Determinants of Female Labour Force Participation Dynamics: Evidence From 2000 & 2007 Indonesia Family Life Survey Diahhadi Setyonaluri PhD Student Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute (ADSRI) Australian National University Paper presented at NATSEM HDR Workshop, 13 September 2012
2 Introduction Female s share of the total labour force is increasing, with more young women joining formal sectors between 1971-2000. Lower labour force participation rate of married women (compared to unmarried) due to age, presence of young children, and tendency of employers in formal sectors to hire young, single women. Other studies found a tendency for women to move to other type of employment that accommodate women s roles at work and home. This study explores the role of changing family status in determining women s labour force dynamics.
3 Literature Review Previous studies found strong effect of marital status, childbirths and presence of young children in reducing female s employment continuity Flexibility in part-time jobs reduces the incompatibility between work and childcare (Drobnic et al.,1999) Presence of adult women in the household reduce the negative effect of young children on women s work continuity (Cerruti, 2000) Family status is important, but not a sole determinant. Other factors, particularly education and previous job characteristics are also found to determine women s employment transitions (Taniguchi and Rosenfeld, 2002)
Data: Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2000 & 2007 Multilevel longitudinal survey (individual, household, community) fielded in 13 provinces*. Baseline sample (1993) was 7,224 households & 22,000 individuals, with 95% re-contact rate of original households (Strauss, 2004) IFLS 2000 & 2007 documents: Yearly retrospective work history that covers the period 1996-2007. Marriage, childbirths, migration, education histories. This study: Combine life histories from 2000 & 2007 IFLS into a long-format life history data Select women who have ever worked throughout 1996-2007 and were aged 21-49 years old in 2007. Note: *IFLS was fielded in 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2007. It was also fielded in 1998, with a selected sample from previous wave Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 4
Definitions of work & labour force participation in IFLS IFLS defined work as broadly includes formal and informal, full-time and part-time, and seasonal and yearround labour. For current employment, IFLS probes the labour force participation using several questions: work or not, job searching, try to work/help to earn income at least 1 hour, have a job/business but temporarily not working, work at family-owned business. In retrospective work history, IFLS collects information whether a respondent work or not in a particular year. Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 5
Method: Discrete Time Event History Analysis Dependent variable Labour Force Exit conditional probability of leaving the labour force, given that a woman was working from the beginning of spell. Labour Force Re-entry conditional probability of entering the labour force, given that a woman had left the workforce Measure Censor Dummy variable of 0 if a woman work 1 If a woman did not worked Women who were continuously working up to 2007 are censored at that point. Dummy variable of 0 if a woman did not work 1 If a woman worked Women who had left the labour force up to 2007 are censored at that point. Sample Women who were unmarried at the beginning of first work spell (n=2,204) Women who had left the labour force (n=1,125) Models are estimated with logistic regression (Singer and Willet, 2003) Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 6
Independent variables (family dynamics) Variable Measure Time- Varying? Exit Model Re-entry First marriage Single = 0 Had the first marriage = 1 Yes First birth Had no child = 0 Had the first birth = 1 Yes Family status 1. Unmarried 2. Married, no children 3. Married, 1 child 4. Married, 2+ children Yes Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 7
Independent variables (cont d) Migration Variable Education attainment Urban/rural Region Measure Whether had migrated during the work spell (reference: not migrated) Highest level education attained at the last survey (reference: no schooling/elementary) Whether live in urban or rural area during the spell (reference: rural) Whether live in Java or outside Java (reference: outside Java) Time- Varying? Age Age in years (continuous) Yes Employment of the last jobs 1. Self-employment (ref.) 2. Government workers - professionals, managers, clerical 3. Government workers - others 4. Private workers professionals, managers, clerical 5. Private workers manual, sales, service 6. Unpaid family workers 7. Casual workers Presence of other adult females Presence of females age 15 and older in the household where a woman reside (measured in 2000) (reference: no adult females in households) Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary Yes No Yes Yes No No 8
Descriptive Table 1. Mean age of events and duration of spells by working pattern Mean age and duration Working Pattern Continuous Interrupted Age at first marriage 24.7 22.3 Age at first birth 25.2 23.4 Age at start of work spell 21.6 19.1 Age at labour force exit n.a. 22.7 Age at labour force reentry n.a. 25.4 Duration of work spell 9.8 4.7 Duration of labour force break n.a. 2.9 Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 9
Table 2: Estimated coefficients from transition out of the labour force models Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 First marriage (0=never married; 1= had 1st marriage) 1.447*** 1.394*** 0.847*** First birth (0=never had a birth; 1=had 1st birth) 0.878*** 0.821*** 0.829*** Education (last survey) (ref: no schooling/elementary) Junior secondary 0.235** 0.215** Senior secondary 0.369*** 0.335*** Tertiary 0.382*** 0.315** Presence of other adult females (0=none 1=1+) -0.014-0.026 Previous employment (ref: self-employment) Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -1.560*** -1.467*** Government workers - others -0.947* -1.706* Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.529*** 0.339 Private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.982*** 0.463** Unpaid family workers 0.504*** 0.575*** Casual workers 0.381* -0.295 Interaction terms for first marriage and: government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.053 government workers - others 1.171 private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.37 private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.965*** unpaid family workers -0.275 casual workers 1.169*** *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; ***p<0.1 *) These models are estimated using logit regression that includes random effects since rho s value for model 1 to model 3 is more than zero. **) Model 2 and 3 are also controlled by age, migration, urban/rural, and Java or Non-Java residences. Source: IFLS 2000 & 2007, authors calculation 10
Predicted probability margins of previous employment type and marital status of women *Predicted margins with 95% confidence interval. *Interaction between last job status and marital status is significant at 1% Source: IFLS 2000 & 2007, author s calculation based on the result of model with interaction estimation Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 11
Table 3: Estimated coefficients of transitions back into the labour force Family status (ref: never married) Variables Model 1 Model 2 Married - no children -0.566*** -0.553*** Married - 1 child -0.627*** -0.592*** Married - 2+ children -0.165-0.067 Education (last survey) (ref: no schooling/elementary) Junior secondary -0.015 Senior secondary -0.011 Tertiary 0.392** Presence of other adult females (0=none 1=1+) -0.003 Previous employment (ref: self-employment) Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.704** Government workers - others -0.645 Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.938*** Private workers - manual, sales/service workers -0.825*** Unpaid family workers -0.660*** Casual workers 0.048 *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; ***p<0.1 *) These models are estimated using pooled logit regression since the rho value from the estimation results using logit regression that include the random effects is equal to zero. The models are estimated using individual ID code (PIDLINK) as a cluster variable. **)Model 2 is also controlled by age, migration, urban rural and Java-non Java residences. Source: IFLS 2000 & 2007, authors calculation 12
Discussion This study confirms that family status is important, but not a sole determinant of female labour force dynamics: Stronger impact of marital status than childbearing on labour force exit indicates that decision to have a child is jointly determined with decision to marry. Effect of marital status on labour force exit is stronger for blue collar private workers, indicate low job protection, or women choose this type of work for a transit before marriage. Positive effect of education on labour force exit and reentry indicate high-educational homogamy, higher value of child s quality, better access to job information. Background - Research Question - Data - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 13
Feedbacks: diahhadi.setyonaluri@anu.edu.au Source: http://www.antarafoto.com/bisnis/v1299825605/peran-ganda-perempuan 14
In Indonesia, females adjust their labour force participation during childbearing years Figure 1a & 1b. Age-specific LFPR for males and females, Indonesia 1980-2007 Males Females Source: Sakernas 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000; author s calculation using Sakernas August 2007 data tape Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 15
16 Occupation: Professionals, managers & clerical workers Scientist, engineers, air force & navy, medical doctors, vets, medical workers, statisticians, mathematicians, economist, accountants, lawyers, lecturers, religion related workers, journalists, writers, athletes, artists, art workers. Legislatives, managers. Government clerks; bookkeeping, accounting & auditing clerks, billing & posting clerks, payroll & timekeeping clerks, tellers, transportation & telecommunications operators.
17 Occupation: Sales & service workers Retail, insurance, land & building, and manufacturing products sales owners, managers, supervisors & workers; Food preparation & serving workers, building & cleaning workers, maid & housekeeping cleaners; personal care workers; security guards. Occupation: Manual workers Constructions & extraction workers; installation, maintenance & repair workers; mechanics; production workers, assemblers; transportation & material moving workers; agriculture workers.
18 Formal Jobs Self-employed with permanent workers Government workers Private workers Informal Jobs Unpaid family workers Self employed Self employed with unpaid/temporary workers Casual workers (agriculture & nonagriculture)
Limitations of the data (1) IFLS collected retrospective work history for 5 or 9 years prior to a survey, not from the start of the first job. Start year of work in the work history might not be the start year of the first job. Respondents were women aged 15+ at the time of survey, not at the first year of work history. Each respondent has a different start year/age, making a cohort comparison is difficult. Overlap years which potentially generate a seam bias problem. Retrospective variables are limited. Survey Year 1993 1997* 2000 2007 Year Observed in Work History 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 19
Consequences of data limitations Left-censoring in event history analysis: Actual start year of the first job is unknown It can be linked to year starting first full-time employment, however there are gaps between start year and first year being observed in WH Cannot examine important effect of husband s income and presence of other adult females in household. Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 20
Table 2: Estimated coefficients from transition out of the labour force models First marriage Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 (0=never married; 1= had 1 st marriage) 1.447*** 1.394*** 0.847*** First birth (0=never had a birth; 1=had 1 st birth 0.878*** 0.821*** 0.829*** Education (last survey) (ref: no schooling/elementary) Junior secondary 0.235** 0.215** Senior secondary 0.369*** 0.335*** Tertiary 0.382*** 0.315** Migration (0 never migrated 1=migrate) 0.696*** 0.695*** Urban/rural (0=rural 1=urban) -0.02-0.018 Region (0=non Java 1=Java) -0.335*** -0.348*** Presence of other adult females (0=none 1=1+) Age -0.085*** -0.071*** -0.067*** Previous employment (ref: self-employment) Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -1.560*** -1.467*** Government workers - others -0.947* -1.706* Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.529*** 0.339 Private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.982*** 0.463** Unpaid family workers 0.504*** 0.575*** Casual workers 0.381* -0.295 Interaction terms for first marriage and: government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.053 government workers - others 1.171 private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.37 private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.965*** unpaid family workers -0.275 casual workers 1.169*** *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; ***p<0.1 *) These models are estimated using logit regression that includes random effects since rho s value for model 1 to model 5 is more than zero. Source: IFLS 2000 & 2007, authors calculation 21
Table 3: Estimated coefficients of transitions back into the labour force Variables Model 1 Model 2 Family status (ref: never married) Married - no children -0.566*** -0.553*** Married - 1 child -0.627*** -0.592*** Married - 2+ children -0.165-0.067 Education (last survey) (ref: no schooling/elementary) Junior secondary -0.015 Senior secondary -0.011 Tertiary 0.392** Migration (0 never migrated 1=migrate) 0.685*** Urban/rural (0=rural 1=urban) -0.066 Region (0=non Java 1=Java) 0.133 Presence of other adult females (0=none 1=1+) -0.003 Age 0.007 Previous employment (ref: self-employment) Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.704** Government workers - others -0.645 Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical -0.938*** Private workers - manual, sales/service workers -0.825*** Unpaid family workers -0.660*** Casual workers 0.048 *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; ***p<0.1 *) These models are estimated using pooled logit regression since the rho value from the estimation results using logit regression that include the random effects is equal to zero. The models are estimated using individual ID code (PIDLINK) as a cluster variable. Source: IFLS 2000 & 2007, authors calculation 22
Descriptive statistics of independent variables in transition out of the labour force model Variable Mean SD Minimum Maximum Marital status 0.339 0.473 0 1 Had first birth 0.059 0.236 0 1 Education no schooling/elementary 0.240 0.427 0 1 junior secondary 0.200 0.400 0 1 senior secondary 0.356 0.479 0 1 Tertiary 0.204 0.403 0 1 Migration status 0.050 0.218 0 1 Urban/rural 0.487 0.500 0 1 Island 0.597 0.491 0 1 Last employment characteristics Self-employment 0.122 0.327 0 1 Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.057 0.231 0 1 Government workers - others 0.017 0.131 0 1 Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.130 0.336 0 1 Private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.417 0.493 0 1 Unpaid family workers 0.209 0.407 0 1 Casual workers 0.047 0.212 0 1 Presence of other females 0.593 0.491 0 1 Age 24.083 6.072 11 49 23
Descriptive statistics of independent variables in transition into the labour force model Variable Mean SD Minimum Maximum Family status Never married 0.267 0.442 0 1 Married without children 0.148 0.355 0 1 Married, with 1 child 0.521 0.500 0 1 Married, with 2+ children 0.064 0.245 0 1 Education no schooling/elementary 0.262 0.440 0 1 junior secondary 0.255 0.436 0 1 senior secondary 0.366 0.482 0 1 Tertiary 0.117 0.322 0 1 Migration status 0.028 0.166 0 1 Urban/rural 0.452 0.498 0 1 Island 0.597 0.491 0 1 Last employment characteristics Self-employment 0.135 0.342 0 1 Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.014 0.116 0 1 Government workers - others 0.009 0.093 0 1 Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 0.109 0.312 0 1 Private workers - manual, sales/service workers 0.495 0.500 0 1 Unpaid family workers 0.200 0.400 0 1 Casual workers 0.039 0.195 0 1 Presence of other females 0.537 0.499 0 1 Age 24.702 4.834 14 47 24
Characteristics at the end of work spell Work Pattern Continuous Interrupted Total Marital status Unmarried 45.3 41.3 43.0 Married 54.7 58.7 57.0 Number of children 0 57.7 67.5 63.3 1 27.7 29.7 28.9 2+ 14.5 2.8 7.8 Education No schooling/elementary 19.4 22.5 21.1 Junior secondary 15.0 24.2 20.2 Senior secondary 36.0 39.0 37.7 Tertiary 29.4 14.0 20.6 Other 0.2 0.3 0.3 Migration status Never migrate 84.0 71.6 77.0 Ever migrate 16.0 28.4 23.0 Urban/Rural residence Rural 49.0 53.5 51.6 Urban 51.0 46.5 48.4 Island Outside Java 41.5 41.0 41.2 Java 58.5 59.0 58.8 Last employment type Self-employment 13.6 6.5 9.5 Government workers - professional, managerial, clerical 9.5 0.8 4.5 Government workers - others 3.0 0.4 1.5 Private workers - professional, managerial, clerical 16.2 12.0 13.8 Private workers - manual, sales/service workers 35.0 56.3 47.1 Unpaid family workers 17.9 20.6 19.4 Casual workers 4.8 3.4 4.0 Missing 0.0 0.1 0.0 Presence of other adult females in household No adult females 34.8 45.6 40.9 At least one adult female 65.2 54.4 59.1 Number of sample (n) 949 1,255 2,204 25
Questionnaire of current employment section in IFLS 26
Questionnaire of retrospective work history in IFLS 27
Definition of the first work and break spells Work spell/episode is the time span a woman spends in a working state. break spell/episode is the time span a woman spends not in a working state, given she had worked before. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 N N N W W W W N N W W W 1 st work spell 1 st break spell Start 1 st spell Left workforce Re-enter workforce Background - Research Question - Data - Definition - Sample - Method - Variables - Result - Summary 28