EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROSTAT Directorate E: Sectoral and regional statistics Unit E-3: Environmental statistics and accounts Doc. WASTE WG 6.2.2 (2010) Original in EN Price Index on Secondary Materials Eurostat Unit E3 Environment Statistics Meeting of the Working Group "Statistics of the Environment" Sub-Group "Waste" Joint Eurostat/EFTA group Meeting 2 nd - 3 rd March 2010 BECH Building Room Ampère
Price index on secondary materials Introduction During the financial crisis of 2008/2009 a collapse in the trade of secondary materials was reported. As no public data was available the Environmental Data Centre (EDC) on Waste set-up a price index on waste materials to satisfy public information needs and to give a broader picture of the market for recycling materials. In the future, these indicators will be of interest to stakeholders who are concerned with the longtime performance of secondary material markets. Both trade volumes and price are shown in the same graph to highlight actual trends and volatility. The indicator may add some supplementary information to private databases which usually track a sample of waste contracts. The data covers intra- and extra- trade in EU-27 from Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS) for glass waste, paper and plastic waste. Foreign Trade Statistics are published monthly, with a delay of approximately 3.5 months. The year 2000 was chosen as the starting point because reliable data are available from 2000 onwards. Approach: The price index (PI) is calculated from the fixed share (fs) of the specific prices of waste types included from foreign trade: PI = fs 1 *PI 1 + fs 2 *PI 2 + fs i *PI i +.. where the fs is derived from the average 2000-2008 weight share. The index monitors the specific price for a defined, fixed set of materials, not just an average price. For the 2000 to 2008 the share of each considered subcategory (volume of subcategory over total volume) is calculated and taken as the fixed share for the index in the subsequent estimates. For this period the observed share of values and volumes of the different materials show only small variations. Thus the Index is quite stable over the 2000 to 2008 period. The total volume of the traded waste materials (import plus export) is shown as an additional indicator. This indicator (tonnes/month) shows the market activity and covers intra- and extratrade in EU-27. Glass Glass waste could be reported in the FTS under three items. For this purpose only the monitoring of 'glass cullets' makes sense. It needs to be noted that the item 'glass cullets' also contains some industrial material. Proposed indicator Price developments and trade volume of waste glass FTS item No 70010010:CULLET AND OTHER WASTE AND SCRAP OF GLASS (EXCL. GLASS IN THE FORM OF POWDER, GRANULES OR FLAKES) FTS - reporting Import (intra + extra) + exports (intra + extra) Units /tonnes; 1000 tonnes (monthly traded) Index 100% of item 70010010 Geographical coverage EU-27 Time coverage monthly from January 2000 1
For both graphs the full from 2000 to 2008 are given as a year average, from 2006 onwards the data is also displayed on a monthly basis to highlight the fluctuation of the data. Price Developments and Trade Volume of Glass Waste in EU-27 till October 2009 60,0 600 50,0 550 specific price ( /tonnes) 40,0 30,0 20,0 500 450 400 350 300 monthly volume (1 000 tonnes) 10,0 250 0,0 200 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 price: yearly price:monthly volume: yearly volume:monthly The EU-27 trade (black line average) shows an increase from approximately 250 ktonnes/month in the year 2000 to nearly 350 ktonnes/month in 2007. The monthly trade data (green line) shows the high fluctuation. The development has moved from a high of nearly 450 ktonnes/month in the first half of 2007 to a low of 250 ktonnes in early 2008. The year 2007 was the year with the highest traded amount since recording started. The year 2008 was slightly lower. The first two months of 2009 show a trading volume lower than the average of 2008, but the January/ February 2009 volume was still higher than the January/February volume in the 2008 and 2007. The data shows that the traded volume accounts to approximately 15 % of glass waste recycled. Extra EU-27 trade is minor for glass. The price development of glass waste is shown in the pink (yearly average) and blue line (monthly data). From 2000 to 2003 the average price was quite stable at around 37 /tonnes. From 2004 onwards the price increased to 45-50 /tonnes. The highest monthly price was observed in April 2008 at approx. 54 /tonnes. The reported prices from January / February 2009 are still above the previous, with prices of 49-51 /tonnes. 2
Paper Paper waste is reported in the FTS under six items. It reports three fractions of mostly industrial waste (4707-1, 4707-2, 4707-3090) and three fractions covering waste paper collected and sorted. As all fractions are covered by WStatR we take into account all six items in our indicator. Proposed indicator Price developments and trade volume of waste paper FTS item No 47071000:RECOVERED "WASTE AND SCRAP" PAPER OR PAPERBOARD OF UNBLEACHED KRAFT PAPER, CORRUGATED PAPER OR CORRUGATED PAPERBOARD 47072000:RECOVERED "WASTE AND SCRAP" PAPER OR PAPERBOARD MADE MAINLY OF BLEACHED CHEMICAL PULP, NOT COLOURED IN THE MASS 47073010:OLD AND UNSOLD NEWSPAPERS AND MAGAZINES, TELEPHONE DIRECTORIES, BROCHURES AND PRINTED ADVERTISING MATERIAL 47073090:"WASTE AND SCRAP" OF PAPER OR PAPERBOARD MADE MAINLY OF MECHANICAL PULP 47079010:UNSORTED, RECOVERED "WASTE AND SCRAP" PAPER OR PAPERBOARD 47079090:SORTED, RECOVERED "WASTE AND SCRAP" PAPER OR PAPERBOARD FTS - reporting Import (intra + extra) + exports (intra + extra) Units /tonnes; 1000000 tonnes (monthly traded) acc. to Index Index 29 % of item 47071000 11 % of item 47072000 19 % of item 47073010 9 % of item 47073090 13 % of item 47079010 19 % of item 47079090 Geographical coverage EU-27 Time coverage monthly from January 2000 The result is shown in the next graph. Price Developments and Trade Volume of Paper Waste in EU-27 till Oc. 2009 140,0 4,50 specific price index ( /tonnes) 130,0 120,0 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 monthly volume (million tonnes) 60,0 1,50 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 price index: yearly price index:monthly volume: yearly volume:monthly 3
The traded volume (black line) has increased from the year 2000 onwards, and has during the eight covered nearly doubled. The monthly volume (green line) shows the fluctuation around the yearly average. Since mid-2008 the monthly traded volume has dramatically fluctuated. From an all-time high of 3.28 million tonnes in October 2008, a rapid decline to approx. 2.3 million tonnes is noticed in November 2009. Since then the volume has recovered to before-crisis average. The specific price (pink line) shows a totally different story. From 2000 to 2001 the price crashed from 130 /tonnes to nearly 90 /tonnes. The price bounced back in 2002 but stayed around 100 /tonnes until 2007. The 2000-level was nearly reached in 2008. The monthly data (blue line) shows a steep increase in late 2007 to mid- 2008. From October 2008 the price declines from approx. 130 /tonnes to 80 /tonnes and afterwards partly recovers. The main driver in export is trade with China. Nearly all surplus from 2002 onwards could be attributed to exports to China. The next graph illustrates the difference in price and the corresponding development over time. As an example the trade positions with the highest and lowest price were chosen. Price for highest and lowest quality for paper waste (EU trade flows) till October 2009 250,0 200,0 price ( /tonnes) 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 Jan. 00 Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 price for best quality, yearly average price for lowest quality, yearly average price for best quality monthly price for lowest quality monthly The difference between the price of the lowest and highest quality is a nearly fixed offset. In other words, both prices are nearly developing in parallel. Observation of trade volumes gives a similar figure. Plastic Plastic waste is reported in the FTS under nine items from 2000-2003 and under six positions from 2004 onwards. In 2004 the nomenclature changed and some positions were combined. The following table shows the in which data is reported under which position. Number 5 and 7 in the table are combined to the new position #6. Additionally the positions 9, 10, 11 are combined to the new position 8. 4
FTS item 2000-2003 2004-onward 1 39.15.10.00 2 39.15.20.00 3 39.15.30.00 4 39.15.90.11 5 39.15.90.13 6 39.15.90.18 7 39.15.90.19 8 39.15.90.90 9 39.15.90.91 10 39.15.90.93 11 39.15.90.99 Proposed indicator FTS item No Price developments and trade volume of waste plastic 39151000:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF POLYMERS OF ETHYLENE 39152000:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF POLYMERS OF STYRENE 39153000:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF POLYMERS OF VINYL CHLORIDE 39159011:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF POLYMERS OF PROPYLENE 39159013:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF ACRYLIC POLYMERS 39159018:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF ADDITION POLYMERIZATION PRODUCTS (EXCL. THAT OF POLYMERS OF ETHYLENE, STYRENE AND VINYL CHLORIDE AND PROPYLENE) 39159019:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF ADDITION POLYMERIZATION PRODUCTS (EXCL. THAT OF ACRYLIC POLYMERS, POLYMERS OF ETHYLENE, STYRENE AND VINYL CHLORIDE AND PROPYLENE) 39159090:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF PLASTICS (EXCL. THAT OF ADDITION POLYMERIZATION PRODUCTS) 39159091:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF EPOXIDE RESINS 39159093:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF CELLULOSE AND ITS CHEMICAL DERIVATIVES 39159099:WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP, OF PLASTICS (EXCL. THAT OF ADDITION POLYMERIZATION PRODUCTS, EPOXIDE RESINS, CELLULOSE AND ITS CHEMICAL DERIVATIVES) Import (intra + extra) + exports (intra + extra) /tonnes; 1000 tonnes (monthly traded) acc. to Index FTS - reporting Units Index 2000-2003 46 % of item 39.15.10.00 4 % of item 39.15.20.00 4 % of item 39.15.30.00 8 % of item 39.15.90.11 1.5 % of item 39.15.90.13 7.5 % of item 39.15.90.19 0.25 % of item 39.15.90.91 0.25 % of item 39.15.90.93 28.5 % of item 39.15.90.99 Index 2004 onwards 46 % of item 39.15.10.00 4 % of item 39.15.20.00 4 % of item 39.15.30.00 8 % of item 39.15.90.11 9 % of item 39.15.90.18 29 % of item 39.15.90.90 Geographical EU-27 coverage Time coverage monthly from January 2000 5
The graph shows the development of volumes and specific prices from the year 2000 onwards. Price Developments and Trade Volumes of plastic waste in EU-27 till October 2009 400 600 550 specific price index ( /tonnes) 350 300 250 500 450 400 350 300 250 monthly volume (1 000 tonnes) 200 200 150 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 price index: yearly price index:monthly volume: yearly volume:monthly The traded volume more than doubled over the reported period from the year 2000 to 2008 from less than 200 ktonnes/month to over 400 ktonnes/month. In the year 2008 the volume (black line) stagnated on the high level. The monthly data (green line) shows a steady increase until November 2008 when the monthly volume collapses from 450 k-tonnes/month in October to 290 ktonnes/month in November. The volume bounced back to approx. 450 ktonnes in February 2009 and has remained stable. The price of plastic waste depends on the one hand on the supply and demand of plastic waste material but on the other hand on the crude oil price, which strongly influences the price of the virgin material. A 10-20 % decrease in price between 2000/2001 and the period 2002-2004 has been observed. Since 2004 the price has increased to levels above 350 /tonnes. The monthly data (blue line) only shows small fluctuations over the average yearly data (pink line) in the period from 2006 to 2008. From a high of approx. 375 /tonnes in October 2008 a sharp decline to a price of approx. 250 /tonnes in January/February 2009 is observed. The price has now reached the low 2003 level again. The trade volume recovers very quickly but the price remained at low prices. The next graph illustrates the extra EU-27 trade. Imports to EU-27 have been stable from 2000 onwards but exports have drastically increased. The exports are mainly shipped to eastern Asia. 6
EU-27 extra import and export flows for plastic waste 350 300 monthly flows (1 000 tonnes) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan. 00 Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 import: yearly import:monthly export: yearly export:monthly In 2006, 1.2 million tonnes/month of plastic waste was separately collected according to Waste Statistics Regulation. Nearly 20 % of the volume collected was exported overseas. 7