Sensex (35322) / Nifty (10736) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Yesterday, our markets kicked off the session with a decent upside gap as HDFC Bank attracted massive buying interest from investors ahead of opening of FIIs trading window. However, the stock cooled off a bit in the initial trade and as a result, the Nifty also gave up all early morning lead. This was followed by a long consolidation with a positive bias. But, abruptly, what we witnessed in the concluding hour was truly a rare sight. There was complete gush in the HDFC bank and in fact, in the entire banking basket, which pushed the Nifty towards the 10750 mark before even anyone could realize it. Eventually, index concluded the May series with a bang well above 10700. Yesterday, index was very much in the comfort zone before the last hour rush. Honestly speaking, it was quite surprising to many participants including us. Yes, index is now precisely trading around the higher band of our mentioned range i.e. 10740. In general scenario, we would have certainly stuck to our stance but the kind of development happened towards the fag end, we would require a day or two to form a concrete opinion. Hence, going ahead, we would be quite watchful how market behaves in the zone of 10740 10780. On the lower side, 10700 followed by 10660 would be seen as immediate supports. Traders are advisable to take a note of above mentioned scenarios and should focus on individual stocks. Key Levels Support 1 10700 Resistance 1 10740 Support 2 10660 Resistance 2 10780 Nifty Bank Outlook - (26956) The Nifty Bank index opened higher with a gap of more than 250 points in yesterday's session. Post opening around the resistance of 26600, the index corrected in the opening tick itself and filled the intraday gap. The index then gradually picked up the momentum and rallied higher as the day progressed. In fact, the index spiked post 2.30 pm to end the day with whopping gains of more than 600 points. There were two factors which led to the surprise move seen in the index yesterday. One was the expiry effect, which came into play post 2.30; and other the index heavyweight HDFC Bank which rallied 5% on the back of news that FII's may buy shares of the company worth $1 billion on June 1st. Owing to yesterday's rally, the index has surpassed its previous high resistance and has continued the 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' structure. Since there was also an F&O expiry effect in last hour of the trade, a follow-up move is now required for confirmation of the resumption of the uptrend. The intraday resistance for the index is seen around 27200, which if crossed could then lead the index towards the previous all-time high in near term. On the flipside, 26600-26700 range would now act as a crucial support. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 26700 Resistance 1 27100 Support 2 26600 Resistance 2 27200
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 30.36% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 5.19% as market closed at 10736.15 levels. The Nifty May future closed with a discount of 34.00 points against a premium of 0.10 points in last trading session. The June series closed at a discount of 24.20 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 13.41 to 13.22. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.39 to 1.58 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are HCC, IDFCBANK, SUZLON, IDBI and ADANIPOWER. Nifty Vs Views FIIs activity in cash market segment remained subdued. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 643 crores in index futures with meaningful decline in open interest, due to the expiry. In index options front, they bought of Rs. 1285 crores with fall in open interest. In call options, 10700-10900 added fresh positions. On the flip side, we saw massive build-up in 10400-10700 put options. Maximum concentration for the June series is firmly placed at 11000 call; whereas, in put options is seen in 10600 followed by 10400 strike. We concluded May series with small gains and well above 10700 mark. Rollovers for Nifty stood at 62.62%, which is below its three month average of 68%. We believe majority of the shorts formed in last series were liquidated seeing the strong recovery from the 10550 mark. Stronger hands rolled some of their shorts in index futures segment, resulting Long Short Ratio declining from 54% to 44% series on series. However, in stock futures segment they preferred rolling good amount of long positions. At current junctures, 10600-10900 shall be the trading range for the new series. Gainers VGUARD 3141000 24.35 220.80-8.09 AMBUJACEM 16287500 4.74 205.40-0.34 BIOCON 9296100 3.50 665.40-1.30 ARVIND 7554000 1.53 388.15-0.15 DIVISLAB 3221600 1.38 1047.45-0.21 Losers OFSS 72750-49.32 3942.90 3.72 TORNTPOWER 2625000-46.22 262.30 0.28 JUSTDIAL 2002000-42.73 585.65 0.54 NIITTECH 1236000-36.88 1117.10 2.72 BPCL 7767000-36.05 403.95 1.39 SRF 418000-36.04 1932.20 1.70 ADANIPORTS 12705000-34.88 392.15 5.09 CONCOR 1444375-33.61 1379.05-1.14 Historical Volatility HV CGPOWER 113.42 HDFCBANK 30.03 TORNTPHARM 37.05 ADANIPORTS 34.11 INDUSINDBK 28.55 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.58 1.05 BANKNIFTY 1.04 0.72 TATAMOTORS 0.34 0.53 RELIANCE 0.61 0.47 ICICIBANK 0.45 0.73
FII Statistics for May 31, 2018 Turnover on May 31, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 6268.78 6911.84 (643.06) 168794 14342.65 (50.61) 131500.42 130215.61 1284.80 597202 50044.53 (35.43) 33729.96 32522.24 1207.72 1107330 76692.04 (13.91) 5466.91 5366.37 100.54 5451 416.87 (96.26) Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 523513 47286.80 20.83 16024552 1568881.49 36.80 2323957 154101.72 33.22 898566 64668.47 12.59 Total 176966.07 175016.06 1950.01 1878777 141496.10 (30.38) TOTAL 19770588 1834938.48 35.01 Nifty Spot = 10614.35 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10700 133.70 Sell 10800 84.85 48.85 51.15 10748.85 Buy 10700 136.30 Sell 10600 100.65 35.65 64.35 10664.35 Buy 10700 133.70 Sell 10900 49.35 84.35 115.65 10784.35 Buy 10700 136.30 Sell 10500 72.65 63.65 136.35 10636.35 Buy 10800 84.85 Sell 10900 49.35 35.50 64.50 10835.50 Buy 10600 100.65 Sell 10500 72.65 28.00 72.00 10572.00 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 358 375 386 403 415 ASIANPAINT 1,276 1,291 1,301 1,315 1,326 AXISBANK 524 535 543 554 563 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,706 2,728 2,756 2,779 2,807 BAJFINANCE 2,075 2,092 2,119 2,136 2,163 BAJAJFINSV 5,817 5,930 6,043 6,156 6,269 BPCL 387 395 402 410 416 BHARTIARTL 364 369 376 381 388 INFRATEL 288 293 299 304 309 CIPLA 514 519 527 532 539 COALINDIA 283 290 297 303 310 DRREDDY 1,899 1,918 1,945 1,964 1,991 EICHERMOT 29,497 30,139 30,819 31,461 32,141 GAIL 339 345 349 355 359 GRASIM 990 1,015 1,054 1,079 1,119 HCLTECH 895 903 909 916 922 HDFCBANK 2,046 2,093 2,126 2,173 2,206 HDFC 1,782 1,807 1,823 1,849 1,864 HEROMOTOCO 3,479 3,512 3,563 3,596 3,647 HINDALCO 229 232 236 238 243 HINDPETRO 295 304 308 317 321 HINDUNILVR 1,565 1,588 1,603 1,626 1,641 IBULHSGFIN 1,203 1,223 1,240 1,260 1,278 ICICIBANK 275 280 285 290 294 IOC 166 170 173 177 180 INDUSINDBK 1,813 1,884 1,940 2,011 2,066 INFY 1,196 1,214 1,228 1,246 1,260 ITC 268 270 271 273 274 KOTAKBANK 1,247 1,291 1,345 1,389 1,444 LT 1,347 1,358 1,368 1,380 1,389 LUPIN 754 762 774 782 793 M&M 873 898 916 941 958 MARUTI 8,441 8,489 8,564 8,612 8,687 NTPC 161 164 167 171 174 ONGC 172 175 178 180 183 POWERGRID 197 203 208 214 219 RELIANCE 912 917 919 924 927 SBIN 258 264 269 275 281 SUNPHARMA 460 470 483 493 506 TCS 1,709 1,725 1,742 1,758 1,775 TATAMOTORS 276 279 285 288 294 TATASTEEL 563 569 578 585 594 TECHM 669 691 704 726 740 TITAN 871 886 905 919 939 ULTRACEMCO 3,654 3,699 3,732 3,778 3,810 UPL 697 702 709 714 721 VEDANTA 243 245 249 252 256 WIPRO 255 258 261 265 268 YESBANK 333 340 345 351 356 ZEEL 545 551 558 563 571
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