THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY Reforms, Results and Remaining Challenges Vienna, April 26 th, 2018
The Egyptian Economy Key Elements of the Reform Program Main Results Challenges Ahead Opportunities
.Prior to the Reform Program A long-standing and ultimately unsustainable policy mix resulted in: Low growth and investment; Rising inflation; Elevated general government debt; Overvalued and scarce foreign exchange; Widening current account deficit; and Dwindling international reserves (three months of imports).
Egyptian Reforms An ambitious comprehensive reform and adjustment program, supported by an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement with the IMF, aiming at: Improving the Welfare of All Egyptians Through adopting simultaneous Economic and structural reforms; Administrative reforms; and Legislative reforms. Aiming at creating a supportive environment for private sector development, inclusive growth and job creation.
Egyptian Reforms Macroeconomic policies Investment friendly environment Labor market flexibility and efficiency Education reform Social protection
Egyptian Reforms Macroeconomic Policies: Freely floating the Egyptian pound and pursuing a tight monetary policy to contain inflation pressures Launching a three-year fiscal consolidation program to reduce persistently high budget deficits; Reforming inefficient energy subsidies, and Supporting partnership with private sector.
Egyptian Reforms Investment Friendly Environment: New Investment Act; New Industrial Permits Act; Bankruptcy Act; New tax law; and New civil servants law and administrative reform to address corruption & red tape
Egyptian Reforms Labour Market Flexibility and Efficiency Promoting SMEs; Supporting the integration of the informal sector within the formal economy; Providing training programs; and Establishing incubators and linking them to research centers and business/industry to create an integrated echo system
Egyptian Reforms Education Reform New education system starting September 2018 that links market needs with output of the educational process Social Protection Strengthening social protection measures, and transformation from in-kind support to cash support); aligned with the targeted cash transfer programs of Takafol and Karama (Solidarity and Dignity) social program
Main Results Improving Real Sector Indicators Stabilizing Monetary and Fiscal Stance More Favorable External Balances Increased Confidence in the Egyptian Economy
Real Sector: Improving Economic Growth Economic Growth, Real (%) 4,4 4,3 4,2 5,2 5,3 2,9 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Q1-2017/18 Q2-2017/18 Source: Ministry of Planning, Follow-up, and Administrative Reform
Real Sector: Growth Driven Mainly by Investment Q1 & Q2 2017/18 % 5.2% 5.3% GDP Growth rate 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Q1 0,9 1,5 2,8 1,80 1,6 1,9 Q2 (estimated) Investment: 36% Net Exports: 34% Final Consumption: 30% Investment Final Consumption Net Exports Source: Ministry of Planning, Follow-up, and Administrative Reform
Real Sector: Manufacturing Leading the Growth Construction (9.5%) Extractions (12.5%) Manufacturing (14.4%) % Economic Growth (1 st Half 2017/18), Sectors Contributions 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14,4 12,5 9,5 9,2 7,6 6,1 3,7 3,7 3,4
Real Sector: Declining Unemployment Rates % Unemployment Rate (%) 15,0 10,0 13,4 12,9 12,8 12,4 11,3 5,0 0,0 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (Q2) 40 %of new jobs opportunities created by wholesale and retail trade sector, followed by transportation and storage sector with a share of about 29 % as a result of Improved transport activity in light of growing domestic trade and exports Growth of marketing outlets, commercial centers, and logistic zones
Monetary Balances: Declining Inflation Rate General Inflation Rate (Annual Basis) % 40 35 30 25 20 15 14,8 16,4 14,6 14,0 20,2 24,3 29,6 31,7 32,5 32,9 30,9 30,9 34,2 33,2 32,9 31,8 26,7 22,3 17,0 14,3 10
Stable and Available Forex Monetary Balances )L.E/US$( 18,8 18,6 18,4 18,537 Exchange Rate L.E /US$ 18,2 18,029 18 17,8 17,6 17,793 17,703 17,56 17,4 17,2 17 Jan., 2017 June December Jan., 2018 March. 13, 2018 Source: Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)
Initial increase in interest rates to absorb excess liquidity and restrain inflation, heading south after controlling inflation 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 9,25 10,75 11,75 14,75 Jan. 6, 2016 March, 24 June, 23 November, 3 16,75 May. 25, 2017 18,75 17,75 July, 13 Feb. 15, 2018 Source: Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)
Fiscal Balances: Declining Deficit Overall fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP fell down to 4.2 % for the first half of 2017/18 compared to 5 % for the same period in the year earlier % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Overall & Primary Deficit (% GDP) 6,4 5 4,2 2,2 1,1 0,3 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Overall Deficit Primer Deficit First Half Source: Ministry of Finance
External Balances: Shrinking Trade Gap US$ billion 40 30 20 10 0 31,8 29,5 21,7 18,3 10,1 11,2 Trade Balance (Deficit) Imports Exports 2017/16 2018/17 )First Half( 2017/18 2013/14 Change(%) Shrinking foreign trade gap due to growth of exports and import substitution Source: General Organization for Export and Import Control. (11 %( (-7.3 %) (-15.7 %) to (-2.1%( (3 %( (5.3 %( From Exports Imports Trade Balance Deficit
External Balances: Growing Non-Petroleum Exports % Key Sectors with an increase in exports % Key Sectors with a decline in imports 30 25 20 15 28,9 20,2 16,7 14,8 13,5 13,7 30 25 20 15 28.6 23.5 12 10 5 10 5 5.7 4 0 0 Source: General Organization for Export and Import Control.
External Balances: Comforting Levels of Net International Reserves )US$ billion)( 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 14,9 26,4 Net international reserves (US$) 28,6 36 36,7 38,2 42,5 US$ 42.5 billion in Feb., 2018 10 June, 2013 Jan., 2017 April July October Jan., 2018 February Source: Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Increasing the number of months covered by merchandise exports from 3.1 months in June, 2013 to 8 months in Feb., 2018.
Raring improvement direction Increased Confidence: Improving Sovereign Rating 10 9 8 7 6 B (stable) B (stable) B (stable) B (stable) B (stable) B (Positive) Floating Egyptian pound Applying VAT 5 4 Reforming Subsidy System 3 2 1 Applying Civil Service Law 0 Dec., 2015 May, 2016 July, 2016 Dec., 2016 June, 2017 Jan., 2018 Source: FITCH
Increased Confidence: Increasing PMI points 55 50 46,7 45,9 47,4 47,3 47,2 48,6 48,9 47,4 48,4 50,7 48,3 49,9 45 41,8 42,8 43,3 40 35 PMI 30 Increased business community confidence in the business environment
Remaining Challenges - High youth unemployment (14-25 year olds) (at 24.1%); - High inflation rate: despite the downward trend since September 2017, it remains high @14.3% (annual basis); - High Domestic Debt ratios (foreign debt to GDP 34%, domestic debt to GDP 98%) - Inadequate competitiveness. Egypt ranked 100 of 137 countries in the Global competitive index; and - Tourism sector has not yet witnessed an upturn albeit currency devaluation and political stability.
On Going Reforms - Fiscal Consolidation, increasing the tax base, reforming administrative costs; - Continued monetary reform, inflation targeting, financial inclusion; - Closing gender and age gaps (programs targeting women and youth); - Improving resource management, particularly water usage and carbon emissions; - Structural reforms, privatization, developmental sovereign wealth fund; - Fighting corruption through continued digitalization and administrative reforms.
Ongoing Reforms Fiscal Consolidation: we need to create fiscal space for the significant spending needs and priorities as the chart illustrates: Upgrading infrastruct ure This could be achieved through tax policy reforms - broadening the VAT base; - increasing progressivity of the personal income tax; - improving corporate income tax performance; - simplifying the tax regime; - streamlining the tariff structure. Investment in health and education Spending Priorities over the mediumterm Building sustainable social safety net improving administration revenue - direct and indirect tax management; - creating a large and medium taxpayers unit and - rationalizing staff accordingly; and building risk-assessment programs by segment
Ongoing Reforms Monetary reforms: Modernizing the Monetary Policy Framework: Toward Inflation Targeting (IT) in the medium term will have preserved macroeconomic stability over the medium- term. In this context, attaining low and stable inflation and financial market are essentially required. To this end, we need to develop adequate institutional, operational, and governance structures that are primarily essential for successful implementation of IT. Some of these institutional pre-requisites include: defining price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy; enhancing flexibility of the exchange rate; strengthening autonomy of the central bank; and strengthening the financial stability framework consistent with independent monetary policy
Ongoing Reforms Structural reforms: Improving in business climate to support Private Sector-led Growth and increase financial inclusion. Raise productivity and growth, and better integrate Egypt with global trade are the main targeted areas. Generating higher growth and employment requires a concerted reorientation towards private sector and export-led growth. Under the backdrop of increasing the potential growth in manufacturing sector, it will have a special attention over the medium- term of reforms. a five-year program to divest minority shares in select state-owned enterprises Access to land continues to be one of the main hurdles for the private sector better integration of women in the labor force Structural reforms main pillars Strengthening competition and addressing corruption are key to achieving greater economic efficiency
Ongoing Reforms Developing the current system for investment allocations: Should be based on the government priorities; from which: SDS: Egypt Vision 2030 programs and priorities. Completing and finishing the current implemented projects based on the ratio of achievement (70%, 40%, less than 40%, replacement, extension, new). Supporting the Mega projects. The direct effect on improving the likelihood of the citizens. The impact of the investment on growth rates and job creation. Encouraging the participation of private sector (PPP & CSR). Efficiency of achievements in the current projects. Targeting Development gaps within the governorates. A new formula for allocating PFCF at the regional level: Population intensity The inhabited area Unemployment HDI Poverty rate
Main Opportunities Favorable production environment with: - Improving Macroeconomic Outlook and business environment; - Accessible factors of production, particularly young low-cost labor force; - Well-capitalized, under-leveraged banking sector flush with liquidity; and - Underlying potential in a number of sectors, including: petrochemicals, infrastructure, agribusiness and pharmaceuticals. 30
Main Opportunities Production can be addressed to the local market with Egypt s populous economy with inherent sizable demand; 31
Main Opportunities Or exported given the particularly advantageous geographical location at the confluence of global shipping routes, made all the more important being the 3rd country globally with access to trade zones. 32
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