Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development Past Trends and Future Expectations for Employment In Minnesota Steve Hine, Research Director Labor Market Information Office September 16, 2016
Annual Job Growth Continues Into 7 th Year 3% 2% 1% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1% MN -2% US -3%
While Unemployment Levels Off At ~4% 10% 9% 8% 7% US MN 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 Relative Job Growth During Recovery by Industry Sector Total Nonfarm Private Sector Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Leisure and Hospitality Other Services 90 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Government
Job Losses (Recession) and Gains (Recovery) by Industry 90,000 70,000 50,000 = Regained Lost Jobs = A Ways to Go Yet Recession Recovery 30,000 10,000-10,000-30,000-50,000
80,000 Labor Force Growth In Minnesota has Slowed 70,000 60,000 50,000 Average Annual Labor Force Increase ~ 40,000 Per Year 40,000 30,000 20,000 Average Annual Labor Force Increase ~ 13,000 Per Year One-third The Pre-2000 Rate 10,000 0-10,000 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
And is Projected to Slow Further Average Annual Change 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 4,130 Labor Force 16-64 Labor Force 65+ Total Labor Force 2,094 6,231 11,317 15,449 15,274 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 Cumulative increase of 62,275 workers between now and 2030; 87,900 of them 65 or older Source: Minnesota State Demographer
It May Even Shrink For Awhile If LFPRs Don t increase Average Annual Change 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Labor Force 16-64 Labor Force 65+ 14,522 Total Labor Force 11,323 11,717 4,172-272 -2,002 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 -5,000-10,000 Cumulative increase of 9,500 workers between now and 2030; 67,600 of them 65 or older
Median Age 2010-2014 by County Average Sites of College Campuses
Growth we will see will be from Minorities (Population Projections, 2015-2030) 60% 50% 51.6% 40% 30% 33.6% 35.3% 31.0% 37.3% 20% 10% 0% 4.1% White alone Black alone Asian and Hawaiian 0.0% American Indian Two or More Races Hispanic or Latino, all races Minority Total 10.3% Total population Source: Minnesota State Demographer
Example of Trends to Come (American Community Survey, 2013 to 2014) Note: 2015 ACS data were released yesterday! White alone or in combination with one or more other races Change from 2013 to 2014 African American alone or in combination with one or more other races TOTAL POPULATION 10,668 13,762 Under 18 years (3,038) 2,474 18 to 34 years (2,086) 4,148 35 to 64 years (4,532) 6,063 65 years and over 20,324 1,077 EMPLOYMENT STATUS Population 16 years and over 13,599 12,472 Civilian labor force (1,921) 9,499 Employed 12,879 12,256 Unemployed (14,801) (2,757) Not in labor force 15,520 2,973
Another Example of Trends to Come (American Community Survey, 2013 to 2014) Change from 2013 to 2014 US born Foreign born Total Pop (16+) 8,443 33,324 Labor force -5,839 29,646 Employed 10,553 33,917 Unemployed -16,392-4,271 Not in labor force 14,282 3,678
But We Are Not Taking Advantage of Too Many in our Minority Population Share in Labor Force that are Unemployed Share of Population (16-64) Not in Labor Force Overall Share Source: State Demographic Center analysis of ACS 2010-2014 5-year estimates
Demographics also drives jobs of the future: Minnesota industries adding the most jobs, 2014-2024 3,210 3,180 3,010 2,970 2,920 2,880 2,700 2,550 2,510 5,200 6,270 7,210 12,390 11,290 10,250 9,730 9,570 9,490 9,310 8,410 Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living Home Health Care Services Offices of Physicians Other General Merchandise Stores Residential Intellectual & Developmental Disability, Mental Private Hospital Employment Restaurants and Other Eating Places Individual and Family Services Self-Employed Non-Ag Computer Systems Design and Related Services Offices of Other Health Practitioners Building Equipment Contractors Insurance Carriers Outpatient Care Centers Activities Related to Real Estate Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores Employment Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Other Ambulatory Health Care Services
Some Conclusions These Projections illustrate the impact that an aging population will have on our economy Increase in health care, personal care are significant Construction and IT are also strong sources of growth Job growth will be constrained by lack of available workforce (especially in Greater Minnesota) By how much depends on immigration and removing racial barriers These projections assume full employment (don t try to guess recessions) another deep recession will change things Must make most of the workforce we have by removing frequent impediments to work Skills, transportation, child care, sick leave, low wages to name a few Must improve worker mobility Housing markets, portable health care, labor exchange systems
For access to data shown here, go to our website at mn.gov/deed/data/. You can also call our LMI Helpline at 651-259-7384 or email us at deed.lmi@state.mn.us. Or call me at 651-259-7396. Thank You!