BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX 2018 TARGET WEIGHTS
2018 SUMMARY 26 commodity contracts tested for inclusion No constituent changes (22 commodities constituents / 20 commodities) Energy reaches lowest weight in 17 years Gold remains largest single constituent Corn has largest weight drop 2
STEPS TO COMPUTE 2018 TARGET WEIGHTS Calculate ICIP Scores and Filter Commodities with Low ICIP Scores Apply Sector and Group Limits Target Weights 26 Commodities Brent Crude, Crude Oil, Gold, RBOB Gasoline, ULS Diesel (HO), Natural Gas, Soybeans, Copper, Corn, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Silver, Wheat (Chicago), Aluminum, Sugar, Soy Meal, Soybean Oil, Zinc, Nickel, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat (KC HRW),Lead, Cocoa, Platinum, Tin FIA Volume Data Lead Contract Prices Liquidity Percentages + World Production Data Lead Contract Prices Production Percentages Interim Commodity Index Percentiles (ICIP) (2/3 rd Liquidity and 1/3 rd Production) 22 Pass the 0.4% ICIP Threshold Brent Crude, Crude Oil, Gold, RBOB Gasoline, ULS Diesel (HO), Natural Gas, Soybeans, Copper, Corn, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Silver, Wheat (Chicago), Aluminum, Sugar, Soy Meal, Soybean Oil, Zinc, Nickel, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat (KC HRW) 4 Fail the 0.4% ICIP Threshold and are excluded Lead, Cocoa, Platinum, Tin Set Single commodity and its derivative to a max of 25% Set single commodity max limit of 15% Limit related commodity groups weights to a max of 33% Increase any Sector ICIP under 2% to 2% Set Gold & Silver Weights to equal their CLP Adjust for the Commodity Liquidity Threshold Commodity Target Weight Natural Gas 8.01% Brent Crude Oil 7.68% WTI Crude Oil 7.31% RBOB Gasoline 3.75% ULS Diesel 3.66% Corn 6.13% Soybeans 5.95% Wheat 3.25% Soybean Meal 3.03% Soybean Oil 2.74% HRW Wheat 1.30% Copper 7.15% Aluminum 4.50% Zinc 3.09% Nickel 2.76% Gold 11.94% Silver 3.67% Sugar 3.53% Coffee 2.60% Cotton 1.45% Live Cattle 4.31% Lean Hogs 2.07%
2018 BCOM TARGET WEIGHTS Energy Grains Industrial Metals Precious Metals Softs Livestock Target Weight Natural Gas 8.01% Brent Crude Oil 7.68% WTI Crude Oil 7.31% RBOB Gasoline 3.75% ULS Diesel 3.66% Corn 6.13% Soybeans 5.95% Wheat 3.25% Soybean Meal 3.03% Soybean Oil 2.74% HRW Wheat 1.30% Copper 7.15% Aluminum 4.50% Zinc 3.09% Nickel 2.76% Gold 11.94% Silver 3.67% Sugar 3.53% Coffee 2.60% Cotton 1.45% Live Cattle 4.31% Lean Hogs 2.07% 30.43% 22.44% 17.53% 15.62% 7.60% 6.39% 4
2017-2018 TARGET WEIGHT % CHANGES 2017 CIP 2018 CIP 14% 12% 6.93% 10% 8% 1.97% -1.81% 1.97% -17.22% -5.69% 6% 4% 2% -0.37% -4.29% 2.07% 4.62% -1.76% -2.11% 10.26% -1.30% 15.18% 8.69% 8.41% -0.86% -10.75% 4.08% 9.57% 0.41% 0% ENERGY (-0.14%) GRAINS (-1.02%) INDUSTRIAL (0.14%) LIVESTOCK (0.32%) PRECIOUS (0.32%) SOFTS (0.38%) 5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 HISTORICAL GROUP WEIGHTS (1999-2018) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Energy 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Industrial Metals 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Precious Metals WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil ULS Diesel RBOB Gasoline Natural Gas Copper (HG) Aluminum Nickel Zinc Gold Silver 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Grains 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Softs 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Livestock Soybean Oil Soybean Soybean Meal Corn Chicago Wheat Kansas City Wheat Cocoa Cotton Coffee Sugar Live Cattle Lean Hogs 6
HISTORICAL GROUP WEIGHTS (1999-2018) 35% 30% Energy 25% 20% 15% Industrial Metals Grains 10% Softs 5% 0% Livestock 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7
HISTORICAL SECTOR WEIGHTS (1999-2018) 45% 40% Agriculture 35% Energy 30% Metals 25% 20% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8
LIQUIDITY & PRODUCTION PERCENTAGES Commodity Commodity Liquidity Percentage Commodity Production Percentage Interim Commodity Index Percentage (B) Filter by 0.4% Threshold Test Brent Crude 23.37077798% 25.33777872% 24.02644489% PASS Crude Oil 22.27045652% 24.14484874% 22.89525393% PASS Gold 10.94037089% 2.68672083% 8.18915420% PASS RBOB Gasoline 5.93130200% 6.43050983% 6.09770461% PASS ULS Diesel (HO) 5.73525197% 6.21795926% 5.89615440% PASS Natural Gas 4.94683275% 2.78466946% 4.22611166% PASS Soybeans 5.14528891% 1.78950045% 4.02669275% PASS Copper 3.42998975% 3.25210133% 3.37069361% PASS Corn 2.91981509% 4.21622529% 3.35195182% PASS Live Cattle 1.23185916% 5.95881650% 2.80751161% PASS Lean Hogs 0.59315328% 4.57573075% 1.92067910% PASS Silver 2.66746856% 0.42565970% 1.92019894% PASS Wheat (Chicago) 1.39876237% 2.80553823% 1.86768766% PASS Aluminum 1.54795244% 2.08277700% 1.72622729% PASS Sugar 1.01046435% 1.59789564% 1.20627478% PASS Soy Meal 1.40882118% 0.48997951% 1.10254062% PASS Soybean Oil 1.04155400% 0.36224620% 0.81511807% PASS Zinc 0.88503773% 0.57266883% 0.78091476% PASS Nickel 0.78904242% 0.66145815% 0.74651433% PASS Coffee 0.74429684% 0.71944600% 0.73601322% PASS Cotton 0.41534591% 1.06649587% 0.63239590% PASS Wheat (KC HRW) 0.37281542% 0.74776669% 0.49779917% PASS Lead 0.35769022% 0.46838205% 0.39458750% ELIMINATE Cocoa 0.36885026% 0.25507788% 0.33092613% ELIMINATE Platinum 0.37775304% 0.18659870% 0.31403493% ELIMINATE Tin 0.09904696% 0.16314837% 0.12041410% ELIMINATE 9
YEAR OVER YEAR TARGET WEIGHT COMPARISON Bloomberg Ticker 2017 CIP 2018 CIP YoY % Change Zinc LX 2.6893410% 3.0976320% 15.18% Wheat (KC HRW) KW 1.1834590% 1.3048540% 10.26% Coffee KC 2.3774300% 2.6050390% 9.57% Nickel LN 2.5409170% 2.7616480% 8.66% Live Cattle LC 3.9771090% 4.3115070% 8.40% Gold GC 11.1715570% 11.9458820% 6.93% Soy Meal SM 2.9015200% 3.0355430% 4.62% Sugar SB 3.3978760% 3.5366250% 4.08% Soybeans S 5.8387700% 5.9596950% 2.07% Crude Oil CL 7.1781390% 7.3193290% 1.97% Natural Gas NG 7.9765050% 8.0140970% 0.47% Cotton CT 1.4478190% 1.4537110% 0.41% RBOB Gasoline XB 3.7645450% 3.7506600% -0.37% Lean Hogs LH 2.0941230% 2.0760360% -0.86% Aluminum LA 4.5682530% 4.5087010% -1.30% Wheat (Chicago) W 3.3174200% 3.2589240% -1.76% Brent Crude CO 7.8218610% 7.6806710% -1.80% Soybean Oil BO 2.8074440% 2.7481210% -2.11% ULS Diesel (HO) HO 3.8295210% 3.6652400% -4.29% Copper HG 7.5907620% 7.1586790% -5.69% Silver SI 4.1152560% 3.6729800% -10.75% Corn C 7.4103730% 6.1344250% -17.21% 10
FIA VOLUME DATA Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Change 2015-2016 Wheat (KC HRW) 5,524,694 5,573,776 6,702,061 8,554,850 11,724,522 37.05% Silver 14,205,014 13,762,940 13,478,008 15,909,264 20,852,803 31.07% Natural Gas 88,511,266 76,091,668 79,436,041 86,182,057 105,913,138 22.89% Crude Oil 143,254,254 136,980,084 180,811,113 242,504,173 296,643,163 22.32% Gold 47,102,033 39,854,694 42,935,014 50,897,089 61,189,546 20.22% Lean Hogs 11,262,642 11,262,642 10,359,707 8,695,761 10,364,029 19.18% Live Cattle 13,138,069 13,138,069 12,225,270 13,295,761 15,607,886 17.39% Platinum 3,295,753 3,086,177 3,400,401 3,837,044 4,454,155 16.08% Brent Crude 153,358,199 154,909,534 179,084,449 198,223,611 230,085,976 16.07% RBOB Gasoline 35,783,854 32,756,800 38,641,276 42,531,265 48,438,670 13.89% Cocoa 6,520,572 6,302,342 6,939,220 9,285,990 10,447,548 12.51% ULS Diesel (HO) 35,100,529 31,406,733 36,392,272 38,496,379 41,118,037 6.81% Wheat (Chicago) 25,706,206 24,946,566 29,296,099 31,101,352 32,848,308 5.62% Zinc 10,131,889 10,288,642 9,773,205 9,006,891 9,226,461 2.44% Cotton 6,238,985 5,646,406 6,442,278 7,448,905 7,612,476 2.20% Soybean Oil 25,740,648 22,994,772 26,432,802 29,476,283 29,770,226 1.00% Coffee 7,000,207 6,997,195 7,318,193 9,374,943 9,263,226-1.19% Nickel 4,184,284 5,635,819 6,311,085 6,705,340 6,579,559-1.88% Corn 63,734,064 67,621,436 78,591,373 87,335,044 85,358,965-2.26% Soy Meal 18,778,391 19,589,688 23,292,170 26,601,121 24,810,514-6.73% Aluminum 21,030,581 21,391,002 20,809,585 18,557,538 17,022,664-8.27% Copper 12,838,800 12,868,534 13,217,166 12,431,650 11,385,014-8.42% Tin 675,263 732,578 550,835 466,106 423,492-9.14% Lead 4,560,392 4,441,760 4,246,966 3,676,761 3,330,633-9.41% Sugar 28,079,048 30,573,425 31,333,154 34,917,081 31,135,413-10.83% Soybeans 46,386,935 47,518,704 53,581,666 62,495,645 53,446,445-14.48% 11
AVERAGE LEAD FUTURES CONTRACT PRICE Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Change 2015-2016* Zinc $ 1,964.90 $ 1,980.13 $ 2,211.69 $ 1,797.42 $ 2,595.90 44.42% Natural Gas $ 3.59 $ 4.17 $ 3.27 $ 2.38 $ 3.08 29.61% Tin $ 21,533.83 $ 22,502.83 $ 18,595 $ 15,769.92 $ 20,015.58 26.92% Sugar $ 0.19 $ 0.17 $ 0.14 $ 0.15 $ 0.19 26.04% Lead $ 2,171.25 $ 2,113.10 $ 1,980.50 $ 1,732.25 $ 2,152.85 24.28% Cotton $ 0.79 $ 0.84 $ 0.63 $ 0.62 $ 0.73 17.34% Silver $ 28.83 $ 20.50 $ 17.05 $ 15.36 $ 17.83 16.11% Coffee $ 1.49 $ 1.44 $ 1.64 $ 1.23 $ 1.43 15.88% Aluminum $ 1,968.98 $ 1,784.05 $ 1,894.06 $ 1,559.63 $ 1,793.79 15.01% Crude Oil $ 92.98 $ 100.71 $ 67.56 $ 42.62 $ 48.95 14.85% Brent Crude $ 107.87 $ 108.34 $ 74.16 $ 45.04 $ 51.40 14.12% Copper $ 7,680.08 $ 7,053.51 $ 6,320.29 $ 4,839.61 $ 5,478.49 13.20% ULS Diesel (HO) $ 3 $ 2.99 $ 2.16 $ 1.37 $ 1.54 12.76% Soybean Oil $ 0.51 $ 0.41 $ 0.33 $ 0.30 $ 0.33 9.74% Nickel $ 16,447.67 $ 15,386.38 $ 15,029.25 $ 9,281.04 $ 10,094.48 8.76% RBOB Gasoline $ 2.85 $ 2.81 $ 2.04 $ 1.42 $ 1.53 7.82% Gold $ 1,597.47 $ 1,292.82 $ 1,214.60 $ 1,170.78 $ 1,255.49 7.24% Soybeans $ 14.85 $ 13.32 $ 9.95 $ 9.37 $ 9.82 4.78% Platinum $ 1,551.58 $ 1,435.56 $ 1,229.69 $ 954.70 $ 984.91 3.16% Soy Meal $ 442.15 $ 428.03 $ 333.94 $ 311.22 $ 316.84 1.81% Corn $ 7.07 $ 4.56 $ 3.73 $ 3.73 $ 3.58-3.92% Wheat (KC HRW) $ 8.20 $ 7.09 $ 5.78 $ 4.68 $ 4.37-6.66% Lean Hogs $ 0.85 $ 1.02 $ 0.84 $ 0.70 $ 0.65-7.46% Wheat (Chicago) $ 7.81 $ 6.41 $ 5.31 $ 4.78 $ 4.31-9.76% Live Cattle $ 1.26 $ 1.36 $ 1.57 $ 1.31 $ 1.13-13.82% Cocoa $ 2,324.25 $ 2,778.17 $ 2,988.33 $ 3,092.33 $ 2,315.92-25.11% 12 * Calculated using the settlement price on the first business day of each month
WORLD PRODUCTION DATA Commodity Reporting Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Change 2013-2014 Tin Metric Tons 340,000 344,000 338,000 336,000 392,000 16.67% Soybeans Thous. Met Tons 264,959 261,624 241,732.26 277,679 306,519 10.39% Copper Thous. Met Tons 19,100 19,700 20,200 21,000 22,200 5.71% Cotton Thous. Met Tons 23,591 26,355 26,932.45 24,804 26,157 5.45% Aluminum Thous. Met Tons 41,800 46,800 49,200 51,900 54,000 4.05% Silver Metric Tons 23,300 23,200 24,400 25,800 26,800 3.88% Zinc Thous. Met Tons 12,800 13,100 12,600 13,000 13,500 3.85% Gold Kilograms 2,600,000 2,670,000 2,750,000 2,920,000 3,010,000 3.08% Crude Petroleum Thous. Barrels 32,222,187 32,411,761 33,135,033 33,322,204 34,241,545 2.76% Wheat Thous. Met Tons 641,909 697,498 672,738 710,957 729,012 2.54% Corn Thous. Met Tons 851,300 886,921 873,151 1,014,274 1,037,792 2.32% Natural Gas Billion Cubic Feet 34,187 35,696 36,168 36,706 37,479 2.11% Pork Thous. Met Tons 107,443 108,010 111,492 113,289 115,314 1.79% Sugar Thous. Met Tons 162,221 172,349 177,843 175,886 177,419 0.87% Beef & Fresh Veal Thous. Met Tons 63,103 62,673 63,250 64,286 64,681 0.61% Nickel Metric Tons 1,470,000 1,630,000 1,800,000 2,010,000 2,010,000 0.00% Lead Thous. Met Tons 9,610 10,300 10,500 10,600 10,600 0.00% Cocoa Thous. Met Tons 4,329 4,615 4,615 4,488 4,450-0.85% Coffee Thous. Met Tons 8,484 8,397 8,823 8,891 8,790-1.14% Platinum Kilograms 193,000 202,000 181,000 185,000 146,000-21.08% 13
WORLD PRODUCTION DATA SOURCES Commodity Source Table Natural Gas U.S. EIA Annual Statistical Supplement Gross Natural Gas Production Crude Oil U.S. EIA Annual Statistical Supplement World Crude Oil Production Live Cattle FAOSTAT Cattle Meat Lean Hogs FAOSTAT Pig Meat Wheat FAOSTAT Wheat Production Corn FAOSTAT Maize Soybeans FAOSTAT Soybeans Aluminum Minerals Yearbook Aluminum Primary World Production Copper Minerals Yearbook Copper, World Refinery Production Zinc Minerals Yearbook Zinc World Smelter Production Nickel Minerals Yearbook Nickel World Plant Production Lead Minerals Yearbook Lead World Refinery Production Tin Minerals Yearbook Tin World Smelter Production Gold Minerals Yearbook World Mine Production Silver Minerals Yearbook World Mine Production Platinum Minerals Yearbook Platinum-Group Metals, World Production Sugar USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook World Production, Supply, and Distribution, Centrifugal Sugar Cotton FAOSTAT Cotton Lint Coffee FAOSTAT Coffee, Green Cocoa FAOSTAT Cocoa Beans 14
COMMODITY CONVERSION FACTORS Commodity Production Units Production Size Factor Contract Terms Conversion Factor Natural Gas Cubic Feet 35,464 1 10000 mmbtu 1,000,000 Crude Petroleum Barrels 31,782,935 1000 1000 bbl 1 Beef & Fresh Veal Thous. Met Tons 63,188 1000 40000 lbs 3,486.43 Pork Thous. Met Tons 107,417 1000 40000 lbs 2,204.62 Wheat Thous. Met Tons 651,907 1000 5000 bu 36.7437 Corn Thous. Met Tons 849,792 1000 5000 bu 39.3683 Soybeans Thous. Met Tons 265,050 1000 5000 bu 36.7437 Aluminum Thous. Met Tons 40,800 1000 25 mtons 1 Copper Thous. Met Tons 19,100 1000 25000 lbs 1 Zinc Thous. Met Tons 12,700 1000 25 mtons 1 Nickel Metric Tons 1,470,000 1 6 mtons 1 Lead Thous. Met Tons 9,490 1000 25 mtons 1 Tin Metric Tons 350,000 1 5 mtons 1 Gold Kilograms 2,560,000 1 100 oz 32.1508 Silver Metric Tons 23,100 1 5000 oz 32,150.75 Platinum Kilograms 192,000 1 50 oz 32.1508 Sugar Thous. Met Tons 156,556 1000 112000 lbs 2,204.62 Cotton Thous. Met Tons 23,711 1000 50000 lbs 2,204.62 Coffee Thous. Met Tons 8,304 1000 37500 lbs 2,204.62 Cocoa Thous. Met Tons 4,292 1000 10 tons 1 15
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