INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT: 3Q CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SEVERAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE ECONOMY: For 3Q13, real GDP growth increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%, which was better than the consensus expectations of 1.9%. Job gains during the quarter were 490,000, with the largest additions among the goods-producing, retail trade, and professional and business services industries. unemployment rate decreased during 3Q13 by 40 bps to 7.2%. ABSORPTION: Net absorption on a national basis totaled 40.8 msf in 3Q13, an increase of 9.0 msf from the previous quarter and an increase of 15.4 msf from one year prior. SUPPLY: Continuing the trend from the last quarter, construction activity remained minimal throughout the nation. The number of square feet under construction increased since the last quarter from 63.3 msf to 70.8 msf, but this figure still equates to just 0.3% of inventory. During the quarter, there were approximately 19.7 msf of starts, up 4.9 msf from 2Q13. PNC s footprint markets accounted for 43.3% of the space underway. VACANCY: The national industrial vacancy rate continued to improve in 3Q13, ending the quarter at 8.4%, down 20 bps from the last quarter and down 80 bps from a year ago. The national rate is now 200 bps below this cycle s 10.4% peak and only 40 bps above its low. Of the 142 industrial markets that we monitor, 113 had lower vacancy rates than a year ago (down from 117 in 2Q13). The Prepared by: Jeffrey S. Moses Real Estate Market Research PNC Real Estate 249 Fifth Avenue Pittsburgh, PA 15222 412-762-6879 Jeffrey.Moses@pnc.com RENTS: The average industrial rent continued its upward trend, having grown for the eighth consecutive quarter, though it remains approximately 9.6% below its prior peak. This quarter, it rose $0.08/sf (1.5%) sequentially and $0.23/sf (4.2%) annually to $5.72/sf. For 3Q13, all ten of the nation s top industrial markets experienced annual rental growth. As with the previous quarter, Philadelphia posted the smallest increase of all the top markets, at 1.4%. CAPITALIZATION RATES: Sales of significant industrial properties totaled $12.6B in 3Q13, a noteworthy annual increase of 81.3%. The average warehouse cap rate remained relatively unchanged at 6.8%, while the average flex-space rate declined 17 bps to 7.6%. DISTRESS: Industrial properties continue to have the lowest amount among the major property types, accounting for 7.4% of the $151.2 billion in total outstanding distress. PNC is a registered service mark of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. This document is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is gathered from public sources believed by PNC to be accurate and reliable at time of publication, but neither PNC nor any of its affiliates is providing any guaranty or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of that information or of the conclusions presented in this document. In addition, markets do change. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. The information set forth herein does not constitute legal, tax or accounting advice. You should obtain such advice from your own counsel or accountant. Any reliance upon the information provided herein is solely and exclusively at your own risk.. The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 2 ECONOMY This section discusses quarterly changes and trends occurring within the economy and supply chain components that influence industrial space demand. GDP & EMPLOYMENT For 3Q13, real GDP growth increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% (advance estimate), which was better than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. The growth rate was up 30 bps from 2Q13 and up 120 bps from a year ago. The improvement was due to reduced reliance on imports, greater investment in inventories, and stronger growth in state and local government spending. The offsets to this were slower growth in exports, business fixed investment, and consumer spending. For the third consecutive quarter, inventories added 0.8% to growth, though they will likely be a drag in the near-term. Job gains during the quarter were 490,000, with the largest additions among the goodsproducing, retail trade, and professional and business services industries. The unemployment rate decreased during 3Q13 by 40 bps to 7.2%. PRODUCTION ACTIVITY The Empire Survey (blue line) indicated that conditions during 3Q13 improved modestly for the fourth straight month. The general business conditions index, at 6.3 in September, edged down two points from the prior month, but remained in positive territory. Indices for the six-month outlook conveyed increasingly widespread optimism, with the future general business conditions index rising three points in September to 40.6 (its highest level since spring of ). The Philadelphia Business Outlook (orange line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 75 50 25 0-25 -50 2000 2000 2001 2014 2015 indicated that general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment for September were all positive and higher than the previous month. Future activity indicators were significantly higher, suggesting improved optimism about growth. The survey s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 9.3 in August to 22.3 in September (the fourth consecutive month of a positive reading). The future general activity index increased from 38.9 to 58.2, exceeding its previous high since the end of the recession in. The Institute of Supply Management s Purchase Managers Index (green line) registered 56.2 for September, which was an increase of 80 bps from July. This represents growth for the 52 nd consecutive month in the overall economy. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in September the top among these including Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, and Food, Beverage, & Tobacco Products. 2001 03/01-11/01 03/01-11/01 Q/Q CHANGE (SAAR) Y/Y CHANGE ISM PMI Sources: Moody's Analytics, PNC Real Estate Market Research NY EMPIRE SURVEY PHILLY FED OUTLOOK 12/07-06/09 MANUFACTURING SURVEYS US REAL GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody's Analytics, PNC Economics Group (August ), PNC Real Estate Market Research 12/07-06/09 PNC Projections 4.1% 1.1% 1.8% 2.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% -0.3% -3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5%
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 3 Industrial production increased 0.6% in September, following a gain of 0.4% in August. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 2.3%. Manufacturing production edged up by 0.1%. The Fed s Industrial Production Index (shaded blue area) increased at an annualized rate of 2.3%. Manufacturing capacity utilization (orange line) fell 20 bps to 76.6%, and remains 200 bps below its historical average. According to PNC Economics, Industrial Production is expected to grow at 2.4% for the remainder of, and by 3.1% during 2014. INVENTORY AND TRANSPORT The Business Inventory to Sales ratio (blue line) shows a reading of 1.29 for 3Q13, which is unchanged from the previous quarter. The movement of freight and railroad activity serves as a useful gauge in assessing the economy s trajectory. Total U.S. intermodal volume for September was 1.0 million units, up 4.4% compared to a year ago. For 3Q13, total volume was 3.3 million units, which was an increase of 3.7% from 3Q12. Air freight (orange line), through August, declined 4.2% annually. The Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which is the largest container port in the nation, reported a yearover-year change of -6.5% for loaded containers for September. The Port of New York/New Jersey, the biggest on the Atlantic coast, experienced a decrease of 5.2% yearover-year for the same month. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index reflected a 1.3% annual gain during the quarter. TRADE Trade activity among major U.S. partners (Europe, Canada, Mexico, and China) remained flat in the third quarter. The trade deficit (green line) widened to $41.8B in 3Q13, up from $34.5B in 2Q13, and remained flat from the level a year ago. During the quarter, exports (blue line) decreased by $1.6B, while imports increased by $5.6B (orange line). 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 2000 2001 03/01-11/01 Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody's Analytics, PNC Real Estate Market Research 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Billions ($) 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 -300 2000 BUSINESS INVENTORY/SALES (R) AIR FREIGHT Y/Y % CHANGE (L) 2001 03/01-11/01 CAPACITY UTILIZATION (R) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y % Chg (L) EXPORTS TRADE BALANCE IMPORTS Source: U.S. Commerce Department, BOC, Moody's Analytics, PNC Real Estate Market Research 12/07-06/09 PRODUCTION ACTIVITY 90% 12/07-06/09 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BUSINESS INVENTORY SALES & AIR FREIGHT (ALL US CARRIERS) 1.20 12/07-6/09 Sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Department of Commerce, PNC Real Estate Market Research 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 US TRADE
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 4 INDUSTRIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS As discussed in the Economy Section, positive movements in key industrial space drivers (Production, Inventories, and Transport) have lead to a continued recovery of industrial market fundamentals. Please refer to the Appendix for additional data on PNC s 22 Footprint Markets, which represent approximately 37.0% of the nation s industrial space and include five of the nation s largest industrial markets. ABSORPTION Net absorption on a national basis totaled 40.8 msf in 3Q13, a 9.0 msf increase from the previous quarter and a 15.4 msf increase from one year prior. Quarterly industrial space demand (warehouse and flex-space) over the past year has continued to remain in positive territory, with consistent gains since the beginning of. The trend for both sectors has been positive since 2Q10. The nation s 10 largest industrial markets leased 55.9 msf through 3Q13, accounting for almost 38.0% of the national total. Large distribution markets that have shown exceptional performance include Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Atlanta, and the Inland Empire, while Houston, Detroit, the SF Bay Area, and Northern New Jersey all had healthy gains above 4.0 msf from the year prior. Markets with weaker performance include Philadelphia and Los Angeles. PNC s 22 footprint markets accounted for 50.4 msf of the nation s net absorption YTD for 3Q13. The largest industrial markets continued to register gains (Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit), while smaller metros such as Charlotte, Cincinnati, and Cleveland showed noticeable improvement around 3.0 msf. Markets that reflected little to no change include Dayton, Milwaukee, and Mobile. Birmingham and Philadelphia were the only footprint markets to experience negative absorption for the third quarter. msf 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles N. New Jersey Dallas/Ft Worth Atlanta SF Bay Area Detroit Houston Inland Empire 3Q13 3Q12 (0.2) (0.9) (1.1) Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research 1.2 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.8 INDUSTRIAL SPACE DEMAND 5.6 6.7 6.4 7.4 Flex Delivery Warehouse Delivery Flex Net Absorption Warehouse Net Absorption 8.7 9.2 9.7 3Q13 vs. 3Q12 YTD NET ABSORPTION 10 LARGEST MARKETS (2.5) 2.5 7.5 12.5
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 5 SUPPLY Continuing the trend from the second quarter, construction activity remained minimal throughout the nation. The number of square feet under construction increased since the last quarter from 63.3 msf to 70.8 msf, but this figure still equates to just 0.3% of inventory. PNC s footprint markets accounted for approximately 43.3% of the space underway, an increase of 180 bps from the prior quarter. The number of markets with more than 1.0 msf of construction activity decreased to 20, compared to 21 last quarter (Los Angeles dropped below this threshold). The PA I- 81/I-78/Lehigh Valley had the largest amount of space under construction at 8.3 msf. Pre-leasing decreased from last quarter by 270 bps to 52.9%. The nation s major industrial markets accounted for approximately 49.2% of the pipeline. Currently, most new construction is concentrated in Philadelphia, Dallas/Fort Worth, the Inland Empire, Houston, and Phoenix. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY (> 1.0 MSF) Market # Bldgs U/C (msf) % of Inv. % Leased Dallas/Ft Worth 24 7.3 0.9% 60.6% PA I-81 / I-78 / Lehigh Valley n/a 8.3 3.7% n/a Inland Empire 20 7.2 1.4% 26.8% Houston 73 5.4 1.0% 42.9% Philadelphia 16 8.1 0.8% 67.7% Phoenix 9 5.2 1.7% 65.5% Chicago n/a 3.7 0.3% n/a Columbus, OH n/a 0.1 0.0% n/a Central NJ n/a 3.6 1.1% n/a San Antonio 11 2.4 2.2% 98.7% Nashville 3 0.7 0.4% 99.6% Portland 4 1.9 1.0% 98.9% Washington DC n/a 1.9 0.7% n/a Seattle n/a 1.5 1.2% n/a Memphis 4 1.1 0.5% 39.8% Los Angeles 8 0.7 0.1% 10.2% Northern NJ n/a 1.2 0.4% n/a Orlando n/a 1.3 0.7% n/a Columbia, SC 1 1.2 2.1% 100.0% Silicon Valley n/a 1.1 0.4% n/a Kansas City n/a 2.3 0.9% n/a Indianapolis 5 2.1 0.7% 42.1% Minneapolis 2 0.3 0.1% 0.0% Denver 12 1.2 0.4% 57.7% Salt Lake City 2 0.1 0.0% 11.2% Atlanta 3 0.9 0.1% 53.6% US TOTAL 420 70.8 0.3% 52.9% Source: Cassidy Turley; Colliers; CoStar; Cushman & Wakefield; Jones Lang LaSalle; Newmark Grubb Knight Frank; PNC Real Estate Market Research During the quarter, there were roughly 19.7 msf of starts, up 4.9 msf from the previous quarter. The largest project to break ground during 3Q13, according to CoStar, was the 672K sf Pinnacle Business Center in Chicago s South I-55 Corridor Submarket. Completion of the building is scheduled for first quarter 2014. For 3Q13, CoStar data indicated that deliveries totaled 19.0 msf. Completions by building size improved from the last quarter. Mid-sized buildings (100,000 499,999 sf) constituted 30.2% of the space and were 66.5% leased (compared to 49.9% last quarter), while large buildings (>500,000 sf) comprised 26.8% of space and were 62.6% leased (27.6% for 2Q13). The largest delivery to the market for the quarter was the Helen of Troy Building, a 1.2 msf industrial distribution building (100.0% preleased) located in Memphis DeSoto Submarket.
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 6 VACANCY The national industrial (flex-space and warehouse) vacancy rate continued to improve in 3Q13. It ended the quarter at 8.4%, down 20 bps sequentially and 80 bps annually. The national rate is now 200 bps below this cycle s 10.4% peak and only 40 bps above its low. Warehouse (blue line) decreased by 20 bps from the previous quarter and moved down 80 bps from the prior year to 7.9%, while flexspace (orange line) decreased 30 bps and 90 bps, respectively, to 12.0%. The number of markets with improved vacancy slipped slightly during the quarter. Of the 142 industrial markets that we monitor, 113 had lower vacancy rates than a year ago (down from 117 in 2Q13). Small markets (<100 msf of inventory) accounted for 18 of the 29 markets with higher 3Q13 vacancy rates. However, the average small market vacancy rate was only 10 bps above the national rate, which was unchanged from last quarter. 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 9.6% The nation s 10 largest industrial markets 10.0% had an average vacancy rate 20 bps below the Detroit 11.6% 5.3% national rate, an improvement of 10 bps from Houston 5.3% the previous quarter. While the major 6.3% Inland Empire 7.6% markets had a lower vacancy rate from a year ago, Philadelphia s rate was higher for the Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research second consecutive quarter. In addition, all markets improved sequentially, with the exception of Houston, which saw a vacancy rate increase of 20 bps. Flex-Space Warehouse The average weighted vacancy rate within PNC s 22 footprint markets was 9.2%, down 25 bps sequentially and 81 bps annually. The largest quarterly declines were posted by Columbus and Detroit, which dropped 100 bps to 8.5% and 70 bps to 10.0%, respectively. Columbus has repeated its downward movement in vacancy for the second consecutive quarter, and its vacancy rate is now only 20 bps above the national average. Markets that continue to struggle include Dayton and Mobile, with vacancy rates above the 13.0% mark, despite Dayton have a 26 bps drop since last quarter. The healthier markets with vacancies below the national average continue to be found in the Midwest, such as St. Louis, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and Chicago, along with those found in the Ohio Valley region such as Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles N. New Jersey Dallas/Ft Worth Atlanta SF Bay Area 3Q13 3Q12 5.0% 5.3% INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RATES 7.8% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8% 9.2% 9.04% 9.2% 9.3% 10.3% 3Q13 vs 3Q12 VACANCY RATES 10 LARGEST MARKETS 11.6% 12.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 7 RENTS The average industrial (flex-space and warehouse) rent continued its upward trend, having grown for the eighth consecutive quarter. However, it remains approximately 9.6% below its prior peak (compared to 11.0% last quarter). This quarter, it rose $0.08/sf (1.5%) sequentially and $0.23/sf (4.2%) annually to $5.72/sf. From the prior quarter, flex-space rent increased to $11.00/sf, with rent growth moderating from 2Q13 s 1.0% to 1.5%. Rents for warehouse space followed a similar trend, with rent growth increasing 0.8% to 1.2%, ending the quarter at $5.00/sf from 2Q13 s $4.94. $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Flex-Space Rent/SF Warehouse Rent/SF Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research INDUSTRIAL RENTAL RATES During the quarter, all of the nation s top ten industrial markets experienced annual rental rate growth. The smallest increase, as with the last quarter, was Philadelphia at 1.4%. The San Francisco Bay Area had the largest increase at 9.4%, and the metro s average rent of $10.98 remains well above the national figure of $5.31. Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles N. New Jersey Dallas/Ft Worth Atlanta The average rent in PNC s footprint grew SF Bay Area 9.4% about 60 bps slower than the national rate, Detroit 3.8% growing 0.6% to $4.59/sf, an increase of $0.03/sf from the previous quarter. The footprint market with the biggest increase Houston Inland Empire 5.0% 4.8% was Raleigh/Durham, which grew by 3.1% to 0.0% 2.0% $5.38/sf. The largest decreases were in Sources: CoStar, PNC Real Estate Market Research Cincinnati and Nashville, which declined by 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively. The trends in Pittsburgh and Mobile reversed from last quarter, as both grew by 0.7% to $5.19/sf and by 0.3% to $4.06/sf, respectively. 1.4% 2.3% 3Q13 Rent Y/Y % Change 10 Largest Industrial Markets National Average: 3.3% 2.8% 3.8% 5.9% 7.2%
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 8 TRANSACTION VOLUME/PRICING Institutional quality sales volume, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data, increased from 2Q13 s $8.2 billion ($68/sf) to $12.6 billion ($69/sf), which represented an 81.3% annual increase. Warehouse properties continued to account for a majority of this quarter s volume of $5.7 billion, up 26.1% from a year ago. As with the previous quarter, all three of the industrial Moody s/rca Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased sharply during 3Q13. The all industrial markets (blue line), increased 4.6% to 133.4, while the major markets (green line) improved 9.0% to 153.8, and non-major markets (grey line) posted a gain of 1.3% to 119.4. On a regional basis, RCA reported that the Midwest and Southeast recorded 75.0% and 40.0% gains in volume through 3Q13, respectively, while investment in the Mid-Atlantic was down 15.0%. $ Billions $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Volume > $5 million CPPI - All Ind. Mkts CPPI - Major Ind. Mkts CPPI - Non-Major Ind. Mkts Note: Major Industrial Markets are Boston, Chicago, Washington DC, New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles Sources: Real Capital Analytics, PNC Real Estate Market Research 10.00% INDUSTRIAL CPPI & TRANSACTION VOLUME 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Capitalization Rates Industrial Warehouse - United States Through Third Quarter The average warehouse cap rate remained flat in 3Q13, at 6.8%. Flex/R&D property cap rates declined 17 bps this quarter to 7.6%. Cap rate declines were more evident on a YOY basis, with warehouse properties declining 35 bps and flex/r&d properties declining 29 bps, respectively. Sequentially, total industrial volume was $12.6B this quarter, a 54.0% increase from 2Q13 and an 81.3% increase YOY. 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 7.62% - RCA Warehouse 24 bps, -3.2% 6.22% - PwC Warehouse 18 bps, +2.9% 6.50% - RERC Warehouse 10 bps, +1.5% 5.70% - NCREIF Industrial 3 bps, +0.5% Portfolio transactions contributed $6.2B to 3Q13 volume, and have totaled $10.8B yearto-date, approximately 60% ahead of last year, as reported by RCA. In 3Q13 alone, ten portfolio transactions exceeded $100.0M in value, including a large entity deal, the merger of REITs Spirit and Cole (SRC), which included many single-tenant industrial properties. The top transactions for the quarter include KTR Capital Partners acquiring Northwest Corporate Park in Kent, WA for $170.0 million ($61 psf). Additionally in the West market, TMG Partners bought the West Tasman Campus in San Jose, CA for $153.8 million ($190 psf). 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% Note: NCREIF data represents current value industrial cap rates. Sources: PwC Real Estate Investor Survey, Real Capital Analytics, RERC, NCREIF, PNC Real Estate Market Research Note: NCREIF data represents current value industrial cap rates. Sources: PwC Real Estate Investor Survey, Real Capital Analytics, RERC, NCREIF, PNC Real Estate Market Research Capitalization Rates Industrial Flex/R&D - United States Through Third Quarter 7.83% - PwC Flex/R&D 32 bps, +4.1% 7.51% - RCA Flex 27 bps, +3.6% 7.70% - RERC Flex 0 bps, 0.0% 7.40% - RERC R&D 10 bps, +1.4% 5.70% - NCREIF Industrial 3 bps, +0.5%
CONTINUED RECOVERY IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 9 DISTRESS & DELINQUENCIES During 3Q13, the amount of distressed (Troubled and REO) industrial real estate declined by approximately $0.4 billion to $11.2 billion. Among the core property types, industrial represented only 7.4% (the lowest) of the remaining $151.2 billion in total outstandings. While industrial workouts (Restructured and Resolved) improved to 61.2%, this figure still trails the all property type average of 62.8%. Billions ($) RCA data indicated that four markets $5 (Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles) accounted for nearly 24.0% of the nation s $- outstanding distressed industrial property, a decrease of 100 bps from the previous quarter. The tertiary southeast markets represented an additional 5.4%, a decrease of 80 bps sequentially. $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 Resolved: Restructured: REO: Troubled: Sources: Real Capital Analytics, PNC Real Estate Market Research 3Q13 INDUSTRIAL CUMULATIVE DISTRESS VOLUME $13.1 Billion $ 4.5 Billion $ 4.8 Billion $ 6.4 Billion As reported by Trepp, the overall CMBS delinquency rate declined for the fourth consecutive month and ended the quarter at 8.1%, a decrease of 30 bps sequentially and down 190 bps annually. During the quarter, the industrial CMBS delinquency rate rose approximately 8 bps to 11.6%. Despite this high number, it is still below the figure of 12.2% from the year prior. According to RCA, new instances of distress involving industrial properties continue to slow, and in 3Q13 were less than a third of levels a year ago. By year-end, close to 65% of the $29.0B of industrial loans that soured this cycle will have been resolved. While CMBS issuance is on track to double this year, its share of industrial financings declined, as lenders from all sectors have stepped up their activity. However, significant gains in the share of lending by national banks likely reflect conduit originations not yet securitized. Regional banks are increasing their market share and may well account for a quarter of industrial mortgage originations soon.
APPENDIX PNC FOOTPRINT MARKETS - INDUSTRIAL 3Q13 Market Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net Absorption YTD Deliveries U/C Rent Total RBA (msf) Direct (msf) Total (msf) 3Q13 % Q/Q bps Y/Y bps (msf) (msf) (msf) 3Q13 Q/Q % Y/Y % Atlanta 653.6 73.1 75.9 11.6% -33-78 8.7 2.8 0.9 $3.88-0.1% 2.8% Baltimore 229.4 22.0 22.3 9.7% 21-64 1.6 1.2 0.8 $5.82 1.4% 4.0% Birmingham 131.3 11.4 11.4 8.7% 35-2 -0.6 0.1 0.6 $3.48 0.4% 1.0% Central New Jersey 286.2 26.8 27.2 9.5% -37-63 2.2 0.8 1.0 $5.35-0.3% 4.4% Charlotte 299.6 31.9 32.7 10.9% -27-141 3.1 0.5 0.1 $3.90-0.2% 3.3% Chicago 1,147.9 98.3 101.5 8.8% -22-143 9.7 2.9 2.6 $5.11 1.0% 3.8% Cincinnati 294.7 23.1 23.9 8.1% -58-128 3.0 0.3 0.9 $3.40-1.1% -0.9% Cleveland 478.3 39.7 40.1 8.4% -32-102 3.2 0.1 0.0 $3.61 0.1% 2.0% Columbus 254.0 21.2 21.6 8.5% -100-174 4.4 2.2 0.1 $3.21 2.0% 3.6% Dayton 116.3 15.7 15.7 13.5% -26 58 0.3 0.3 0.0 $3.27 0.4% 2.4% Detroit 556.1 55.4 55.6 10.0% -70-165 4.3 0.3 0.4 $4.49 1.3% 3.8% Indianapolis 307.4 21.4 21.9 7.1% -11 71 1.0 1.6 2.1 $3.99 0.9% 1.2% Louisville 180.4 13.5 13.9 7.7% -61-271 0.4 0.4 0.7 $3.45 1.7% -0.9% Milwaukee 311.7 22.0 22.1 7.1% 23-16 0.0 0.1 0.3 $4.23-0.1% -1.3% Mobile 27.7 3.6 3.6 13.0% 98-9 0.0 0.0 0.0 $4.06 0.3% -0.2% Nashville 195.3 17.5 17.7 9.1% 54-50 2.2 1.4 0.7 $3.86-0.4% 1.3% Northern New Jersey 520.8 40.8 42.6 8.2% -45-59 3.4 0.2 2.1 $6.11 0.2% 2.4% Philadelphia 1,014.4 90.6 92.8 9.2% -15 11-0.2 0.6 8.1 $4.52 0.6% 1.4% Pittsburgh 172.5 13.4 13.6 7.9% -4-107 0.8 0.2 0.7 $5.19 0.7% -0.3% Raleigh/Durham 120.1 11.0 11.8 9.9% 19-70 0.4 0.1 0.1 $5.38 3.1% 10.4% St. Louis 262.6 21.0 21.3 8.1% 1-54 1.6 0.5 0.7 $3.95-0.2% -0.4% Washington, DC 211.1 21.1 22.2 10.5% -33-80 1.0 1.2 1.1 $9.43 1.2% 4.0% PNC FOOTPRINT TOTALS / WTD AVGS 7,771.4 694.4 711.5 9.2% -25-81 50.4 17.7 24.0 $4.59 0.6% 2.5% US TOTALS / WTD AVGS 20,863.6 1,687.4 1,730.4 8.3% -18-87 148.0 61.3 75.1 $5.31 1.2% 3.8% Note: Due to differences in CoStar's methodology, national figures differ from the long-term historical ones presented in this report. Top 10 National Industrial Markets Are Italicized Sources: CoStar; PNC Real Estate Market Research