Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI

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Transcription:

Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI July 16, 18 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Taiwan MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Revenue & Earnings Growth 5 July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

500 450 Figure 1. TAIWAN MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) Stock Price Index 500 450 400 7/16 400 350 350 0 0 250 250 0 0 150 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0-day moving average. Source: MSCI. 150 800 650 Figure 2. TAIWAN MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION x 800 650 500 x 500 350 350 x 0 0 50 Taiwan MSCI Index 07/16/18 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 07/05/18 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 50 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

Earnings 35 Figure 3. TAIWAN MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 19 35 25 25 15 15 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Figure 4. TAIWAN MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 Jun 0 - - - - - - -40-50 NERI Apr -0.85 May -3.94 Jun -3.13 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40 -50 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

525 450 Figure 5. TAIWAN MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 525 450 375 17 18 19 375 0 0 225 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 225 150 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 150 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. 16 Figure 6. TAIWAN MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 16 14 12 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (7.3) 14 12 8 17 18 19 8 6 6 4 4 2 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

35 Figure 7. TAIWAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Valuation 35 Forward P/E (13.1) 25 25 15 15 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. 2.00 Figure 8. TAIWAN MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 2.00 1.75 Relative P/E (0.90) 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00.75.75.50 Relative P/E capped at 1.75 due to extreme values. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

70 60 50 40 Revenue & Earnings Growth Figure 9. TAIWAN MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) STEG capped at 60% 70 60 50 40 0 - - - -40-50 LTEG* (.3) STEG* (6.5) STRG* (5.5) 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. 0 - - - -40-50 Page 5 / July 16, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Taiwan MSCI www.

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