Transit-Orientated-Development and the 24-Hour City A/Professor François Viruly University of Cape Town 10 May 2018 WCPDF
Savills
STEEP: The Factors Disrupting the Property Market SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL Urbanisation Internet of Things Smart Buildings Digitization Grass- Routes Politics Middle-Class Big Data Sustainability Black Middle-Class Decline Local Gov
A Glimpse into the Future Key Disruptors TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL
Accumulated in nearly a century Accumulated in 4 years 610 000 Rooms in 88 Countries 650 000 Rooms in 192 Countries Lausberg Old Model: Asset-intensive Source: Eigene Darstellung; nach Rachel Botsman, 2014 New Model: Information-intensive
PROPTECH: Big Data and Property SMART REAL ESTATE PROPTECH REAL ESTATE FINTECH FINTECH SHARED ECONOMY Proptech (created within and for the property sector) is endogenous: fintech, virtual reality, blockchains, artificial intelligence, and smart sensors
1973 1983 2006 Previous Cycles in South Africa: 1960-2017 Creative Destruction and Structural Changes
Real Economic Growth : GDP 8 y-o-y % change 6 4 2 0-2 BER forecast -4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: StatsSA
Total IPD Returns vs GDP Growth 40 30 20 10 0-10 Capital Income GDP Interest MSCI MSCI 2017
Decentralised A & B Office Vacancies 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Johannesburg Decentralised Cape Town Decentralised Durban Decentralised Pretoria Decentralised SAPOA
SQM Cape Town Take-up Rates 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-50000 -100000 CBD Century City V& A Claremont Pinelands Rondebosch Bellville SAPOA
Mortgage Advance % change over 12 months 18 % 16 14 Commercial Property 12 10 8 6 Total Mortgage Advance 4 2 Residential Property 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SARB
Survey of Investment Opportunities (ULI) Ranking Top 5 Ranking Bottom 5 1 Logistics 19 Science Parks 2 Self Storage 20 Retail Parks 3 Private Res 21 Business Parks 4 5 Student Housing Retirement Housing 22 Suburban Offices 23 Out of Town Shopping ULI 2018 / Emerging Trends in Real Estate
Market Structures-Portfolio Investment South Africa UK Portugal Spain Canada Ireland Norway Netherlands France Germany Denmark Sweden 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Residential Office Retail Industrial Other SAPIX/IPD
A Glimpse into the Future Transport and Social TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL
The Potential Benefits of TODs Do we expect too much with this tool? Ecological Safe environment Potential to promote developments Congestion reduction Successful TOD Easy access to transit limits Access to quality public space Diverse mix of use in commercial developments Cost Reduction
Optimising TOD Externalities and Realizing the Benefits (the externalities) Focus on the correct level of scale Avoid Distorting the Market OPTIMISING TOD EXTERNALITIES Understand Markets - Segments -Structure of Markets -Costs Influence Feasibilities Understand the Players
Improving and Managing the Intensity of Use of the Built Environment Connecting the Built Environment 24 Hours a Day Source: City of Cape Town
The Night-Time Economy The focus has been on spatial attributes and little is being said about the relationship between time and the built environment City policies at present says very little about the night time economy. It is undervalued, under researched and unrecognised Not just focused on the leisure and alcohol sector it has positive implications for employment (creative industries) and tourism In the new Economy many don t work Standard hours. Use the night time economy to be more efficient and inclusionary - education and the delivery of social services. It improves inclusivity, diversity and livability. A number of cities now have night time mayors Photos LViruly
The Services Wanted in Nairobi at Night; Source: C. Munbua
Aligning City Policies with the Night Time Economy CoCpt
The Property Market Delivers one way or another 24 hours a day TOWN PLANNING SERVICES BUILDING Property Rights Tenure Community Rights/ Entitlement OCCUPATION
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