US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts June 16, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Federal Budget 1-4 US Federal Outlays & Receipts 5-7 US Federal Tax Receipts 8-1 Federal Government Receipts 11 US Federal Outlays 12-15 US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit 16 Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports 17 June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
5 Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2-15 4.3 3.9 3.5 Figure 2. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 Outlays (4.1) Receipts (3.4) 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1.7 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2.7 Page 1 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
12 11 Figure 3. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total outlays*) US Federal Budget 12 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 5 * 12-month sum. 5 4 Figure 4. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT (as a percent of federal outlays*) 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2-2 * 12-month sum. Page 2 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
8 6 4 2-2 Figure 5. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget 8 6 4 2-2 -4-4 -6-6 -8-1 Total Total Excluding Net Interest Paid -8-1 -12-12 -14-16 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2-14 -16 35 Figure 6. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT NET INTEREST PAID (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 1 Page 3 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Figure 7. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT (as a percent of nominal GDP) US Federal Budget -4 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22-5 Q1 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 28 26 Figure 8. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES & RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 28 26 24 Expenditures (22.) 24 22 Q1 22 2 2 16 Receipts (17.4) Q1 16 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
22 Figure 9. US Federal Outlays & Receipts 22 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 2 2 Average = 17.6 Q1 16 16 Receipts (17.4) 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 28 26 Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) 28 26 24 Expenditures (22.) 24 22 Q1 22 2 2 16 16 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
-16-14 Figure 11. US Federal Outlays & Receipts US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, inverted scale) -16-14 -12-12 -1 Q1-1 -8-6 -4 Treasury Data (12-month sum) NIPA Basis Data (saar) -8-6 -4-2 -2 2 2 4 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 4 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Treasury Department and Federal Reserve Board. -12-1 Figure 12. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE NIPA BASIS (saar) (as a percent of nominal GDP, inverted scale) -12-1 -8-8 -6-6 -4 Q1-4 -2-2 2 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 2 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Page 6 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
2 16 14 12 1 8 Figure 13. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Outlays & Receipts 2 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 15 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12-15 - -21 Figure 14. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 15 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12-15 - -21 Page 7 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
1.8 1.6 Figure 15. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (trillion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Individual Income Taxes (1.7) Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (1.2) Corporate Income Taxes (.3) 1.4 1.2 1. 1..8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2. 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2. * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. 6 Figure 16. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total receipts) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 Individual Income Taxes Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* Corporate Income Taxes 3 2 1 1 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. Page 8 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 25 Figure 17. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts Total Tax Receipts 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 25 15 5 15 5-5 -15 Individual Income Tax Receipts -5-15 -25 3 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2-25 3 2 1 Corporate Income Tax Receipts 2 1-1 24 2 16 12 8 4-4 -8 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9. -1 24 2 16 12 8 4-4 -8 Page 9 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 16 14 12 1 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 16 14 12 1 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 16 14 12 1 Figure. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LEADING INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Leading Indicators (216=1) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. COINCIDENT INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Coincident Indicators (216=1) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LAGGING INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Lagging Indicators (216=1) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and The Conference Board. US Federal Tax Receipts 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 1 115 112 19 16 13 1 97 94 91 88 85 82 79 76 73 7 67 64 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 Page 1 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
7 Figure 19. Federal Government Receipts GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 2 4 Figure 2. GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 4 3 3 2 2 1 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 1 Page 11 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
US Federal Outlays 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 Figure 21. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2. Total (4.1) Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (2.6) 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2.4 7 Figure 22. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 7 6 Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security 6 5 5 4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 4 Page 12 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
115 99 83 67 51 Figure 23. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) US Federal Outlays 115 99 83 67 51 35 35 19 19 Health Medicare Income Security Social Security National Defense 3 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 3 38 33 28 23 Figure 24. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 38 33 28 23 13 13 8 Health Medicare Income Security Social Security National Defense 8 3 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 3 Page 13 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
US Federal Outlays 167 155 143 131 119 17 95 83 Figure 25. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 167 155 143 131 119 17 95 83 71 71 59 59 47 47 35 35 23 Medicare + Social Security Income Security + Health National Defense 23 11 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 11 45 4 Figure 26. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 45 4 35 35 3 25 Medicare + Social Security Income Security + Health National Defense 3 25 2 2 15 15 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 1 Page 14 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
US Federal Outlays 2. Figure 27. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) 2. 1.6 1.2 Federal Government Spending in GDP (current dollars, saar) Total Excluding Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (current dollars, 12-month sum) 1.6 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis..4 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2. Figure 28. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Total (12-month sum) (4.1) Federal Government Spending in GDP (saar) (1.3) 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.6 1.2 Q1 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis..4 Page 15 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
165 145 125 15 85 Figure 29. US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS RECEIPTS & OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Social Security and Medicare Payments Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts 165 145 125 15 85 65 65 45 45 25 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 25 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Figure 3. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS DEFICIT* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 * Social Security and Medicare payments less social insurance and retirement receipts. Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9. Page 16 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
4 Figure 31. Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES & MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (billion dollars) 3 Apr 3 Merchandise Imports (saar) 2 Custom Duties (12-month sum) 2 1 1 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury and US Bureau of the Census. 4 2 Figure 32. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE FISCAL YEARS (billion dollars) 4 2-2 -2-4 -6 Actual Projected by CBO -4-6 -8-8 -1-1 -12-12 -14-14 -16 228 68 7 72 74 3 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 22 24 26 28 32-16 Source: Congressional Budget Office. Page 17 / June 16, 2 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
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