Mr. Robert Beschel Lead Public Sector Specialist, MENA World Bank The Impact of Large Governments on Development and Growth in the MENA Region Presented at IMF/AMF High-Level Seminar on Institutions and Economic Growth in the Arab Countries Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates December 19-20, 2006 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the paper.
Joint IMF/AMF High Level Seminar: The Impact of Large Public Sectors in MENA Robert P. Beschel Jr. Lead Public Sector Specialist World Bank MENA Vice Presidency 1 Outline of Presentation Does MENA have large public sectors vis-à-vis other regions? What are the costs and consequences? What is to be done? 2 Governance in MENA 1
Global Governance Trends from 1989 on Breakup of Empires & Rise of New States Expansion of Democratic Regimes Reduction in the Role and Size of the State Decentralization Rise of the Anticorruption Agenda Growth in E-GovernanceE Rise of New Public Management 3 1990s Were the Second Most Prolific Decade in History in Terms of New State Creation 50 45 40 State Creation Since 1945 250 200 Number of New States 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 150 100 50 U.N. Membership 0 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-02 0 4 Governance in MENA 2
On average, MENA has Been in the Middle in Terms of Political Stability WBI Indicators 5 Significant Global Increase in the Number of Democracies During the 1990s Growth in Democracy Number 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Percent 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 6 Governance in MENA 3
A Democratic Deficit in MENA? Electoral Democracy in MENA Global Electoral Democracy Free Partly Free Not Free Free Partly Free Not Free 7 For the Quality of Administration, MENA s Governance Gap is Small 8 Governance in MENA 4
But for Public Accountability, the Governance Gap is Wider 9 25 Size of Government in the MENA Region (Percent of Total Employment) 20 1974-1984 1985-1997 15 10 5 0 East Asia and the Pacific n/a Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: MENA Social Protection Strategy, 2001. 10 Governance in MENA 5
Global Reduction in the Role and Size of the State (Privatization Proceeds through 1996) Sub-Saharan Africa -- 2% Eastern Europe / Central Asia -- 19% South Asia -- 5% East Asia / Pacific -- 17% Latin America / Caribbean -- 54% Middle East/ North Africa -- 3% 11 Significant Global Turn Towards Decentralization "As a political phenomenon, decentralization is widespread. Out of the 75 developing and transition countries with populations greater than 5 million, all but 12 claim to be embarked on some form of transfer of political power to local units of government. Source: William Dillinger, Decentralization and Its Implications for Urban Service Delivery, 1994 12 Governance in MENA 6
with Limited Impact in MENA 13 In Summary Many of the global trends in governance in the 1990s were felt only distantly in MENA In comparison with other regions, MENA fairs well in terms of political stability and e-governance e and fair in terms of facilitating private sector development, service delivery and anticorruption, with wide variation between countries The region fairs worse than global comparators on issues of decentralization and on public voice, accountability and participation Overall size of the public sector is an issue 14 Governance in MENA 7
How Do We Measure Civil Service Size? Assessment of the Number of Civil Servants Number of Civil Servants per Capita Gov. Employment as % of Total Employment Assessment of the Wage Levels in Relative Terms Wage bill as % of GDP Wage bill as % of Revenue or Own Source Revenue Wage bill as % of Recurrent Expenditure Aggregate Numbers Tells Us Very Little and Should be Viewed in Context of Individual Country Experiences 15 How Do We Measure Wage Adequacy? ACGW as multiple of per capita GDP Private Sector Comparators Average Manufacturing Wage Average Financial Sector Wage Average Private Sector Wage Vertical Compression Outside 1:7 to 1:20 range provides poor incentives for performance (but there is little comparative data) Widespread discretionary allowances above base pay can be unfair and skew incentives 16 Governance in MENA 8
Which Employees Are Being Measured? Total Public Employment State Owned Enterprises Armed Forces General Government Civilian Central Government Sub national Government Education Health Police 17 Government Employment in MENA Largest General Government Employment in the Developing World Largest Central Government Employment (3% of population) Smallest Sub-National government (in terms of number of personnel) Largest Military (not counting other security personnel) 18 Governance in MENA 9
General Civilian Government as % of Total Employment 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Africa Asia ECA LAC MENA OECD Region 19 Government Employment as % of Total Population 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 North Africa Middle East Gulf Central Government Subnational Education Health Military 20 Governance in MENA 10
MENA Government Wages Central Government Wages absorb over 10% of GDP, the largest fiscal weight of any region Gulf is the highest region within MENA 21 Central Civilian Government Wages as % of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Africa Asia ECA LAC MENA OECD MIC Overall Central Government Wages and salaries 22 Governance in MENA 11
Government Wage Evolution for MENA Countries, as % of GDP, 2000-2004 2004 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Iran Jordan Algeria Lebanon Tunisia Morocco Kuwait 2001 2002 2003 2004 23 Public-Private Private Wage Ratios 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% East Asia LAC OECD Africa MENA 24 Governance in MENA 12
What Is the Impact of a Large Public Sector? Crowding Out of private sector investment through taxes and higher interest rates Lower productivity of public sector investment Distortions in labor markets High reservation wage leads to queuing for public sector jobs Public sector soaks up talent that would otherwise go to the private sector Negative Externalities Greater compliance costs/increased focus on lobbying General loss of productivity throughout the public sector 25 The Rahn Curve 26 Governance in MENA 13
However, Empirically the Actual Impact Depends Cross country regressions have shown some correlation between economic growth and the size of the public sector Econometric analysis on 27 countries from 1960-2003 shows that an increase in the deficit by 1% of GDP results in a decrease of investment by.3% of GDP on average (Krajewski & Mackiewicz, 2006) Folster and Henrekson find a robust negative relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. In addition, they conclude that a 10 percent increase in government expenditure as a percent of GDP is associated with a decrease in the economic growth rate by 0.7 0.8 percentage points (2001). 27 However, Empirically the Actual Impact Depends However, in any given case, the specific problems identified above may or may not be an important factor Country specific work is necessary before firm conclusions can be drawn 28 Governance in MENA 14
How Much is Enough? 29 Wagner s s Law As nations industrialize, the share of the public sector in the national economy grows continually. The increase in state expenditure is needed because of three main reasons: (i) social activities of the state, (ii) administrative and protective actions, and (iii) welfare functions. -- Adolph Wagner (1835-1917) 1917) -- 30 Governance in MENA 15
How Much is Enough? The U.S. Example 31 The U.S. Example (cont.) 32 Governance in MENA 16
33 Options for Reform: How Much is Enough? 34 Governance in MENA 17
Options for Reform: Bottom Up vs. Top Down Approaches Bottom up looks at the mission, mandate, organizational structure, staffing, and work norms for individual ministries and departments 35 Options for Reform: Bottom Up vs. Top Down Approaches Top Down looks at the aggregate size of the public sector & wage bill benchmarked against global norms and similar countries 36 Governance in MENA 18
Options for Reform: How Much is Enough? In Reality There is no hard and fast answer. The size of the public sector depends upon the complex interplay between numerous dynamics: (1) public demands & expectations of government; (2) affordability; (3) ministerial staffing requirements and work standards; (4) civil service legislation & establishment controls; (5) societal expectations regarding employment; (6) dynamism of the private sector; (7) political patronage and (8) the strength of public sector unions. Key Question: Why Does Overstaffing Exist in a Particular Context? 37 In MENA, Large Public Sectors Have Multiple Causes Socialist & Dirigiste Legacy (Algeria, Egypt, Syria) Redistribution of Oil Revenues (GCC) Limited Private Sector Growth & Labor Surplus Economy (Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) Political & Ethnic Pressures (Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine) 38 Governance in MENA 19
Options for Reform Assess the problem carefully How bad is it? What are the dynamics driving it? Where does the bulk of overstaffing exist? How robust are the numbers? What is the demographic profile of the public sector? What is the optimal structure and staffing profile for ministries and departments? Who are political and administrative reform champions? When is the optimal window of opportunity? 39 Dealing with Surplus Labor Implement Alternatives First (ghost workers, double dippers, staff past retirement age, etc.) Hiring Freeze & Natural Attrition (depends on civil service demographic profile) Retrenchment (design issues are key) Mandatory vs. Voluntary General vs. Targeted Linked with broader reform agenda Carefully work the financial numbers Test with focus groups Prevent re-entry entry & adverse selection 40 Governance in MENA 20
Dealing with Pay Reform How robust are payroll and establishment controls? What is the comparison between public and private sector pay? Are there key skill gaps or areas where it is difficult to recruit good staff? How many and what type of allowances are provided? Is there scope for rationalization? Centralized or decentralized pay policy? Avoid ad-hoc rounds of competitive increases Don t t get overly complex pay and grading schemes 41 Options for Reform Complementary Measures Complementary Measures Streamlining Investment Procedures/Improving the Business Climate Liberalizing Labor Markets Reforming Education Incentives (problem of employment guarantees) Promoting Private Sector Led Growth 42 Governance in MENA 21