SBB, JSW Steel (All figures are in USD/tonne) 5
Operationg cost including overheads ($ per tonne) World HRB cost curve Cummulative capacity (million tonnes) Sep 2011 cost curve indicates limited downside to steel prices Source: World Steel Dynamics, JSW Steel 6
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Raw material prices are softening Coking coal prices declined in 2QFY12 compared to 1QFY12 Coking coal pricing mechanism shifted from annual to quarterly basis in FY10 but since beginning of 2011 many coal contracts are being entered into on a quarterly and monthly basis 450 360 270 180 90 0 Coking Coal Contract FOB Australian Spot HCC FOB HCC spot prices have come down to ~$250/t, SHCC prices have softened faster Coking coal prices are showing further downward bias Iron ore spot prices averaged at ~$184/t in 2QFY12 (1QFY12: $181/t, 2QFY11: $143/t) 200 150 100 50 Iron Ore Contract (Australia 62-62.5% Fe dry -China CFR) Indian Iron Ore 63% Fe dry -China CFR Iron ore spot price have softened to ~$160/t in Oct 2011 0 Falling raw material prices and INR depreciation keep the margins stable Source: SBB, Platts, JSW Steel (All figures are in USD/tonne) 7
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.5 4.3 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 5.7 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 52.85 50.51 48.03 47.39 49.17 44.94 47.27 48.67 48.37 55.11 47.41 54.89 56.34 55.79 55.46 54.74 54.16 51.50 China: remains stable Steel consuming sectors like auto, shipbuilding and consumer goods growth has slowed down in CY2011 In spite of this apparent steel consumption has grown by ~6 Mn tonnes per month during Apr Sep 2011 However Chinese steel market is still stable compared to World -ex China as - 60 50 40 30 20 53.74 Apparent Steel Consumption Finished Steel Production 58.07 57.26 55.00 Fixed assets investment in the urban areas grew by 24.9% during Jan -Sep 2011 Investment in real estate development in urban areas grew by 32% during Jan -Sep 2011 Steel demand in this decade will be driven by urbanization process in western and central china 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Exports Inventories in the warehouses of 25 major cities(rhs) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Source: Mysteel, World Steel Association, JSW Steel (All figures are in Mn tonnes) 8
India: lag in demand, import replacement Crude steel production was 35.11 Mn tonnes in 1HFY12 vs. 34.43 Mn tonnes in 1HFY11 (+2% YoY) whereas finished steel production* was 32.75 Mn tonnes in 1HFY12 vs. 30.04 Mn tonnes in 1HFY11 (+9% YoY) Apparent finished steel consumption* was 33.70 Mn tonnes in 1HFY12 vs. 33.10 Mn tonnes (+ 1.8% YoY) However steel prices have remained stable During 1HFY12, steel imports fell to 2.86 Mn tonnes (-1.63 Mn tonnes YoY) whereas exports grew to 2.15 Mn tonnes (+0.68 Mn tonnes YoY) Indian steel demand impacted less by global cycle but more by temporary domestic issues Lower Industrial output (Aug 2011: 4.1%), falling purchasing managers index (Sep 2011: 50.4) indicates easing growth momentum, higher interest rates affecting the economy, Headline inflation remains high (Sep 2011: 9.72%) IMF has lowered CY11 GDP growth forecast by 0.4% to 7.8% *Netted off for double counting effect 9
Key Developments 10
Iron Ore update The Honourable Supreme Court has suspended iron ore mining and transportation in Karnataka with a view to stop illegal mining and consequent environmental degradation However in order to provide relief to the domestic steel industry the Court: Permitted auction of 1.5 Mn tonnes per month (out of 25 Mn tonnes stockpiles) Directed NMDC to mine 1 Mn tonne per month Banned sale of iron ore for exports and trading purposes Total 4.59 Mn tonnes of iron ore put for bidding in 6 e-auctions Total 3.41 Mn tonnes of iron ore sold in the auctions (74% of the material put for bidding), 1.19 Mn tonnes of iron ore was unsold inspite of acute shortage The company secured 2.08 Mn tonnes in e- auctions Issues relating to iron ore auction that need to be addressed include: Pricing Logistics and procedural delays 11
Key developments New Blast furnace Commissioned the new blast furnace in July 20, 2011 Quickly ramped the blast furnace, achieved ~80% utilization level in just 2 months New product approvals 160mm dia Bar for Tata Motors Steel for Front Axle Beam for Volvo- Eicher Motors Steel for Bull Gears for Mahindra & Mahindra Tractors JV with Marubeni -Itochu 50:50 Joint venture agreements to set-up a state of-the -art steel processing center in North India Total capital cost will be `122 Crores First phase to come on stream by March 2013 with an installed capacity of 180,000 tonnes per annum 12
Performance Review 13
Production 2QFY12 11% 3% YoY % QoQ % 1.738 1.684 2% 10% YoY % QoQ % 1.271 1.299 1.186 1.571 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Rolled : Flat 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 0.264 30% 1% YoY % QoQ % 0.345 0.343 Crude Steel All figures are in Mn tonnes 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Rolled : Long 14
Production 1HFY12 5% 9% YoY % 2.364 YoY % 2.485 3.423 3.144 1HFY11 1HFY12 Rolled : Flat 20% 0.573 YoY % 0.687 1HFY11 1HFY12 All figures are in Mn tonnes Crude Steel 1HFY11 Rolled : Long 1HFY12 15
Saleable steel sales 2QFY12 1.583 21% 14% 19% 10% YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % 1.882 1.714 1.215 1.467 1.283 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Rolled : Flat -8% 4% YoY % QoQ % 0.451 0.416 0.401 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Value Added 20% 16% YoY % QoQ % 0.338 0.281 0.292-11% YoY % -45% QoQ % 0.139 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Total Sales All figures are in Mn tonnes 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Rolled : Long 0.086 0.076 2QFY11 2QFY12 1QFY12 Semis 16
Saleable Steel Sales 1HFY12 30% YoY % 33% YoY % 2% YoY % 3.596 2.074 2.750 0.797 0.817 2.774 1HFY11 1HFY12 1HFY11 1HFY12 Rolled : Flat 24% YoY % 0.630 0.506 Value Added 12% YoY % 0.215 0.193 1HFY11 1HFY12 Total Sales All figures are in Mn tonnes 1HFY11 Rolled : Long 1HFY12 1HFY11 1HFY12 Semis 17
JSW Shoppe No. of JSW Shoppe 295 315 % Share through JSW Shoppe 2QFY12 37% Value Added: Flat 30 June 2011 30 Sep 2011 Sales through JSW Shoppe (In 000 tonnes) 16% 372 322 1.127 75% Domestic sales excluding semis (Mn tonnes, % Share) 0.372 25% 18% 43% 45% Rolled: Long Rolled: HR Products Others JSW Shoppe 2QFY11 2QFY12 The company has expanded its retail footprint to 150 districts 18
Financials 2QFY12 (standalone) ` Crores Particulars 2QFY12 2QFY11 Growth 1HFY12 1HFY11 Growth Gross Sales 8,243 6,184 33% 15,869 11,229 41% Net Sales 7,625 5,713 33% 14,690 10,360 42% EBITDA 1,333 1,156 15% 2,744 2,190 25% EBITDA Margin 17.5% 20.0% 18.7% 20.9% Net Finance Charges 234 199 18% 431 410 5% Depreciation 404 332 21% 792 650 22% Exceptional Items 513-513 - Profit Before Tax 182 624-71% 1,008 1,130-11% Profit after Tax 127 445-71% 705 796-11% 19
EBITDA movement standalone ` Crores 823 1,156 176 (607) (27) (59) (129) 1,333 EBITDA 2QFY11 Volume NSR Cost Mix Others FX impact EBITDA 2QFY12 20
Net debt movement standalone 2,132 523 ` Crores 11,323 (775) (1,097) 12,106 Net Total Debt as on Jun'11 New Loan Taken Repayments Forex Loss Movement in FD / MF Net Total Debt as on Sep'11 Cash & cash equivalent ` 1,852 Crores 21
Financial ratios standalone Particulars 2QFY12 2QFY11 EBITDA Margin 17.5% 20.0% PAT Margin 1.7% 7.7% Diluted EPS (`) 5.33* 23.13* ROCE 11.1% 12.1% * Not Annualized Particulars 30.09.2011 30.06.2011 Net Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.68 0.64 Net Total Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.24 2.20 22
Projects Update LCP^ Beneficiation Plant (Phase 2)* Coal Briquetting* Cold Rolling Mill -2 (Phase 1)* ^ Commissioned in Oct 2011 * Work under progress 23
Guidance update Crude Steel Production Saleable Steel Sales 6.43 8.75 7.50 6.10 9.00 7.80 FY11 FY12 E FY12 E (revised) FY11 FY12 E FY12 E (revised) 24
Forward looking and cautionary statement Certain statements in this report concerning our future growth prospects are forward looking statements, which involve a number of risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward looking statements. The risk and uncertainties relating to these statements include, but are not limited to risks and uncertainties regarding fluctuations in earnings, our ability to manage growth, intense competition within Steel industry including those factors which may affect our cost advantage, wage increases in India, our ability to attract and retain highly skilled professionals, time and cost overruns on fixed-price, fixed-time frame contracts, our ability to commission mines within contemplated time and costs, our ability to raise the finance within time and cost client concentration, restrictions on immigration, our ability to manage our internal operations, reduced demand for steel, our ability to successfully complete and integrate potential acquisitions, liability for damages on our service contracts, the success of the companies in which the Company has made strategic investments, withdrawal of fiscal/governmental incentives, impact of regulatory measures, political instability, legal restrictions on raising capital or acquiring companies outside India, unauthorized use of our intellectual property and general economic conditions affecting our industry. The company does not undertake to update any forward looking statements that may be made from time to time by or on behalf of the company. 25
Thank you 26