Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI July 11, 18 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Indonesia MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Revenue & Earnings Growth 5 July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 925 775 625 Figure 1. INDONESIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) 7/11 925 775 625 475 475 325 325 175 175 25 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 -day moving average. Source: MSCI. 25 11 81 61 41 Figure 2. INDONESIA MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Indonesia MSCI Index 7/11/18 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 7/5/18 x16 x1 11 81 61 41 21 x4 21 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
Earnings 55 5 45 Figure 3. INDONESIA MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 19 55 5 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 15 15 1 5-5 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 5-5 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Figure 4. INDONESIA MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 1 1-1 Jun -1 - -3 NERI Apr -3.81 May-1.7 Jun-11.26 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - -3 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
365 315 265 Figure 5. INDONESIA MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 17 18 19 365 315 265 215 215 165 165 115 115 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 65 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 65 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. 22 Figure 6. INDONESIA MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 22 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (16.8) 18 17 18 18 19 16 16 14 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 14 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
4 Figure 7. INDONESIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Valuation 4 35 Forward P/E (13.4) 35 3 3 25 25 15 1 15 1 5 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 5, weekly thereafter. 2. Figure 8. INDONESIA MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 2. 1.75 1.75 1.5 Relative P/E (.92) 1.5 1.25 1.25 1..75 1..75.5.5.25.25. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19. * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 5, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
45 4 Figure 9. INDONESIA MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) Revenue & Earnings Growth 45 4 35 35 3 25 LTEG* (11.2) STEG* (12.1) STRG* (8.8) 3 25 15 1 15 1 5 5-5 -1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. -5-1 Page 5 / July 11, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Indonesia MSCI www.
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