INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Asia remain to be the center of the world economic growth, particularly Southeast Asia and East Asia, which held 7.5% growth in 2005, compared to the economic growth in developed countries such as USA, Japan and European which merely reached 2.5% (Table 3). It is estimated that the Asian economy will expand by 7.4% with China as its main driver (9.3%), while the growth in the developed countries will increase by 2.9% with US to be its main contributor (%). Table 3: The Growth of Macro Economy in Asian Countries in 2005 and the estimation of 2006 GDP Growth Inflation Trade Balance (% of GDP) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 Asia China Hong Kong India Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam 7.5 9.9 7.3 8.1 4.0 5.3 5.1 6.4 4.1 8.4 7.4 9.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.1 6.5 4.0 8.0 8.3 4.2 4.1 7.0 5.2 7.5 4.1 5.5 1-15.2 28.4 - - 6.0 9.7 0.7 1 2 - -2.9 - - 1.0-4.1-2.8-6.0 - - - - -1.0 - - - 6.0-3.0 - Industrial 2.5 2.9 - - - Countries USA -6.4-7.3 - Japan - -5.3 - Euro area - - - - World 2.9 - - -1.9-1.9 Source: ADB and Citigroup (estimation of 2006) Asia as the center of economic growth has certainly brought about a great impact on Indonesia s international trade, intra-trades as well as inter-trade, export and import,
though the latter is strongly dependent on the growth of domestic economic activities. Further, export growth is also dependent on the economic growth of destination markets as well as the production capacity in the country. In other words, the rapid growth of global economy, particularly in Asia, is not often followed by a sharp export growth of Indonesia. Latest data from BPS indicated that the export value in January 2006, including oil/gas and non-oil/gas each totaled US$ 7.56 billion and US$ 5.73 billion respectively, whereas import value each totaled US$4.39 billion and US$8 billion respectively. Thus, the foreign trade balance of Indonesia for the month of January 2006, with and without oil/gas enjoyed a surplus of each US$ 7 billion and US$ 2.55 billion respectively. Meaning that, the export, with and without oil/gas each increased by 26% and 16.83% compared to those in January 2005. The hike in export value mainly attributable to the increased in the export value of mining sector from US$ 4 billion to US$ 7 billion. Meanwhile, the import value in January 2006, with and without oil/gas, improved by 6.49% and 9% respectively, compared to the same period in the previous year. During the month of January 2006, the growth of import was mainly dominated by the import of raw materials amounting to US$3 billion or improved by 1% compare to the same period in 2005 totaled US$ 8 billion. Yet, judging from the performance back in the year of 2000, the total export value (oil/gas and non-oil/gas) had once trimmed from around US$65.4 billion in 2000 to US$ 57.4 billion in 2001, but kept growing ever since that period. During the same period, foreign trade balance had also dropped from US$ 25 million to US$ 2 million (Figure 2). The growth of Indonesia s foreign trade balance based on oil/gas and non-oil/gas sectors during the last one decade may be seen in Table 4. Oil/gas sector maintain to be the prominent factor as the source of surplus to foreign trade balance of Indonesia. Without the role oil/gas sector, the average surplus of foreign trade balance per year was lower compared to the surplus with oil/gas, even suffered a deficit in certain years. According to the goods category based on SITC, industrial products has been the second important export products for Indonesia, other that fuel, lubricating oil and so forth. Especially the export of machineries and transportation means has spurred significantly
from around US$ billion in 1994 to an almost US$ 14 billion in 2005. Export value of industrial products based on its materials has also improved, though in a relatively insignificant growth from US$9.5 billion to US$ 1 billion (Table 5). Figure 2: The Trend of Growth of Foreign Trade Balance (NP), Export (X) and Import (M), Indonesia, 2000-2005 (million US$). 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NP X M Source: BPS. Table 4. Trade Balance of Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas, Indonesia, 1994- January 2006 (billion US$) Year Including Oil and Gas Without Oil and Gas Export Import Export Import 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan.2006 4 45.4 49.8 5 48.9 48.7 6 56.3 57.2 6 7 85.7 31.9 4 42.9 41.7 27.3 24.0 3 36 31.3 3 46.5 57.7 3 34.95 38.1 4 48 38.9 47.8 4 45.1 47.4 55.94 66.4 5.7 29.6 37.7 39.3 37.8 2 2 27.5 25.5 24.8 24.9 34.8 4 Source: BPS
Further, Table 6 showed that plywood, ready to wear clothes, and other textile products (TPT) are among the industrial products of Indonesia, to be the leading export products from the manufacturing sector. Electricity utilities have the potential to be the leading export product from Indonesia though the average export value per year is relatively small. Table 5. The Growth of Export Value based on Commodities Classification (SITC), Indonesia, 1994-Jan.2006 (billion US$) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total export 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan.2006 3.3 3.97 4.6 4 3 3 3 0.02 3 5.1 4.3 4.2 5.3 6.4 9.0 1 1 12.9 1 9.4 1 15.7 14.3 13.9 15.7 18.6 2 3.0 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.8 2.97 4.0 9.5 1 1 9.7 8.8 11.0 1 1 1 1 12.9 1 4.6 5.3 1 9.1 9.8 9.8 1 1 1.01 7.8 8.9 6.98 6.7 8.2 9.95 9.3 8.2 8.5 9.2 1 8 0.05 6.6 8.0 4 5 4 45.4 49.8 5 48.9 48.7 6 56.3 57.2 6 7 85.7 Note: 0= Food Material & Live Animals; 1= Beverages & Tobacco; 2=Raw Material; 3=Fuel, Polish Material & etc; 4=Vegetable and Animal Oil/Fats; 5=Chemicals; 6=Industrial Products based on material; 7=Machineries & Transportation; 8= Other Industrial Products; 9=Others special commodities & transaction. Source: BPS
Table 6. The Growth of Industrial Products Export Value, 1996-Jan.2006 (billion US$) Products 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan.2006 1. Processed Woods -Plywood 1.99 1.7 -Sawdust 0.02 -Others 2. Metal products -Tin -Aluminum -Others 0.003 0.7 3. Clothes 2.9 3.9 4.04 4.97 -Other TPT 2.98 4. Processed Rubber 1.99 1.3 2.95 5. Animal Foods 6. Essential Oil 7. Coconut Oil 2.5 8. Fats Acid 0.03 9. Electricity Tools 1.7 10. Processed Foods 6 6 6 1.0 11. Cement 0.02 0.04 12. Plaiting Products 0.04 13. Chemicals 0.7 1.01 9 1.3 1.3 1.95 14. Fertilizer 15.Leather & its products 16. Paper & its products 6 1.97 17. Others 1 14.2 14.0 12.8 18.2 15.96 16.2 16.4 19.3 2 TOTAL 3 34.99 34.6 33.3 4 37.7 38.7 4 48.7 55.6