Investing in the UK for Income The Merchants Trust PLC The Retirement Money Conference 12 December 2017 www.merchantstrust.co.uk Simon Gergel, CIO UK Equities, Allianz Global Investors
Disclaimer This is no recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any particular security. Any security mentioned above will not necessarily be comprised in the portfolio by the time this document is disclosed or at any other subsequent date. Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer and/or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The data used is derived from various sources, and assumed to be correct and reliable, but it has not been independently verified; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use, unless caused by gross negligence or wilful misconduct. The conditions of any underlying offer or contract that may have been, or will be, made or concluded, shall prevail. Investment trusts are quoted companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Their share prices are determined by factors including the balance of supply and demand in the market, which means that the shares may trade below (at a discount to) or above (at a premium to) the underlying net asset value. A trust s Net Asset Value (NAV) is calculated as available shareholders funds divided by the number of shares in issue, with shareholders funds taken to be the net value of all the company s assets after deducting liabilities. In line with current industry best practice NAVs are now shown that take into account the fair value of debt. This means NAVs are calculated after allowing for the valuation of debt at fair value or current market price, rather than at final repayment value. NAVs with debt at market value provide a more realistic impact of the cost of debt, and thus a more realistic discount. It is the capital NAV that is shown, which excludes any income. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. You should not make any assumptions on the future on the basis of performance information. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market fluctuations and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This investment trust charges 65% of its annual management fee to the capital account and 35% to revenue. This could lead to a higher level of income but capital growth will be constrained as a result. Merchants seeks to enhance returns for its shareholders through gearing in the form of long-term debentures. Gearing can boost the Trust s returns when investments perform well, though losses can be magnified when investments lose value. You should be aware that this Trust may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you could suffer substantial capital loss. Derivatives are used to manage the trust efficiently. Covered call options are written to supplement the income generation of the portfolio. This may lead to an opportunity cost if options are exercised. All data source Allianz Global Investors as at 31 March 2017 unless otherwise stated. This is a marketing communication issued by Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company with limited liability, incorporated in Germany, with its registered office at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 42-44, D-60323 Frankfurt/M, registered with the local court Frankfurt/M under HRB 9340, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (www.bafin.de). This communication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to ensure the impartiality of investment (strategy) recommendations and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing before publication of such recommendations. Allianz Global Investors GmbH has established a branch in the United Kingdom, Allianz Global Investors GmbH, UK branch, 199 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3TY, which is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (www.fca.org.uk). The Merchants Trust PLC is incorporated in England and Wales. (Company registration no. 28276). Web site: www.merchantstrust.co.uk 2
Beware the FANGed BAT 3
Disruption The market speaks a clear message on FANGs & BATTs USD Market Cap Path of FANG, BATTs and a broad global equity universe, October 2014=100 +78% FANG +106% BATTs +16% Global Universe Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, AllianzGI Economics and Strategy, as at Sept 28th 2017. 4
Equity Markets are Expensive Where can people invest? Bond yields and interest rates are low Source: Exane BNP Paribas Research. Past performance is no reliable for future results 5
There is still hope! Not all companies are expensive More than average companies trade on low valuations Source: Exane BNP Paribas Research. Past performance is no reliable for future results 6
The Solution Active Stock picking can find attractive opportunities There is no such thing as passive investment There are more indices than large cap stocks Bernstein Research Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: AllianzGI, as at 9 May 2017. 7
Back to basics Dividends make up most of the long run return Compounding effects of dividend yield dominates returns in the long term (1970 Q4 2015) Source: SG Cross Asset research/equity Quant, MSCI, Thomson Financial Datastream. Past performance is no reliable for future results 8
Income Investing Understand A high yield strategy has delivered strong long-term performance Cumulative return from low and high yielders within the Top 100 UK stocks, 1900 2009 Act Target stocks yielding at least in line with the market within 18 months* Yield alone is never a sufficient reason for buying a share Purchase/sale driven by total return considerations No automatic sale if yield drops below market level *In exceptional cases we may buy a share with a yield below average if the share/sector represents both: a) a large part of the benchmark, and b) we believe the share/sector could perform well. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future resu lts. Source: Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, Triumph of the Optimists, Princeton University Press, 2002, and updates by the authors. 9
The Merchants Trust Highlights High yield, value based UK equity fund A genuine high yield UK equity fund. 35 years of dividend growth, significant reserves. Active, high conviction, value driven portfolio. Strong performance track record. Significant resources of Allianz Global Investors. Experienced, independent board. Objective: To provide an above average level of income and income growth, together with long term growth of capital, through a policy of investing mainly in higher yielding UK Large Cap Companies. Low management fee. Grassroots SM Research is a division within the Allianz Global Investors group of companies that commissions investigative research for asset-management professionals. Research data used to generate Grassroots SM Research reports are received from reporters and field force investigators who work as independent, third party research providers, supplying research that is paid for by commissions gen erated by trades executed on behalf of clients. *Source: AllianzGI, as at 17 March 2017. 10
Stock Example Bovis Fundamentally attractive assets, depressed profitability and valuation, positive thematic environment Fundamentals Builder of c.3,500 homes p.a. 4 year+ landbank. 39% from cheaper strategic land 78% South England biased (not London). 84% Greenfield 86% 3-5 bed houses Net cash on balance sheet New management 2017 (ex Galliford Try) recruited to turn around business Source: Bloomberg, as at 18 April 2017. Past performance is no reliable for future results The cheapest UK housebuilder, reflecting depressed profitability Figure 1 PTNAV (x) vs. ROACE (%) 2017E Source: Barclays Research estimates. Valuation Shares far cheaper than sector (see chart) due to depressed profits. p/e 10.5x 2018, yield 4.8%, 1.1x book value Takeover approaches from Redrow and Galliford Try support land bank valuation Themes + Recovery: Depressed profits due to poor quality control and execution new management + Growth: Structural shortage of UK housing, improving land availability + Supportive policy : Helpto-Buy, low interest rates - Cyclical: Sensitive to consumer confidence, economic cycle - Execution risk: poor quality / service, availability & cost of labour / materials 11
Dividends 35 years of rising dividends 5.1% yield, fully covered by earnings in FY 2016 Reserves built up in good years to offset pressures in difficult years Revenue reserves of 22.8p available = 94% of full year dividend Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: AllianzGI, as at 6 September 2017. 12
Active Management: New Holdings/Complete Disposals First half 2017/18 Active management taking advantages of opportunities Bought undervalued companies and recovery situations Sold out of companies on full valuations or where view changed New Holding Rationale Total Disposals Rationale Bovis Homes Carnival Megitt Morgan Advanced Materials Recovery Situations Aviva British American Tobacco Full valuation WPP National Express Undervalued Hostelworld Mothercare Change of investment view 13
Portfolio Positioning - Key Portfolio Themes This is no recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any particular security. A stock mentioned as example above will not necessarily be comprised in the portfolio by the time this document is disclosed or at any other subsequent date. 14
Different to Other UK Equity Income Funds Sector Views Merchants Trust Stock Views Merchants Trust Underweight Overweight Underweight Overweight Tobacco -5.8 7.1 Financial Services British American Tobacco -4.6 3.2 GlaxoSmithKline Personal Goods -2.5 4.0 Aerospace & Defence AstraZeneca -2.6 3.0 UBM Banks -2.4 3.9 Construction & Materials Vodafone Group -2.4 2.9 Standard Life Aberdeen Household Goods & Construct -2.1 2.9 Gas, Water & Multi Utilities Unilever -2.1 2.5 Hansteen Mining -1.4 1.9 Electricity Glencore -1.8 2.2 Legal & General -8.0-4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 % position relative to FTSE All- Share -8.0-4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 % position relative to FTSE All- Share Strong valuation discipline Favour recovery situations Specific stock selection opportunities in: - Financial services - Aerospace and defence - Construction and materials Limited exposure to expensive defensives This is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any particular security. Source: AllianzGI, as at 31 October 2017. 15
Conclusion: Why The Merchants Trust A genuine high yield UK equity fund. 35 years of dividend growth, significant reserves. For further information: www.merchantstrust.co.uk STEPHANIE HOCKING: 020 3246 7176 stephanie.hocking@allianzgi.com Active, high conviction, value driven portfolio. Strong performance track record. Significant resources of Allianz Global Investors. Experienced, independent board. Low management fee. 16