The Impac of Yen Flucuaion on he Trade beween Taiwan and Japan Bao-bao Wang Chih-Ching Yang Pei-Chun Kao Ting-Yu Hsu Yi-Ting Liu Deparmen of Inernaional Business, Naional Chengchi Universiy Advisor Prof. Kun-Ming Chen Deparmen of Inernaional Business, Naional Chengchi Universiy Absrac The paper deals wih he possible facors which may bring impacs on he rade beween Taiwan and Japan, and how he yen flucuaion will affec Taiwanese expor indusry. We firs derive he funcion by employing he model proposed by Dr. Chen in his former paper work. We hen conclude ha here are hree major causes, which are he real exchange of yen, he producion cos, and he hird counry effec ha may influence he bilaeral rade beween Taiwan and Japan. To go a sep furher, we discuss he possible impacs of hese facors posed on respecive indusries. To simplify he research, we pick up he elecrical machinery and he machinery indusry o represen he Taiwanese expors, and we find ha he yen flucuaion can generae posiive or negaive effecs on he indusry depends on is srucure. 1
1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Moivaion and Background Las year, Abe Shinzo again became he presiden of LDP (Liberal Democraic Pary) on 26 h Sepember. He proposed and implemened a series of economic policies so called Abenomics. He waned o conquer he problems of deflaion and he high Japanese yen exchange rae. Hence he financial measures below Abenomics led o he depreciaion of Japanese yen. This is seen in Figure 1, which presens Japanese yen flucuaion from May 2012. I had been 29% depreciaion of Japanese yen from 26 h Sepember 2012 o 31 s May 2013. Figure 1: The Flucuaion of Japanese yen o Dollar since May 2012 Daa from Cenral Bank of ROC: hp://www.cbc.gov.w/mp1.hml Figure 2 shows more evidences of depreciaion of Japanese yen. Taiwan and China are main rade counries o Japan. The exchange rae o hese wo also shows he rend of depreciaion. Alhough Japanese yen o hese currencies all shows depreciaion, he degree of each one is differen. 2
Figure 2: The Flucuaion of Japanese yen o TWD and CNY since July 2012 JPY/TWD JPY/CNY Daa from X-RATES: www.x-raes.com 2012/7~2013/7 From figure 3 and 4, we can find ha Japan is Taiwan s hird larges exporing counry and is Taiwan s bigges imporing counry. I means ha Japan is Taiwan s imporan rade parner. Figure 3: Taiwan s Top 5 Exporing Counries 16% 7% 1% China 31% 45% Unied Saes Japan Daa from ROC Bureau of Foreign Trade: hp://cus93.rade.gov.w/fsci/ Figure 4: Taiwan s Top 5 Imporing Counries 11% 21% 8% 21% 39% Japan Unied Saes China Korea Saudi Arabia Daa from ROC Bureau of Foreign Trade: hp://cus93.rade.gov.w/fsci/ 3
1.2 Purpose of Sudy and Research Procedures Because Taiwan and Japan have close relaion on rade, we wan o figure ou wheher he flucuaion of Japanese yen affecs he rade beween Taiwan and Japan. Our research procedures are divided ino hree pars. Firs, we design a model and ry o find ou if he flucuaion of Japanese yen exchange rae has significan influence on Taiwan s oal expors o Japan. Second, we analyze he aggregae regression resul. Third, according o he World Trade Alas (WTA), he mos op wo goods Japan impors from Taiwan are elecrical machinery and machinery. Therefore, we respecively analyze he regression resul of hese wo indusries. 2. The Third Counry Effec There is an imporan effec called he hird counry effec which can be overlooked when esimaing he impac of he exchange rae flucuaion of yen on Taiwan s expor volume o Japan. The hird counry effec is composed of 2 facors: One is he cos of impored inermediae goods; he oher is he compeior s price. The following is he explanaion of he meaning of hese wo facors. The firs one is he cos of impored inermediae goods. Firs, we sugges ha, in order o expor goods o Japan, Taiwanese companies mainly impor maerials from counry J. Since we impor goods from counry J, he price of hese goods will become pars of our oal cos. Consequenly, if he goods impored from counry J have lower price, hen we will have a lower cos, and his brings o he case ha Taiwan s expor producs have lower exporing price in Japanese marke. From he inference above, we figured ou ha he cos of impored inermediae goods will affec he Taiwan s oal expor volume o Japan. Hence, he cos of impored inermediae goods is one of he facors of he hird counry effec. 4
The second facor is he compeior s price. Firs, we sugges ha Taiwan s main compeior in Japan is counry K. If he produc price of K is lower, i will affec Taiwan s expor producs compeiive power. The influence on Taiwan s expor producs compeiive power will affec Taiwan s oal expor volume o Japan in he end. Forasmuch, he compeior s price is he second facor of he hird counry effec. The hird counry effec exiss since boh he cos of impored inermediae goods and he compeior s price will affec Taiwan s oal expor volume o Japan. This effec will also be considered in our model when discussing wheher he yen s flucuaion will have significan impac on Taiwan s expor o Japan. 3. Model Designing and Explanaion 3.1 Expor Supply Since he opic deals wih he possible impac ha he yen flucuaion may bring o Taiwanese expors o Japan, observing he expor volume is a necessary process. To go a sep furher, he expor volume is deermined by he supply-demand curve. As a resul, he model is designed based on such a concep, and he supply side will be inroduced in his secion firs. As he supply side is originaed from he producion cos, we derive he funcion a he beginning. The Taiwanese suppliers oal producion cos, which is priced a New Taiwanese Dollar (NTD) is lised here: α 1 α TC = [( PD ) ( PM ) ] Q NTD NTD NTD (1) PD!"#!"#! and PM! represen he price he uni cos for which he Taiwanese suppliers spend in he domesic and foreign environmen o expor goods o Japan, respecively. The price for which he Taiwanese suppliers spend in he foreign counries, for insance, is he cos of imporing inermediae goods for reproducion. 5
These coss ime he expor quaniy Q! hen become he Taiwanese suppliers oal cos for exporing goods o Japan, which is TC!"!!. In addiion, o simplify he analysis, we assume ha he goods from foreign counries are differen, while he goods made by he domesic producers are all he same. Suppose ha here is a large amoun of suppliers in Taiwanese marke and herefore facing a perfec compeiion. Then according o he principle of marginal cos pricing, he price which he Taiwanese suppliers pursue o maximize heir expor profi will be PX!"#, which is he derivaive from formula (1). In oher words, he price equals he marginal cos: PX NTD = ( PD NTD ) ( PM ) α NTD 1 α (2) Nex, we compare he price of Taiwanese expors, which is he marginal cos, wih he one of Japanese producs. The raio is he real exchange rae of Japanese yen. NTD 1 PX px = ( ) (3) JP NTD JP P E!"# Formula (1) indicaes ha he nominal exchange rae E!"! now is one Japanese yen o E! unis of New Taiwanese Dollar. As here are PX! unis of NTD in oal, PX!!"# divided by E!!"#!" is he nominal value of Japanese yen. Then again do he division of dividing his value by Japanese Wholesale Price Index (WPI), he final saisics is he real exchange rae of Japanese yen, compared wih NTD. 1 NTD NTD NTD j j NTD PD α PM 1 α 1 PD α 1 PM E [( ) ( ) ] = [ ( )] [ ( )] 1 JP NTD JP NTD JP JP NTD JP JP NTD JP P E E P E P E 1 = [ P JP PD ( E NTD NTD JP α 1 )] [ P JP PM ( j E j JP )] α (4) And we compare he exchange rae of he counries where Taiwan impor inermediae goods wih Japanese yen, preformed as (!"!!!!"). Afer deflaing he!! Taiwanese domesic and foreign inpu price by Japanese WPI, he value a he end is: 6
α 1 α ( pd ) ( pm ) (5) Where pd! and pm! sand for he raio of Taiwanese domesic and foreign inpu price o Japanese naional produc price, respecively. 3.2 Expor Demand The expor demand of a counry is usually se o be he funcion of expor price, impor counry s income, and impor counry s domesic price. Therefore, Japan s demand funcion for Taiwan s producs can be se like: X D = X JP P = f! JP TW K Y JP JP P, PX P JP TW /JP E, PX $ JP # P JP k/jp & = y " E % ( ) β 1 ( px ) β 2 k ( px ) β 3 Where X!! sands for Japan s demand for Taiwan s produc, X!!" (6) for Taiwan s expor volume o Japan, and P!!" for Japanese domesic produc price, which we use Japan s wholesale price index (WPI) o calculae. The firs variable in he bracke, Y!!" represens Japanese income, which we use Japanese real GDP o calculae. The second variable shows he raio of Taiwan s produc price o Japan s, where we also use Taiwan s WPI o calculae PX!!" and use exchange rae, E!!"/!", o calculae he relaive price. PX!! in he hird variable represens oher exporer s produc price in Japanese marke, where we also use exchange rae, E!!/!" o show he relaiviy. Noe ha in his formula, oher exporer, also called he hird counry, can be in a complemenary relaionship or in a compeiive relaionship wih Taiwan. Move on o exponens,, and. Firs of all, represens income elasiciy. When Japanese real GDP increases, we expec Japan s demand for Taiwan s producs also increase since i has greaer purchasing power. Therefore, we assume ha is greaer han zero. Nex, means expor price elasiciy. If Taiwan s expor price rises relaive o Japan s, hen Taiwan will expor fewer producs o Japan as he laer s demand declines. Thus, we expec smaller han zero. Thirdly, can be 7
greaer or smaller han zero, depending on he hird counry s relaionship wih Taiwan. If is produc is compeiive wih Taiwan s produc, hen will be greaer han zero because when Taiwan s compeior s expor price relaively rises, Taiwan s produc is more compeiive and aracive in Japanese marke. Conversely, if hey are in a complemenary relaionship, hen is smaller han zero. Now we subsiue px! wih (pd! )! (pm)!!!!, which is formula (5) we derive from supply side par. The formula becomes: x JP β1 β ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 k β3 JP β1 αβ2 1 α β β 2 k y px px = y pd pm ( px ) 3 = (7) 4. Regression Analysis 4.1 Taiwan Toal Expor o Japan Regression Model: logy = C + log x + x (8) 1 + log x2 + log x3 log 4 Y: Taiwan s oal expor o Japan from he firs quarer of 1999 o he second quarer of 2012 (uni: Japan s yen) x! : The exchange rae beween Japan and Taiwan from he firs quarer of 1999 o he second quarer of 2012 (Uni: JPY/NTD) x! : Japan s real GDP (uni: Japan s yen) x! : Taiwan s produc cos x! : Taiwan s main compeior s produc cos Y is he represenaive for Taiwan s oal expor o Japan from he firs quarer of 1999 o he second quarer of 2012. We derive he number (able 1) from he bureau of foreign rade, and hen we divide he nominal expors by Taiwan s WPI o be real expors. Moreover, we use he Japan s yen o be he uni. x! is he represenaive for he exchange rae beween Japan and Taiwan from he firs quarer of 1999 o he second quarer of 2012 (Uni: JPY/NTD) 8
The coefficien of logx! is posiive, which means ha here is a posiive relaionship beween Taiwan s expor o Japan and exchange raes. When he value of x! becomes higher, 1 NT dollar can exchange more yens (in oher words, Japanese yen depreciaes) and Taiwan s expor o Japan will be higher, oo; When he value of x! become lower, 1 NT dollar exchange less yens (yen appreciaes) and Taiwan s expor o Japan will be lower. x! is he represenaive for Japan s real GDP. Firsly, we derive he daa of he nominal GDP (able 2) from OECD, and hen we divide he nominal GDP by Japan s CPI o be real GDP. Secondly, o make he regression model more accurae, we use yen o be he uni. The coefficien of logx! is posiive, which means ha here is a posiive relaionship beween Taiwan s expor o Japan and Japan s real GDP. The increase of he value of x! means ha Japan s real GDP is on he increase; he decrease of he value of x! means ha Japan s real GDP is on he decrease. Table 3 presens he resuls for he oal expors model. The coefficiens of logx! and logx! are posiive, and i means when New Taiwan dollar appreciaes, Taiwan s expor o Japan will be on he increase, and when Japan s real GDP becomes higher, Taiwan s expor o Japan will also be higher. In addiion, as can be seen from able 5, Japan is Taiwan s Top1 impor counry. As yen depreciaes, he cos of goods impored from Japan will be lower and herefore he prices of goods can be lower and compeiive. We can deermine ha he rade relaionship beween he wo counries is he parner. GDP includes household consumpion expendiures and personal consumpion expendiures (C), gross privae domesic invesmen (I), governmen consumpion and gross invesmen expendiures (G), and ne expor (X-M). As Japan s real GDP is on he increase, in erms of household consumpion expendiures and personal consumpion expendiures(c), we assume ha Japanese s 9
income will be higher and Japanese will be more willing o buy producs from Taiwan. In erms of governmen consumpion and gross invesmen expendiures, Japan s governmen will be richer and more willing o buy Taiwan s producs. Therefore, Taiwan s expor o Japan will be higher. The las wo variables represen he hird counry effec in he regression model. x! is he represenaive for Taiwan s produc cos. We sugges ha Taiwanese companies impor maerials mainly from counry J, which is he se of he imporers in Taiwan. x! is lierally he raio of se J s weighed average price level o Japanese price level. The following are he seps we calculae he weighed average price level of he se J. Firs, in he able 5, we choose he op few counries on he rank of main imporers of Taiwan. Among hese imporers, we pick up 6 imporers which impor mainly similar indusry producs of Taiwan, which are elecrical machinery and machinery, and delee oher imporers which impor mainly oher unrelaed producs. The 6 imporers we selec o be se J are Japan, Korea, Germany, Singapore, he Neherlands, and Hong Kong. Second, we calculae he weigh of each counry based on he rade volume of each counry from 1999 o 2012. The weigh of each counry is he raio of he accumulaed oal impor o Taiwan from each counry o he accumulaed oal impor o Taiwan from hese six counries. (Table 8-1) Lasly, we use he price index of each counry o muliplier is own weigh we figured ou on he second sep; he produc is x!, he weighed average price index of se J. Because x! is he represenaive for Taiwan s produc cos, he negaive coefficien of x! here in our regression model means ha once he cos of Taiwanese produc rises, he oal expor from Taiwan o Japan falls. This regression resul is consisen wih our assumpion presened hereofore; ha is, 10
once he cos of Taiwanese producs go lower, he price of Taiwanese producs go lower, and Taiwanese producs would be more compeiive han oher counries producs in Japan s marke, resuling in he growh of Taiwan s oal expor o Japan. x! is he represenaive for Taiwan s main compeior s produc cos. Firs, we sugges ha Taiwan s main compeiors impor maerials mainly from counry K, which is he se of he imporers of Taiwan s main compeiors. x! is lierally he raio of se K s weighed average price level o Japanese price level. The following are he seps we calculae he weighed average price level of he se K. Firs, we search on he World Trade Alas (WTA) o selec 6 counries in Japan s op imporers whose Expor Similariy Index (ESI) beween hem and Taiwan are more han 30%. (Table 7) The 6 imporers we selec o be se K are America, Souh Korea, Malaysia, Germany, Thailand, and Singapore. Second, we calculae he weigh of each counry based on he rade volume of each counry from 1999 o 2012. The weigh of each counry is he raio of he accumulaed oal impor o Japan from each counry o he accumulaed oal impor o Japan from hese six counries. (Table 8-2) Las, we use he price index or WPI (able 9) of each counry o muliplier is own weigh we figured ou on he second sep; he produc is x!, he weighed average price index of se K. The value answers wheher Taiwan has he srengh over is compeiors in Japanese marke or no. The regression resul is consisen wih our assumpion presened hereofore; ha is, since he coefficien is posiive, i claims ha once he prices of Taiwan s compeiors producs rise, Taiwanese producs may be relaively cheaper and more aracive, resuling in he growh of Taiwan s oal expor o Japan. However, his resul is no saisically significan since he p-value is somehow big; his is perhaps due o he assumpion incompleeness of ESI. 11
To sum up, our discussion, he hird counry effec in hese wo variables is consisen wih our assumpion hereofore. 4.2 Elecrical Machinery According o he World Trade Alas (WTA), he goods ha Japan impors he mos from Taiwan is elecrical machinery in recen years, which shows ha he elecrical machinery can be a represenaive indusry o sudy. Table 12: Japan Impor Elecrical Machinery from Taiwan And since he ypes of goods conained in HS 85 are oo broad and may overlap he nex indusry we wan o discuss, we choose he real volume of elecronic producs, communicaion apparaus and household appliance expored o Japan from quarer one in 2004 o he quarer four in 2012(based on he caegory given by he saisics deparmen from he Minisry of Finance) o be he dependen variable. Keep he independen variables he same as he previous seing, he regression funcion is: logy = 6.29089 1.29791log x + 1 + 0.725257log x2 0.80295log x3 3.738246log x 4 And he saisical informaion from he sofware eviews is: Table 13: Regression Resul from Eviews of Elecrical Machinery (9) 12
From able 13 he R-squared is approximaely 60 percen, and he adjused R-squared is more han 50 percen as well, which saes ha he regression funcion is efficien in explaining he dependen variable. In addiion, since he p-values of x! and x! are oo big for us o believe ha hey are accurae enough o explain he dependen variable, he following demonsraion will be focused on x! and x!, which have relaively low p-values. x! is he real exchange rae of Japanese yen. And is coefficien is negaive, which means ha Taiwan will expor less elecrical machinery o Japan as long as he value of x! becomes bigger. To describe his in anoher way, he depreciaion of yen pus a pressure on Taiwanese expors, since he elecrical machinery from Japan will be cheaper and hus more compeiive han ours. x! is he raio of Japanese imporers expor price level o Japanese WPI. The value answers wheher Taiwan has he srengh over is compeiors in Japanese marke or no. Since he coefficien is posiive, i claims ha once he prices of elecrical machinery from Taiwanese compeiors rise, Taiwanese goods may be relaively cheaper and more aracive, and Taiwan will expor more hings o Japan as a resul. In ligh of he informaion provided above, he rade relaionship beween Taiwan and Japan is compeiion in he aspec of elecrical machinery. Take he compuer 13
producion indusry, which is a crucial one among he whole elecrical machinery, for example. According o he repor from Taiwan Insiue of Economic Research (Chen, 2013), he suppliers in he compuer producion indusry end o produce he goods in a mass and sandard way o reduce he cos. Such a kind of producion mehod shows ha he indusry is geing maure because of he improvemen of he echnology, and will evenually ransformed ino he complee price compeiion. 4.3 Machinery The second indusry ha we choose o be a represenaive one is machinery indusry. According o WTA, in he recen hree years, among Taiwan s oal expors o Japan, machinery expors ranks afer elecrical machinery expors. As he able shown below, he percenage is abou 7~8%. Table 14: Taiwan s Machinery Expors o Japan in he Recen Three Years Machinery includes meal working machine and power generaing machine ec. Given ha he dependen variable sands for Taiwan s machinery expors o Japan and oher independen variables are se he same as he previous seing, here liss he regression model: logy = 5.925889 + 0.971008logx + 1+ 0.907926log x2 0.384594log x3 1.156202log x (10) 4 14
Also, here shows he saisical informaion from he sofware eviews: Table 15: Regression Resul from Eviews of Machinery From he above able, firs, by looking a R-squared, we infer ha abou 75% of he dependen variable can be explained by his regression model. Second, we found ha only wo variables have heir p-values less han 0.05, which means ha only X! and X! are saisically significan o he model. Before elaboraing on he resul we found, we have o explain some sligh changes of he samples we picked. Firsly, i s abou X! which involves Taiwan s main machinery imporers. Originally we have Japan, Korea, Germany, Singapore, he Neherlands, and Hong Kong o be he sample counries, bu Hong Kong is deleed because based on he saisic from Naional Saisic ROC websie, we found ha from 2004 o las year, among hose who expor machinery goods o Taiwan, he accumulaed impors from Hong Kong only ranks he welfh. Therefore we don consider i o be one of Taiwan s main imporers. Secondly, i s abou X! which deals wih Japan s main machinery imporers. Here liss our original sample counries: he US, Korea, Malaysia, Germany, Thailand, and Singapore. However, we decided o delee Malaysia and Singapore since based on 15
WTA daabase, we found ha in he recen hree years, among hose who expor machinery goods o Japan, boh Malaysia and Singapore have a relaively small proporion (less han 2%) compared wih oher Japan s imporers. Thus, hey are no appropriae samples for our model. Nex, moving back o he regression model, as he elecrical machinery par, we focus on X! and X!. Unlike he previous par, he coefficien of X! is posiive in his par, which indicaes ha when Yen appreciae, Taiwan s machinery expor o Japan decrease. We use wo graphs o illusrae wha happened here. Figure 5: Exchange Rae (NTD/JPY) Figure 6: Taiwan s Machinery Expors o and Impors from Japan (uni: USD) 16
As you can see from graph A, unil 2012, Yen appreciaed as a whole. In addiion, graph B shows ha Taiwan s machinery expors o Japan decrease as a whole. On he oher hand, as he red line in graph B shows, Taiwan impors a lo more machinery goods from Japan han Taiwan expors. We herefore infer ha Taiwan impors los of inermediae machinery goods from Japan bu expors far less machinery producs o i. When Yen appreciae, Taiwan has o expend more o buy machinery pars from Japan. Since he cos increases, he price of machinery producs Taiwan sells also increases. Therefore, Japan s demand for Taiwan s goods declines as Taiwan s producs have no advanage in price. In shor, Taiwan depends a lo on Japanese machinery goods and Taiwan s machinery indusry is no so compeiive wih Japans as elecrical machinery indusry is. Tha s why he coefficien of X! is posiive. As for X!, like he explanaion in elecrical par, he coefficien is posiive. When he prices of Taiwan s compeiors machinery producs from rise, Taiwan has greaer chance o expor more o Japan. 5. Conclusion The resul shows ha he depreciaion of Japanese yen will lead o he increase in Taiwan s expor o Japan. And when i comes o separae indusry, i has differen 17
consequence. The depreciaion will make he expor of elecrical machinery decrease and make he machinery expor increase. Japan is Taiwan s bigges impor counry, he rade volume beween Taiwan and Japan shows huge defici (Figure 7). Therefore, if Japanese yen depreciaes, in he shor erm, we will expec he rade defici o reduce. Figure 7: Trade Defici beween Taiwan and Japan in 2012 0-10 - 20-30 - 40-50 - 60-70 - 80-69.4-61.9-38.5-27.8-21.3-20.2-18.4-13.4-16.3 100 million Daa from Cenral Bank of R.O.C The impac of yen depreciaion on differen counries depends on he counry s relaive posiion in Japan s produc supply chain. If Japan is he counry s supplier and he counry is Japan s las producs consumer, he counry will ge benefi from i. On he oher hand, if he counry has he similar expor srucure o Japan, i will become he vicim. Figure 8 shows Asia s counries share of rade o Japan. Taiwan has huge rade defici o Japan. So he depreciaion o Taiwan is beneficial. And Taiwan s companies will increase he invesmens in Japan or buy heir echniques. Alhough Korea has rade defici o Japan, i also has similar expor srucure o Japan. So i can be consider as Japan s compeior. And oher counries in Souh Asia have complemenary expor srucure o Japan. Therefore, hey will ge benefi from i. Figure 8: Asia s Counries Share of Trade o Japan 18
18 % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Malaysia Singapore Hong Kong Thailand Phillipine Taiwan Indonisia Korea China India Expor Impor Daa from Cenral Bank of R.O.C Table 1: Taiwan s oal expor o Japan Quarer JPY/USD TWD/USD JPY/TWD TW o JP nominal TW o JP expors (USD) nominal expors(jpy) JP- WPI original TW o JP real expors(jpy) 1999Q1 116.523 32.63873625 3.570083079 2,699,579,165.00 314,563,063,043.30 102.39 307,220,493,254.51 1999Q2 120.902 32.7107953 3.696088674 2,850,961,968.00 344,687,003,855.14 102.03 337,829,073,659.84 1999Q3 113.599 32.02441354 3.547262462 2,868,647,368.00 325,875,472,357.43 102.46 318,051,407,727.34 1999Q4 104.527 31.70446787 3.296917028 3,480,893,277.00 363,847,331,564.98 102.39 355,354,362,305.87 2000Q1 107.128 30.74072708 3.484888296 3,685,838,138.00 394,856,468,047.66 102.96 383,504,728,096.02 2000Q2 106.693 30.67931242 3.477685501 4,210,953,758.00 449,279,289,302.29 102.49 438,364,025,077.86 2000Q3 107.693 31.07179013 3.465941278 4,213,788,357.00 453,795,509,530.40 102.46 442,900,165,460.08 2000Q4 109.824 32.4457231 3.384852902 4,488,476,191.00 492,942,409,200.38 101.56 485,370,627,412.75 2001Q1 118.001 32.53178274 3.627252799 3,855,330,232.00 454,932,822,706.23 101.03 450,294,786,406.25 2001Q2 122.643 33.48017871 3.66315249 3,418,222,407.00 419,221,050,661.70 100.39 417,592,440,145.14 2001Q3 121.722 34.66035491 3.511850941 2,697,990,006.00 328,404,739,510.33 99.89 328,766,382,531.12 2001Q4 123.569 34.57994644 3.57342948 3,053,036,749.00 377,260,698,037.18 98.83 381,726,902,799.94 2002Q1 132.498 35.03529675 3.781843235 3,014,025,433.00 399,352,341,821.63 98.39 405,887,124,526.51 2002Q2 126.79 34.45326008 3.680058134 3,283,080,674.00 416,261,798,656.46 98.16 424,064,587,058.33 2002Q3 119.277 33.99080313 3.509096256 2,974,234,838.00 354,757,808,772.13 97.86 362,515,643,543.97 2002Q4 122.454 34.83650876 3.515105398 3,096,431,981.00 379,170,481,801.37 97.39 389,332,048,260.99 2003Q1 118.961 34.70546687 3.427730866 2,989,312,221.00 355,611,571,122.38 97.43 364,991,861,975.14 2003Q2 118.535 34.72086659 3.413941287 3,091,025,067.00 366,394,656,316.85 97.03 377,609,663,317.37 2003Q3 117.429 34.24885843 3.428698222 3,030,866,509.00 355,911,623,285.36 97.09 366,579,074,348.91 2003Q4 108.82 34.00145088 3.200451662 3,318,422,816.00 361,110,770,837.12 96.99 372,317,528,443.26 2004Q1 107.153 33.40659799 3.20754002 3,305,254,279.00 354,167,911,757.69 97.49 363,286,400,407.93 2004Q2 109.727 33.38440893 3.286773782 3,412,503,463.00 374,443,767,484.60 98.09 381,734,904,153.94 19
2004Q3 109.928 33.97694245 3.23537058 3,529,207,487.00 387,958,720,630.94 98.86 392,432,450,567.40 2004Q4 105.779 32.93604255 3.211648753 3,560,684,337.00 376,645,628,483.52 99.03 380,334,876,788.37 2005Q1 104.543 31.5394295 3.314676316 3,615,552,870.00 377,980,743,688.41 99.13 381,298,036,606.89 2005Q2 107.53 31.39907802 3.424622848 3,721,466,894.00 400,169,335,111.82 99.76 401,132,052,036.71 2005Q3 111.091 32.31876817 3.437352544 3,723,621,399.00 413,660,824,836.31 100.36 412,176,987,680.66 2005Q4 117.225 33.4569084 3.503760676 4,049,877,548.00 474,746,895,564.30 100.76 471,166,033,708.12 2006Q1 116.887 32.32228085 3.616298012 3,931,105,222.00 459,495,096,083.91 101.19 454,091,408,324.85 2006Q2 114.499 32.18418949 3.55761639 3,892,754,688.00 445,716,519,021.31 101.93 437,277,071,540.58 2006Q3 116.254 32.77600152 3.546924414 4,219,018,346.00 490,477,758,795.88 102.96 476,376,999,607.50 2006Q4 117.778 32.85108717 3.585208593 4,257,178,639.00 501,401,985,744.14 102.63 488,553,040,771.84 2007Q1 119.381 32.91632383 3.626802331 4,159,062,444.00 496,513,033,627.16 102.53 484,261,224,643.68 2007Q2 120.798 33.11264337 3.648092925 3,809,570,701.00 460,188,521,539.40 103.73 443,640,722,586.91 2007Q3 117.743 32.90868408 3.577870197 3,859,303,646.00 454,405,989,190.98 104.53 434,713,469,043.32 2007Q4 113.113 32.43392471 3.487490367 4,105,378,023.00 464,371,624,315.60 105.03 442,132,366,291.15 2008Q1 105.236 31.52875647 3.337778327 4,131,328,514.00 434,764,487,499.30 106.16 409,537,007,817.73 2008Q2 104.63 30.43904501 3.437361453 4,499,921,330.00 470,826,768,757.90 108.79 432,784,969,903.39 2008Q3 107.607 31.18498338 3.450603089 4,681,690,651.00 503,782,685,882.16 112.12 449,324,550,376.52 2008Q4 96.081 32.98343504 2.913007693 4,242,781,434.00 407,650,682,960.15 107.72 378,435,465,057.70 2009Q1 93.633 33.98234984 2.755342125 3,212,848,329.00 300,828,627,589.26 104.19 288,730,806,784.97 2009Q2 97.353 33.1313344 2.93839659 3,376,855,340.00 328,746,997,915.02 102.79 319,823,910,803.60 2009Q3 93.513 32.7970557 2.851262042 3,805,312,818.00 355,846,217,549.63 102.86 345,951,990,617.96 2009Q4 89.787 32.31529349 2.778467726 4,106,952,033.00 368,750,902,186.97 102.13 361,060,317,425.80 2010Q1 90.647 31.95558162 2.83665624 4,162,740,643.00 377,339,951,066.02 102.84 366,919,438,998.47 2010Q2 92.105 31.92921928 2.884661826 4,400,565,013.00 405,314,040,522.37 103.05 393,317,846,212.87 2010Q3 85.749 31.96614635 2.682494132 4,844,865,293.00 415,442,354,009.46 102.77 404,244,773,775.87 2010Q4 82.542 30.73827536 2.685316565 4,597,469,979.00 379,484,367,006.62 102.74 369,363,798,916.31 2011Q1 82.258 29.5119138 2.787281115 4,415,541,422.00 363,213,606,290.88 103.73 350,152,903,008.65 2011Q2 81.549 28.89879908 2.821881967 4,649,576,694.00 379,168,329,819.01 104.86 361,594,821,494.38 2011Q3 78.245 29.200253 2.679600071 4,623,228,138.00 361,744,485,657.81 104.97 344,617,019,774.99 2011Q4 77.324 30.26422463 2.554963854 4,539,422,000.00 351,006,266,728.00 103.90 337,830,863,068.34 2012Q1 79.303 29.72324633 2.668046387 4,196,662,906.00 332,807,958,434.52 104.08 319,761,681,816.41 2012Q2 80.081 29.65816321 2.700133499 4,684,868,786.00 375,168,977,251.67 104.01 360,704,718,057.56 Daa from Bureau of Foreign Trade of R.O.C and Inernaional Financial Saisics 2013.6 Table 2: Japan s nominal and real GDP Quarer JP- GDP(JPY) JP- CPI org. JP- CPI adj. JP- Real GDP (JPY) 20
1999Q1 115,743,915,493,004.00 103.2666667 102.8381743 1125495627574.80 1999Q2 116,196,774,316,361.00 103.6 103.1701245 1126263779369.49 1999Q3 116,046,679,677,916.00 103.3 102.8713693 1128075580928.43 1999Q4 116,620,484,180,953.00 103.3 102.8713693 1133653464327.59 2000Q1 118,555,890,046,009.00 102.6666667 102.2406639 1159576684297.41 2000Q2 118,747,558,199,400.00 102.9 102.473029 1158817684080.64 2000Q3 118,422,444,812,828.00 102.6666667 102.2406639 1158271477268.32 2000Q4 119,264,014,750,973.00 102.5333333 102.1078838 1168019650316.34 2001Q1 120,065,011,138,452.00 102.1666667 101.7427386 1180084326442.37 2001Q2 119,787,096,065,901.00 102.0666667 101.6431535 1178506292940.98 2001Q3 118,483,342,637,487.00 101.8 101.3775934 1168733037640.57 2001Q4 118,336,622,878,487.00 101.4333333 101.0124481 1171505344796.06 2002Q1 118,115,730,769,009.00 100.7333333 100.3153527 1177444205630.84 2002Q2 119,292,088,748,137.00 101.1666667 100.746888 1184077157673.03 2002Q3 120,065,786,110,769.00 101 100.5809129 1193723368510.54 2002Q4 120,539,419,192,046.00 100.9 100.4813278 1199620086937.69 2003Q1 119,898,442,088,492.00 100.5 100.0829876 1197990238114.70 2003Q2 121,346,940,346,453.00 100.9333333 100.5145228 1207257786637.02 2003Q3 121,853,322,257,904.00 100.7666667 100.3485477 1214300804836.04 2003Q4 123,147,901,014,048.00 100.6 100.1825726 1229234764098.14 2004Q1 124,451,404,451,392.00 100.3666667 99.95020747 1245134028262.43 2004Q2 124,358,407,773,341.00 100.6333333 100.2157676 1240906602905.57 2004Q3 124,551,950,859,758.00 100.6666667 100.2489627 1242426331010.00 2004Q4 124,244,561,840,050.00 101.1 100.6804979 1234047947718.93 2005Q1 124,523,001,893,848.00 100.4 99.98340249 1245436730429.01 2005Q2 126,102,595,468,933.00 100.5333333 100.1161826 1259562562500.53 2005Q3 126,576,853,527,884.00 100.3666667 99.95020747 1266399107448.53 2005Q4 126,811,270,154,250.00 100.3666667 99.95020747 1268744441513.38 2006Q1 127,369,925,198,444.00 100.2666667 99.85062241 1275604719615.40 2006Q2 127,865,757,486,739.00 100.7 100.2821577 1275059895494.21 2006Q3 127,803,834,698,693.00 100.9666667 100.5477178 1271076434565.24 2006Q4 129,441,876,185,950.00 100.7 100.2821577 1290776736213.75 2007Q1 130,733,505,047,468.00 100.1666667 99.75103734 1310597949935.10 2007Q2 130,886,199,593,041.00 100.6333333 100.2157676 1306043975733.81 2007Q3 130,419,466,265,298.00 100.8333333 100.4149378 1298805428509.78 2007Q4 131,545,976,025,061.00 101.2333333 100.813278 1304847720696.40 2008Q1 132,434,969,269,191.00 101.1333333 100.7136929 1314964881092.41 21
2008Q2 130,830,376,587,104.00 102 101.5767635 1287995128982.52 2008Q3 129,458,000,609,967.00 103 102.5726141 1262110766464.48 2008Q4 125,253,050,815,654.00 102.2666667 101.8423237 1229872280254.75 2009Q1 120,240,904,855,325.00 101 100.5809129 1195464441837.18 2009Q2 122,262,532,640,434.00 101 100.5809129 1215563959007.61 2009Q3 122,296,281,434,888.00 100.7 100.2821577 1219521839862.96 2009Q4 124,543,851,149,089.00 100.2 99.78423237 1248131575471.16 2010Q1 126,354,086,485,382.00 100.1333333 99.71784232 1267116130283.66 2010Q2 127,622,091,190,782.00 100.2666667 99.85062241 1278130151968.85 2010Q3 129,350,404,453,426.00 99.7 99.28630705 1302802050872.44 2010Q4 128,878,371,314,998.00 99.9 99.48547718 1295449094382.49 2011Q1 126,552,129,411,058.00 99.6 99.18672199 1275897891066.98 2011Q2 125,469,168,095,694.00 99.83333333 99.41908714 1262022934518.45 2011Q3 128,658,929,153,726.00 99.83333333 99.41908714 1294106925127.22 2011Q4 128,787,974,544,075.00 99.6 99.18672199 1298439669725.66 2012Q1 130,722,130,453,781.00 99.9 99.48547718 1313982042015.40 2012Q2 130,429,215,917,029.00 100.0333333 99.61825726 1309290279740.25 2012Q3 129,217,884,187,204.00 99.43333333 99.02074689 1304957680569.73 2012Q4 129,267,932,399,424.00 99.36666667 98.95435685 1306338967974.72 Daa from Organizaion for Economic Cooperaion and Developmen (OECD) hp://www.oecd.org/ Table 3: Toal Expors Model 22
Table 4: The Original Daa of Regression Model Year/ Quarer Y:Taiwan s oal expor o Japan (real) X1: JPY/TWD (real) X2:Japan s real GDP (JPY) X3: X4: 1999Q1 307,220,493,254.51 3.124490138 1,125,495,627,574.80 19.55584898 66.12899627 1999Q2 337,829,073,659.84 3.242749866 1,126,263,779,369.49 19.62648062 68.06236391 1999Q3 318,051,407,727.34 3.122539687 1,128,075,580,928.43 18.4895554 63.83350143 1999Q4 355,354,362,305.87 2.940857892 1,133,653,464,327.59 17.1729046 59.17361468 2000Q1 383,504,728,096.02 3.063193304 1,159,576,684,297.41 17.08300111 60.19091974 2000Q2 438,364,025,077.86 3.098269975 1,158,817,684,080.64 16.58007374 59.9544299 2000Q3 442,900,165,460.08 3.118838865 1,158,271,477,268.32 16.51685757 60.29614839 2000Q4 485,370,627,412.75 3.106103516 1,168,019,650,316.34 16.62631897 61.75403701 2001Q1 450,294,786,406.25 3.267989377 1,180,084,326,442.37 18.55331528 67.26178832 2001Q2 417,592,440,145.14 3.310543972 1,178,506,292,940.98 18.62805592 69.41658743 2001Q3 328,766,382,531.12 3.21474212 1,168,733,037,640.57 18.7755851 69.09375771 2001Q4 381,726,902,799.94 3.220761599 1,171,505,344,796.06 19.01483672 70.11591903 2002Q1 405,887,124,526.51 3.426589841 1,177,444,205,630.84 20.10522202 74.96960899 2002Q2 424,064,587,058.33 3.394255116 1,184,077,157,673.03 20.23072488 73.00786648 2002Q3 362,515,643,543.97 3.254580301 1,193,723,368,510.54 20.12797544 70.11104162 2002Q4 389,332,048,260.99 3.321323671 1,199,620,086,937.69 21.01861344 72.67535069 2003Q1 364,991,861,975.14 3.295497717 1,197,990,238,114.70 21.78053173 72.20969626 2003Q2 377,609,663,317.37 3.256076167 1,207,257,786,637.02 22.57167549 73.06203075 2003Q3 366,579,074,348.91 3.261843484 1,214,300,804,836.04 22.1335739 72.15206429 2003Q4 372,317,528,443.26 3.064299574 1,229,234,764,098.14 21.50930819 68.24488986 2004Q1 363,286,400,407.93 3.157693066 1,245,134,028,262.43 22.0858841 68.64816903 2004Q2 381,734,904,153.94 3.301435919 1,240,906,602,905.57 22.10209585 70.24458611 2004Q3 392,432,450,567.40 3.33718028 1,242,426,331,010.00 22.43820293 70.17097976 2004Q4 380,334,876,788.37 3.278529135 1,234,047,947,718.93 22.75184218 68.91143068 2005Q1 381,298,036,606.89 3.300486508 1,245,436,730,429.01 22.77229344 68.9201244 2005Q2 401,132,052,036.71 3.384356053 1,259,562,562,500.53 22.76904396 70.3495602 2005Q3 412,176,987,680.66 3.451044609 1,266,399,107,448.53 23.07967681 72.12850824 2005Q4 471,166,033,708.12 3.544628796 1,268,744,441,513.38 23.78507692 75.87657525 2006Q1 454,091,408,324.85 3.592439472 1,275,604,719,615.40 24.16262993 76.30996766 2006Q2 437,277,071,540.58 3.654366263 1,275,059,895,494.21 24.64542414 76.17815834 2006Q3 476,376,999,607.50 3.762375877 1,271,076,434,565.24 25.17268241 77.58295612 2006Q4 488,553,040,771.84 3.775800955 1,290,776,736,213.75 25.62523129 79.03370284 2007Q1 484,261,224,643.68 3.8086334 1,310,597,949,935.10 26.44014189 81.71543897 23
2007Q2 443,640,722,586.91 3.945353156 1,306,043,975,733.81 27.42222384 83.54653715 2007Q3 434,713,469,043.32 3.895474205 1,298,805,428,509.78 27.21278825 81.69745034 2007Q4 442,132,366,291.15 3.85824536 1,304,847,720,696.40 27.60095459 80.58888223 2008Q1 409,537,007,817.73 3.679075266 1,314,964,881,092.41 26.56963927 76.93836892 2008Q2 432,784,969,903.39 3.82929504 1,287,995,128,982.52 27.39908106 77.38921289 2008Q3 449,324,550,376.52 3.816124863 1,262,110,766,464.48 26.66787175 76.95625842 2008Q4 378,435,465,057.70 2.996432686 1,229,872,280,254.75 20.83303491 64.98609549 2009Q1 288,730,806,784.97 2.790236197 1,195,464,441,837.18 20.28207978 63.69929329 2009Q2 319,823,910,803.60 3.021222241 1,215,563,959,007.61 22.4060614 68.35020863 2009Q3 345,951,990,617.96 3.041215569 1,219,521,839,862.96 22.62397387 66.94189516 2009Q4 361,060,317,425.80 2.966339774 1,248,131,575,471.16 22.6466112 65.99424528 2010Q1 366,919,438,998.47 3.101879442 1,267,116,130,283.66 21.86816779 66.2234867 2010Q2 393,317,846,212.87 3.209770733 1,278,130,151,968.85 21.17138799 67.13341862 2010Q3 404,244,773,775.87 2.982105474 1,302,802,050,872.44 20.11015099 63.17377177 2010Q4 369,363,798,916.31 2.977729018 1,295,449,094,382.49 20.47851984 63.02159163 2011Q1 350,152,903,008.65 3.139465619 1,275,897,891,066.98 21.06480553 64.60145047 2011Q2 361,594,821,494.38 3.208739802 1,262,022,934,518.45 21.8123716 65.52647098 2011Q3 344,617,019,774.99 3.568426138 1,294,106,925,127.22 20.6794746 62.75921862 2011Q4 337,830,863,068.34 2.941120214 1,298,439,669,725.66 19.83587025 61.09188957 2012Q1 319,761,681,816.41 3.053808201 1,313,982,042,015.40 20.31648929 62.87568738 2012Q2 360,704,718,057.56 3.062098297 1,309,290,279,740.25 20.05256095 63.15463827 Table 5: Taiwan s Top 20 Impor Counries (1999Q1 o 2012Q2) Rank Counry Impor( million dollar) Percen 1 JAPAN 547,726,206,657 22.3 2 UNITED STATES 298,083,336,737 12.136 3 CHINA 281,024,328,322 11.442 4 KOREA,REPUBLIC OF 159,813,244,125 6.507 5 SAUDI ARABIA 103,504,740,776 4.214 6 GERMANY,FEDERAL 84,428,949,299 3.437 REPUBLIC OF 7 MALAYSIA 76,645,858,569 3.121 8 AUSTRALIA 73,477,242,999 2.992 9 SINGAPORE 67,814,475,247 2.761 10 INDONESIA 62,607,094,828 2.549 11 KUWAIT 54,625,087,096 2.224 24
12 THAILAND 40,506,567,545 1.649 13 PHILIPPINES 36,298,617,193 1.478 14 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 30,605,946,853 1.246 15 NETHERLANDS 29,606,073,408 1.205 16 IRAN(ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) 29,088,033,917 1.184 17 FRANCE 28,670,167,703 1.167 18 HONG KONG 25,232,974,078 1.027 19 RUSSIA 25,040,073,838 1.019 20 UNITED KINGDOM 22,753,014,733 0.926 Daa from Bureau of Foreign Trade of R.O.C Table 6: The Exchange Rae of Each Counry Year TWD/JPY USD/JPY KRW/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/JPY SGD/JPY MYR/JYP PHP/JYP HK/JPY 1999Q1 0.280105526 0.008581997 10.23020348 0.005252182 0.007646559 0.014612222 0.032611587 0.332108968 0.06649045 1999Q2 0.270556279 0.008271162 9.821119584 0.005144663 0.007824519 0.014165357 0.031430415 0.3142468 0.064112532 1999Q3 0.28190753 0.008802894 10.52087606 0.005493006 0.008397961 0.014883083 0.033450999 0.345409731 0.068322198 1999Q4 0.303313669 0.009566906 11.2144709 0.005864513 0.009222498 0.016013502 0.036354243 0.386754937 0.074331672 2000Q1 0.286953244 0.009334628 10.50659025 0.005806138 0.009455978 0.015834485 0.035471585 0.379412167 0.072632738 2000Q2 0.287547566 0.009372686 10.45742457 0.006110991 0.010038147 0.016138641 0.035616207 0.392537467 0.073010101 2000Q3 0.288521911 0.009285655 10.35564986 0.006286388 0.01027922 0.016090399 0.035285487 0.417764695 0.072397154 2000Q4 0.295433813 0.009105478 10.61738782 0.00628278 0.0104713 0.015887541 0.034600816 0.448462995 0.070998446 2001Q1 0.275690738 0.008474504 10.77134092 0.00581351 0.009186363 0.0148314 0.032203117 0.417301548 0.06609266 2001Q2 0.272988909 0.008153747 10.65352283 0.005732084 0.009327887 0.014787255 0.030984239 0.413699382 0.06358292 2001Q3 0.284750127 0.008215442 10.62461182 0.005709732 0.009217726 0.014606918 0.031218679 0.428468149 0.064069492 2001Q4 0.279843217 0.008092645 10.44582379 0.005608203 0.009031391 0.014770965 0.030752049 0.419500576 0.063117233 2002Q1 0.264421325 0.007547284 9.959757883 0.005290646 0.008611451 0.01383397 0.028679678 0.38681716 0.058861266 2002Q2 0.271734838 0.007887057 9.999124537 0.005394747 0.008573231 0.01422791 0.029970818 0.397591818 0.06151116 2002Q3 0.284973659 0.008383846 10.03336771 0.005407581 0.008526371 0.014735001 0.031858615 0.431820049 0.065385615 2002Q4 0.284486491 0.008166332 9.962867689 0.005193787 0.008166332 0.014437068 0.031032061 0.434815523 0.0636865 2003Q1 0.29173819 0.008406116 10.10667362 0.005245417 0.0078345 0.01466503 0.031943242 0.454572507 0.065556499 2003Q2 0.292916578 0.008436327 10.16897119 0.00521365 0.007423968 0.014748949 0.032058042 0.446318809 0.065789289 2003Q3 0.291655881 0.008515784 10.00313381 0.005288302 0.007562016 0.014916531 0.032359979 0.464759415 0.066369182 2003Q4 0.312455899 0.009189487 10.85736997 0.00538504 0.007719169 0.015845127 0.034920051 0.507777063 0.071276726 2004Q1 0.311765401 0.00933245 10.92926003 0.005076853 0.00746596 0.015816947 0.035463309 0.522301755 0.072578463 2004Q2 0.304249719 0.009113527 10.59138589 0.005039781 0.007564228 0.015509856 0.034631403 0.509549458 0.071049058 2004Q3 0.309083604 0.009096863 10.49918128 0.005003275 0.007441234 0.015532561 0.034568081 0.509424654 0.07094947 2004Q4 0.311366552 0.009453672 10.33634275 0.005067168 0.007298235 0.015662529 0.035923955 0.532072529 0.073546419 2005Q1 0.301688583 0.009565442 9.781840965 0.005060119 0.007298432 0.01564562 0.036348679 0.526160527 0.074588128 25
2005Q2 0.292002958 0.00929973 9.372240305 0.005012555 0.007393286 0.015425122 0.035338975 0.508422146 0.0724263 2005Q3 0.29092157 0.009001629 9.272308288 0.005040912 0.007381336 0.015078989 0.033951445 0.504435403 0.069936659 2005Q4 0.285407621 0.008530604 8.841228407 0.004879505 0.007174238 0.01440091 0.032217246 0.46599872 0.066149143 2006Q1 0.276525883 0.008555271 8.247598108 0.00488506 0.00710943 0.013928238 0.031890019 0.443883979 0.06636324 2006Q2 0.281087079 0.008733701 8.29485847 0.004786068 0.006952026 0.013884284 0.031860831 0.456026312 0.067753139 2006Q3 0.281934398 0.008601855 8.216181809 0.00459339 0.006752456 0.013584909 0.031585436 0.442022353 0.066890888 2006Q4 0.278923799 0.00849055 7.966793459 0.004432067 0.006580176 0.013233937 0.030780048 0.422586561 0.066059309 2007Q1 0.27572498 0.008376542 7.866762718 0.004280413 0.006391302 0.012834845 0.029304933 0.407135964 0.06540125 2007Q2 0.274115825 0.008278283 7.692701866 0.004172255 0.006142486 0.012620518 0.028381462 0.388518401 0.064700299 2007Q3 0.279495886 0.008493074 7.876425775 0.004204072 0.006174465 0.012887702 0.029442714 0.390200848 0.066296935 2007Q4 0.286739143 0.008840717 8.15158293 0.004323111 0.006100095 0.01285617 0.029675882 0.381155146 0.068748361 2008Q1 0.299600483 0.009502452 9.089161504 0.004808241 0.006338135 0.013391488 0.030651741 0.389162008 0.074068443 2008Q2 0.290920816 0.009557488 9.723865048 0.004864762 0.006116793 0.013057122 0.030706617 0.410978603 0.074545223 2008Q3 0.289804412 0.009293076 9.91319338 0.00492533 0.006198482 0.012980506 0.031035156 0.417290559 0.072479795 2008Q4 0.343287799 0.010407885 14.18390733 0.006661046 0.0079204 0.01547878 0.037106539 0.504108209 0.080699271 2009Q1 0.362931337 0.010679995 15.11395555 0.007443957 0.008212916 0.016148509 0.038724781 0.511783348 0.082816244 2009Q2 0.340321658 0.010271897 13.16222407 0.006635646 0.007539572 0.015128419 0.036467383 0.491838848 0.079617475 2009Q3 0.350721886 0.0106937 13.22892004 0.006523157 0.007474897 0.015386401 0.037644675 0.514887849 0.082883307 2009Q4 0.359910605 0.01113747 12.98811632 0.006816132 0.007540067 0.015530088 0.037885425 0.520879958 0.086326528 2010Q1 0.352527735 0.011031805 12.60881221 0.007071387 0.007975995 0.015476519 0.037200606 0.507763369 0.085647254 2010Q2 0.346661085 0.010857174 12.65350415 0.007285164 0.008544596 0.015103415 0.03519267 0.494096897 0.084457956 2010Q3 0.372787395 0.011661944 13.77652218 0.007521954 0.009026344 0.01582137 0.036806999 0.527961125 0.090628851 2010Q4 0.372395573 0.012115044 13.71423033 0.007668823 0.008928788 0.015790345 0.037734004 0.528585416 0.094045052 2011Q1 0.358772567 0.012156872 13.59634321 0.007585888 0.008886674 0.015537293 0.037046215 0.532435712 0.094669617 2011Q2 0.354373433 0.012262566 13.27235159 0.007516953 0.008522483 0.015205991 0.03701515 0.530301013 0.095370064 2011Q3 0.373190019 0.012780369 13.87611988 0.00796217 0.009022941 0.015662769 0.038621607 0.546383381 0.099597418 2011Q4 0.39139497 0.012932595 14.80443329 0.008225131 0.009595986 0.016650331 0.040765718 0.562026873 0.100594037 2012Q1 0.374806077 0.012609863 14.25023013 0.008032483 0.009621326 0.015941494 0.038592524 0.542801106 0.097848337 2012Q2 0.370352059 0.012487357 14.38620896 0.007892009 0.009740138 0.015785455 0.038893442 0.534157842 0.096910212 Daa from Cenral Bank of R.O.C hp://www.cbc.gov.w/mp1.hml Table 7: Expor Similariy Index (ESI) from 1999 o 2012 Year TW- US TW- Souh Korea TW- Malaysia TW- Germany TW- Thailand TW- Singapore 1999 45.14 55.57 50.18 32.37 56.58 62.77 2000 49.62 56.24 53.38 33.45 57.44 71.37 2001 48.03 56.89 52.15 37.31 57.35 68.81 26
2002 45.53 61.43 48.95 37.35 57.94 64.45 2003 43.17 63.01 49.99 39.04 56.98 59.68 2004 43.55 61.19 50.24 39.16 58.94 53.78 2005 41.06 58.76 45.62 37.11 55.36 45.18 2006 39.42 54.74 43.54 35.98 51.22 42.40 2007 36.59 57.93 38.37 32.81 49.05 43.89 2008 36.14 57.23 32.66 33.77 45.65 43.04 2009 32.82 55.29 37.05 29.24 44.99 45.80 2010 35.01 53.85 36.06 29.69 45.18 42.39 2011 33.23 47.44 30.12 28.46 43.71 39.71 2012 32.57 46.20 24.87 27.58 43.21 37.80 Average ESI 40.14 56.13 42.37 33.81 51.68 51.50 Daa from Bureau of Foreign Trade of R.O.C hp://cus93.rade.gov.w/fsci/ Table 8-1: The weigh of counry J Year Japan expor o Korea expor o Germany expor Singapore expor Neherland Hong Kong expor o TW(USD) TW(USD) o TW(USD) o TW(USD) expor o TW(USD) TW(USD) 1999 30,590,096,163.00 7,192,677,468.00 5,312,433,737.00 3,312,032,192.00 1,705,675,614.00 2,091,879,741.00 2000 38,556,954,971.00 8,987,938,801.00 5,541,894,609.00 5,013,648,402.00 2,087,287,415.00 2,185,324,672.00 2001 25,932,813,711.00 6,731,817,315.00 4,274,025,335.00 3,401,625,310.00 1,540,922,496.00 2,050,054,496.00 2002 27,362,757,873.00 7,741,326,481.00 4,448,077,588.00 3,562,201,202.00 1,469,377,082.00 1,914,646,366.00 2003 32,718,847,027.00 8,738,052,235.00 4,986,096,169.00 3,878,975,181.00 1,306,962,874.00 1,917,038,834.00 2004 43,715,710,611.00 11,661,956,001.00 5,851,121,260.00 4,330,669,813.00 2,202,540,324.00 2,309,052,978.00 2005 46,052,601,907.00 13,239,023,650.00 6,180,054,703.00 4,960,609,710.00 2,068,687,250.00 2,109,605,326.00 2006 46,283,618,485.00 14,999,435,040.00 6,135,030,194.00 5,105,539,273.00 2,342,514,262.00 1,880,519,456.00 2007 45,936,063,947.00 15,158,216,078.00 7,069,816,962.00 4,791,649,247.00 2,776,776,101.00 1,824,800,396.00 2008 46,507,203,803.00 13,168,228,019.00 7,474,068,301.00 4,825,113,572.00 2,353,495,936.00 1,492,713,200.00 2009 36,219,354,001.00 10,506,681,647.00 5,672,734,993.00 4,809,159,584.00 1,862,737,305.00 1,122,506,419.00 2010 51,916,721,969.00 16,058,628,644.00 8,263,905,704.00 7,636,054,154.00 3,199,873,126.00 1,627,580,248.00 2011 52,199,118,529.00 17,860,156,860.00 9,427,438,766.00 7,953,091,060.00 2,935,999,956.00 1,675,422,784.00 2012 47,573,055,614.00 15,073,110,760.00 7,753,884,210.00 8,105,749,922.00 3,622,888,473.00 2,658,796,738.00 Toal 571,564,918,611.00 167,117,248,999.00 88,390,582,531.00 71,686,118,622.00 31,475,738,214.00 26,859,941,654.00 Weigh 0.597187519 0.174608924 0.092353031 0.074899725 0.032886759 0.028064042 Daa from Bureau of Foreign Trade of R.O.C hp://cus93.rade.gov.w/fsci/ 27
Table 8-2: The weigh of counry K Year US expor o Korea expor o Malaysia expor Germany expor Thailand expor Singapore expor Japan(USD) Japan(USD) o Japan(USD) o Japan(USD) o Japan(USD) o Japan(USD) 1999 67,320 16,195 10,975 11,538 8,895 5,453 2000 72,136 20,443 14,484 12,726 10,590 6,430 2001 63,177 17,212 12,859 12,397 10,373 5,389 2002 57,848 15,508 11,197 12,440 10,520 5,007 2003 58,931 17,931 12,599 14,228 11,896 5,446 2004 62,563 22,068 14,125 17,095 14,118 6,295 2005 64,199 24,420 14,711 17,886 15,590 6,710 2006 68,011 27,319 15,472 18,451 16,878 7,479 2007 70,939 27,290 17,397 19,430 18,307 7,044 2008 77,667 29,501 23,241 20,888 20,813 7,893 2009 58,959 21,978 16,727 16,759 16,023 6,105 2010 67,443 28,659 22,723 19,294 21,041 8,154 2011 74,485 39,835 30,488 23,335 24,522 8,678 2012 76,237 40,515 32,865 24,713 23,641 8,761 Toal 939,915 348,873 249,863 241,180 223,206 94,844 Weigh 0.448031 0.166298 0.119102 0.114964 0.106396 0.045209 Daa absraced from World Trade Alas Table 9: The price index or WPI of counry K (base period: 2005) Quarer US- Expor price org. KR- Expor Price org. MS- WPI org. GM- Expor Price org. TL- WPI org. SG- Expor Price org. 1999Q1 91.91 120.52 80.85 94.07 76.48 76.14 1999Q2 91.85 120.28 79.94 94.38 75.72 78.71 1999Q3 92.01 120.55 80.98 94.88 75.74 80.47 1999Q4 92.57 123.92 83.42 95.54 77.01 83.39 2000Q1 93.19 121.15 83.27 96.77 78.04 85.03 2000Q2 93.66 118.54 83.68 97.73 78.52 86.94 2000Q3 93.63 121.96 84.31 98.47 79.89 89.02 2000Q4 93.79 118.53 84 99.13 80.47 89.89 2001Q1 93.72 121.91 84.59 98.97 80.18 86.62 2001Q2 93.22 119.5 84.75 99.43 81.79 88.27 28