Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 11 Worsening oversupply Malaysia s -15 palm oil output unexpectedly rose 4% m-o-m to 2.04m ; and brought ending stockpile to record 2.83m Steady imports offset 2% m-o-m growth in exports Malaysia CY15F palm oil output raised to 20.10m ; -15 output expected to drop 14% m-o-m to 1.75m Top pick: Wilmar Not quite seasonal low crop yet. -15 palm oil output unexpectedly expanded by 4% m-o-m to 2.04m or 10% above our forecast of 1.85m thanks to a strong 6% m-o-m recovery in Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) yields in East Malaysia; offsetting a 3% decline in Peninsular Malaysia (vs. 3% m-o-m drop in Peninsular Malaysia and 0.6% m-o-m rise in East Malaysia during the same period last year). We suspect this was due to delayed ripening in previous months due to dry weather. With two more months left in the year, we adjusted Malaysia s CY15F output to 20.10m from 19.73m and expect -15 palm oil output to drop 14% m-o-m to 1.75m in line with historical low crop season. -15 exports likely to expand further. Spurred by low prices, -15 palm oil exports continued to expand, by 2% m-o-m to 1.712m (or 3% higher than expected) led by shipments to India; offset by lower demand from China and Japan. We suspect fears of lower oilseed output in India (due to below-normal monsoon) and lower inventory had prompted purchases ahead of further inventory drawdown. For this reason, we expect -15 exports to expand 7% m- o-m towards 1.83m. -15 palm oil inventory may drop on seasonally lower output. As at end--15, Malaysia s palm oil stockpile reached 2.83m (all-time high) or 11% ahead of forecast. Offsetting higher exports, imports remained steady at 73k probably reflecting a price disparity. Having adjusted our forecasts, we now expect palm oil imports to come in at 65k (-12% m-o-m) and therefore resulting in -15 stockpile of 2.61m. This represents stock/usage (exports + domestic consumption) ratio of 12.5% - down from 13.5% at end--15. Near-term strength, but no spike. A prospective drop in palm oil output from both seasonal and weather drivers is expected to lend support to palm oil prices. However, downside risks in Indonesian biodiesel demand and potential release of Argentine soybean inventory may continue to put a cap on palm oil price strength over the next six months. We believe a stable price environment and ramp up in Indonesia s B15/B20 mandate should continue to benefit Wilmar, which remains our top pick in the sector. JCI : 4,451.05 KLCI : 1,686.11 STI : 2,997.72 Analyst Ben Santoso +65 6682 3707 bensantoso@dbs.com Stock coverage Price * Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) LCY US$m LCY 3 mth 12 mth Rating Rp Astra Agro Lestari 18,700 2,167 15,800 (2.0) (18.4) FV Eagle High Plantations 218 506 180 (38.4) (59.3) FV London Sumatra 1,365 685 1,260 12.8 (27.8) FV Sampoerna Agro 1,290 179 1,760 (22.8) (37.7) BUY RM Felda Global Ventures 1.93 1,609 1.05 23.7 (44.7) FV Genting Plantations 10.44 1,856 9.60 7.7 (1.9) HOLD IJM Plantation 3.65 734 3.25 4.3 (1.4) HOLD IOI Corporation 4.34 6,247 3.20 7.2 (10.5) FV KL Kepong 23.40 5,695 19.25 8.9 2.5 HOLD Sime Darby 8.30 11,781 7.60 1.7 (13.5) HOLD TSH Resources 2.02 626 1.95 (6.5) (12.6) HOLD S$ Bumitama Agri 0.80 993 0.88 (11.6) (27.3) BUY First Resources 2.00 2,228 1.69 7.2 (2.0) HOLD Indofood Agri 0.57 558 0.52 (0.9) (30.9) HOLD Golden Agri Resources 0.38 3,400 0.27 18.8 (25.5) NR Wilmar International 3.07 13,634 3.70 0.0 (3.8) BUY Source: DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, AllianceDBS Research *Prices as at end 10 CPO, soybean, soybean oil price forecasts 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F CPO price (RM/ FOB P.Gudang) 2,413 2,200 2,340 2,450 2,610 2,740 2,880 CPO price (US$/ FOB P.Gudang) 738 546 537 561 596 627 659 Soybean price (US$/ FOB Chicago) 457 334 322 318 321 335 350 Soybean oil price (US$/ FOB Chicago) 812 639 655 681 717 748 780 Source: DBS Bank estimates www.dbsvickers.com ed-th / sa- W
Regional Industry Focus Regional peer comparison Est. 15F 15F Adjuste d Adjuste d FY Div. EPS growth FY Net land bank own ma t. own planted Share price ket cap 15F EV/planted 15F EV/mature CY PER, x yield, % (inc. BA gains), % gearing, % FY EV/ EBITDA, x (ha.) (ha.) (ha.) 11-10- (m) (own) (own) 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F % % 15F- 17F own FFB vol CAGR 15F- 17F EPS CAGR Re c Indonesia Astra Agro L. n/a 196,177 236,311 Rp 18,700 US$ 2,167 US$ 10,539 US$ 12,695 33.8 17.6 3.8 1.3-65.2 92.6 42.1 32.9 14.9 9.6 5.5 45.6 FV Rp 15,800 Eagle High P. 419,006 101,241 139,606 Rp 218 US$ 506 US$ 7,476 US$ 10,309 neg NM 0.0 0.0 NM NM 103.7 100.8 16.3 11.5 21.4 NM FV Rp 180 London Sum.* 215,917 79,976 93,135 Rp 1,365 US$ 685 US$ 6,317 US$ 7,356 15.3 16.1 4.0 2.7-33.4-5.1 NC NC 10.6 11.2 4.5 1.1 FV Rp 1,260 Sampoerna A. 246,873 56,823 79,141 Rp 1,290 US$ 179 US$ 3,713 US$ 5,171 8.7 10.3 3.5 2.9-17.4-16.1 53.1 53.1 5.1 5.3 3.8 (24.4) B Rp 1,760 Simple avg US$ 3,538 US$ 7,011 US$ 8,883 19.2 14.7 11.7 9.4 Ta rge t price Basis Malaysia Felda Global V. 355,864 267,805 329,683 RM 1.93 US$ 1,609 US$ 7,946 US$ 9,781 70.8 36.1 1.0 1.4-69.5 96.3 57.8 67.3 13.5 12.4 3.3 45.9 FV RM 1.05 Genting Plant. 150,912 92,457 126,251 RM 10.44 US$ 1,856 US$ 19,268 US$ 26,311 41.7 35.4 0.5 0.6-48.9 17.7 NC 3.9 31.2 26.5 10.1 25.2 H RM 9.60 IJM Plant. 78,484 44,340 58,389 RM 3.65 US$ 734 US$ 13,947 US$ 18,366 29.9 25.3 1.4 1.8-6.8 25.4 21.2 24.3 18.8 15.0 12.9 20.8 H RM 3.25 IOI Corp** 220,593 149,568 178,765 RM 4.34 US$ 6,247 US$ 11,135 US$ 13,309 61.7 32.5 1.2 1.3-95.0 334.7 92.6 92.5 34.2 21.3-0.1 141.0 FV RM 3.20 KL Kepong 245,905 174,523 190,952 RM 23.40 US$ 5,695 US$ 11,566 US$ 12,655 27.3 24.6 2.1 2.4-10.8 13.1 15.8 14.2 16.4 14.7 2.9 9.2 H RM 20.00 Sime Darby 647,373 526,052 595,139 RM 8.30 US$ 11,781 US$ 6,955 US$ 7,868 22.3 21.0 2.2 2.2-32.6-0.2 46.4 38.7 14.9 12.9 3.3 5.9 H RM 7.60 TSH Res. 82,841 27,177 45,301 RM 2.02 US$ 626 US$ 11,106 US$ 18,512 24.0 22.2 1.0 1.1-8.5 7.9 79.7 82.4 18.0 17.1 12.4 9.0 H RM 1.95 Simple avg US$ 28,548 US$ 11,703 US$ 15,257 39.7 28.2 21.0 17.1 SOP SOP Singapore Bumitama A. 191,561 91,731 115,413 S$ 0.80 US$ 993 US$ 11,595 US$ 14,589 22.5 14.4 1.6 0.8-46.8 56.3 58.8 57.9 15.1 9.1 15.2 35.8 B S$ 0.88 First Resources 312,488 119,856 170,736 S$ 2.00 US$ 2,228 US$ 14,711 US$ 20,956 19.7 18.3 1.7 1.4-33.0 7.8 9.2 3.9 10.9 9.5 8.3 13.4 H S$ 1.69 Golden Agri R. 558,000 356,115 372,951 S$ 0.38 US$ 3,400 US$ 16,276 US$ 17,046 37.1 25.6 0.3 1.0-20.7 44.7 26.1 64.8 13.9 10.2 4.7 34.2 NR S$ 0.27 Indofood Agri* 541,224 199,187 247,483 S$ 0.57 US$ 558 US$ 5,099 US$ 6,335 NM 17.8 0.0 0.0-82.3 231.3 29.7 38.3 13.6 8.1 7.0 98.4 H S$ 0.52 Wilmar Int'l 573,401 216,663 243,287 S$ 3.07 US$ 13,634 US$ 2,822 US$ 3,169 13.5 13.1 1.5 1.6-8.8 3.3 69.1 67.9 12.2 11.0 2.3 5.0 B S$ 3.70 Simple avg US$ 20,813 US$ 11,920 US$ 14,731 23.2 17.8 13.2 9.6 * Including rubber and other crops ** Excluding effective stake in associates land bank Source: Companies, Bloomberg Finance LP, DBS Bank/DBS Vickers/AllianceDBS estimates Page 2 Page 2
Malaysian palm oil production 2,200,000 Malaysian palm oil ending stock 2,900,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,300,000 1,700,000 2,100,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 1,700,000 1,300,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,300,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 Malaysian palm oil stock/usage ratio 14.0% Malaysian palm oil exports 1,850,000 13.0% 1,750,000 12.0% 1,650,000 11.0% 1,550,000 10.0% 1,450,000 9.0% 1,350,000 8.0% 1,250,000 7.0% 1,150,000 6.0% 1,050,000 5.0% 950,000 Top 10 Malaysian palm oil exports by destination Chg. % Chg. m-o-m - - % Chg. Country m-o-m () y-o-y INDIA 160,170 222,162 297,549 87,391 344,600 435,833 351,515 263,946 357,156 441,035 23% 83,879 2,961,357 2,602,818 14% CHINA P.R 216,253 64,765 132,722 262,713 359,660 243,932 290,209 194,876 192,537 167,470-13% -25,067 2,125,135 2,241,283-5% EU 172,269 136,510 112,938 130,520 267,245 216,678 211,581 254,621 227,963 221,599-3% -6,364 1,951,924 1,962,220-1% PAKISTAN 56,013 33,305 60,387 64,562 58,385 71,580 40,310 101,950 57,766 57,949 0% 183 602,206 701,311-14% U.S.A 64,662 52,282 49,213 77,324 45,410 44,331 73,594 57,332 50,319 74,522 48% 24,203 588,988 663,847-11% VIETNAM 52,718 41,234 61,131 67,806 53,671 49,900 62,896 40,437 48,465 47,738-2% -727 525,997 488,577 8% PHILIPPINES 40,464 64,622 54,943 51,385 48,901 41,132 46,016 47,796 66,462 53,750-19% -12,712 515,471 413,924 25% JAPAN 41,974 43,698 31,296 41,801 60,606 49,598 30,087 45,219 60,153 42,416-29% -17,737 446,848 428,685 4% SOUTH KOREA 41,471 21,533 23,054 38,985 26,053 43,254 34,151 54,558 20,362 28,887 42% 8,525 332,309 317,919 5% SINGAPORE 33,301 31,087 29,637 28,589 33,866 22,296 49,320 43,570 30,527 28,292-7% -2,235 330,485 406,426-19% Page 3
Amidst rising inventory, the market has already priced in El Nino premium, in our view 7,000,000 RM/ 4,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Combined palm oil inventory in Malaysia, India, China (LHS) 3,500 3,000 4,000,000 CPO price (RHS) 2,500 2,000 3,000,000 Malaysia palm oil stockpile (LHS) 1,500 2,000,000 1,000 1,000,000 Combined China, India, Malaysia palm oil consumption (LHS) 500 - - 5/ 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ Sources: Bloomberg Finance LP, MPOB, SEA of India, Cofeed.com, DBS Bank estimates Page 4
DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. 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