Daily Indian Guar seed and Guar Gum Market Mentor Decision enabling market analysis & price outlook For Jan 1, 212 NCDEX Jan 12 Futures as on 9 th Jan 12 Fundamental Summary Price outlook summary of Guar Seed Price outlook summary of Guar gum Price Ranges Strategy Review Report Summary Guar seed and Guar Gum Guar Seed: INR 827 (+16.) Guar Gum: INR 27166 (+145.) Critical factors Impact Weightage Score Limited stock in the market Marginal Bullish 25% 4 Surging export demand Marginal Bullish 25% 4 Reversal in INR levels against USD Marginal Bearish 25% 1 Regional demand Marginal Bullish 15% 4 Reports of crop damage in neighbouring states. Marginal Bullish 1% 4 Indexed Score.25 Concisely, prices are likely to trade higher towards INR 85 with positive bias in upcoming 5 sessions. Concisely, prices are likely to trade higher towards INR 28 in upcoming 5 sessions Next five sessions Next ten sessions Initial Level (IL) Subsequent Level (SL) IL SL Guar seed 85 82 85 78 Guar gum 275 28 28 27 Guar seed Suggested short position in Feb 12 futures got filled and liquidated in past session. For fresh positions, one must follow below strategy Guar gum For fresh position, one must wait for a while. Trading Strategy Filled on Position Filled at Objective Stop Loss Around INR Above INR Guar seed Long INR 87 8 81 Guar gum Performance Audit NCDEX Guar Seed NCDEX Guar Gum Since 28 Since 211 Since 28 Since 211 Range honored % 64.14% 58.62% 69.7% 66.67% Net profit / Gross profit Ratio % 65.24% 67.14% 71.56% 71.21% Discuss with our expert 1 Phone: +91 4 685 E mail: services@transgraph.com Internet: www.transgraph.com
Market Review Guar seed futures touched a new height at INR 872 per quintal on back up of renewed buying by stockiest. Speculative buying coupled with limited stocks in the markets shall fuel up positive sentiments in the market in the near term. Robust demand across regional markets coupled with good exports is likely to keep markets on an upside. Further of damaged crops in neighboring state of Pakistan is further likely to fuel up positive sentiments to the price. Profit booking at prevailing higher levels by speculators is expected to lower down guar seed prices in the near term. This coupled with recent reversal in INR rates against USD is likely to limit the export demand keeping prices under negative pressure. Collating the above, NCDEX Guar complex is expected to show a mixed momentum weighing upside in coming 5 6 sessions. Technical Outlook Guar Seed and Guar Gum Guar Seed: NCDEX Guar seed Jan 11 Futures prices traded on positive note and breached the resistance at INR 7977 in the past session. On the daily technical setup, the MACD (12,26,9) has triggered sell signal above the zero line as well as stochastic oscillator (14,,) is hovering in the overbought territory. These should be watched closely for any signs of reversal ahead. On the higher side, with closing made above INR 8 levels resistance, prices are likely to extend the gains towards INR 85 levels before drifting lower. On the lower side, INR 77 and INR 65 will be the probable area of support in upcoming sessions. Concisely, prices are likely to trade higher towards INR 85 with positive bias in upcoming 5 sessions. Guar Gum: Concisely, prices are likely to trade mixed around INR 24 in upcoming 5 sessions with any strength to find resistance at INR 255. 2
Mini Charts Guar Gum Future Spread Guar Gum Future Spread Guar Seed Future Spread 55 5 45 4 5 Feb'12 Jan'12 467 5 4 2 1 Mar'12 Feb'12 217 15 1 5 Feb'12 Jan'12 127 115 11 15 1 95 Guar Seed Future Spread Gum/Seed Ratio(Spot) Gum/Seed Ratio(Future) Mar'12 Feb'12 112.2.27 Gum/Seed (Jodhpur) Spread Guar Seed (Bikaner Jodhpur) USD/INR 185 18 175 17 165 1829 8 6 4 2 2 4 27.4 5 5 5.9 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/9 Guar Gum NCDEX stocks(tons) Guar Seed NCDEX Stocks(tons) Guar Gum Historical 1 8 6 4 2 77247 6275 6161 694 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 5 25 2 15 1 5 1612 129 12745 12985 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 71 64 57 5 4 6 29 22 15 627 4566 812 228 211 212 211,. 211,1. Guar Seed Historical Guar Seed Forward Curve Guar Gum Forward Curve 26 21 16 11 6 1 2648 11925 14568 5165 211 212 211,.211,1. 85 84 8 82 81 8 1/9/212 8446 827 8476 84 8294 Jan'12 Mar'12 May'12 285 28 275 27 265 1/9/212 284 276 2785 2826 27166 Jan'12 Mar'12 May'12
Spot Prices Commodity Market 1/9/212 1/7/212 Change % change Guar Gum Jodhpur 264 2555 264 2555 Guar Seed Bikaner 869 78 869 78 Guar Seed Jodhpur 841 779 841 779 Soya Meal Indore 16925 16875 16925 16875 Maize Nizamabad 1188 1187 1188 1187 Barley Jaipur 1228 1225 1228 1225 INR vs. USD MCX SG.9.67.28.5 Futures Prices Guar seed Futures market Jan 9 212 Open High Low Close Change NCDEX Jan 12 7777 827 7777 827 16 NCDEX Feb 12 796 84 796 84 21 NCDEX Mar 12 8148 8446 8148 8446 25 Guar Gum Futures market Open High Low Close Change NCDEX Jan 12 2611 27166 265 27166 145 NCDEX Feb 12 261 27656 265 276 141 NCDEX Mar 12 2691 2785 269 2785 172 4
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