ASSOCHAM Economic Weekly 11 th May, 2014

ASSOCHAM Economic Weekly 11 th May, 2014 Assocham Economic Research Bureau THE ASSOCIATED CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY OF INDIA

Contents 1. Macroeconomy 1.1 India s Foreign Trade, April 2014 1.2 Railways Revenue Earnings, April 2014 1.3 Cargo Handled by Major Ports, April 2014 1.4 Foreign Tourist Arrivals, April 2014 2. Corporate Sector 2.1 Automobile Production and Sale, April 2014 3. Market Trends 4. Global Developments 4.1 US International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2014 4.2 UK Trade, March 2014 5. Data Appendix Advertisement Opportunities 2

1. Macroeconomy 1.1 India s Foreign Trade, April 2014 Exports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ 25634.08 million (Rs.154718.60 crore) which was 5.26 per cent higher in Dollar terms (16.83 per cent higher in Rupee terms) than the level of US $ 24353.77 million (Rs. 132425.33 crore) during April, 2013. Imports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ 35720.03 million (Rs.215593.93 crore) representing a negative growth of 15 per cent in Dollar terms and negative growth of 5.66 per cent in Rupee terms over the level of imports valued at US $ 42025.87 million (Rs. 228518.59 crore) in April, 2013. Oil imports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ 12977.8 million which was 0.6 per cent lower than oil imports valued at US $ 13053.5 million in the corresponding period last year. Non-oil imports during April, 2014 were estimated at US $ 22742.2 million which was 21.5 per cent lower than non-oil imports of US $ 28972.4 million in April, 2013. The trade deficit for April, 2014 was estimated at US $ 10085.95 million which is lower than the deficit of US $ 17672.10 million during April, 2013. Please refer Table 1 Table 1 India s foreign trade (US $ Million) April* Exports (including re-exports) 2013-14 24353.77 3

1.2 Railways Revenue Earnings, April 2014 2014-15 25634.08 %Growth2014-15/ 2013-2014 5.26 Imports 2013-14 42025.87 2014-15 35720.03 %Growth 2014-15/ 2013-14 -15 Trade Balance 2013-14 -17672.1 2014-15 -10085.95 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India Note: * Provisional The total approximate earnings of Indian Railways on originating basis during April 2014 were Rs. 12064.46 crore compared to Rs. 11010.98 crore during the same period last year, registering an increase of 9.57 per cent. The total goods earnings in the month of April 2014 were Rs. 8204 crore compared to Rs. 7624 crore during the same period last year. The total passenger revenue earnings in April 2014 were Rs. 3406.76 crore compared to Rs. 2916.63 crore during the same period last year. The revenue earnings from other coaching amounted to Rs. 324.64 crore during April 2014 compared to Rs. 302.16 crore during the same period last year. The total approximate numbers of passengers booked during April 2014 were 685.85 million compared to 695.00 million during the same period last year. In the suburban and non-suburban sectors, the numbers of passengers booked during April 2014 were 361.74 million and 324.11 million compared to 371.60 million and 323.40 million during the same period last year. 4

1.3 Cargo Handled by Major Ports, April 2014 Compared to April last year, about nine per cent growth is registered in cargo handling by the major of ports of the country in the first month of the current financial year. In April last year, there was a negative growth of six per cent. Tuticorin Port (V.O. Chidambaranar) recorded highest growth in traffic by 36.3% last month followed by Mumbai (31%) and Murmugao (23.2%) in comparison to the April month last year. In terms of volumes Kanlda port handled over 6.9 million tonnes last month, the highest among the ports in April 2014, with a share of 14.7%, followed by Paradip port which handled over 6.4 million tonnes. In all over 47 million tonnes was handled last month by various major ports of the country. Among commodities, there was an increase of 25% in handling of fertilizers in April 2014 in comparison to April 2013. Iron ore handling has shown a sharp increase of 16.8% against negative growth of 62.3% in the previous year. Total cargo traffic at India s major ports during 2013-14 is 555.50 million tonnes, an increase by 1.8%, compared with 545.83 million tones handled in 2012-13. 1.4 Foreign Tourist Arrivals, April 2014 Some important highlights regarding Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) and Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from tourism during the month of April, 2014 are: Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs): FTAs during the Month of April 2014 was 5.04 lakh as compared to FTAs of 4.52 lakh during the month of April 2013 and 4.48 lakh in April 2012. There has been a growth of 11.5% in April 2014 over April 2013 as compared to a growth of 1.0% registered in April 2013 over April 2012. 5

FTAs during the period January-April 2014 were 26.31 lakh with a growth of 6.1%, as compared to the FTAs of 24.80 lakh with a growth of 2.6% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of 2012. Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from Tourism in rupee terms and US$ terms FEEs during the month of April 2014 were Rs.8,909 crore as compared to Rs.7,252 crore in April 2013 and Rs.6,745 crore in April 2012. The growth rate in FEEs in rupee terms in April 2014 over April 2013 was 22.8% as compared to 7.5% in April 2013 over April 2012. FEE from tourism in rupee terms during January-April 2014 were Rs.41,718 crore with a growth of 11.2%, as compared to the FEE of Rs.37,522 crore with a growth of 18.3% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of 2012. FEEs in US$ terms during the month of April 2014 were US$ 1.475 billion as compared to FEEs of US$ 1.334 billion during the month of April 2013 and US$ 1.305 billion in April 2012. The growth rate in FEEs in US$ terms in April 2014 over April 2013 was of 10.6% as compared to the growth of 2.2% in April 2013 over April 2012. FEE from tourism in terms of US$ during January-April 2014 were US$ 6.783 billion with a negative growth of 2.0%, as compared to US$ 6.921 billion with a growth of 10.3% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of 2012. 6

2. Corporate Sector 2.1 Automobile Production and Sale, April 2014 Production The industry produced a total 1,861,849 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in April 2014 as against 1,687,243 in April 2013, registering a growth of 10.35 percent over the same month last year. The growth continues to be on account of growth in two wheelers production. Domestic Sales The sales of Passenger Vehicles declined by (-) 9.50 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year. Within the Passenger Vehicles, Passenger Cars and Vans dropped by (-) 10.15 percent and (-) 27.04 percent respectively, while Utility Vehicles grew marginally by 0.27 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year The overall Commercial Vehicles segment registered a de-growth of (-) 24.00 percent in April 2014 as compared to same month last year. Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs) registered negative growth at (-) 17.09 percent and Light Commercial Vehicles also dropped by (- ) 27.37 percent. Three Wheelers sales declined by (-) 2.17 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year. Passenger Carriers and Goods Carriers declined by (-) 2.62 percent and (-) 0.46 percent respectively in April 2014 over April 2013. 7

Two Wheelers sales registered growth of 11.67 percent in April 2014 over April 2013. Within the Two Wheelers segment, Scooters, Motorcycles and Mopeds grew by 26.08 percent, 8.06 percent and 0.23 percent respectively in April 2014 over April 2013. Please refer Table 2 Exports Table 2 Automobile Industry - Domestic sales April 2014 Mar 2014 Change (%) April 2014 Change (%) Cars 135433 171489-21.03 150737-10.2 Utility Vehicles 40680 51414-20.88 40570 0.3 Passenger Vehicles 188541 238212-20.85 208341-9.5 Two-wheelers 1304447 1334214-2.23 1168100 11.7 Commercial vehicles 43080 64101-32.79 56683-24.0 Total Industry 1569670 1677445-6.42 1467472 7.0 In April 2014, overall automobile exports grew by 12.98 percent. Passenger Vehicles and Three Wheelers registered de-growth at (-) 0.95 percent (-) 22.83 percent respectively while Commercial vehicles and Two wheelers registered growth at 12.66 percent and 24.66 percent respectively in April 2014 over April 2013. 8

3. Market Trends BSE: The BSE Sensex increased by 2.59 per cent and closed at 22994.23 NSE: Nifty increased by 2.65 per cent during the week and closed at 6858.8 Dollar: The value of Rupee depreciated by Rs. 0.01 against the US dollar during the week and closed at Rs 60.05 per dollar. Euro: The value of Rupee appreciated by Rs. 0.27 against the Euro and closed at Rs. 83.07 per euro. Gold: Prices of gold decreased by Rs. 258.90 per 10 grams during the week and closed at Rs. 30045.88 per 10 grams. Silver: Prices of silver decreased by Rs. 1883.18 during the week and closed at Rs. 42078.90 Per kg. Crude Oil: The prices of crude oil decreased by USD 0.5 per barrel and closed at USD 105.5 per barrel. Forex Reserves: India s Foreign Exchange reserves increased by USD 1.94 billion to USD 311.857 billion during the week-ended May 2, 2014. 9

4. Global Developments 4.1 US International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2014 According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis total March exports of $193.9 billion and imports of $234.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.4 billion, down from $41.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $3.9 billion more than February exports of $190.0 billion. March imports were $2.5 billion more than February imports of $231.8 billion. In March, the goods deficit decreased $0.6 billion from February to $60.7 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.9 billion from February to $20.4 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.7 billion to $135.1 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $195.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $58.8 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.7 billion to $38.4 billion. The goods and services deficit increased $3.8 billion from March 2013 to March 2014. Exports were up $9.2 billion, or 5.0 percent, and imports were up $13.0 billion, or 5.9 percent. The February to March increase in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($2.1 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.6 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). A decrease occurred in consumer goods ($0.3 billion). The February to March increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.0 billion); capital goods ($0.9 billion); and other goods ($0.8 billion). A decrease occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.5 billion). Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were virtually unchanged. 10

The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($2.8 billion); consumer goods ($1.5 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.5 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.6 billion). Decreases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion) and other goods ($0.2 billion). The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods ($4.1 billion); capital goods ($3.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.0 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion). Exports of services increased $0.2 billion from February to March. Increases in other private services ($0.2 billion), which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, and in passenger fares ($0.1 billion) were partly offset by a decrease in travel ($0.1 billion). Changes in the other categories of services exports were relatively small. Imports of services decreased $0.7 billion from February to March. The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in exports of services was $3.3 billion or 6.0 percent. The largest increases were in other private services ($2.0 billion), in travel ($0.7 billion), and in royalties and license fees ($0.6 billion). Within other private services, the largest increase was in business, professional, and technical services. The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in imports of services was $1.8 billion or 4.8 percent. The largest increases were in other private services ($1.5 billion) and in other transportation ($0.2 billion). Within other private services, the largest increase was in business, professional, and technical services. Please refer Table 3 Table 3 US International Trade in Goods and Services Balance Exports Imports (US $ Million) 11

2013 Total Goods (1) Services Total Goods (1) Services Total Goods (1) Services Jan. - Dec. -474,864-703,910 229,046 2,271,385 1,589,664 681,721 2,746,249 2,293,574 452,675 Jan. - Mar. -121,958-178,698 56,740 558,427 391,293 167,135 680,385 569,991 110,394 January -42,139-61,216 19,077 186,789 130,806 55,983 228,928 192,022 36,906 February -43,257-62,130 18,874 186,880 131,198 55,682 230,137 193,328 36,808 March -36,562-55,352 18,789 184,758 129,289 55,469 221,321 184,641 36,680 April -39,374-58,341 18,967 187,308 131,042 56,266 226,682 189,383 37,299 May -43,661-62,868 19,207 186,909 130,180 56,729 230,571 193,049 37,522 June -34,414-53,769 19,355 191,055 134,018 57,037 225,469 187,787 37,682 July -38,900-57,903 19,004 189,753 132,905 56,848 228,652 190,808 37,844 August -39,207-58,091 18,884 189,635 132,579 57,056 228,842 190,670 38,172 September -43,434-62,407 18,972 189,251 132,291 56,960 232,685 194,698 37,988 October -39,770-58,781 19,012 193,112 135,642 57,470 232,882 194,423 38,458 November -35,171-54,362 19,192 194,644 136,978 57,667 229,815 191,340 38,475 December -38,975-58,689 19,714 191,290 132,737 58,554 230,265 191,426 38,840 2014 Jan. - Mar. -121,533-181,593 60,060 576,333 400,231 176,102 697,865 581,824 116,042 January -39,280-59,501 20,221 192,459 133,751 58,708 231,740 193,253 38,487 February (R) -41,874-61,344 19,470 189,963 131,384 58,580 231,837 192,728 39,110 March -40,378-60,748 20,369 193,910 135,096 58,814 234,288 195,843 38,445 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: (1) Data are presented on a balance of payments (BOP) basis 4.2 UK Trade, March 2014 UK deficit of trade in goods and services for March 2014 was 1.3 billion, compared with a deficit of 1.7 billion in the previous month. The deficit on trade in goods was 8.5 billion in March 2014. Exports of goods increased by 4.9% between February and March 2014 to 24.6 billion reflecting an increase in exports of finished manufactures which increased by 0.6 billion. This increase was spread fairly evenly within finished manufactures, however exports of jewellery and exports of cars were the most significant movements, rising by 0.2 billion and 0.1 billion respectively. Imports of goods for the same period increased by 2.8% to 33.1 billion. Again, the rise reflects an increase in the import of finished manufactures, specifically imports of aircraft which rose 0.3 billion from the previous month. In March 2014, exports of goods to countries within the European Union (EU) increased by 0.7 billion to 12.3 billion; 0.6 billion of this increase was attributed to trade in oil. Imports from the 12

EU increased by 0.1 billion to 17.6 billion. A 0.3 billion increase in imports of semi manufactures (primarily chemicals) was almost entirely offset by a 0.3 billion fall in imports of fuels. In March 2014, exports of goods to countries outside of the EU increased by 0.4 billion to 12.4 billion. Imports from countries outside of the EU increased by 0.8 billion to 15.6 billion. The deficit on trade in goods narrowed by less than 0.1 billion to 26.7 billion in Q1 2014, compared with the previous quarter. Exports of goods decreased by 2.8 billion to 72.0 billion in Q1 2014 reflecting a fall in exports of manufactured goods of 2.3 billion; 1.2 billion of this decrease is attributed to exports of finished manufactures, specifically aircraft. Imports of goods decreased by 2.8 billion to 98.7 billion in Q1 2014. Imports of manufactured goods accounts for 1.4 billion of this fall; 1.0 billion of which is attributed to imports of semi-manufactures (chemicals and materials). Imports of fuels (specifically oil) contributed a further 0.8 billion to the decrease. Please refer Table 4 Table 4 UK Trade ( million) Total Trade Trade in goods Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance 2011 492 884 516 144-23 260 298 421 398 513-100 092 2012 495 284 528 665-33 381 300 457 409 157-108 700 2013 506 470 533 066-26 596 304 728 412 525-107 797 2012 Q3 124 862 131 795-6 933 75 433 101 924-26 491 Q4 125 082 132 665-7 583 74 714 102 730-28 016 2013 Q1 126 513 132 047-5 534 76 180 102 135-25 955 Q2 128 381 133 807-5 426 78 442 103 887-25 445 Q3 125 514 135 491-9 977 75 269 104 945-29 676 Q4 126 062 131 721-5 659 74 837 101 558-26 721 2014 Q1 123 140 128 349-5 209 72 040 98 739-26 699 2013 Oct 41 858 44 471-2 613 24 884 34 360-9 476 Nov 41 778 44 313-2 535 24 695 34 278-9 583 Dec 42 426 42 937-511 25 258 32 920-7 662 2014 Jan 40,980 43,192-2,212 23,936 33,408-9,472 Feb 40,518 42,231-1,713 23,473 32,222-8,749 Mar 41,642 42,926-1,284 24,631 33,109-8,478 Percentage change, latest month compared with: Previous Month 2.8 1.6 4.9 2.8 Source: UK Office for National Statistics 13

5. Data Appendix Table 5 Latest Available Financial Information April 25, 2014 May 02, 2014 Percentage Change Item Deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks with RBI (Rs. Billion) 3,321.13 3,308.59-0.38 Foreign Currency Assets of RBI (Rs. Billion) 17,359.07 17,259.01-0.58 Advances of RBI to the Central Government (Rs. Billion) ------ ------ ------- Advances of RBI to the Scheduled Commercial Banks (Rs. Billion) 472.48 414.66-12.24 Source: RBI, Govt. of India Table 6 BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty Index Index May 05, 2014 May 09, 2014 Percentage Change BSE SENSEX 22,412.80 22,994.23 2.59 S & P CNX NIFTY 6,681.65 6,858.80 2.65 Source: BSE India and NSE India 14

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ASSOCHAM Economic Research Bureau ASSOCHAM Economic Research Bureau (AERB) is the research division of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. The Research Bureau undertakes studies on various economic issues, policy matters, financial markets, international trade, social development, sector wise performance and monitoring global economy dynamics. The main banners of the Bureau are: ASSOCHAM Eco Pulse (AEP) studies are based on the data provided by various institutions like Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, IMF, WTO, CSO, Finance Ministry, Commerce Ministry, CMIE etc. ASSOCHAM Business Barometer (ABB) are based on the surveys conducted by the Research Team to take note of the opinion of leading CEOs, MDs, CFOs, economists and experts in various fields. ASSOCHAM Investment Meter (AIM) keeps the track of the investment announcements by the private sector in different sectors and across the various states and cities. ASSOCHAM Placement Pattern (APP) is based on the sample data that is tracked on a daily basis for the vacancies posted by companies via job portals and advertisements in the national and regional dailies, journals and newspaper. Data is tracked for 60 cities and 30 sectors that are offering job opportunities in India. ASSOCHAM Financial Pulse (AFP) as an analytical tool tracks quarterly financial performance of India Inc; forming strong inter-linkages with the real economy and presents sectoral insights and outlook based on financial indicators, demand signals and corporate dividend activity. Email: research@assocham.com 16

THE KNOWLEDGE CHAMBER Evolution of Value Creator ASSOCHAM initiated its endeavor of value creation for Indian industry in 1920. It has witnessed upswings as well as upheaval of Indian Economy and contributed significantly by playing a catalytic role in shaping up the Trade, Commerce and Industrial environment of the country. ASSOCHAM derives its strength from the following Promoter Chambers: Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mumbai; Cochin Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Cochin; Indian Merchant's Chamber, Mumbai; The Madras Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Chennai; PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi. VISION Empower Indian enterprise by inculcating knowledge that will be the catalyst of growth in the barrier less technology driven global market and help them upscale, align and emerge as formidable player in respective business segment MISSION As representative organ of Corporate India, ASSOCHAM articulates the genuine, legitimate needs and interests of its members. Its mission is to impact the policy and legislative environment so as to foster balanced economic industrial and social development. We believe education, health, agriculture and environment to be the critical success factors. GOALS To ensure that the voice and concerns of ASSOCHAM are taken note of by policy makers and legislators. To be proactive on policy initiatives those are in consonance with our mission. To strengthen the network of relationships of national and international levels/forums. To develop learning organization, sensitive to the development needs and concerns of its members. To broad-base membership. Knowledge sets the pace for growth by exceeding the expectation, and blends the wisdom of the old with the needs of the present. 17